An operation doomed to failure
Today I simply cannot help but touch upon the topic of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive on the Belgorod region. The Internet is literally teeming with messages. For every taste. Here you can choose one side or the other at your own discretion. Ukraine reports some kind of seizures and panic in the camp of the Russian troops. Our bloggers, on the contrary, write about the defeat of the attackers and effective resistance to saboteurs from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
I think I won’t be revealing any secret if I say that our command had known about the preparation of such a provocation for a long time. Even at a time when all attention was focused on the battles in Avdeevka, it became clear that preparations were underway for a major provocation on the border. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to hide the preparations for this operation. Concentrating such a number of personnel in one place, and up to 3 thousand people are concentrated there, it is impossible to carry out an operation unnoticed.
Naturally, such concentration attracted the attention of our intelligence agencies. It was then that it became known about Zelensky’s plans to make an attack on Belgorod. Now many are wondering why Kyiv needs all this. But if we consider not clashes on the border, but a breakthrough to the regional center and its possible capture, then everything will fall into place.
Can you imagine the headlines in Western publications if this happened? “The Russian army is a soap bubble, which even the Ukrainian army, weakened by the disruption of Western supplies, can pierce” - and further in the same vein. In the West, everyone will again believe in the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will stop delaying deliveries.
In addition, the operation was planned as an act of intimidation for residents of new Russian regions and those who are now awaiting liberation. Do you remember how the abandonment of Kherson affected people’s mood? Add to this a series of terrorist attacks against government officials, media personalities and simply famous people. And this is also now in the plans of Zelensky and Budanov.
Well, I’ll reveal one more detail. Many readers did not pay much attention to reports that the FSB carried out a number of operations to detain SBU agents in a number of cities. Well, they detained and detained. Thanks to our specialists for figuring it out and catching it. But there is another component here.
For the most part, they caught those who had previously been outside the radar of the intelligence services, that is, agents from the “sleeping” category. Simply put, Budanov’s department gave the command to activate the agents and assign tasks to the agents according to their competence and capabilities. Alas, today it cannot be said that all agents have been identified and neutralized. There is still a lot of work to be done in this direction.
Why was the operation doomed to failure?
Yes exactly. This “throw on Belgorod” was initially doomed to failure. Many people have probably seen a Ukrainian tank hit by a mine. Why did this happen? Or, when preparing the operation, Ukrainian intelligence did not take the necessary actions to identify, among other things, minefields? Rest assured, I conducted and compiled fairly detailed maps of the combat area. And the mine ended up there simply because the fighters on our side did not sit idly by.
But first, about those who are now fighting off the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. About those soldiers and commanders who are there now. I will quote a story from a military medic, which was published on the Kotsnews channel. I think there is nothing to add to the words of a man through whose hands dozens of soldiers pass every day:
“It’s hot, Sasha, it’s hot. The men really fight. The slightly wounded refuse hospitalization and remain in battle. We crumble crests in packs, you can see heaps of crap with 200 yellow armbands. They don’t take them. And a rod. We crumble them again. Arta, aviation, Tanks, infantry, they work great, they don’t let you approach. But the rod seems to be under something. In general, this is an example of courage and bravery. There is not a single five-hundredth person who invented a disease for himself, etc. Everyone stands in their positions. It subsides in the evening and at night, but early in the morning they will try again... We will crumble again..."
Now about why such a serious “fist” suddenly ran into the “wall”. I started with the tank simply because probably everyone saw the footage of its explosion. But the matter was organized much more seriously and smarter. This operation will probably also be written about in military textbooks. stories.
The task of defending the border was assigned to units of the Russian Guard. It was from these units that the best crews of the UAVs of the Aerospace Forces and the special forces of the Russian Guard were sent to the proposed offensive area. In a fairly short period of time, the area was thoroughly studied and measures were taken to organize defense, including that mine against the tank.
Then everything is simple. Having worked out the terrain in detail, the commanders moved their units to the best positions for defense. True, the tasks of the Russian Guard were assigned to the army. Stand and grind. The soldiers stand, and the “meat grinder” is organized by the artillerymen and VKS pilots. Which, in principle, is what is happening now. Ukrainians are not saved even by the “combat chemicals” that the Armed Forces of Ukraine intensively feed their fighters with.
I cannot help but mention one more circumstance that contributed to the failure of Kyiv’s operation. This is... an attack on Avdeevka! In war, everything is interconnected. I have already announced above the number of Ukrainian fighters who were transferred to the area of the future offensive. There was another action by the Ukrainian Armed Forces command. During the preparation of the operation, the command was forced to send some of the arriving units to Avdeevka. Even if not significantly, it still weakened the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping.
With the result that
I think that the fact that the operation failed and turned into a waste of personnel and equipment has already been understood in Kyiv. Now the task of Ukrainian headquarters is how to remove units from under fire. How to complete the operation without image losses for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian commanders have already realized that they are simply being driven to slaughter like cattle. There are almost no options to grab anything.
Obviously, the easiest way that comes to mind is to simply stop attacking and go on the defensive in the hope that the Russians will not launch a counter-offensive on an unprepared defense. Theoretically, it is possible to put these thoughts into practice. But practically?
Let me remind you that Russian President Vladimir Putin has long set the task of creating a demilitarized zone in order to prevent shelling of border areas. This statement is also remembered in Kyiv. It turns out that the Ukrainians themselves are forcing the Russians to carry out the president’s instructions. Defense of unprepared positions is just another meat grinder, nothing more. Yes, it will help to delay the defeat for some time, but in essence?..
Naturally, much of what has been done has not yet been made public. Much is simply unknown even to the participants in the events. This is called the art of war, the science of winning, as Alexander Suvorov called the strategists.
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