Chasov Yar as another operation of the Russian army. Conversation with rushers
Once again I am faced with how our readers “take” oporniks and even cities before our army. I understand the desire to speed up victory. But you shouldn’t wishful thinking. Today we will talk about the “taking” of the Clock of Yar. I don’t even want to count how many materials are now devoted to this. But, paradoxically, the majority is based on... past victories of our army.
The feeling is that in the minds of some authors all Ukrainian cities are twins. You have worked on one and you can work on others using the same tracing paper. The only difference is the size of the settlement. And this despite the fact that sufficiently informed people are talking about this. Not the grandmothers on the nearest bench, but those who watch every day the news from the NWO zone.
At the beginning of the material, I will answer those who often write about the strategic task of our army for the summer campaign. This is how I personally see the situation developing in the coming months. To some extent, this will also be the same “wishful thinking”.
Thoughts on the tasks, military and political, that it's desirable to be decided in the summer campaign of 2024.
Based on the actions of our army at the present time, we can conclude that we continue to solve the problems of demilitarization of Ukraine. We are destroying the military potential of Kyiv. In addition, it is also clear that Zelensky deliberately engages in provocations, the purpose of which is the desire to provoke a response from Russia and strike the civilian population. Thanks to our soldiers and commanders for the jewelry strikes. Objects are destroyed with minimal casualties among the civilian population.
It is no secret that the main factor that may prevent us from strangling the Zelensky regime is the situation with the elections in the United States. For some reason, everyone decided that immediately after the elections the situation could change. At the same time, forgetting that until the inauguration of the new president, the country will be led by President Biden. So, nothing will change until October 7th.
What can become a real victory for Russia?
I believe that for this it is enough to take the Left Bank, even with a blockade of large cities, and the coast - Odessa and Kherson.
Thus, we will completely close the issue of the wishes of NATO and the United States in Ukraine.
I think President Putin’s words about the threat of Ukraine losing its own statehood have begun to come true...
There are no ports, there is no possibility of placing military facilities near the Russian border, there is no possibility of using Ukrainian airfields for basing NATO aircraft and UAVs. This means that Ukraine is turning into a state that no one needs and, alas, is completely deprived of the opportunity not only to wage war, but also to live an independent life.
Moreover, I admit the division of Ukraine.
Some of the land will go to Romania, some to Hungary, and some to Russia. I don’t think that Russia and Belarus will agree to “give a piece to Poland.” So the Poles will get a big hit.
I think it’s too early to develop the topic. That’s why I write about what is desirable, and not about the tasks at hand.
Chasov Yar is not a stronghold, but a fortress
Let's return to the topic of today's material. Chasov Yar.
If you don’t remember that the construction of fortifications in this city began back in 2014, if you don’t know that the distance from Artemovsk to this city is only 10 km, if you don’t take into account that the difference in heights in different areas of the city is 110 meters, and the city rises above the surrounding area, then the town of 12 thousand (in peacetime) is a fairly easy “prey”.
I don’t think I’ll say anything new if I cite a number of factors that will “help” the Ukrainians defend it. This is, first of all, the same physical geography. The elevation changes and the location of the city on a hill make it possible for enemy artillery to seriously complicate the movements of the advancing troops.
And taking into account the fact that the garrison of Chasy Yar consists not of newly recruited “volunteers”, but of elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this task becomes extremely difficult. Well-prepared units that have been fired upon in many battles in strongholds that are quite seriously equipped in terms of engineering are able to hold the defense for quite a long time. Alas, we have to admit that the principle of “not a step back” is inherent not only in the Russian, but also in the Ukrainian army.
Next.
Chasov Yar is smaller, for example, than Avdeevka, but still the city is quite large in area. Moreover, there are so many types of buildings mixed in there that your head is spinning. In addition to modern high-rise buildings, there is a fairly large private sector, industrial zones, etc. And all this in combination with hillocks and ravines... Of course, taking advantage of the fact that air defense and aviation The Armed Forces of Ukraine are now “half dead”, we are trying to destroy the defense with FABs. But…
Firstly, the FAB, no matter how you modernize it, is still an aerial bomb. And a decently powerful bomb. Now there is a lot of talk about FAB-3000. “We will iron” the supports. I already wrote once about how even a shock wave incapacitates soldiers. But there are also civilians in the city... So we won’t go anywhere from the FAB-500. FAB-3000 is a one-piece product for especially stubborn dead people...
Above I wrote about the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It's no secret that drones They annoy our soldiers the most. So, according to some information, there are now 11 such units in the city and surrounding areas! I think there is no point in developing this topic. Everyone understands the problems they create. That is why the fighting is so fierce. Hence the pace of advance. Prepared defense and knowledgeable and motivated attackers...
We must not forget that the garrison of Chasov Yar also has its own repair base, arsenals, warehouses with fuel and food supplies. That is, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to return damaged units to service. Tanks and armored vehicles, to replenish ammunition not only for riflemen, but also for artillery and tanks. This is another task for our soldiers.
I already wrote that it would be difficult to take such a fortress head-on. And not very smart from a tactical point of view. What we see today is a necessity.
I read from some analysts that “the city is in a semicircle”... That’s how it is. What is this, a boiler without one wall? Siege does not include the word "semi".
That is why our fighters are now fighting on the flanks. That’s why they lay down their lives so that this very “semi” does not exist. To make it easier for those who directly storm urban buildings. Conversely, those who storm the city save the lives of those who end up surrounding it. They are saved by the fact that the enemy cannot remove even a small unit and transfer it to the flanks.
And the last.
When will we take Chasov Yar?
Let me start with the fact that if a cauldron is formed, the value of the Clock of Yar will sharply decrease. But this does not mean that the formations located there, and these are four brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, although one is seriously battered, will surrender the city and stop resistance. Alas, but, in my opinion, Chasov Yar is even more important for the Ukrainian Armed Forces than those cities that we have already liberated.
More important for two reasons.
I already wrote about the first above. For almost ten years the city was one of the most important logistics centers. Hence a sufficient number of warehouses and arsenals and the ability to conduct long-term defense.
And the second, no less significant. If the city is abandoned, the brigades will have to retreat almost across open terrain, along lowlands, without serious support to the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk line. I don’t think that the Russian army will miss such a “celebration on their street”...
So, don't shout about victory anytime soon. We will slam the lid of the boiler. But slowly, preserving personnel and equipment.
I will repeat for the hundredth time. The meat grinder will work properly...
The result?
I’m using an outdated word that few people know today. First of all, I want to please those who are enraged by my words that everything is going according to plan. So, everything is really going according to plan. Look at materials from 3-4 months ago. VO already predicted the approximate course of events.
So what's next?
I think that further tasks will be set in the vein that I wrote about in the first part. Tactics are just part of strategy. When and where hostilities will intensify will depend on the situation at that particular moment. Where it's thin, that's where it breaks. So we’ll look for where it’s subtle.
Chasov Yar is a really serious problem. But this is not a global problem. This is just one of the operations that take place almost constantly. There were Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdeevka... Then we also talked about something global... Now Chasov Yar... There will be a Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration... There will be many more cauldrons and cauldrons.
Exactly until the moment when Kyiv will sign the surrender...
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