Parisian loach. Terrorist attack in Tiraspol
In the material about the Parisian loach, I examined in some detail the actions of France to strengthen its influence in Ukraine and the leading role of Paris in the creation of the southern “military Schengen”. It is clear that due to some features of the media, I was forced to ignore some questions or leave them for the second part of the article.
In particular, I practically did not touch upon the fact why today we are being so actively pushed to launch an active, rapid attack on Kharkov. Many readers have noticed this oddity. It’s as if they are telling us:
“Russians, why do you need to break into the defenses in the Kherson area? Why carry out a complex operation to cross the Dnieper? Why do you even need Kherson now? Here is an open field, where there are only conditionally constructed fortifications!
We understand that your strategy is not to seize new territories, but to deplete Ukraine. And the speed of your advance is not as high as it might be, this is just a tactic. “You are forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to carry out small counterattacks and thereby incur huge losses.”
Indeed, after the fall or even just the siege of Kharkov, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to withdraw reserves from other fronts, it will be possible to cross the Dnieper in more comfortable conditions. Everyone around us is strenuously instilling this in us. Agree, it looks quite strange from the outside. Our enemy helps our General Staff with advice.
I have previously written about how important it is for Macron to preserve Odessa as a logistics hub. How this helps France at least look like one of the leaders in Europe. And the question of “earning money” is important. And somehow these two thoughts themselves connected with each other. Simply because in the event of an attack on Kharkov, the fate of which is already clear, we will be forced to work less actively in the south.
And then France has the opportunity, without directly getting involved in a war, to eliminate the main obstacle to the normal functioning of the southern Schengen area. I mean the PMR issue is very appetizing for Ukraine. Kyiv has long been interested in the arsenals of Transnistria.
Paris views Transnistria as a direct land route to Ukraine and a springboard for direct contact with Russia. The situation is approximately the same as that which arose in 1939 after Germany captured Poland.
Let's try to analyze the possible development of the situation.
Will the French open a “second front” with the help of Ukrainians?
There are no shells, but there are shells
Talks about seizing the arsenals of Transnistria began even before the start of the Northern Military District. Events in Donbass and the presence of Soviet weapons forced Kyiv to raise this issue with Moldova and the West. Let me remind you that the war in Transnistria ended in 1992. Weapons and ammunition were imported even earlier, during the USSR. It is clear that their expiration date has long expired, and they have become simply dangerous for use.
But who today, when the situation with Soviet ammunition is critical, will remember this? Misfires, spontaneous explosions, etc. are not a problem now. One calculation more, one less. Who is counting Ukrainian losses today? The Ukrainian Armed Forces even abandon the “three hundredths,” not to mention the “two hundredths.” So the question is stark for Kyiv.
At the very beginning of the Northern Military District, Ukrainian and Western headquarters began to develop a plan for the defense of Transnistria from the Russian invasion. Kyiv seriously believed that the main blow of the Russian troops would be directed south, towards Odessa. With a clear goal - to break through a land corridor in the PMR. However, as the operation progressed, the fear of attack disappeared.
And here, as you can see, quite a long time ago, a third player appeared on the scene. The Americans became interested in Odessa. It is there that the future base is planned to be created fleet USA on the Black Sea. Following instructions from Washington, France began to develop the southern direction of military logistics from Europe to Ukraine. The United States was building new military infrastructure for its military base. As was their custom, they did it with someone else’s hands.
After the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counter-offensive last year and the start of the election campaign, the United States cooled down on the idea of building a military base in Odessa. It was then that the leadership of Ukraine passed to the “deputy” of the United States - Britain. And France was closely involved in Odessa. At the same time, Macron and Zelensky began holding numerous consultations on military issues.
The result of such consultations was the Macron plan. The two presidents became allies. Although each of them pursues its own goals, which are in no way related to the goals of the other side. I wrote in detail about the goals of France in a previous article.
Starting Macron's plan or testing the enemy's reaction
On March 17, a military facility was attacked on the territory of a military unit in Tiraspol, PMR. The drone hit an MI-8MT helicopter at the airfield. As a result of the impact, the helicopter burned out. There are no casualties. And the helicopter has not been used for a long time. At least that’s what the Bureau of Reintegration of Moldova reported.
Tiraspol almost immediately announced that the drone was flying from the direction of Odessa. But Ukraine, like Moldova earlier, denies its involvement in sabotage.
I repeat, the sabotage was carried out against the backdrop of numerous reports from Kyiv that Emmanuel Macron was going to arrive in Kyiv and discuss issues of military cooperation between France and Ukraine. This fact forced analysts to connect both events.
Let me remind you that an elite French special forces unit is located in Romania. And the Romanian and part-time President of Moldova, Sandu, finally decided that the Romanians, if necessary, could use the territory of Moldova to deploy their armed forces.
A reasonable question arises: will the Ukrainian Armed Forces be able to capture the PMR in a short time?
How can the operation be performed?
It seems to me that if French and Romanian troops block the PMR from the west, then the task is quite feasible. Of course, if there are sufficient forces and means on the part of Ukraine.
The width of the PMR from west to east is only from 3 to 40 km. Moreover, the length of the border with Ukraine is more than 400 km. It is simply impossible to organize a serious defense with the funds available to Tiraspol. But delivering help from Russia is quite problematic. The time limit is too short. It is difficult to count on the success of the defense in such a balance of forces. That is why Tiraspol is bombarding Moscow with requests to increase the contingent of Russian troops in the PMR.
Will they start or won't they start?
On the one hand, the situation in Transnistria is developing in favor of the alliance of the two presidents. Here they are, these huge arsenals of weapons and ammunition, which can solve many problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is the direct route to Odessa. This is an ideal transport route for land supplies of equipment and ammunition to the south of Ukraine.
On the other hand, if for Ukraine conducting military operations against Russian troops is quite acceptable, for France this is fraught. It is not for nothing that President Putin directly stated that if any country talks about the absence of red lines in relation to Russia, then in Russia these same lines will disappear. I think this is a fairly direct response to Macron’s remarks.
It is doubtful that even if the French simply block the western border of the PMR, no clashes will occur there. So much for the lack of red lines. And then how God puts it on your soul. It is doubtful that this will go unpunished for France.
The worst thing for Macron in this case is that he acts not as a NATO member, but as a Frenchman. In this case, the very notorious 5th clause of the agreement simply does not apply. One on one with Russia... Paris against Moscow. Most likely, there will be no global war, but a couple of strikes on French military targets will deprive Macron of power forever.
So is this worth some Ukraine?
But exclude the use of nuclear weapons It’s also not possible on both sides. Despite the fact that Russian and French nuclear arsenals are not comparable, the countries may well exchange strikes on critical facilities.
This is probably why almost all European leaders abandoned the French president so quickly. The West understands that the very first blow will be fatal for Europe, politically and economically...
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