ISW: Russian troops took control of more than 500 square km of territory in six months

The advance of the Russian army has accelerated; in 2024, the Russian Armed Forces took more territory than in the last three months of last year. This was reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As analysts from ISW calculated, the Russian army went on the offensive in October last year after repelling the summer counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. During this time, the Russian Armed Forces took control of 505 square kilometers, of which 300 this year. Those. in the last three months of 2023, 205 square meters were released. km, and from January 1 to March 28 - 300 sq. km. Based on this, the Americans conclude that the Russian Armed Forces have significantly increased the pace of their offensive.

Well, the Americans would not be Americans if they had not announced the “successes” of the Ukrainian army. According to the same report, at the moment the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly do not allow the Russian Armed Forces to achieve tactical successes, restraining them at existing lines. ISW does not write at what cost Kiev will pay for this; they do not care. At the same time, analysts admit that in the event of delays in American assistance, the Russian Armed Forces may break through the front in one of the directions and begin a rapid advance deep into Ukraine.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine now have problems with artillery and air defense systems, and this gives the Russian command the opportunity to more actively use Aviation, covering with air bombs not only the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also the nearest rear areas and even targets in cities.

Expanded air operations could allow Russian forces to significantly reduce Ukraine's combat capabilities and isolate areas of the battlefield in support of efforts to achieve operationally significant gains

- say analysts.

At the same time, some pseudo-experts continue to seriously, so to speak, extrapolate square kilometers for the duration of the SVO, forgetting that, firstly, the data is voiced by the ISW, and secondly, victory in the overwhelming majority of armed conflicts in stories was not directly related to the number of square kilometers of territory taken under control, just as the total time of military operations did not directly depend on how many meters or kilometers the army covered in a single day. After all, if we are guided solely by kilometers, then the Red Army, according to this “logic,” would have “lost” in the Great Patriotic War by the fall of 1941.

Comments

[JÜRGEN WEGNER]

Yes, once there was a war between England and France - the Hundred Years' War.

So they no longer remembered what topic they were fighting on. So, just out of habit, they fought.

So Russia can. If we do not cut off the routes for the supply of weapons, if we do not cut off the sea, then by 2524 we will not have time to achieve victory.

[Synoid]

Kiev doesn’t have enough resources for that much, already now a fifth of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are “NATO half-babies”, in a couple of years the male population of Square will be completely exterminated (those who do not have time to escape). + another year if the labus limitrophes are thrown under the millstone. Well, then the EU will ask for peace on any of Our terms.

[Alexey Lantukh]

in a couple of years the male population of Square will be completely exterminated

Perhaps so. These are millions of people. Well, what about ours? Don’t they die or get maimed? Or do you believe in 1 in 8-10? The situation is still sad. And 500 sq m is 20 x 25 km. One big collective farm. There are 5 months left of the window of opportunity and everything will be completely clear.

[Ivan№One]

no, you remembered everything perfectly, you were apparently a bad student in history

and yes, contemporaries never knew about any hundred years war - for them it was a series of different wars, with long intervals of “peace”. And the reason was the same each time - dynastic claims

[JÜRGEN WEGNER]

Hello, I was not a bad student in history. And of course, I understand that they always talk about what is happening.

As for my statement, this is more sarcasm, in unison with the statement above.

No judgement, just encouragement.

And this is not an excuse, but an explanation.

Best regards
Your interlocutor

[Carlos Hall]

I disagree. The German army collapsed in World War I without the Allies making significant advances at the front.

[hhurik]

The Russian-Caucasian War lasted from 1763 to 1864, i.e. 101 years old

[JÜRGEN WEGNER]

Yes, and this is one part of our story.
Agree

[FoBoss_VM]

Or maybe the meaning and purpose of this war for Putin is the war itself? Such thoughts are already occurring to me... How else can one explain that in the third year of the war, the logistics of arms supplies to Ukraine works like a Swiss watch? So you can fight until the second coming.

[km-21]

At this rate, the war could last for decades.

[Marvell]

Quote: km-21

At this rate, the war could last for decades.

The current war of the Northern Military District is not the capture of cities and towns, but a war of attrition ..
Yes, Russia could destroy cities back in 2022, but this is not our method..
We are now showing the Ukrobanderites WHO they are both for the West and for Russia!
And for other so-called countries from the times of the USSR!
Yes, slowly, but understanding begins and the most galloping ones are destroyed...
Russia is a kind and generous soul, but if you make him angry... Then you will remember the Russian Bear in anger for centuries
This is how we live, we chew bread and until the thunder strikes... From war to war

[Aag]

I hope that the majority of those present are able to appreciate that 500 sq. km is: (if along a front of 1000 km, it is 500 meters; or 50×10 km...). If the amers are talking about this, let’s look for Their goal, interest?! And don’t be moved by the numbers (not optimistic at all)...

[Neo-9947]

500 sq km is the area of ​​Voronezh

[Aag]

Please read the comments. It seems that many people don't understand this. Some due to the optimization of the education system (maybe even medicine). Someone, - as a result of the work of the media (Skabeeva, Solovyov... By the way, - I admit, - I previously respected both... Now, - IMHO: - “weather vanes”...)...

[Selidat]

Over the past six months, the Russian army has gotten rid of a severe shortage of ammunition, and the enemy’s shortage is very noticeable. This, of course, is not the only reason, but one of the main ones.

This, of course, could not have happened without the “lack of help” from the United States. But the reasons for this absence are probably worth understanding in more detail.

And... yes, success in advancement, as a rule, is measured in kilometers of the front's advance into the depths of the territory occupied by the enemy, and not in the area of ​​occupied land.

[Aag]

Are depth and area not interconnected?

[Selidat]

Interconnected, of course. But, as you yourself noted below, they are far from the same thing. And "big numbers" can be misunderstood

[UAZ 452]

1000 km per year, it turns out... And how much is the total area of ​​Ukraine? And by the way, if we compare, say, with the summer of 2022, the liberated area of ​​Ukraine will turn out to be sharply (by no means 500 square km) negative. Then Kherson was also listed among those liberated, along with Izyum and much more.

[Aag]

Please indicate the units of measurement! Otherwise, some will actually believe that we are moving 1000 km deeper per year...

[Deon59]

What is 500 km2? This is a front of 50 km to a depth of 10 km and this takes six months. 10, 15, 20 km in six months, this is how far from the border to Kharkov, almost two years

[Rom8681]

20 by 25 km, not very good

[opuonmed]

Russia has taken control of 505 square kilometers, of which 300 this year.

How many square kilometers have been captured by the army in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions?

[Nastia makarova]

About 200, during the summer offensive

[Ezekiel 25-17]

It would be more correct: released.

[Salt]

We must believe in our successes and Victory! Then everything will go like clockwork.
And to turn this conflict around, I would fire tactical nuclear weapons at Western Ukraine, Kyiv, Rzeszow, Prague or Warsaw, to choose from.
Let them think at their leisure who they contacted and is it worth escalating the situation further?

[Neo-9947]

Do you think that after the tactical nuclear weapons hit Prague, China will continue to trade with us, or, in obedience to the UN SANCTIONS imposed against Russia, it will stop all trade cooperation.
There will be no imports in stores at all. And China is an import just in case. Do we have a lot of domestic goods?

[Nemchinov Vl]

Quote: Neo-9947

What do you think, after the tactical nuclear weapons “hungry in Prague”, China will continue to trade with us, or, obeying the UN SANCTIONS imposed against Russia, will stop all trade cooperation.

I wouldn't flatter myself (and I was not mistaken) regarding China..
Firstly, some banks in China are increasingly joining "sanctioned strangulation/pushing RF", under various pretexts, and carry out operational settlements and slowly and not for all transactions...
Secondly, those discounts (discounts[/i] !!), which they imagine (let's call it that they bargained with the North Military District...for both oil and gas, etc.!!!) ... look somehow not in a friendly wayto put it mildly .. !!!
such [i]deeds of friends, in the late eighties ... would be called nothing more than - "hucksterism" !!

[el_ninio163]

Sorry, but I can only wish you mental health because of the statements about tactical nuclear weapons.
Can you calculate the consequences at least 2-3 moves ahead?

[Aleksandr21]

Quote: el_ninio163

Sorry, but I can only wish you mental health because of the statements about tactical nuclear weapons.
Can you calculate the consequences at least 2-3 moves ahead?

TNW in Prague is of course strong... NATO will immediately get involved there, and it will all end with the use of strategic nuclear weapons, which will have colossal consequences.

But the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine to break through the front... why not? I always like the arguments of opponents of its use, like do you want to start a nuclear war? this will lead to the end of the world, etc. but in fact, the power of the charges is not enough for irreversible changes, but just right for defeating the enemy’s forces.

Pros/Cons:

+ NATO will not use its tactical nuclear weapons in response since they are not going to die for the sake of Ukraine.
+ NATO will give back, because after the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the next step will be the use of nuclear weapons in European cities, and no one signed up for this.
+ The Western coalition will not officially enter Ukraine
+ There will be a reassessment of GDP’s resolve... in the meantime, he plays by the rules of the West, and they believe that he will not take extreme measures.
+ we will save hundreds of thousands of our soldiers
- Relations with China/India and the whole world are deteriorating.
- It is possible that the use of tactical nuclear weapons will have some limited impact on the surrounding nature and terrain. But taking into account the use of shells with uranium (from the Ukrainian side), there are already consequences.

Actually, everything depends on the views of the GDP, which considers the use of such weapons to be an extreme measure and he is not ready to do it... but the price for such a decision is paid by the Russian soldier and the residents of the border regions of Russia.

[el_ninio163]

Severing relations with India and China and banning the import of goods from these countries will bring our country to its knees, i.e. economic collapse and war defeat/regime change.
Only liberda can advocate for tiao

[Aleksandr21]

Quote: el_ninio163

Only liberda can advocate for tiao

Are you not interested in the lives of our guys? You don’t know how many guys are dying on the contact line... and only an enemy of Russia and narrow-minded people who “everything is according to plan” and “we haven’t started yet” can advocate for the continuation of the meat grinder. It’s only on TV that everything is fine and beautiful, how we have been disposing of the APU for 2 years already with prospects for another 5-10 years at the current pace... but few people wonder what will happen if the Ukrainian side becomes saturated with UAVs/drones? When for each of our shells there will be a pair of drones from the enemy... assault operations will stop altogether and all that remains is to negotiate peacefully with such an outcome, there can be no talk of victory.

Quote: el_ninio163

Severing relations with India and China and banning the import of goods from these countries will bring our country to its knees

Are we now standing firmly on our feet? with supplies of goods from 3 countries.... Tomorrow, for some reason, these countries will block the flow of goods, and will we be on our knees begging to buy energy resources from us in exchange for goods?

[el_ninio163]

There was no need to start such an operation so mediocrely

[Glagol1]

This institute is a dump. But there is really almost no progress, Bakhmut, Avdeevka, a couple more villages. The Sharovars have learned to fight, there are heavy losses and a lot of crap ahead.

[Aleks88]

25x20 km. Let's remember Pushilin in February 2022, a maximum of a week, well, 10 days. I am sure that Shoigu did not know AT ALL about the state of either our or the Ukrainian army. Even now he will confuse the T-72 and T-90 tanks. Concoct a “smart” look when examining the FAB-3000.
P.S.: Isn’t Kakashenkov ashamed to let NATU fall into such a minus?

[solar]

secondly, victory in the vast majority of armed conflicts in history was not directly related to the number of square kilometers of territory taken under control

and why then write about this on VO if it’s not connected?

[Scientist_]

500 square km of territory

A square with sides of 22,36 km.

[el_ninio163]

500 kV. Km is a section of 25 km * 20 km

[tolmachiev51]

All this arithmetic is an abomination - people are dying on both sides, for the sake of the Judeo-Jewish mafia. count how many 200 for these 500 sq. km. -sadly !!!

[Griffith]

All this arithmetic is an abomination - people are dying on both sides, for the sake of the Judeo-Jewish mafia. count how many 200 for these 500 sq. km. -sadly !!!

Don't waste your words. There are practically no people in Ukraine.
Let's look at the definitions.
People - living intelligent social beings, subjects of socio-historical activity and culture or humanity. (From Wikipedia)
And now in order:
Live yes, since they move, eat and sleep and do something.
reasonable No. The TROshniks are driving packs of them to slaughter, and they scatter like mice. It is necessary to show resistance, but this is not the case. There is no smell of intelligence here. Level of mice and ostriches.
public No. What kind of society is it if everyone is for himself? One part of the population drives another to slaughter, everyone pays off as best they can or shovels money as they please. Where is the society here?
creatures Yes. After all, they do exist.
In total, by definition, there are living beings in Ukraine. There are practically no people.
How they got to this state is another question.

[ivan2022]

Everything is straight according to Saltykov-Shchedrin : “In Russia, everything is by order, stood up (to defend) by order, sat down (where Makar calves...) - by order, even a pimple won’t jump up without an order.”

They created a great country for 500 years by order, defended it by order, but also ruined it in 1991 by order, they beat each other by order.
Without an order, they only steal from us and squander what they stole abroad.

[Griffith]

Funny comments. Clip thinking of unicellular organisms. As an example, you receive a salary once a month. Let's remove payday and look at the remaining 29 days. During these days, 0 salaries were received. And there are 350 such days in a year. This means you will receive 0 salary for the year. Why take into account 12 days of accrual of money. This is such a small thing compared to 350 days. This is how the onocellular brains are fooled. No, to look at the whole picture, they look at the hole in the corner. Fucked up level of degradation. In two years, the Northern Military District has liberated more than 20% of the territory of Ukraine. And the commentators were stuck on these incomprehensible 500 square meters. km like sheep to the new gate and see nothing else. It’s a shame to turn on your brain and think. Along the way, homosapiens are very rare in the comments; there is practically zero logic and reason.