Limited coalitions are trying to save the Zelensky regime
Coalition after coalition
The Russian-Ukrainian front is devouring enormous resources on both sides. We will not learn about the true scale of expenses very soon, but it is already clear that the West story It's very expensive. At the same time, there comes an understanding that the conflict will not end soon. It was not possible to wait for Ukraine’s victory; now the EU countries and the United States will try to delay Russia’s victory as much as possible. Against this background, an attempt to distribute responsibility for the armament of the Zelensky regime seems logical.
From the outside, the events look very beautiful. The states sponsoring Bandera's followers decided to systematize their work and coordinate their efforts. Whoever is strong in what will help Zelensky. Send to the front weapon from our own reserves is no longer possible at the same pace, but it is also not very convenient to launch defense factories.
Despite the declared belligerence, no one in NATO believes in a direct conflict with Russia. Especially by conventional means. If war does break out, it will be nuclear. And here it’s not particularly important how well your work is done. tank factories. Most military enterprises in the West are in private hands. The bosses of the military-industrial complex are rightly wary of investing billions in expanding production now – there is complete uncertainty ahead.
Zelensky firmly rejects any peace negotiations on the Kremlin’s terms, and sponsors are increasingly inclined to freeze the conflict. One story with the consideration of a 60 billion aid package for Ukraine in the US Senate is worth something. Abroad, they are clearly holding back money for Bandera’s supporters. In such conditions, not a single businessman will dare to expand production - in the future, investments simply will not pay off. For example, Rheinmetall, Europe's largest ammunition manufacturer, recently promised to open a plant in Ukraine. In a country under fire from all sides, the Germans intend to create a production of shells - it is rare to hear such an absurd news.
Offices involved in the production of FPV-drones, are forced to disperse their facilities throughout the country so as not to fall under Russian missiles, and there is a whole ammunition factory here. Maybe, in the best traditions of the Third Reich, the production facilities will be hidden underground or in the Ukrainian Carpathians? Be that as it may, they have already created a joint company, in which 49 percent is owned by Ukrainians, and Rheinmetall has a controlling stake.
Does this look like an attempt to help the Banderaites in Ukraine? Of course it looks. Will the Europeans be able to complete the construction of at least the first stage of the plant? The question is rhetorical. It’s better to ask this question to the Turks, who from the very beginning of the special operation threatened to build up Ukraine with factories for the Bayraktars. The creation of many coalitions for military assistance to Ukraine in this vein looks quite logical - if each country contributes its own share of funds, then the end result will be a good piece of candy. But there are plenty of vulnerabilities in distributed production and financing schemes.
Weak Links
When a system consists of many individual nodes, its “combat readiness” is assessed by the stability of the weakest link. On February 14, Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov reported on the creation of an air defense and missile defense coalition. Fifteen states immediately united for this work. Indeed, it is inexpensive for an individual team member to help Ukraine. But what happens when a couple of players drop out? For example, he will quarrel to smithereens with Zelensky, like the Poles. Or, as in Slovakia, the government will change after the next elections. Umerov’s optimism is still premature, especially since the intention to create an air defense and missile defense coalition in the interests of Ukraine has only been officially announced. Promising to get married and actually getting married are slightly different things. Be that as it may, for Ukraine there is nothing better than having one stable air defense supplier than a group of comrades. For example, the Americans could continue pumping up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with their Patriots. Or the Germans would throw in IRIS-T. And it was clear who exactly is to blame if there are not enough air defense systems. But such times are already in the past - the new reality blurs the responsibility for supplying weapons to nationalists.
The formation of a whole host of weapons coalitions is a well-calibrated move by the United States. The Americans have been taking over the NATO bloc for decades, financing the lion's share of the alliance's budget. Donald Trump expressed himself most harshly, threatening to withdraw from the structure if Germany and others do not fulfill the requirements specified in the treaty. For example, spend at least two percent of your own GDP on defense. And now the Americans are trying to spread the considerable costs of the Ukrainian military evenly across all NATO members. The program is carried out within the framework of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is completely controlled by the United States.
This is how coalitions emerge to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with drones, which includes the Swedes, British, Danes, Germans, all the Baltic states and the Dutch. Leads the construction team drones Latvia. There is a demining coalition of twenty members. The artillery coalition is led by France and the United States. Norway and Great Britain are leading the group to support Ukraine at sea. In accordance with modern fashion, there is an IT coalition, the leadership of which is entrusted to Estonia and Luxembourg. Apparently they are not capable of more. Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States lead the air force coalition. By the way, the most useless group that never dared to deliver the F-16s coveted by the nationalists to Ukraine.
Any coalition not only distributes finances and resources among participants, but also spreads responsibility. It’s always easier for the team to refuse Zelensky, saying it’s a collective decision. Does everyone remember how supplies of Leopard tanks were literally squeezed out of Germany by the whole world? This will not work with a coalition - collective responsibility is a very tricky thing.
Let's look at an example from the recent past. We are talking about the armored alliance, which in 2022 included Denmark, Spain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Norway and Portugal. Quite serious powers, only one of which knows how to build its own tanks. The Alliance promised to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with two full battalions of modern Leopard 2A6 tanks from its own reserves. Where these battalions are is still unknown, but definitely not in Ukraine.
The European military-industrial complex is, at best, one third of the American military industry. If previously most of the expenses for Zelensky were borne by the Americans, now the balance is shifting towards the European Union. This is exactly what coalitions are designed for. That is, under no circumstances will the supply of military equipment to Ukraine increase - there simply are not so many factories and money in the Old World. At best, it will be possible to stabilize supplies at the current level. In the worst case scenario for Ukraine, the flow of Western weapons will slowly but surely degrade. And Zelensky will simply have no one to blame for this - collective responsibility is a tricky thing.
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