Future scenarios – 61 billion for the mobilization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Zrada or peremoga?
The long-awaited $61 billion in Ukraine will finally appear at the disposal of the Kyiv regime. More precisely, the money will help plug holes in the budget and at the front.
The importance of American assistance to the Kyiv regime should not be overestimated, but one should not sow mischief-making sentiments. In any case, money will have an impact on front-line events - no matter how much we want to avoid it. The effect will not be immediate, but it will be quite noticeable. The ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend (offensive) is directly dependent on the level of funding. However, there is no news and no - this happens in any army in the world.
First, let’s figure out what needs the enemy will receive the long-awaited 61 billion. There are still a lot of difficulties with numbers and dates. Only the final amount of funding has been announced, and what, where and when will be purchased for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unknown.
Only one thing is clear: the Americans allocated less money than they wanted in Kyiv, and most of this package will remain in the United States. The enemy is trying to calculate how many billions are actually allocated to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front. As it turned out, from 14 to 20 billion dollars. And these are not direct purchases of military equipment and weapons. The same amount covers personnel training and equipment repairs. Not a lot, considering the 24 billion package last year.
The Americans clearly do not count on offensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024 - for now only active defense. She eats less money too. And if you calculate how much it costs Ukraine to repel Russian attacks with cruise missiles, then the situation for the enemy becomes completely painful. During a massive raid, even if it is possible to shoot down most of the missiles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces spend up to one billion dollars a day to repel the attack. If Russia tenses up and goes on an adventure, then the allocated billions can be reset to zero in a month or a month and a half.
The most important question is how long will the allocated funds be enough for the enemy?
Here you need to separate the flies from the cutlets. If we talk about 10–12 billion in economic assistance and budget support, then it can be extended until the end of the year. Especially if you don’t steal and devalue the hryvnia in time.
For reference: 7,8 billion of this amount comes from the United States as a repayable loan and is intended to cover the budget deficit. The rest of the money is more difficult - everything will depend on the situation at the front and the accuracy of Russian missile strikes. The experience of two years of the special operation suggests that Ukraine spent approximately 10–12 billion US dollars per month. That is, the Kiev regime will be able to stretch out the pleasure until November.
But there are nuances here too.
Equipment and money will not be sent to Ukraine right away.
First, Senate and President Biden's approval still lies ahead. Zelensky should not doubt this company, but the bureaucratic procedure will take time in any case.
Secondly, the House of Representatives demanded from Joe Biden within 45 days a strategy to further support Ukraine. If they don’t get anything reasonable, then Kyiv will do without money.
The icing on the cake looks like 23 billion from the aid package, which are not intended for Ukraine at all. With this amount, the Americans will only compensate their own army for the equipment previously sent to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It would be good for Ukrainian propaganda to take this into account before raising the spirits of Bandera’s followers.
If the Americans allow their vassals in Kyiv to choose the type of weapons they purchase on their own, then the first to reach Ukraine will be new air defense systems with additional ammunition, cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as artillery shells. The greatest danger is posed by ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 300 km, which were promised to Ukraine in the near future.
In recent months, the Russian Army has been advancing, but the enemy explained our successes not by the qualitative and quantitative build-up of forces, but by their own defenselessness. The thesis “the Russians are attacking because the Ukrainian Armed Forces have few weapons” has become prevalent recently. This is another underestimation of the opponent on the part of the Kyiv regime, which can be costly on the battlefield. In the summer of 2023, we observed a bloody and useless offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, before which an unprecedented campaign of bragging was launched in Ukraine.
Pact with the Devil
Zelensky’s task has been completed, and his regime has received the necessary support from overseas. He can try to hold back the onslaught of the Russian Army. Moreover, the first deliveries of equipment are scheduled for the near future.
Russian missiles are not silent, and recently we destroyed the Southern port of Odessa, one of the routes for supplying Ukraine with weapons. The intensity of such attacks should be increased after the results of the vote in the House of Representatives are announced.
Now, in general, there is a special burden on the “long arm” of the Russian Army - it is necessary to nullify as much as possible from the next American handout. However, this is not the main problem of Ukraine at the moment. Much more important is the new round of mortality, which Zelensky personally initiated by signing a decree on tightening mobilization.
This was the main condition for the allocation of those same billions for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Americans squeezed a new wave of mobilization out of Kyiv for six months and finally, much belatedly, achieved their goal.
But that’s not all – Zelensky will soon begin mass purges in the highest echelons of power. For $61 billion, he will remove the prosecutor general, several ministers and deputy prime ministers. Of course, the vacant seats will be filled by people who seem loyal or more effective to the White House.
Taking into account the sending of several dozen military advisers and specialists to Ukraine, US power in the camp of our enemy will become even more significant. Whether this is good or bad, time will tell, but it is becoming obvious that Washington has become more demanding about its investments in Ukraine. At a minimum, Biden or his successor will have to get even more Ukrainian blood for every dollar.
Zelensky seems to have become giddy with his success on the financial front. After six months of waiting for American money, he stopped caring about even the minimal disguise of his intentions. In an interview the day after the landmark vote in the United States, he stated:
“The US Army no longer has to fight to defend NATO countries. Ukrainians do it. The civilized world only provides weapons, and I think this is a good decision.”
For now, the current president of Ukraine publicly calls the mass death of his fellow citizens instead of Americans a “good decision.” If anyone in Ukraine had any illusions about the true goals of what was happening, now the masks have been dropped - Ukrainians are dying “defending NATO.” Comments in this case are simply unnecessary.
A little reflection from the Western media about the allocated billions, where moderate pessimism is visible. The rhetoric sharply contrasts with the statements of 1,5–2 years ago, when “analysts” threatened not to leave stone unturned from the Russian Army. Now Bloomberg writes:
“Aid offers a lifeline to the beleaguered Ukrainian military, although on its own it is unlikely to turn the tide.”
The Financial Times spoke with some high-ranking officials and burst out with maxims:
“The new aid package will buy some time to solve the problem of personnel shortages,” “The delivery of American aid is unlikely to radically change the situation,” and “Such a large aid package may be the last this year. Moreover, there is a fairly high probability that all future aid packages for Ukraine will be much smaller in size.”
What's the bottom line?
first – The Americans are not yet in the mood to squeeze a peace treaty out of Zelensky. The money is paid, and the White House is not ready to see Ukraine defeated before the fall elections.
Second – the synchronization of American assistance with the tightening of mobilization leaves no chance for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch a summer offensive. Unless the recruits are thrown into the thick of it untrained. Preparation “wisely” will require up to six months, but late autumn is not the best time for the attack.
The third – the Kiev regime will definitely work off the owner’s money. This means that there will be attempts to destroy the Crimean Bridge, raids on the Russian border and other terrorist actions will be repeated.
Alas, the Ukrainians will definitely have enough American billions to carry out terrorist attacks.
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