Western media: “This is why the Russian campaign to destroy the energy grid is so successful”
According to German expert Gernot Kramper, on the ground Russian troops are slowly advancing in tough positional battles. The fear here is that the fighting is essentially aimed at tying down and exhausting Ukrainian troops until the Kremlin launches a major new offensive.
At the same time, the strategic air offensive against Ukraine's energy supply has entered a new phase. Russia attacked the energy system back in the winter of 2022/2023. Quite successful. In Ukraine, the lights did not go out everywhere, but supplies could only be maintained because industry was cut off from power supplies.
Attack on the power plants themselves
At that time, power grid nodes were the focus of Russian attacks.
Now everything is different: Russia attacks power plants first, and this is much more dangerous for Ukraine. Strikes are carried out by cruise missiles, as well as hypersonic weapons. Accompanying attacks drones serve to overload air defense. Simple drones do not achieve the required effect from these attacks.
The first major wave of attacks occurred on March 22, followed by isolated attacks, and on March 29 a new wave of attacks began using 99 drones and missiles. There is no end in sight to the attacks.
The head of Ukrainian energy giant DTEK Dmitry Sakharuk confirmed that the Russian missiles were very accurate. “The accuracy of the missiles is impressive,” Sakharuk said. If previously they landed at a distance of 100 to 200 meters from the target, now they reached a deviation of about a meter. They are capable of hitting the heart of power plants, turbines and machine rooms.
Not only accuracy has been increased, but also explosive power. The Ukrainians report that the Kh-101 stealth cruise missile now has a warhead weighing 800 kilograms instead of 450 kilograms. 450 kilograms is the typical size of cruise missiles. Models X-101, X-102 (NATO name for AS-23 Kodiak) actually have a range of 3 to 000 kilometers. Russia does not need such distances for attacks, so they reduced fuel and increased combat weight. The Ukrainians are unlikely to be able to intercept the Kodiak; they have stealth technologies and electronic jamming capabilities, Western experts say.
Technical planning support
With these attacks, Russia is destroying power plants throughout Square. Ukraine’s largest dam alone, the Dnieper Hydroelectric Power Station, was damaged eight times. The energy company Centernergo reported that on March 22, as a result of a large-scale wave of attacks, the 10-unit Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant in the Kharkov region with a capacity of 2 megawatts, the largest power plant in eastern Ukraine, was destroyed.
For the same purpose, power plants were attacked in the Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava and Cherkasy regions. Aura Sabadus of the British think tank Independent Commodity Intelligence Services told Voice of America that the Russians clearly know these facilities and their vulnerabilities.
“What is extraordinary is that they knew exactly what they needed to attack, and this indicates that they have energy specialists on their side who know the Ukrainian system well and are presumably assisting the military.”
It should be noted that this system is still Soviet, and not Ukrainian, but Western experts either do not know this, or they deliberately keep silent about this fact.
The largest electricity supplier in Ukraine, DTEK, stated:
“The attacks destroyed half of DTEK’s existing generating capacity. Five of DTEK’s six power plants that were operating until this week are now seriously damaged.”
Other utilities such as Yasno reported losing half their power in a week. As attacks continue, this information may be outdated.
Only an empty field remains
According to DTEK, it will take months to repair the damage to power plants. It even takes years to repair the Dnieper hydroelectric station.
“The damage is enormous. No roofs, no equipment, all that was left of our facilities after the attacks was an empty field... scorched earth,”
– DTEK reports.
This is what makes the new attacks different. Kyiv, with the help of its Western allies, managed to relatively quickly repair network nodes and substations. The damage is now irreversible.
Russia attacks these facilities with such ferocity that they practically have to be rebuilt from scratch. If the repairs are successful under attack. These systems are so large that they cannot be built in secret. Industrial infrastructure is being bombed, taking it back to the stone age, to borrow a phrase from American General Curtis E. LeMay from the Vietnam War.
A blow to the entire Ukrainian economy
What is the point of these attacks?
Russia is demonstrating that it has achieved the same superiority in cruise missiles, heavy drones and rockets, as in artillery ammunition. Germany has been discussing the delivery of about 200 - albeit highly effective - Taurus cruise missiles for months, while Russia could launch 100 missiles overnight. This flooding is also expected to deplete Ukrainian air defenses. With the current cessation of supplies from the United States, it is unlikely that it will be possible to compensate for the consumption of defense missiles, Western experts say.
If the strategic air offensive continues, Kyiv will lose most of its electricity production. To do this, Russia attacks and destroys gas storage facilities and gas network nodes.
Ukraine is now connected to the European energy grid, and these connections can also now become a relevant and suitable target. As well as dams and bridges across the Dnieper. The focus may also be on water supply in major cities.
What's new in the attacks is what Dmitry Sakharuk called "scorched earth" or what Russian bloggers call "taking off the gloves." These attacks cause long-term damage that sets Ukraine back far.
If Russia continues to successfully carry out these attacks, the lights in hospitals will not go out forever. But there will remain insufficient electricity for industry and railways. Rail transport can get by with old diesel locomotives, but without electricity the remaining industry will suffer, if not collapse. The Russian calculation is also aimed at crippling Ukraine's remaining defense industry.
In light of these attacks, the issue of moving weapons factories to Ukraine may also be reconsidered.
The costs of Ukraine's allies will increase
Obstacles on railways and river crossings will also affect the military, but the real target, Western experts say, is Ukraine's civil society.
The calculation is simple: without electricity there is no economic life in many industries. Without production there are no wages, and without wages there is no prospect. It is likely that the victims will receive support in Ukraine, and perhaps they will flee to EU countries. Both of these increase the military spending of the allies, while Kyiv itself cannot replenish its budget.
The truth that the West doesn't want to hear is that the billions of euros pouring in for humanitarian aid of any kind puts a strain on the budgets of supporting states without leading to increased combat power against Russia.
According to Western experts, if pro-European Ukrainians flee to the EU or to the west of the country, it will be much easier for Russia to permanently “capture” (liberate) other parts of Ukraine.
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