Domestic aviation industry comes to an end?
To assess the degree of implementation of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 596 regarding development aviation industry for the needs of civil aviation The Control Department of the Presidential Administration of Russia conducted an appropriate audit. Below are its results.
Over the past 12 years, the number of passengers transported by air transport has increased almost threefold and in 2011 amounted to 64,1 million. It was possible to achieve these indicators mainly due to the use of foreign aircraft. Since 2000, in the Russian operating commercial fleet, the number of foreign aircraft has increased almost 15 times, and by the beginning of 2012, it was 616 units, or 41,4% of the total.
To ensure the competitiveness of civil aviation equipment in the domestic and foreign markets, to equip airlines with highly efficient aviation equipment produced by Russian enterprises, a decree of the Government of the Russian Federation on October 15 from 2001. No. 728 was approved by the federal target program "Development of Russian civil aviation technology on 2002 - 2010 years and for the period up to 2015 of the year" (hereinafter - the Program). It included measures for the development, modernization and production of 17 types of aircraft, 9 helicopters, 18 engines.
Analysis of the implementation of the Program showed that over the period of its validity, it was corrected 6 times, as a result of which funding levels and targets were changed. Thus, the financing of its activities increased by 66,1 billion rubles and amounted to 207,5 billion rubles, including from the federal budget - 59,3 billion rubles and 119,2 billion rubles, respectively. In addition, the development of the aviation industry in 2007 - 2012 in the form of contributions to the share capital, subsidies, etc. United Aircraft Corporation was allocated 247 billion rubles.
With the almost complete development of the allocated funds, the objectives determined by the Program were not achieved.
Not ensured the implementation of measures to develop a modern competitive aircraft. The serial production of the IL-96-300, Tu-204 / 214 aircraft was not organized, although the federal budget spent about 14 billion rubles to bring their parameters to conformity with the requirements of international standards.
Industrial production of the regional Tu-334 aircraft is not secured. Moreover, in 2005, work on this project was excluded from the Program. However, the development, manufacture of the prototype and certification of the aircraft from the federal budget was spent 6 billion rubles, and from extrabudgetary sources - 10,7 million US dollars. The production of new types of Ka-62 and Mi-38 helicopters, which was planned for 2008 and 2009, respectively, has not started. 7,4 billion rubles were spent on their development, including 3,5 billion rubles from the federal budget.
During the period of the Program, the financial position of aircraft manufacturers producing aircraft for civil aviation deteriorated sharply. Thus, according to the results of 2011, the major manufacturers of aircraft equipment are Aviastar-SP CJSC, Voronezh Aircraft-Building Company Joint-Stock Company, Kazan Aviation Production Association OJSC. Gorbunova ”losses amounted to 2,5 billion rubles, 1,5 billion rubles and 1,8 billion rubles, respectively.
The fixed assets of aircraft manufacturing enterprises are physically and morally obsolete, the number of personnel and its professionalism are steadily decreasing. At the enterprises there is practically no mass production of aircraft. Each year, the factories produce about 5-8 aircraft, and only in 2009, they were produced 16. Under these conditions, their cost exceeds the cost of similar foreign aircraft.
A significant negative impact on the competitiveness of domestic aircraft has a lack of engines that meet modern requirements. Existing and future developments are tied to a specific model of the aircraft and do not have interchangeable components. Thus, the SаМ-146 engine, developed by SNECMA (France) and NPO Saturn, is manufactured exclusively for SSJ-100 aircraft. At the same time, the share of Russian components in the total volume of material costs is only 12 percent. The production of each such engine brings losses in the amount of 40 million rubles.
The PD-14 engine is being developed by Perm Engine Company OJSC for the MS-21 aircraft. According to experts, this engine is approximately at the same level with promising projects of the new generation of foreign turbojet engines. However, it is likely that this project will not be breakthrough.
A similar situation exists with the supply of avionics, components, spare parts, which by their characteristics are also inferior to foreign analogues. Thus, over the past three years, the share of avionics for civil aviation in the total revenue of Concern Aviapriborostroenie OJSC was reduced from 21% to 14 percent.
Polymer composite materials that increase the strength of parts, reduce their weight and susceptibility to corrosion are not sufficiently used in the aviation industry. At Boeing and Airbus, the use of composite materials is 40-50% by weight of the aircraft, while at Tupolev and Il, at most 5-10%, Sukhoi (SSJ-100) is 5 percent.
For the above reasons, domestic aircraft do not compete with foreign aircraft in terms of reliability, efficiency, environmental friendliness and comfort. However, in the Russian Federation, the system of after-sales service support for domestic aircraft has not yet been fully established. Analysis of world experience shows that foreign leaders in aircraft construction offer a full range of modern tools, technologies and services for after sales support to customers. This allows the supply of spare parts for aircraft repairs within 24 hours.
The maintenance system existing in Russia does not correspond to the modern requirements of a market economy, as a result of which an increase in the duration and increase in the cost of aircraft repairs occurs. For example, for An-24 / 26 aircraft, which are not mass-produced since the 80-s of the last century, most of the units are not produced at all. As a result, the volume of the repair fund on the market is constantly decreasing and airlines have to purchase nodes at an overpriced price. Aggregates of Mi-8 helicopters in general can only be manufactured by prior request on a prepayment basis in the period from 2 to 3 years. This negatively affects the financial position of the airlines, worsens the position of the Mi-8 helicopter in the highly competitive aviation market. An effective tracking system has not been created for the new SSJ-100. Delivery of more than 70% of spare parts and materials is carried out up to 10 days, and the rest - even longer.
Given the current situation in the aviation industry, Russian airlines are forced to purchase foreign-made aircraft, including used ones. Currently, in the existing commercial fleet, the share of foreign aircraft among the main aircraft has reached 76%, regional - over 30 percent. Major air carriers - OJSC Aeroflot, OJSC Transaero, OJSC Airline Rossiya and OJSC Airline Siberia practically ceased operation of domestic aircraft.
In recent years, in the absence of domestic aircraft, the segment of long-haul (more than 6 thousand km) and medium-haul (from 2,5 to 6 thousand km) traffic in Russia is provided by foreign aircraft made by Boeing and Airbus. The Russian Federation has practically lost its niche in this aircraft market. To date, only X-NUMX Il-11 aircraft are operated in the long-haul segment, representing 96% of the total number of aircraft of this type. According to the information of JSC Aeroflot, which has such aircraft in its 12,3 fleet, it is planned to decommission them before 6 due to low efficiency. Thus, the average IL-2013 flight time per incident is 96 thousand hours, while its B-1,6 and A-767 counterparts have 330 thousand hours and 5 thousand hours, respectively.
In the segment of medium-haul aircraft, Tu-154 aircraft, which were developed as early as the 60 years of the last century, continue to operate. Despite the fact that these planes, based on the resource, can still fly up to 2015, many companies refuse to operate them due to the low fuel efficiency of the NK-8 and D-30 engines installed on them. Thus, the fuel consumption of the D-30 engine is almost two times greater than that of the main CFM56 engine used on modern foreign ships.
Currently, Russian carriers are rapidly replacing the Tu-154 with foreign-made aircraft. From 2000 to 2011, the year JSC Aeroflot decommissioned 26 of such aircraft, JSC Sibir Airlines - 28. An analogue to replace the Tu-154 could be the Tu-204 and Tu-214 series aircraft. However, due to uncompetitive operating parameters, as well as the high cost of these aircraft are not in demand. In this regard, with the 2000, the entire 44 of such aircraft has been released. Currently undergoing certification tests with a planned completion date at the end of 2012, an upgraded version of the Tu-204CM aircraft, featuring new engines, as well as an updated onboard equipment and avionics. It is assumed that 2012 - 2021 will produce 12 of such aircraft per year. However, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the cost price of one machine will be 55 - 60 million US dollars (excluding VAT), which is 15 million dollars more than market prices for similar new Boing aircraft (B-737-800, B-737-900ER) and Airbus (A-320-200, A-321-200). This will not ensure the planned volume of sales in the domestic market.
The situation was especially difficult with regional transportation (from 1 thousand to 2,5 thousand km), whose share in the total passenger turnover is 4,8%, while the United States is about 70 percent. The fleet of regional aircraft on 70% is made up of domestic aircraft of previous generations, having an average age of more than 30 years. Before 2015, the exploitation of most of them is expected (Tu-134, Yak-40 and An-24). At the same time, to replace the retiring aircraft by air carriers, 10 SSJ-100 aircraft from 12 were purchased. The development and production of this aircraft made it possible to preserve the scientific and production potential of the industry. However, the operation of this aircraft has shown that it needs some work. In 2011 - 2012, 18 incidents occurred with aircraft of this series, of which 16 is related to the failure of the equipment. Up to 45% of calendar time, it takes an unscheduled repair of SSJ-100, while at Boeing and Airbus this figure does not exceed 3 percent. Moreover, the total amount of expenses for the SSJ-100 on the 1 seat / kilometer during the Moscow-Copenhagen-Moscow flight is 3,3 rubles, and that of the A-319 aircraft of the same type, 2,8 rubles. In addition, only 100 airfields with artificial turf, or a quarter of their number, are currently allowed to receive SSJ-28.
The necessary characteristics for successful work on regional lines, including in difficult climatic conditions, are An-148 aircraft. Over the past three years, 10 manufactured such aircraft. At the same time, according to experts of Rossiya Airlines OJSC, which has such aircraft in its 6 fleet, a certain refinement is required to increase the efficiency of their operation.
One of the options for replenishing the regional aircraft fleet can be the organization of production of IL-114 aircraft in Russia. According to the calculations of JSC Aviation Complex. S.V. Ilyushin ”, for the implementation of this project will require 4 of the year and an investment of 10,6 billion rubles.
The situation is extremely unsatisfactory with the provision of airline airlines and helicopters for organizing local air transportation (up to 1 thousands of km) in the regions of the Far North, Siberia and the Far East that do not have other transport infrastructure. Currently, local air travel is 1,4 million, or 2,2% of the total number of passengers. This segment of transportation is provided by morally obsolete, An-2 and L-410 aircraft, which are lagging behind in terms of technical parameters from several generations, their age is of the order of 50 years. In the absence of new efficient aircraft development for local airlines, the operational replenishment of the aircraft fleet can be the restoration of airworthiness and the modernization of the An-2 aircraft. This project is supposed to be implemented by the forces of the FSUE “Siberian Scientific and Research Institute of Aviation named after S.A. Chaplygin ”with the participation of Honeywell (USA) by installing a modern turboprop engine on the aircraft. This will reduce fuel consumption 1,2 times and the cost per flight hour 5 times. In addition, a memorandum of cooperation, signed by this company with an American company, provides not only the supply of these engines, but also partial localization in Russia.
At the same time, with the modernization of the An-2 aircraft, there are certain problems in relations with the Antonov State Enterprise, located in Ukraine and being the developer of these aircraft. In accordance with the aviation rules developed by the Interstate Aviation Committee, Russian companies can modernize airplanes whose type certificate holder is abroad only on its terms, which dramatically increases costs for the Russian side. For example, Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which operates An-124 aircraft, during the 20 years paid to Antonov for refining design documentation in excess of 200 million dollars. At the same time, in a similar situation with the modernization of the domestic Il-76TD aircraft, the cost of finalizing the design documentation did not exceed 2 million dollars.
It should be noted that the aviation rules in Ukraine allow interventions in the typical design of airplanes and helicopters by any licensed aircraft developers without the approval of the type certificate holder. In this regard, it seems necessary to consider as soon as possible the revision of aviation regulations in force in the Russian Federation in order to minimize the costs of the Russian aviation industry when modernizing aircraft, developed by a foreign company.
Significant volumes of cargo and passenger transportation on local airlines are performed by helicopters. The basis of the current fleet are Russian-made helicopters of the Mi-8 series (73,2% of the total) and Mi-2 (20%) developed by the 60s of the last century. At the same time, there was a tendency to reduce the supply of commercial vehicles to the domestic market from 39 in 2010 to 15 units in 2011, or 2,6 times. The massive retirement of these helicopters, as well as the delay in the creation of new Mi-38 and Ka-62 helicopters, can lead to the replacement of domestic helicopters with foreign aircraft. Recently, their purchases are increasing. While in 2008, the share of such aircraft in the total fleet was 5%, in 2012, it already reached 12,2 percent.
It should be noted that the reduction of regional and local traffic has a negative impact on operations from airports in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Many of them are in critical condition. The disruption of the air transport structure and other negative trends in the field of regional and local transport have led to a violation of the air transport communication between the administrative centers of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. At present, the population of the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts is often forced to reach the neighboring regions via Moscow, which causes an increase in the cost of travel and an additional burden on the Moscow aviation hub.
An analysis of the current situation shows that it is necessary to provide a scientific and technical groundwork for the creation of aircraft carrying out regional and local transportation. If in the near future the aviation industry does not begin the mass production of such aircraft, these segments of the air transportation may also be occupied by foreign aircraft. Under these conditions, in order to preserve the personnel potential in the aviation industry, as well as the professional level of workers, it is advisable to consider accelerating the creation of mass production of such types of domestic aircraft at Russian aircraft manufacturers or organizing foreign assembly production with subsequent localization of component production in the Russian Federation .
By the concept of the country's long-term socio-economic development, the average growth rate of the air transport market to the 2020 year is estimated as 7,5% per year. This will ensure the growth of aviation mobility of the population in more than 4 times. To ensure the increasing volumes of passenger traffic on air transport and the necessary mobility of Russian citizens, it is necessary to increase the production of modern competitive domestic aircraft. According to expert estimates, up to 2020, the need of Russian airlines can make 1000 - 1200 passenger aircraft, including 700 - 850 mainline and 300 - 350 regional and local aircraft, and 55 - 90 cargo aircraft.
The basic policy of the Russian Federation in the field of aviation activities for the period up to 2020 year provides for the formation of a competitive aviation industry. By the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 7 in May, 2012 No. 596 was entrusted to develop a state program for the development of the aviation industry, providing measures to ensure the needs of civil aviation. The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia has developed a draft state program of the Russian Federation “Development of the aviation industry” for 2013 - 2025 years (hereinafter referred to as the Project). Despite the fact that its development was started a year before the decree of the President of the Russian Federation was issued, the Ministry of Industry and Trade did not provide high-quality project preparation.
The first draft of the Project was developed by United Aircraft Building Corporation in 2011 in accordance with the contract concluded with the Ministry of Industry and Trade for the amount of 42,4 million rubles. However, due to numerous comments by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Transport of Russia and Rosaviation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to develop a new version of the Project. From June to October, 2012 of the Scientific and Research Institute of the Economy of the Aircraft Industry CJSC developed the Project, the cost of which was 32 million rubles.
The draft state program of the Russian Federation “Development of the aviation industry” for 2013-2025 was approved at a meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation on November 23 of the year 2012. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance and other interested ministries were instructed to finalize state support measures for the sale of Russian-made aircraft during the formation of the draft federal budget for 2014 and the planned 2015 and 2016 period, specifying, if necessary, the relevant measures of the state program and their benchmarks. It was also instructed to take the necessary measures to create a quality control and pricing system in the production of domestic aviation equipment, to increase its competitiveness, and also to implement maintenance and repair of aviation equipment primarily by the manufacturers.
We would consider it expedient for the Government of the Russian Federation, when specifying the measures of the state program and its benchmarks, to take into account the materials of the audit conducted by the Control Department of the President of the Russian Federation.
Comments from the editors of Industrial Gazette
In 2011, 64,1 million people were transported by air in Russia. Of this amount, foreign companies transported 15,9 million passengers, the volume of international traffic amounted to 31,3 million, and domestic - 32,7 million people. For comparison, in 1990, 120 million passengers were transported in Russia. Since people usually fly "there and back", the number of Russians who have access to air transport is hardly more than 20 million people today. Moreover, a significant part of them - sent, repeatedly flying not for their money. Thus, the plane in Russia turned into an elite vehicle. And this is with our spaces and distances. Suffice it to say that in the north, around 300 airfields are closed.
Today, the airfield network includes 315 airfields; in 1997, they were on the order of 700. Therefore, there remains an excessive concentration of passenger traffic at the airports of the Moscow aviation hub. In the segment of domestic airlines, almost 75% of all passengers transported by Russian airlines flew to Moscow or left it. In the segment of international air travel, more than 68% of passengers also chose Moscow as the starting or final points of their journey.
Medium and long-haul transportation prevails in the country. The share of regional and local air transportation is extremely small, which reflects the extremely low availability of air transport services for a large number of citizens of the country.
The reason is in effective demand, the low level of which is due to the low incomes of the majority of the country's population and the high cost of tickets. And since the effective demand for passenger air traffic predetermines the ability of air carriers to pay for the maintenance of the infrastructure of the air communication system and buy new airliners, their fleet is replenished mainly due to foreign-made aircraft leased. This is explained by the fact that for almost 15 years, orders for domestic aircraft factories were sporadic, which led to the collapse of a significant part of the technological base and its collapse. After that, she could not recover.
As of the beginning of 2012, the current fleet of Russian airlines included 605 mainline and 340 regional passenger aircraft. At the same time, the use of western types of aircraft, whose contribution to the passenger turnover of Russian airlines in 2011 amounted to 89% (compared to 18% in 2000, year), is becoming increasingly significant. The share of modern Russian aircraft in the volume of passenger traffic was maximum in 2006, when it was 9%, and now it has decreased to 5%.
The volume of shipments of passenger aircraft to the Russian fleet is growing, and 2011 aircraft reached 149 in the year. Over the 2006-2011 years, 557 of foreign-made passenger aircraft was delivered and only 40 of new domestic cars.
Prior to 2015, it is expected that the operation of most domestic and foreign aircraft of previous generations will cease. By 2020, it will be necessary to replace part of the B-767, Il-96, B-737, A-320, Tu-204 aircraft, as well as almost all regional aircraft. Considering the write-off of obsolete types of aircraft in connection with the development of resources and the loss of competitiveness, the need to supply passenger aircraft to Russian airlines in the period up to 2020 year is estimated at 1030-1200 units. In the 2000s, more than 900 passenger aircraft were delivered.
The disposable carrying capacity of the existing fleet by 2020 will be halved, and the fleet carrying capacity of the fleet will have to increase by 90%. This determines the airline's need for 700-850 long-haul and 300-350 regional jets up to 2020.
The fundamental flaw in the federal target program “Development of Russian civil aviation technology” lies in its fragmentation and is indicated in its very name. After all, airliners themselves are not needed by anyone if there is no adequate effective public demand for air transportation, and it predetermines the effective demand of carriers for aircraft equipment and their financing of the maintenance of the infrastructure of the air transportation system.
Therefore, we should talk about a comprehensive program for the restoration and development of the passenger air transportation system in the country, which will include all of its segments: production of aircraft, airfield networks and air traffic control.
And so the current program is reminiscent of the intention to build electric locomotives without taking into account the need to maintain and develop the railway network, train stations, train control system and build comfortable cars. What the “castrated” program, in particular, leads to is shown above: only 100 airfields with artificial turf, or a quarter of their number, are currently allowed to receive SSJ-28. Another flaw in the current program is the lack of personal responsibility for its development and execution.
On the question of how to be a program for the restoration and development of passenger air travel, the editorial staff will return shortly.
Over the past 12 years, the number of passengers transported by air transport has increased almost threefold and in 2011 amounted to 64,1 million. It was possible to achieve these indicators mainly due to the use of foreign aircraft. Since 2000, in the Russian operating commercial fleet, the number of foreign aircraft has increased almost 15 times, and by the beginning of 2012, it was 616 units, or 41,4% of the total.
To ensure the competitiveness of civil aviation equipment in the domestic and foreign markets, to equip airlines with highly efficient aviation equipment produced by Russian enterprises, a decree of the Government of the Russian Federation on October 15 from 2001. No. 728 was approved by the federal target program "Development of Russian civil aviation technology on 2002 - 2010 years and for the period up to 2015 of the year" (hereinafter - the Program). It included measures for the development, modernization and production of 17 types of aircraft, 9 helicopters, 18 engines.
Analysis of the implementation of the Program showed that over the period of its validity, it was corrected 6 times, as a result of which funding levels and targets were changed. Thus, the financing of its activities increased by 66,1 billion rubles and amounted to 207,5 billion rubles, including from the federal budget - 59,3 billion rubles and 119,2 billion rubles, respectively. In addition, the development of the aviation industry in 2007 - 2012 in the form of contributions to the share capital, subsidies, etc. United Aircraft Corporation was allocated 247 billion rubles.
With the almost complete development of the allocated funds, the objectives determined by the Program were not achieved.
Not ensured the implementation of measures to develop a modern competitive aircraft. The serial production of the IL-96-300, Tu-204 / 214 aircraft was not organized, although the federal budget spent about 14 billion rubles to bring their parameters to conformity with the requirements of international standards.
Industrial production of the regional Tu-334 aircraft is not secured. Moreover, in 2005, work on this project was excluded from the Program. However, the development, manufacture of the prototype and certification of the aircraft from the federal budget was spent 6 billion rubles, and from extrabudgetary sources - 10,7 million US dollars. The production of new types of Ka-62 and Mi-38 helicopters, which was planned for 2008 and 2009, respectively, has not started. 7,4 billion rubles were spent on their development, including 3,5 billion rubles from the federal budget.
During the period of the Program, the financial position of aircraft manufacturers producing aircraft for civil aviation deteriorated sharply. Thus, according to the results of 2011, the major manufacturers of aircraft equipment are Aviastar-SP CJSC, Voronezh Aircraft-Building Company Joint-Stock Company, Kazan Aviation Production Association OJSC. Gorbunova ”losses amounted to 2,5 billion rubles, 1,5 billion rubles and 1,8 billion rubles, respectively.
The fixed assets of aircraft manufacturing enterprises are physically and morally obsolete, the number of personnel and its professionalism are steadily decreasing. At the enterprises there is practically no mass production of aircraft. Each year, the factories produce about 5-8 aircraft, and only in 2009, they were produced 16. Under these conditions, their cost exceeds the cost of similar foreign aircraft.
A significant negative impact on the competitiveness of domestic aircraft has a lack of engines that meet modern requirements. Existing and future developments are tied to a specific model of the aircraft and do not have interchangeable components. Thus, the SаМ-146 engine, developed by SNECMA (France) and NPO Saturn, is manufactured exclusively for SSJ-100 aircraft. At the same time, the share of Russian components in the total volume of material costs is only 12 percent. The production of each such engine brings losses in the amount of 40 million rubles.
The PD-14 engine is being developed by Perm Engine Company OJSC for the MS-21 aircraft. According to experts, this engine is approximately at the same level with promising projects of the new generation of foreign turbojet engines. However, it is likely that this project will not be breakthrough.
A similar situation exists with the supply of avionics, components, spare parts, which by their characteristics are also inferior to foreign analogues. Thus, over the past three years, the share of avionics for civil aviation in the total revenue of Concern Aviapriborostroenie OJSC was reduced from 21% to 14 percent.
Polymer composite materials that increase the strength of parts, reduce their weight and susceptibility to corrosion are not sufficiently used in the aviation industry. At Boeing and Airbus, the use of composite materials is 40-50% by weight of the aircraft, while at Tupolev and Il, at most 5-10%, Sukhoi (SSJ-100) is 5 percent.
For the above reasons, domestic aircraft do not compete with foreign aircraft in terms of reliability, efficiency, environmental friendliness and comfort. However, in the Russian Federation, the system of after-sales service support for domestic aircraft has not yet been fully established. Analysis of world experience shows that foreign leaders in aircraft construction offer a full range of modern tools, technologies and services for after sales support to customers. This allows the supply of spare parts for aircraft repairs within 24 hours.
The maintenance system existing in Russia does not correspond to the modern requirements of a market economy, as a result of which an increase in the duration and increase in the cost of aircraft repairs occurs. For example, for An-24 / 26 aircraft, which are not mass-produced since the 80-s of the last century, most of the units are not produced at all. As a result, the volume of the repair fund on the market is constantly decreasing and airlines have to purchase nodes at an overpriced price. Aggregates of Mi-8 helicopters in general can only be manufactured by prior request on a prepayment basis in the period from 2 to 3 years. This negatively affects the financial position of the airlines, worsens the position of the Mi-8 helicopter in the highly competitive aviation market. An effective tracking system has not been created for the new SSJ-100. Delivery of more than 70% of spare parts and materials is carried out up to 10 days, and the rest - even longer.
Given the current situation in the aviation industry, Russian airlines are forced to purchase foreign-made aircraft, including used ones. Currently, in the existing commercial fleet, the share of foreign aircraft among the main aircraft has reached 76%, regional - over 30 percent. Major air carriers - OJSC Aeroflot, OJSC Transaero, OJSC Airline Rossiya and OJSC Airline Siberia practically ceased operation of domestic aircraft.
In recent years, in the absence of domestic aircraft, the segment of long-haul (more than 6 thousand km) and medium-haul (from 2,5 to 6 thousand km) traffic in Russia is provided by foreign aircraft made by Boeing and Airbus. The Russian Federation has practically lost its niche in this aircraft market. To date, only X-NUMX Il-11 aircraft are operated in the long-haul segment, representing 96% of the total number of aircraft of this type. According to the information of JSC Aeroflot, which has such aircraft in its 12,3 fleet, it is planned to decommission them before 6 due to low efficiency. Thus, the average IL-2013 flight time per incident is 96 thousand hours, while its B-1,6 and A-767 counterparts have 330 thousand hours and 5 thousand hours, respectively.
In the segment of medium-haul aircraft, Tu-154 aircraft, which were developed as early as the 60 years of the last century, continue to operate. Despite the fact that these planes, based on the resource, can still fly up to 2015, many companies refuse to operate them due to the low fuel efficiency of the NK-8 and D-30 engines installed on them. Thus, the fuel consumption of the D-30 engine is almost two times greater than that of the main CFM56 engine used on modern foreign ships.
Currently, Russian carriers are rapidly replacing the Tu-154 with foreign-made aircraft. From 2000 to 2011, the year JSC Aeroflot decommissioned 26 of such aircraft, JSC Sibir Airlines - 28. An analogue to replace the Tu-154 could be the Tu-204 and Tu-214 series aircraft. However, due to uncompetitive operating parameters, as well as the high cost of these aircraft are not in demand. In this regard, with the 2000, the entire 44 of such aircraft has been released. Currently undergoing certification tests with a planned completion date at the end of 2012, an upgraded version of the Tu-204CM aircraft, featuring new engines, as well as an updated onboard equipment and avionics. It is assumed that 2012 - 2021 will produce 12 of such aircraft per year. However, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the cost price of one machine will be 55 - 60 million US dollars (excluding VAT), which is 15 million dollars more than market prices for similar new Boing aircraft (B-737-800, B-737-900ER) and Airbus (A-320-200, A-321-200). This will not ensure the planned volume of sales in the domestic market.
The situation was especially difficult with regional transportation (from 1 thousand to 2,5 thousand km), whose share in the total passenger turnover is 4,8%, while the United States is about 70 percent. The fleet of regional aircraft on 70% is made up of domestic aircraft of previous generations, having an average age of more than 30 years. Before 2015, the exploitation of most of them is expected (Tu-134, Yak-40 and An-24). At the same time, to replace the retiring aircraft by air carriers, 10 SSJ-100 aircraft from 12 were purchased. The development and production of this aircraft made it possible to preserve the scientific and production potential of the industry. However, the operation of this aircraft has shown that it needs some work. In 2011 - 2012, 18 incidents occurred with aircraft of this series, of which 16 is related to the failure of the equipment. Up to 45% of calendar time, it takes an unscheduled repair of SSJ-100, while at Boeing and Airbus this figure does not exceed 3 percent. Moreover, the total amount of expenses for the SSJ-100 on the 1 seat / kilometer during the Moscow-Copenhagen-Moscow flight is 3,3 rubles, and that of the A-319 aircraft of the same type, 2,8 rubles. In addition, only 100 airfields with artificial turf, or a quarter of their number, are currently allowed to receive SSJ-28.
The necessary characteristics for successful work on regional lines, including in difficult climatic conditions, are An-148 aircraft. Over the past three years, 10 manufactured such aircraft. At the same time, according to experts of Rossiya Airlines OJSC, which has such aircraft in its 6 fleet, a certain refinement is required to increase the efficiency of their operation.
One of the options for replenishing the regional aircraft fleet can be the organization of production of IL-114 aircraft in Russia. According to the calculations of JSC Aviation Complex. S.V. Ilyushin ”, for the implementation of this project will require 4 of the year and an investment of 10,6 billion rubles.
The situation is extremely unsatisfactory with the provision of airline airlines and helicopters for organizing local air transportation (up to 1 thousands of km) in the regions of the Far North, Siberia and the Far East that do not have other transport infrastructure. Currently, local air travel is 1,4 million, or 2,2% of the total number of passengers. This segment of transportation is provided by morally obsolete, An-2 and L-410 aircraft, which are lagging behind in terms of technical parameters from several generations, their age is of the order of 50 years. In the absence of new efficient aircraft development for local airlines, the operational replenishment of the aircraft fleet can be the restoration of airworthiness and the modernization of the An-2 aircraft. This project is supposed to be implemented by the forces of the FSUE “Siberian Scientific and Research Institute of Aviation named after S.A. Chaplygin ”with the participation of Honeywell (USA) by installing a modern turboprop engine on the aircraft. This will reduce fuel consumption 1,2 times and the cost per flight hour 5 times. In addition, a memorandum of cooperation, signed by this company with an American company, provides not only the supply of these engines, but also partial localization in Russia.
At the same time, with the modernization of the An-2 aircraft, there are certain problems in relations with the Antonov State Enterprise, located in Ukraine and being the developer of these aircraft. In accordance with the aviation rules developed by the Interstate Aviation Committee, Russian companies can modernize airplanes whose type certificate holder is abroad only on its terms, which dramatically increases costs for the Russian side. For example, Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which operates An-124 aircraft, during the 20 years paid to Antonov for refining design documentation in excess of 200 million dollars. At the same time, in a similar situation with the modernization of the domestic Il-76TD aircraft, the cost of finalizing the design documentation did not exceed 2 million dollars.
It should be noted that the aviation rules in Ukraine allow interventions in the typical design of airplanes and helicopters by any licensed aircraft developers without the approval of the type certificate holder. In this regard, it seems necessary to consider as soon as possible the revision of aviation regulations in force in the Russian Federation in order to minimize the costs of the Russian aviation industry when modernizing aircraft, developed by a foreign company.
Significant volumes of cargo and passenger transportation on local airlines are performed by helicopters. The basis of the current fleet are Russian-made helicopters of the Mi-8 series (73,2% of the total) and Mi-2 (20%) developed by the 60s of the last century. At the same time, there was a tendency to reduce the supply of commercial vehicles to the domestic market from 39 in 2010 to 15 units in 2011, or 2,6 times. The massive retirement of these helicopters, as well as the delay in the creation of new Mi-38 and Ka-62 helicopters, can lead to the replacement of domestic helicopters with foreign aircraft. Recently, their purchases are increasing. While in 2008, the share of such aircraft in the total fleet was 5%, in 2012, it already reached 12,2 percent.
It should be noted that the reduction of regional and local traffic has a negative impact on operations from airports in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Many of them are in critical condition. The disruption of the air transport structure and other negative trends in the field of regional and local transport have led to a violation of the air transport communication between the administrative centers of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. At present, the population of the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts is often forced to reach the neighboring regions via Moscow, which causes an increase in the cost of travel and an additional burden on the Moscow aviation hub.
An analysis of the current situation shows that it is necessary to provide a scientific and technical groundwork for the creation of aircraft carrying out regional and local transportation. If in the near future the aviation industry does not begin the mass production of such aircraft, these segments of the air transportation may also be occupied by foreign aircraft. Under these conditions, in order to preserve the personnel potential in the aviation industry, as well as the professional level of workers, it is advisable to consider accelerating the creation of mass production of such types of domestic aircraft at Russian aircraft manufacturers or organizing foreign assembly production with subsequent localization of component production in the Russian Federation .
By the concept of the country's long-term socio-economic development, the average growth rate of the air transport market to the 2020 year is estimated as 7,5% per year. This will ensure the growth of aviation mobility of the population in more than 4 times. To ensure the increasing volumes of passenger traffic on air transport and the necessary mobility of Russian citizens, it is necessary to increase the production of modern competitive domestic aircraft. According to expert estimates, up to 2020, the need of Russian airlines can make 1000 - 1200 passenger aircraft, including 700 - 850 mainline and 300 - 350 regional and local aircraft, and 55 - 90 cargo aircraft.
The basic policy of the Russian Federation in the field of aviation activities for the period up to 2020 year provides for the formation of a competitive aviation industry. By the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 7 in May, 2012 No. 596 was entrusted to develop a state program for the development of the aviation industry, providing measures to ensure the needs of civil aviation. The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia has developed a draft state program of the Russian Federation “Development of the aviation industry” for 2013 - 2025 years (hereinafter referred to as the Project). Despite the fact that its development was started a year before the decree of the President of the Russian Federation was issued, the Ministry of Industry and Trade did not provide high-quality project preparation.
The first draft of the Project was developed by United Aircraft Building Corporation in 2011 in accordance with the contract concluded with the Ministry of Industry and Trade for the amount of 42,4 million rubles. However, due to numerous comments by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Transport of Russia and Rosaviation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to develop a new version of the Project. From June to October, 2012 of the Scientific and Research Institute of the Economy of the Aircraft Industry CJSC developed the Project, the cost of which was 32 million rubles.
The draft state program of the Russian Federation “Development of the aviation industry” for 2013-2025 was approved at a meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation on November 23 of the year 2012. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance and other interested ministries were instructed to finalize state support measures for the sale of Russian-made aircraft during the formation of the draft federal budget for 2014 and the planned 2015 and 2016 period, specifying, if necessary, the relevant measures of the state program and their benchmarks. It was also instructed to take the necessary measures to create a quality control and pricing system in the production of domestic aviation equipment, to increase its competitiveness, and also to implement maintenance and repair of aviation equipment primarily by the manufacturers.
We would consider it expedient for the Government of the Russian Federation, when specifying the measures of the state program and its benchmarks, to take into account the materials of the audit conducted by the Control Department of the President of the Russian Federation.
Control Department of the President of the Russian Federation
December 2012 g
December 2012 g
Comments from the editors of Industrial Gazette
In 2011, 64,1 million people were transported by air in Russia. Of this amount, foreign companies transported 15,9 million passengers, the volume of international traffic amounted to 31,3 million, and domestic - 32,7 million people. For comparison, in 1990, 120 million passengers were transported in Russia. Since people usually fly "there and back", the number of Russians who have access to air transport is hardly more than 20 million people today. Moreover, a significant part of them - sent, repeatedly flying not for their money. Thus, the plane in Russia turned into an elite vehicle. And this is with our spaces and distances. Suffice it to say that in the north, around 300 airfields are closed.
Today, the airfield network includes 315 airfields; in 1997, they were on the order of 700. Therefore, there remains an excessive concentration of passenger traffic at the airports of the Moscow aviation hub. In the segment of domestic airlines, almost 75% of all passengers transported by Russian airlines flew to Moscow or left it. In the segment of international air travel, more than 68% of passengers also chose Moscow as the starting or final points of their journey.
Medium and long-haul transportation prevails in the country. The share of regional and local air transportation is extremely small, which reflects the extremely low availability of air transport services for a large number of citizens of the country.
The reason is in effective demand, the low level of which is due to the low incomes of the majority of the country's population and the high cost of tickets. And since the effective demand for passenger air traffic predetermines the ability of air carriers to pay for the maintenance of the infrastructure of the air communication system and buy new airliners, their fleet is replenished mainly due to foreign-made aircraft leased. This is explained by the fact that for almost 15 years, orders for domestic aircraft factories were sporadic, which led to the collapse of a significant part of the technological base and its collapse. After that, she could not recover.
As of the beginning of 2012, the current fleet of Russian airlines included 605 mainline and 340 regional passenger aircraft. At the same time, the use of western types of aircraft, whose contribution to the passenger turnover of Russian airlines in 2011 amounted to 89% (compared to 18% in 2000, year), is becoming increasingly significant. The share of modern Russian aircraft in the volume of passenger traffic was maximum in 2006, when it was 9%, and now it has decreased to 5%.
The volume of shipments of passenger aircraft to the Russian fleet is growing, and 2011 aircraft reached 149 in the year. Over the 2006-2011 years, 557 of foreign-made passenger aircraft was delivered and only 40 of new domestic cars.
Prior to 2015, it is expected that the operation of most domestic and foreign aircraft of previous generations will cease. By 2020, it will be necessary to replace part of the B-767, Il-96, B-737, A-320, Tu-204 aircraft, as well as almost all regional aircraft. Considering the write-off of obsolete types of aircraft in connection with the development of resources and the loss of competitiveness, the need to supply passenger aircraft to Russian airlines in the period up to 2020 year is estimated at 1030-1200 units. In the 2000s, more than 900 passenger aircraft were delivered.
The disposable carrying capacity of the existing fleet by 2020 will be halved, and the fleet carrying capacity of the fleet will have to increase by 90%. This determines the airline's need for 700-850 long-haul and 300-350 regional jets up to 2020.
The fundamental flaw in the federal target program “Development of Russian civil aviation technology” lies in its fragmentation and is indicated in its very name. After all, airliners themselves are not needed by anyone if there is no adequate effective public demand for air transportation, and it predetermines the effective demand of carriers for aircraft equipment and their financing of the maintenance of the infrastructure of the air transportation system.
Therefore, we should talk about a comprehensive program for the restoration and development of the passenger air transportation system in the country, which will include all of its segments: production of aircraft, airfield networks and air traffic control.
And so the current program is reminiscent of the intention to build electric locomotives without taking into account the need to maintain and develop the railway network, train stations, train control system and build comfortable cars. What the “castrated” program, in particular, leads to is shown above: only 100 airfields with artificial turf, or a quarter of their number, are currently allowed to receive SSJ-28. Another flaw in the current program is the lack of personal responsibility for its development and execution.
On the question of how to be a program for the restoration and development of passenger air travel, the editorial staff will return shortly.
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