It will come to nuclear power plants: prospects for the destruction of Ukrainian energy
Trypilska TPP is offside
This should have been done yesterday
News reports of another destroyed thermal power plant in Ukraine may become commonplace in the very near future - it seems that the Russian Army has changed its strategy for destroying the enemy’s infrastructure.
High precision strikes weapon for electric power facilities are not new - in the winter of 2022–2023, similar actions were used to put distribution stations and transformers out of action. There have been a few oddities in past strikes.
According to what wartime laws was it decided to hit such insignificant targets?
The main generating capacities both worked and continued to function. There were several explanations.
Firstly, the missiles should not have caused critical damage to civilian infrastructure and civilians. Cutting off power to high-voltage lines and preventing the rapid transfer of extensive Western aid to the front - this is roughly what the original plan might have looked like. It’s hard to say whether it worked or not, but the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the summer of 2023 began with a noticeable delay.
Secondly, such a scrupulous attitude towards Ukraine’s energy sector may be explained by a reluctance to lay out all the cards. A controversial statement, of course, but it is what it is. The enemy was made to understand that in the event of further escalation, Russia has trump cards - the opportunity to further destroy the energy system and return Ukraine to the “stone age.” Slow, controlled, but returning.
It is unknown where the notorious “red lines” were drawn for Zelensky in this matter, but most likely they related to attacks on Russian refineries. As is known, Ukrainian drones turned out to be quite effective and were able to reduce gasoline production by 12 percent. Considering that the key consumers of this fuel are civilians, it is now possible to respond to them with similar actions. Without any twinge of conscience, so to speak.
The production of diesel fuel, on which the Army lives, has not been affected in Russia - moreover, there is still an excess supply. Russia cannot respond symmetrically and destroy the enemy’s oil refineries, since such facilities in Ukraine have long been out of play. It is impossible to say that the missiles actually caused some critical damage to the enemy’s power system. Everything was restored and electricity exports to Europe were quickly resumed.
The situation with the Ukrainian electric power industry is very interesting. The legacy of the Soviet Union was a powerful energy system and, of course, a powerful industrial complex - the main consumer. Over the course of three decades, with the help of old Europe, the country underwent rapid deindustrialization and became an agricultural power. Whatever one may say, this is a regression. The big owners allowed Kyiv to keep the electricity generation facilities and even modernize them. First of all, to buy surplus for your loved ones.
Russia's vegetarian attacks on energy substations only distracted the enemy's attention. A few weeks passed, and Ukraine resumed exporting electricity to the European Union. First of all, to Poland and Moldova. This happened in 2023, and this happened again at the beginning of 2024. From March 11 to March 17 alone, Ukraine sold 35 thousand MW hours of electricity abroad.
And so, in the third year of the special operation, the Russian Army finally got its hands on large electricity generation facilities. The extreme blows to the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant completely disabled it. At least that's what they said in Ukraine. This is not the enemy’s largest thermal power plant, but it is quite important - it powers a large part of the Kyiv region.
Earlier, the Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant near Kharkov ceased its operation. Someone even talked about a radical change during the special operation. They say that they finally woke up that same Russian bear, and now it will begin.
There is still a lot of work
Before planning a total blackout of Ukraine, it is necessary to understand the scale of the task.
At the moment, Bushtyrskaya (the most powerful of those remaining in Ukraine), Trypillya, Ladyzhinskaya and Zmievskaya thermal power plants are considered destroyed. The total liquidated capacity is about 8 MW, which is about 100 percent of the capacity of thermal power plants controlled by Ukraine at the beginning of 70.
The Krivorozhskaya and Pridneprovskaya thermal power plants are operating, producing 2 and 256 MW at their peak, respectively. It can be assumed that they will become the next targets of the Russian Army.
Thermal power plants powered by coal are the main generators for Ukraine, excluding nuclear power plants. After the largest attack on enemy energy facilities, the Kiev regime is forced to buy electricity from Poland, Romania and Slovakia. If we rely on enemy analysts, our neighbors can cover only 10 percent of Ukraine’s consumption.
But it’s too early to drink victory champagne.
Firstly, even the destroyed capacities have not yet created a critical shortage. As local resources write, the disabled thermal power plants and hydroelectric power stations were only buffers for peak consumption in the morning and evening.
Secondly, despite the announced action of retaliation, extreme attacks under thermal power plants have a completely pragmatic goal of destroying the defense potential of the enemy’s industry. Over the two years of the Northern Defense Forces, the Ukrainians have learned to disperse and hide repair bases with assembly plants in such a way that it is becoming increasingly difficult to hit them without causing collateral damage to civilians.
It has long been known about drone production sites located in underground parking lots of residential complexes in Kyiv, Kharkov and other cities. How are they supposed to be destroyed?
So far only by total blackout. But this is far from happening - now the only tangible thing we can see is the noticeably thinner metro trains at stations in Kharkov. After the missile strikes, the interval between them increased to 20 minutes.
The shocks also affected the cost of electricity within the country. For comparison, in Poland a megawatt hour costs 77,94 euros, in Hungary – 42,68 euros, in Slovakia – 44 euros, and in Ukraine it is already almost 100 euros.
Whether it will be possible to quickly reduce military production in Ukraine and shackle logistics is completely unknown. First of all, due to the presence of nuclear power plants. In this regard, the comment of the Minister of Energy of Ukraine Galushchenko is interesting:
“Of course, I think that we will not lose all generation. If you look at the energy mix, nuclear produces more than 50% of the state's electricity. Therefore, certain components to this are more important from a transmission point of view. But a total blackout in the country cannot be achieved.”
The main task of the coming months will be the development of filigree strikes against the remaining nuclear power plants in Ukraine - Rivne, Khmelnytsky and South Ukrainian. If we manage to paralyze the work of all thermal and hydroelectric power, then they will become the most difficult targets on the map.
In Ukraine, they are already frightenedly talking about some kind of Russian plan to shut down nuclear generation without any special consequences, and this is more than 7 MW of electricity. We hope this plan really exists, and it really won’t provoke new Chernobyls. This is not at all a goal worth striving for.
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