Military Review

Lessons from the DPRK. Replica of Alexander Privalov

15
Quite a lot of people in the capitals of three continents were expecting 15 of April with considerable anxiety: it was assumed that on this day - the birthday of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung - the launch of the North Korean Musudan ballistic missile was scheduled. The reliability of this carrier is a big question, as is the ability of the DPRK specialists to attach a nuclear warhead to it. But the rocket, it seems, has a range of almost 4000 kilometers. That is, theoretically speaking, within its reach, not only South Korea and Japan, but almost all of China and Russia almost to the Urals. Fear on this day and another nuclear test.


Neither the rocket launch, nor the nuclear explosion, fortunately, April 15 did not happen, but serious tensions around the DPRK persist. On the Korean Peninsula, a war can really begin, which no one wants. The hope that the current aggravation is far from being the first one will resolve without much blood, of course, is, and quite good. But at least two lessons from the current situation would still be worth extracting.

The first lesson is that the world has changed a lot over the past decades, and the most familiar stereotypes lose their firmness. The same nuclear blackmail conducted by the North Korean leaders managed to tire the whole world. Each time the same scenario: the threats from the DPRK and the negotiations following them, alleviating the intensity of the confrontation until the next aggravation. Therefore, even now, when 30 in March, Pyongyang declared that it was “entering a state of war” with South Korea, most experts regarded this as a new turn of the same annoying merry-go-round. I repeat: maybe it is. But in the old storyline, new features are noticeable. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un immediately rejected any economic demands and negotiations, and April 9 took an unprecedented step: stopped accessing labor to the Kaeson industrial zone, the main source of currency for North Korea, and issued a warning to foreigners in South Korea In addition, the DPRK immediately declared its ability to reach the territory of the United States and Canada with missiles. Fried smell is somehow noticeably stronger than usual.

Experts point out that the specific differences of the present case from all previous ones are indeed numerous. To begin with, the leadership in North Korea has changed relatively recently, and most recently in China. The livelihood of the DPRK depends entirely on China; if China had not fed North Korea for decades, it would have long since lost its ability to show teeth. But then, apparently, there would be a reunification of the two Koreas, which China cannot allow, since there are American military bases in South Korea, and in the event of a merger, the buffer zone vital for China will actually be lost. Now the relationship of the patron with the client is very spoiled. Young Kim tried to demonstrate his independence to China, in Beijing this was not approved. The new Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, very annoyed the other day about the heating conflict: “No one should be allowed to plunge the region and even the whole world into chaos, based on his selfish goals.” Irritation is easy to understand. The United States has declared the Pacific region a strategic priority and is increasingly working to limit Chinese influence there. And so the Chinese "buffer zone" at such a clearly inappropriate moment unfolds an unreasonable scandal, the result of which could be this very destruction zone. How can Beijing not be angry. In short, the traditionally smooth completion of the current scandal is now guaranteed no one.

The second lesson in the same vein, but even more disturbing. Here, the DPRK announced that Tokyo could become the first target of its nuclear attack. If this, God forbid, happens, the second in stories atomic bombing will again fall on Japan. But observers, discussing the adequacy of the Korean leader, the interests of big players and other geopolitics, almost do not discuss this perspective. Few believe in the possibility of a nuclear conflict. And why, exactly? And by inertia. For half a century, it has become an axiom that a country that has the intelligence to acquire nuclear weaponsit is enough to understand that this is nothing more than a weapon of deterrence, and that it is not necessary to put it into practice. It would be wonderful, but only countries that can get an atomic bomb, with each decade more. And today, not all countries possessing a bomb can, with a light heart, guarantee that they will not go so far beyond the limits of prudence. And who will have a bomb tomorrow or the day after tomorrow — how can I vouch for them? With this you need to do something, to know what.
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  1. andrei332809
    andrei332809 April 17 2013 07: 01 New
    +1
    it seems like the truth, but I think, all the same, the usual blackmail, feed us, or you’ll spoil all your nerves. And as for the adequacy of owners of nuclear weapons, the first are the most inappropriate
  2. smart ass
    smart ass April 17 2013 07: 07 New
    +5
    I propose to introduce the word MUSUDAN into the lexicon! For example .... THIS IS A POOR Musuuuuudan !! or ... MUSUDAN COME TO HIM!))
    All as a joke, because in the serious north I can’t take it anymore.
  3. fenix57
    fenix57 April 17 2013 07: 08 New
    +3
    Hello! "The new Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, recently very irritatedly commented on the escalating conflict:" No one should be allowed to plunge the region and even the whole world into chaos, based on their selfish goals "- One manager directly expressed his opinion, it is a pity that this was not GDP.
    And we, well, as the "leader" of the DPRK and the initiator of the current situation, it would not hurt to listen to the words from the PRC. hi
  4. UFO
    UFO April 17 2013 07: 09 New
    +2
    It would be nice if the DPRK had a "guidance" guidance system so that their missiles would not be "blown away" into our territory. laughing
  5. VadimSt
    VadimSt April 17 2013 07: 18 New
    +3
    Korea Central Telegraph Agency Statement.
    "The DPRK is not against dialogue, but it does not intend to enter into humiliating negotiations with the party that threatens nuclear weapons. This dialogue is possible only at the stage when the DPRK acquires sufficient nuclear deterrence to counter the threat of a nuclear war from the United States, Washington will not abandon its hostile politics, "the statement said.


    There is something to learn, even with the clear dominance of the strength and power of the enemy.
  6. Ragnarek
    Ragnarek April 17 2013 07: 24 New
    +2
    The most paradoxical thing is that the presence of nuclear weapons guarantees any country security from the United States and NATO. So Iran is watching with interest the DPRK and if everything gets away with it, it will work even harder in this direction.
    1. Vanek
      Vanek April 17 2013 07: 25 New
      +1
      Quote: Ragnarek
      the presence of nuclear weapons guarantees any country security from the US and NATO


      What is true is true.
  7. svp67
    svp67 April 17 2013 07: 50 New
    +3
    Quote: Vanek
    What is true is true.


    But has the world become better from this? ...
    1. aksakal
      aksakal April 17 2013 08: 58 New
      +4
      Quote: svp67
      But has the world become better from this? ...

      - rhetorical question. Nuclear weapons, like colt, are a great equalizer. The world won’t become better, but the world in which someone got the first colt and even used it a couple of times, and then simply “wetted” a bunch of opponents with physical strength (well, waving the colt), due to which it can become a complete dominant, is worse than that there simply cannot be anything in the world. A world in which many people own a colt and therefore somehow equalized is, of course, dangerous, but not as vile and thin as a world with one dominant. Of the two evils, one must be chosen. A world in which only a couple with a colt, but at the same time those with a colt do not bow and rock, do not bully and do not “urinate” is utopian. This has never been and never will be. Always among those who have a colt in the absence of one of the others, there is someone who cannot resist the temptation to realize the opportunities provided by this colt and thereby encourage those others to own the colt. Therefore, let's walk on the earth, know that people are weak against their weaknesses, and act on this basis, and not soar in the clouds. The clouds are good, but far away and you will not be fed
      1. arkady149
        arkady149 April 17 2013 09: 35 New
        +2
        Quote: aksakal
        Nuclear weapons, like colt, are a great equalizer.
        .
        So the words of Vito Corleone come to mind: "With a kind word and a revolver it is important to achieve much more than just a kind word."
  8. Ragnarek
    Ragnarek April 17 2013 08: 07 New
    +3
    Quote: svp67
    Quote: Vanek
    What is true is true.


    But has the world become better from this? ...

    As I understand it, Iran doesn’t give a damn about the whole world, it’s important to ensure its security. That Libya took care of the world and where is Libya?
  9. awg75
    awg75 April 17 2013 08: 14 New
    +1
    in general, these crazy fanatics should be stopped hard already, otherwise they will really blow something up ... they don’t feel sorry for them, but they don’t want to strain at Juche because of ideas
    1. aksakal
      aksakal April 17 2013 09: 10 New
      -1
      Quote: awg75
      in general, these crazy fanatics should be stopped hard already, otherwise they will really blow something up ... they don’t feel sorry for them, but they don’t want to strain at Juche because of ideas

      - do not stop those. The fact that it is necessary to stop others pushing the idea of ​​"demo-heh" - somehow think of a lack of time? Do you really like the ideas of demo heh? You don’t want to strain because of Juche’s ideas, but have nothing against the ideas of “demo-heh”?
      1. aksakal
        aksakal April 17 2013 14: 11 New
        0
        Minus minus, and justify your minus weak?
        Okay, we’ll develop this topic, do not care about your minuses and pluses, I always said and say what I think. Let’s paraphrase this:
        Quote: awg75
        in general, these crazy fanatics should be stopped hard already, otherwise they will really blow something up ... they don’t feel sorry for them, but they don’t want to strain at Juche because of ideas

        like this: In general, it’s time to harshly stop these Russian fanatics, otherwise they will really blow up something! They don’t feel sorry for them, but to strain because of the Russian idea to keep the conquered territory by force, which they themselves cannot really master, like a dog in the manger, I myself will not give it to others, because of the Russian idea " about some great mission for planet Earth " absolutely do not want to! "
        What? I do not like? And now, for your answer, I have only two options - either to prove that Koreans do not have a parve to their analogue of what Russians are entitled to, which is not provable without sliding into chauvinism, or even into racism, or to prove that Juche It is dangerous and expansionist (that is, seeking to distribute itself at all costs on the entire planet, like the ideas of Sharia or "demo-he"), which is also unprovable, because Juche was invented by the Koreans exclusively for their own domestic consumption. Actually, the North Koreans defend the right to "consume" the Juche ideas. And why do you want to stop them? Stop yourself for a start, and then we'll talk about the DPRK.
  10. Suhov
    Suhov April 17 2013 09: 42 New
    +1
    The first lesson is that the world has changed a lot over the past decades, and the most familiar stereotypes are losing their stability ...

    The second lesson is in the same vein, but even more alarming ...

    The third lesson is that the basic law of nature does not change:
    If you have a colt, they reckon with you,
    Weak (Yugoslavia, Libya ...) - beat!
  11. dc120mm
    dc120mm April 17 2013 11: 06 New
    +3
    Interestingly, but I think there will be no warrior, there will be no hope.
    1. fatty
      fatty April 17 2013 20: 39 New
      0
      the most worried, in the word warriors, the last letter is Y, and the word HOPE is written with a soft sign at the end.
  12. darksoul
    darksoul April 17 2013 17: 56 New
    +1
    oh and I like the North Koreans .... proud suicides. They do everything beautifully .... even the Americans do not know what to do when such an aggressive pug attacks laughing

    They knock out humanitarian aid, as it was repeatedly, I think there’s no talk of war and can’t go, because Kim is not a suicide ... he understands how it will end
  13. SEM
    SEM April 17 2013 19: 57 New
    0
    Lets wait until the business ends))), otherwise it would be because of these "antlers" that it would not be good to cross ...
    1. fatty
      fatty April 17 2013 20: 27 New
      0
      Tell me, what’s the matter, and with what, and, most importantly, who and what should end? wildly curious to know?
  14. fatty
    fatty April 17 2013 20: 23 New
    0
    yes nothing. rest, semen, I'm pro-Putin.