A beautifully tied knot of war in the Gaza Strip, or is it possible to stop the war
For several days now, there has been controversy in the press regarding the relationship between Israel and Iran. Journalists, political scientists, and experts are trying to understand what is happening in Israel and Iran, and why the issue of starting, if not a world war, but a new regional war is so urgent.
No one is surprised anymore that the Israeli prime minister is announcing an attack on neighboring countries. No one is surprised that the Iranian leadership is openly talking about revenge for those killed in the Israeli strike. aviation. The world calmly looks at the development of events, believing that a new war will not affect other regions...
At the same time, I repeat, after the aggressive statements of the Israeli Prime Minister, an IDF statement appears about the end of the active phase of hostilities and the withdrawal of some units from the Gaza Strip. But the possibility of an operation in Rafah in southern Gaza cannot be ruled out.
And if we add numerous speeches by Israelis condemning the war and demanding its speedy end, the situation becomes completely confusing. The prime minister says one thing, the IDF leadership says another, the citizens of Israel say the third, the terrorists say the fourth, and the representatives of Iran say the fifth.
So will there be an offensive on Rafah? Will there be a response to a terrorist attack against Iranian citizens? Will we ultimately see another war between the Israelis and their neighbors?..
What do “knowledgeable people” in Israel talk about?
It is clear that in order to learn some little-known details of the internal cuisine of the Jewish state, it is necessary to communicate with people who know a little more than others. These “knowledgeable people” can always shed light on the facts that appear in the media.
So, why did the IDF declare the end of the active phase of the war? According to the Israeli military, Hamas has lost most of its combat units. Moreover, Israeli troops were able to destroy a system of underground passages that allowed terrorists to transfer reinforcements throughout almost the entire sector.
At the same time, Hamas has retained four combat-ready “battalions” (Israeli taxonomy), which are located in Rafah. There are two more similar units located in two refugee camps. But they are weakened and do not pose a great danger.
I think the statements of the IDF representatives are now clear. On the one hand, Israelis are tired of the war, and the country's image has largely become nothing. Life is really getting worse, the danger remains. On the other hand, more and more questions arise about what to do next. Israel is unable to swallow such a piece as the Gaza Strip...
The offensive on Rafah is necessary in order to, if not destroy these same four “battalions,” then weaken them as much as possible. And the point here is not so much to eliminate the terrorist threat as to deprive Hamas of political power in Gaza. By the way, another incident fits perfectly here. An attack on the family of a Hamas leader and the killing of his three sons.
Further, according to the plan of the leadership of the Israeli army and intelligence services, it is necessary to take measures to strengthen the position of the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization) in order to transfer control of the Gaza Strip to this organization. In this way, the issue of governing this territory by an administration loyal to Israel is resolved.
And this is where the same Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, comes in. According to Israeli experts, it is Netanyahu who opposes the plan proposed by the IDF. Hence the “popular protests” and other tinsel designed to influence the prime minister’s image and force him to resign. But the prime minister is not a boy, he feels like a fish in water in the political kitchen, and you can’t take him “on nerves”...
Well, one last thing. Iran. It seems like how can the Israelis influence the leadership of this state, especially after all the past events? If the plan of the IDF leadership is implemented, Iran will emerge victorious from the unstarted war. The very reason for war disappears. Although some incident is possible, such as a strike on an Israeli military unit or other object. Everyone is with their own people, and Hamas is deprived of political and military power in Gaza!
It was not for nothing that Iran informed the United States (!) that it would refrain from responding to the terrorist attack if there were agreements on a ceasefire in Gaza. The Persians used the Americans beautifully. Are you fighting for power there, Mr. Biden? Here's a "bone for food" for you. But you will bark for this bone as we say!
That's exactly what happened. The image of a successful peacemaker will not hurt Biden. So the American president talked to the Israeli prime minister in his own way. As a result, Biden can already talk about the success of his ceasefire efforts. Iran saves face, Israel and Hamas get a break.
Of course, there is logic in the proposals that I voiced above. As there are answers to many questions. But for some reason experts do not take into account the changes in Israeli society itself. And the changes are quite serious. The monolith in society that helped win past wars no longer exists. There is a split on many issues. It is not yet clear how to eliminate it.
Plans are one thing, but reality is another.
What is known today? Almost the entire 98th Division has been withdrawn from Gaza. Part of the 401st brigade and the Nahal brigade remained there. They are based in the central and northern parts of the sector respectively. That is, the IDF refuses to put pressure on Khan Yunis. Thus, it loses leverage over Hamas in hostage negotiations.
By the way, Khan Yunis is a fairly important area for Hamas. This is where the underground logistics centers are concentrated. Simply put, if in ancient times “all roads led to Rome,” then in Gaza all tunnels lead to Khan Yunis. It’s interesting how pro-government and army bloggers comment on the situation.
For the government, all tunnels have been destroyed. And not only destroyed, but also cannot be restored in the coming years. But other sources say that restoration has already begun, and in general, statements about complete destruction are just the government’s “wants.”
Personally, I agree with the second statement. Those tunnels that were known about were destroyed. What about the rest? It seems to me that the claim of destruction is just an attempt to justify the bombing and destruction of residential areas. “We are forced to blow up high-rise buildings because there were tunnels underneath them. The destruction of the house means the collapse of the tunnel.” This is roughly what the explanation sounds like.
Again a little about Rafah. Whatever one may say, the main goal of the war declared by the Netanyahu government has not been achieved! Remember “return the hostages”? And what? Returned? No, moreover, even the negotiations have reached a dead end. It seems to me that the announcement of the attack on Rafah is largely due to Tel Aviv’s desire to gain an additional bargaining chip in hostage negotiations. The trump card, I must say, is dubious.
Who won as a result of all these events? It seems to me, this is a personal opinion, Hamas won. Whatever one may say, time is on the terrorists’ side. They are rebuilding not only tunnels and military infrastructure, but also government agencies. This is really important today. Lack of power gives power to bandits.
I wrote above about the other participants in the events. The only thing worth adding is (possibly) favorable information for Washington. Did you notice that I didn't touch on the Houthis and the Red Sea blockade at all? This is not some clever move on my part. It is a fact. The Houthis have practically been eliminated from the conflict. That is, a most important event for the United States took place. The war has not gone beyond existing borders!
Two sequels that might change things
This time it’s impossible to finish the material without some conclusions. The picture that the reader may have formed after reading it is so fragile that I cannot help but remind you of it.
To put it bluntly, everyone is tired of the war, and getting involved in a new phase of confrontation is not beneficial for anyone. The position of Iran itself, if we put aside the diplomatic language, is expressed in a simple desire to sit on the sidelines. The US position is approximately the same. Calm down the cheerful “child from Tel Aviv” so that the “fun” does not go beyond the “apartment”.
But Netanyahu’s position is quite dangerous. It completely destroys the fragile balance of power that has taken shape today. If the Israeli prime minister follows through on his promises to launch an offensive on Rafah, Iran will be forced into a fight. And the United States will be put in a very unpleasant position. Which already threatens Israel itself.
So the future largely depends on Israel, on its desire to fight further...
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