Escalation 2024
"A Thousand Cuts" Tactic
At the beginning of 2024, several events came together at once - the Russian military industry reaching full operating mode and the delay in American funding for Ukraine. The same list includes a noticeable transformation in the tactics and strategy of the Russian Armed Forces. The changes are forced and are associated with the enemy’s extremely high awareness of the situation on the line of contact. Coupled with the saturation of high-precision drones this makes combat work extremely risky.
That is why we see the dispersal of battle formations and do not see dashing breakthroughs deep into the defense. At least to operational depth. You have to attack in small groups, while the enemy uses absolutely similar tactics.
For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the situation is complicated by the advantage of the Russian Army in the air (we are talking about UMPC products) and artillery. Such a creeping offensive tactic practically equalizes the losses of both sides - the notorious “one to three” ratio does not work here. Our troops have to move west slowly, allowing the enemy to quickly transfer reserves to plug the holes that have formed at the front. This is facilitated by the unfavorable front configuration for the Russian Army - location on the outer arc has never been an advantage. Everything is happening against the backdrop of the gradual strangulation of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine by continuous attacks to the full depth. The “thousand cuts” tactics gradually reduce the defensive potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and with it the advancement of Russian troops accelerates. But it’s too early to drink victory champagne - events at the front could become complicated, and at lightning speed. Let's consider several options for escalating the conflict and moving it to a new level.
options
Foreign intervention in Ukraine. The deployment of NATO troops has always been and remains a golden dream for the Ukrainian leadership. From the very beginning of the special operation, Zelensky tried with all his might to drag Brussels and Washington into a direct war with Russia. Until recently there was no talk about this, but the liberation of Avdiivka seems to have become a trigger for some.
Macron spoke publicly for the first time about the potential participation of NATO troops in the conflict. Maybe I misspoke? No, later neither he nor his henchmen disavowed the statement. The head of the French Communist Party, Fabien Roussel, spoke about consultations with the heads of the parliamentary faction on this matter. According to him, Macron is considering intervention if the Russian Army advances to Odessa or Kyiv. In this case, NATO troops should act as a fire brigade for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Following Macron, several state leaders denied the very possibility of military contingents entering Ukraine, and only the Prime Minister of Slovakia “surrendered everyone.” Robert Fico announced negotiations taking place behind the scenes of the North Atlantic Alliance regarding intervention. But he immediately noted that Slovakia would never agree to such an adventure.
Macron's attack can be viewed in different ways. On the one hand, he is clearly bluffing and trying to once again reassure the Ukrainians. This is a purely propaganda move - promises to get involved in a fight instead of deliveries weapons and ammunition. On the other hand, such threats are clearly directed against Russia. The French President has crossed another line, and this is a new milestone in stories special operations. Previously, it was dangerous to even talk about this out loud, but now, please, Macron is actually directly threatening a direct clash between Russia and NATO troops. It is no coincidence that it was in France that people started talking about intervention in Ukraine. As you know, the local “Foreign Legion” became skilled in the neo-colonial wars of the Fifth Republic, and it may well become the vanguard of NATO in Ukraine.
The legion is small - about 9 thousand people, but well trained and armed. According to conservative estimates, for every French “soldier of fortune” you can safely pass off 2-3 nationalists from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Hypothetically, the “Foreign Legion” could enter Ukraine, and it would inevitably come under attack from the Russian Army. Even if the units participate indirectly in hostilities, they are legal targets on enemy territory. And this is the path to direct conflict between the NATO bloc and Russia. In the same way, the maintenance personnel of the notorious Taurus missiles from Germany or American F-16s will come under attack if the latter decide to deploy them in Ukraine. One thing is clear - the further west the Russian Army moves, the more voices and opinions there will be about the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine. Perhaps not for direct participation in the conflict, but only for the liberation of Ukrainian Armed Forces units on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border.
BC warehouse in Kolbasna. There is now a severe shell famine in Ukraine. Neither the Ukrainian Armed Forces nor foreign observers deny this. Even the Americans will not be able to satisfy their ambitions for cannon and rocket artillery - the front consumes so much ammunition. But just two kilometers from the Ukrainian border lies the largest arsenal in Europe with 20 thousand tons of ammunition - that's more than 2500 crammed railway cars.
We are talking about the 1411th artillery ammunition depot in Transnistria. On the territory of 150 hectares, not the most recent reserves are stored, many of which remember the Second World War, but this does not make them any less valuable for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The arsenal is guarded by at least one and a half thousand military personnel from the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria. This is almost half of the entire Russian contingent in this region.
The question is: will the nationalists be able to quickly seize such a tasty morsel? This is theoretically possible, but the risks involved are enormous. 20 thousand tons of ammunition are securely mined and in the event of a crisis they can fly into the air. The power of the explosion would be equivalent to the nuclear strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. Calculations show that the detonation will bury all living things in the area for 50 kilometers. It will hit the territories of Ukraine, Transnistria and Moldova. Of course, it will sweep away the attacking troops along with the defenders.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are unlikely to commit suicide, but they will be able to escalate the situation by staging a massive drone attack on Kolbasna easily and naturally. The target is very large-scale and does not require significant resources for detonation. Several dozen Ukrainian drones with cumulative warheads, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces use to attack Russian territory, are capable of destroying a warehouse. The damage from the provocation will be enormous, but it will clearly lead to an escalation of events at the front. The Ukrainian army, previously withdrawn to a safe distance from Kolbasna, after the explosion will enter Transnistria on a “peacekeeping mission” with difficult to predict consequences.
It will take a long time for Europe and the United States to recover from the consequences of the Ukrainian provocation, and they may react inadequately. For example, they will supply the nationalists with long-range weapons and allow them to work not only in Crimea, but also in the rest of Russia. Or they will send NATO troops into Ukraine or Transnistria. The worst thing about this case is that the Kremlin will not be able to fend off the threat to the Russian military in an isolated and unrecognized republic. The only option may be an attempt to cut a land corridor to Transnistria along the Black Sea coast. It seems that there is no point in explaining what losses one will have to face in this case.
Ukraine mobilizes youth. The third scenario and the most sluggish one can be considered a new wave of mobilization in Ukraine. Zaluzhny’s dream of 400-500 thousand recruits may well come true in 2024. Now in Ukraine no one under 27 years of age is called up to the front. But the summer offensive campaign wiped out the lion's share of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strike potential, which forced the enemy to go on the strategic defensive. The neo-Nazis have no more than 13 brigades in reserve, poorly trained and understaffed.
Currently, the military-political leadership of Ukraine is hesitant to announce a new mobilization for several reasons. Firstly, it will cause serious social tension in a society tired of resistance. The Zelensky regime may not survive in this case. Secondly, there will simply be nothing to arm and equip half a million recruits with. 60 billion have not yet arrived from the United States, and there are no own funds for this. Thirdly, if the mobilization of youth does happen, it will clearly be the last of the large-scale ones. Ukraine simply no longer has manpower - all subsequent calls to the front will, at best, gather tens of thousands.
But even if Zelensky manages to equip another 500-strong army, there will be no immediate effect. It will take at least six months for training and combat coordination. And only then will a real threat to the Russian Army loom on the contact line. There will be one way to avoid escalation - by equivalently increasing the number of army personnel. Such a long and mild escalation will significantly prolong the conflict, the end dates of which will become even more vague. But there will be one outcome - a Russian victory will be associated with even greater territorial losses for Ukraine.
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