In recent days, a lot News came from Central Asia and Kazakhstan. An active discussion has begun on the Internet of a wide variety of issues regarding the full ratification of the agreements of Kyrgyzstan with Russia, the upcoming accession of this country to the Customs Union, as well as the fact that Kazakhstan, under pressure from the opposition, can withdraw from the agreements on the Customs Union. The Kazakh opposition does not like the idea of creating such "supranational" add-ons as the Eurasian Parliament.I. Moscow + Bishkek =?
Victoria Panfilova ("Independent newspaper") recalls that 26 February Kyrgyzstan became the first country in Central Asia to ratify all agreements with Russia. It may well be that by the end of the year Bishkek will join the Customs Union and join the project of creating the Eurasian Economic Union.
President Almazbek Atambayev signed the law on ratification of the package of agreements between the governments of Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation. These include: writing off the external debt of the republic to the Russian Federation (half a billion dollars); construction of the largest hydropower plants of the Kambarata-1 and Upper Naryn cascade of power plants; agreement on the creation of a unified Russian military base.
According to the expert of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Azhdar Kurtov, the foreign policy of the Russian Federation should contribute to the innovative development of the economies of the EAU countries, and possibly those that are going to enter there.
“Otherwise, the model of the colonial system will turn out, under which Russia develops, among other things, innovatively, and its“ allies ”are affirmed in the status of its raw materials appendages. This is unlikely to suit someone. Including Kyrgyzstan, although its economy has degraded in recent years, ”says Kurtov.
Despite the disappointing economic indicators, Kyrgyzstan at the end of this year can become a member of the Customs Union. This was recently said by the Russian ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Andrei Krutko. However, for the introduction, according to the said Azhdar Kurtov, Bishkek will have to bring its legislation in line with the Russian one: the standards of the CU and the future of the EAU are focused on Russia - a country whose economy is more advanced. Simply put, Russia will have to take the content of Kyrgyzstan. This is a constant problem of integration associations with members at different stages of economic development, the expert said.
But not all Kyrgyz are happy. It would seem that here both construction, and the creation of jobs, and the "maintenance", and the cancellation of a huge debt ... No, other Kyrgyz gentlemen were afraid that they would fall under the heel of Moscow.
For example, the deputy of the Kyrgyz parliament Ravshan Dzheenbekov sees in the close rapprochement with Russia the appearance of an even greater dependence. According to him, many Kyrgyz media are under Russian control, communication and fuel markets are in the hands of Russian companies. Questions of transportation, distribution and exploration of gas transferred to Gazprom. Issues with the Manas airbase can be solved only with the consent of the CSTO, that is, again, Russia. Now here and hydropower transferred to Russia. It turns out, according to the expert, that in foreign policy, Mr. Atambayev "focuses only on the Kremlin." Moreover, dividends for Kyrgyzstan, according to Djeenbekov, are elusive, but for Russia they are obvious. Who manages hydropower, he controls and Central Asia.
Ivan Gladilin (KM.ru), referring to the 24kg.org resource, writes that Kyrgyz deputies in the Jogorku Kenesh (parliament) did not object to writing off half a billion of debt, but a serious discussion broke out about other agreements.
Initially, the Minister of Energy and Industry of Kyrgyzstan Avtandil Kalmambetov reminded deputies of the main economic parameters of the agreement: the financing of the feasibility study for Kambaraty-1 and VNK is carried out at the expense of the Russian side, and Kyrgyzstan provides the right to use land plots and assets. For the construction of the KA-1 Russia will provide financing under 2,5% per annum. For VNK, Russia contributes 50%, and the remaining funds are attracted under the conditions of “LIBOR plus 1,5% per annum”. For the period of the return of funds of the Russian Federation, it is exempt from paying taxes and customs duties on the import of special equipment, and the Kyrgyz Republic sets the tariff for the export of electricity.
Because of the last points, the fuss began.
“Kyrgyzstan risks completely losing the Kambarata HPP-1,” said Zhyldyzkan Dzholdoshova. - I do not agree with some points of the agreement, they contradict national interests. It is bonded in nature, since all rights and shares are transferred to Russia. By ratifying the agreement, we will lose our sovereignty. Without Russia's approval, Kyrgyzstan will not even be able to get electricity for the needs of the population. ”
So, writes I. Gladilin, Kyrgyz people’s deputies appreciated the agreement under which Kyrgyzstan contributes water resources to the project, and everything else - money, equipment, specialists - gives Russia. As for the participation in all hydropower projects, it is equal.
As for the united military base, Moscow "managed to put Kyrgyzstan in a ... privileged position." The Russian leadership has decided to allocate 1,5 billion to the modernization of the armies of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but most of Bishkek - 1,1 billion, and Dushanbe was offended. The planned visits to Tajikistan by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov failed. It seems, the columnist believes, "fit to talk not about the diplomatic victory of Moscow, but about a clear flaw in our policy."
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has definitely decided to return to the Central Asian region. And for the sake of this return, Moscow is ready to put up a lot of money and even its reputation, notes Gladilin.
Political designer Yury Yuryev, answering the question IA "REX" about integration processes in which Kyrgyzstan is involved, says:
“We cannot know all the arguments of state power. Suppose that Kyrgyzstan will allow the Taliban hordes to be stopped when it strikes the North, costing the cost of two divisions, but performing the service of ten divisions. The mountainous region of Kyrgyzstan is very convenient for defense, the Tien Shan mountain range ideally covers the border with China. Or, these power plants and gas supplies will release China as an energy consumer if China’s offshore energy supply routes are cut off by the United States, which is quite simple. It is possible that Kyrgyzstan is considered convenient for control of the region aviation or contains some rare earth metals that are critical for Russia. Such arguments are considered secret at all times, and the “customs union”, or even the “Kyrgyz-Russian friendship society” or even the equestrian community of koumiss lovers, may well be the reason for interaction.
Even if Russia "simply rides the mountain range," the scientist says, then "this may be beneficial compared to the much higher cost of other defensive lines."
Ii. Kazakhstan: question with participation remains open
Analyst Alexander Shustov ("Century") believes that in the integration processes between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan there was a pause. Her culprit is Kazakhstan. Under pressure from charges of possible loss of part of national sovereignty, Astana blocked the last integration initiatives of Moscow.
The Moscow idea of creating a Eurasian parliament, expressed by 13 of September 2012 by State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin, was named secretary of the ruling Nur Otan party Yerlan Karin "only by the desire of the Russian side." The Kazakh opposition also took a sharply negative position regarding the creation of the Eurasian Parliament. “It seems to me that the Eurasian Union, in the form in which its Russian colleagues see it, is more presented as an attempt to add Kazakhstan and Russia to Belarus and Belarus ...”, said Burikhan Nurmukhamedov, deputy chairman of the National Social Democratic Party Azat.
Alexander Shustov also notes that the Pan-Turkic vector of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy has recently intensified. In October 2012, during a visit to Ankara, President Nazarbayev delivered a speech calling for the unity of the Turkic peoples. According to him, 200 of millions of Turks live between Altai and the Mediterranean Sea, and if they unite, they will become "a very effective force in the world." At the same time, as is known, the president criticized the presence of Kazakhstan within the Russian Empire and the USSR: "... Over the 150 years, the Kazakhs almost lost their national traditions, customs, language, religion." After such a speech, the experts talked about the likely refusal of Kazakhstan from Eurasian integration in favor of the Pan-Turkic project.
Cooperation between the Turkic-speaking states has recently intensified markedly. At the end of January 2013, the Azerbaijani Trend news agency reported that at the second meeting of the economic, trade and financial issues committee of the Turkic Parliamentary Assembly, it is planned to discuss the elimination of customs taxes and the creation of tax-free zones between the participants of the organization.
Ivan Gladilin (KM.ru), referring to the dialog.kz website, notes that the Kazakhstani opposition is carrying on with the idea of organizing a referendum on the issue of Kazakhstan’s withdrawal from the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space. True, the date of the plebiscite was not set, but in the meantime 2015 year is approaching. Most likely, the opposition has no agreement on this matter.
As for the issue of the level of support for Eurasian integration in Kazakhstan, it remains open. Yulia Yakusheva, deputy executive director of the North-South Russian political science center, notes that opposite statements by sociologists can be found on the Web: from support level to 80%, or vice versa - almost complete denial of any positive news regarding the CU and CES.
And what about Nursultan Nazarbayev? And he emphasizes: we can talk only about economic, but not political integration.
“Eurasian integration is our economic advantage over the challenge of the third global industrial revolution,” Nazarbayev said in January, meeting with diplomats accredited to Kazakhstan. - We intend to make a joint breakthrough to new technologies and structures. At the same time, Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus remain independent states with their own national interests. ”
The other day, the results of a study of the sociocultural consequences of the rapprochement of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, conducted earlier by the Institute of Expert Evaluation and the Center Discourse, were published. In general, citizens of the three countries consider the creation of a Eurasian Union as possible and even to some extent desirable. According to the respondents, among the advantages of the formation of the SES is a good opportunity to develop domestic tourism. The CES opens up opportunities for the active part of the population: enterprising people can get certain benefits. The SES will affect the unification of scientists (say, by the Soviet model). The head of the Institute of Expert Evaluations, Sergey Pavlyuk, confirmed that the main conclusion of the study is as follows: the SES has a future and is stronger than contradictions. “In the survey, we all the time put this question in a hidden form. There is a tendency to live together and work together. And we can have a single market, ”commented Pavlyuk.
According to official statistics, the above-mentioned Yulia Yakusheva reports that the volume of mutual trade of the CU member states increased in 2012 by 8,7% compared to the previous year, and in foreign trade by 3,2%. Belarus for 2012 year increased exports within the vehicle by 10,2%, in Russia exports increased by 1,6%, imports increased by 3,2%. In Kazakhstan, these growth figures were 6,1 and 26,6%.
According to I. Gladilin, "the Kazakh opposition only defend the interests of the semi-feudal Kazakh nobility."
“The Kazakhstani economy ... is extremely monopolized, and not only the raw materials sector is monopolized. And worst of all, hidden monopolies are flourishing, when companies that have a good “roof” control all areas where there is at least some significant money turnover. Any such competition in the Kazakhstani business, any competition in the markets, which is somehow promoted by the integration of the economies of the three countries, is like a guest in the throat. Hence all the talk about the fact that with further integration Kazakhstan will lose more and more its sovereignty. ”
Nevertheless, Moscow can also oppose the Kazakh elites with something: after all, the success of Eurasian integration will bring new elites to the front roles.
However, these elites are not yet visible.
Alexey Vlasov (IA center) notes that at the level of political elites, difficulties in promoting the integration project arose after the March summit of the EurAsEC: after all, there was no decision to immediately establish a Eurasian Economic Union. It was the differences between Moscow and Astana in terms of the timing and sequence of joint actions that led to the fact that the question of the formation of the EurAsEC was postponed to the 2015 year.
One of the key reasons that predetermined “inhibition” was the fact that, in the opinion of part of the Kazakhstani elite, Russian government officials do not sufficiently take into account the interests of Kazakhstan in the process of forming new supranational bodies. None of the integration centers is located in Astana. The analyst admits that this argument deserves attention, since the transfer of the location of a number of bodies outside of Russia "will help avoid conversations that Moscow is once again reviving the Soviet Union."
There is also a “subjective offense”: the Kazakh side believes that the role of Nazarbayev as “creator and creator of the Eurasian project” is not sufficiently reflected in the Russian media and speeches of some politicians.
The public figures Bulat Abilov and Mukhtar Taizhan are particularly active in criticizing the Eurasian project today in Kazakhstan. According to Taizhan, integration with Russia is a process dangerous for the independence of Kazakhstan. He draws attention to the fact that 2000 people work in the Eurasian Commission, and 84% of them are Russian citizens. Taizhan characterizes his former life "under the jurisdiction of Russia" as follows: "As a result, half of the Kazakh people were lost during the famine years."
Finally, there is a whole layer of businessmen suffering losses due to the entry of Kazakhstan into the Customs Union and the SES. These include those who re-export Chinese goods, such as used cars.
Many economists also pay attention to the fact that with the development of integration the Kazakhstan market opens for Russian producers, but the reverse process does not occur. But the reason, says Alexei Vlasov, is more likely that the Kazakh manufacturer, with the exception of strategic sectors, has not “gained muscle” yet and cannot successfully compete with the products of Russian companies. Kazakhstan economist Kanat Berentayev argues that these are temporary difficulties, and in the future the reverse trend will prevail.
In any case, the analyst writes, the economic factor in the process of Eurasian integration remains dominant. One can even assume that this year the partners in the Eurasian project will go to accelerate integration.
Thus, despite the pessimistic mood of the opposition and some public figures, Kazakhstan will probably move along the path of integration. Another thing is that these processes are not as fast as the optimists would like.
Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru