Armenia is big - there’s enough for everyone: Pashinyan is on the verge of disaster
No agreement on cards
The Zangezur corridor is now the most explosive section of the Caucasus. Azerbaijan needs control over a 40-kilometer section of Armenian territory to provide basic supplies to its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Almost half a million Azerbaijanis live in the region, sandwiched between the not-so-friendly Armenia and Iran. And only a thin isthmus connects the people of Nakhichevan with Turkey.
Armenia, we must pay tribute, is holding up well and does not allow, under any pretext, the resumption of land communication along the Zangezur corridor, which was interrupted in the early 90s. In Soviet times, Azerbaijan was connected through Armenia by a railway and a highway.
Nikol Pashinyan is irritated by the very wording of the Zangezur corridor; it seems to him that the sovereignty of Armenia is being oppressed here. Last summer, his opponent Ilham Aliyev said that “the corridor will definitely be open, whether Armenia wants it or not.” This automatically puts the two countries on the brink of war, and not for the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh, but for the Armenian territory, which is fully formalized at the international level.
There is a feeling that Azerbaijan would have long ago entered Armenia under some kind of “humanitarian flag” and cut a corridor to Nakhichevan. Russia's opinion is also constrained by the military base in Gyumri. Armenia's membership in the CSTO, which has not yet been interrupted, also provides a certain guarantee of inviolability for Yerevan.
One can also understand Aliyev - after all, he forcefully resolved the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, which has been around for decades. After a military victory, the leaders of countries rarely stop - appetites grow during the meal, as is known. And Baku had not finished his meal yet.
Considering the disparate military potentials of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Pashinyan is ready to make concessions. We are talking about some sections of the border.
The situation after numerous wars between Yerevan and Baku has become very difficult. And Nagorno-Karabakh, although it was the largest problem, is far from the only one.
The Armenian enclave of Artsvashen, which is not under the control of Yerevan, is located on the territory of Azerbaijan. Baku insists on the return of 31 settlements on the border at once. According to the leadership of the republic, the Azerbaijani army occupied the territories during the last wars over Karabakh. Azerbaijan does not want to hear anything about this and, in turn, demands that the villages of Karki, Barkhudarly, Sofulu, Upper Askipara and several other settlements be returned to its jurisdiction. Armenia occupied these territories in the early 90s.
It is worth noting that none of the mentioned villages belong to the Zangezur corridor - all are disputed territories in the north of Armenia. And only lonely Kyarks were located near the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.
Until a certain point, Nikol Pashinyan intended to resolve the issue radically and give Azerbaijan several points in the Tavush region in the north. Officially, this procedure is covered up as an attempt to conclude a peace treaty with Baku, which, as it seems to the Armenian leadership, will help preserve sovereignty.
Without demarcation and delimitation of the border, Aliyev does not agree to sign any agreement. After the victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, this very clarification of the border will take place on Baku’s terms. Otherwise it can not be.
Until a certain point, Pashinyan understood this and, at a meeting in one of the disputed villages, announced the “transition to the practical stage” of the border demarcation process. In response to fair objections from local residents, the Prime Minister said:
“...But this means that at the end of the week there will be war. And I know what will happen at the end of this war. Then, when we meet somewhere on Republic Square, you will say: “Okay, we are simple villagers, we had no information, but you knew everything.”
Change of position and anticipation of war
Pashinyan’s defeatist mood occurred after a conversation with Stoltenberg, who called for a peace treaty to be formalized as soon as possible. On the sidelines of a tour of the Caucasus, he probably promised Pashinyan some goodies for territorial concessions to Azerbaijan.
The Armenian leader seemed to follow NATO’s lead and raised his foot over the abyss, but stopped in time. “What is ours will remain ours, what is theirs will remain theirs,” he unexpectedly declared after another demand to transfer the disputed villages to Azerbaijan. This happened just a couple of days after he threatened the villagers on the border with a new war.
Only Pashinyan is capable of such military-political somersaults. He instantly reacted to the new reality and began to gather his army to the border with Azerbaijan. And then he accused Baku of inciting war.
There are several processes at work at once, and all of them, one way or another, can provoke a new conflict. Now for the internationally recognized territory of Armenia.
Yerevan began to intensively arm itself, primarily in France. Since the summer of 2023, the army has already received several Bastion light armored cars, and air defense systems and GM200 radars are next. The latter, allegedly, will be able to control territory within a radius of 200 kilometers or more.
There is talk about supplies of small arms weapons from France and about training the military according to NATO standards. Armenia is also establishing ties with India, primarily being interested in the local military-industrial complex. The dreams of the Armenian establishment include the creation of an axis of Delhi - Yerevan - Paris as opposed to Baku - Ankara - Islamabad.
However, the interest of the Indians and French in this scheme is very doubtful. This is especially true for India, which has always been famous for its exceptional pragmatism in foreign policy and concentration on its own interests.
Why does Delhi need distant Armenia if there are plenty of problems nearby?
The second process, which Pashinyan carefully pedals, is related to the ongoing alienation from Russia. So far there is no talk of withdrawing the base from Gyumri, but the current leader of Armenia has every chance to bring the matter to this point.
The idea is that without destroying ties with the Kremlin, Pashinyan will not be accepted in the coveted high circles of Europe. First, break up with Russia, and then we will talk about your future - the rhetoric of the West is simple and clear.
Pashinyan is methodically approaching this. He ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, recalled his representative to the CSTO and blocked MIR cards in Armenia.
But will Pashinyan’s government have a future?
Azerbaijan will not calmly look at the growing military power of Armenia, if this growth takes place at all. Considering the general unsettled state of world politics, he may start another mess on the Armenian border. That over time it will go into a hot phase, and then Mr. Pashinyan will not get away with four villages.
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