Capture of Ocheretino. What did you think about immediately after the liberation of the village?
To be honest, I just don’t know what to do: answer the questions or ignore them. The questions relate to very specific events that are happening right now or happened just a couple of hours ago. The specificity of the media is such that materials are published with some delay due to the technical side of the process.
And the speed of events is such that by the time the article was published, everything had already happened, and the invoice had lost its relevance. For understanding, I will give an example of Bogdanovka. Two days ago this was very relevant. Who is interested in this topic today?
The fighting continues. The epicenter of events is constantly moving. Now the mail is inundated with requests to comment on the capture of Ocheretino by our units.
Well, I’ll express my thoughts on April 23, i.e., a few hours after the liberation of Ocheretino. The attempt is not torture, and the reader will have the opportunity to evaluate the author’s logic.
Why did the Ukrainian Armed Forces flee from Ocheretino?
I'll start with the simplest.
The loss of Ocheretino is not only the result of the heroic actions of our units, but also an indicator of the complete cretinism of the Ukrainian headquarters! Well, and, accordingly, competent work and understanding of modern combat by our headquarters. No more and no less. This is not “hurray, we are breaking”, but a simple statement of fact.
It’s not for nothing that I put the word “escaped” in the subtitle. Probably, some readers have seen interesting footage taken by Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers, where the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicle covers the flight of Ukrainian infantry and hits the outskirts of the village. Not an organized retreat, as Ukrainian commentators are trying to say, but flight!
Why did this happen?
After all, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine perfectly understood the price of Ocheretino. And it was defended not by “men” from the newly arrived reinforcements, but by experienced fighters and commanders from the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade who had been fired upon in many battles and who had gone through many butchery assaults of the Troopers’ Brigades.
The answer, as is traditionally the case, is simple. Ukrainian officers studied poorly. They did not understand the main thing in their military academies. The winner is not the one who knows the combat regulations well. The one who applies it creatively wins. Simply because the enemy also knows how to read and knows perfectly well what is written in your charter.
What exactly happened in Ocheretino?
The defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was built according to the classical scheme. When only a part of the units whose task is to suppress enemy attacks is at zero. That is, stop the attack and allow artillery and other means to work on the enemy “over the heads of their infantry.” The Russians went out into the field and received the full blow from heavy weapons...
A very logical defense structure. The commander has the opportunity to rotate units. Fresh fighters are always at hand. The capabilities of artillery allow you to transfer fire to any part of the defense without much difficulty. In short, sit and smoke. The war will proceed according to the same combat regulations.
But what happens on the real battlefield?
Let's start with artillery and other weapons.
Can she feel safe being “behind the infantry”? Unfortunately no. Russian VKS and drones successfully infect entire batteries, not to mention individual systems.
In such a situation, what falls to the lot of the infantry on the front line? And precipitation falls on their heads in the form of FABs and heavy artillery shells. And even add FPV drones. Agree, this is not a very “resort” situation. Will the infantry be able to stand under the FABs for a long time? How long will it take for the fighters to realize that in the current situation they have only two options: die or run away.
Even captivity looks quite problematic. For bombs and large caliber shells, it doesn't matter what you want, but what matters is that you are present in the positions. This means that you are a legitimate target... Experienced fighters understood everything perfectly and therefore quickly worked out the “save yourself who can” option.
And other experienced fighters took advantage of the situation. This is what modern warfare is like.
I had a lot of fun reading on the Ukrainian channels the expression “a surprise attack by the Russians led to an advance along Zheleznodorozhnaya (street) to a depth of 1,2 kilometers.”
I wonder why they kept a unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at Zheleznodorozhnaya? For defense or for something else? And why did the Russians stand there?
That's how it happens. We defend and defend, and suddenly - an “unexpected attack”...
What prospects opened up after the capture of Ocheretino?
I repeat, I do not consider the loss of Ocheretino a serious strategic mistake for Kyiv. And to call the operation itself something out of the ordinary is hard to come by. We have already seen something similar. Let me remind you of the operations in Avdeevka and in the Umansky area.
The defense is torn in two by a blow, and then centers of resistance are systematically destroyed with the help of heavy artillery and aviation.
By the way, it has now become clear why the Russian Army stood by and did not launch counterattacks during the meat assaults near Orlovka, Tonenkiy, Semyonovka... “Minced meat” cannot fight. He's just minced meat, not even "meat". And in these assaults, the most combat-ready units and formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were turned into mincemeat.
The loss of Ocheretin created problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Evgenovka and Sokol. And further in Zhelanny. It is no secret that after the intensification of the combat work of our Aerospace Forces in Mirnograd and Selidov, it was Zhelannye that became the main logistics route for delivering replenishment and supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In general, the loss of Ocheretino quite seriously complicated the position of the entire Ukrainian group in this area.
Well, the last.
The outlines of new boilers are already clearly visible, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unlikely to be able to avoid. These are oporniki in Novobakhmutovka, Novokalinovo and Berdychi. The only way out of this situation, in my opinion, is to retreat to more advantageous positions. What Syrsky is unlikely to do without Zelensky’s permission.
What does Zelensky hope for?
I don't really understand. Almost every day, Kyiv’s negotiating positions are worsening. I have already written about the operation to discredit either our army or Western assistance. I think the newly-minted dictator wants to outwit the whole world and transfer the format of the war in Ukraine to the global level. This is the only, albeit very illusory, way to avoid the tribunal and somehow get out for Zelensky personally.
Instead of totals
It is stupid to talk about the results of each specific operation. Not every tactical success is part of a strategic operation. But every battle won is important for the outcome of the entire war. They took a small village, but created big problems for the enemy.
Now it is important for Kyiv to gain time at any cost. Hence all this talk about negotiations. I have written many times that no binding decisions can be made a priori. We have already been through this and understand what they are offering us and why. Meat assaults are actually the same attempt to stall for time. Only the method is more cruel, more bloody.
The offensive must be continued. Do not force events, but put pressure in the same vein as now. An indestructible “war machine” that cannot be stopped has a very good effect on the ability to think. Especially think about those against whom this machine operates.
The war is lost first of all in the heads... Not on the battlefield, not in the headquarters of armies or navies, but in the heads of ordinary people. Be it those who work for the war, or those who directly fight. Thoughts about defeat appeared - consider that you lost 50% of the battle...
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