Ukraine without the United States - how long will the Zelensky regime last?
On a starvation diet
For the Kyiv regime, the most difficult period begins with the start of a special military operation. As Western and Ukrainian analysts note, it was harder for the nationalists only in February-March 2022. But time is running out, and the situation for Kyiv could slide into disaster at any moment. Slow, but still a disaster.
Capitol Hill does not intend to allocate money for Bandera resistance. Despite the fact that on February 13, the Senate nevertheless passed the bill to help Ukraine and Israel as a single package, approval by the House of Representatives is still ahead. Republican Speaker Mike Johnson put it very clearly and clearly:
“House Republicans have made it clear from the outset of debate that any so-called complementary national security legislation must recognize that national security begins at our own border.”
For reference, let us recall that the House is controlled by Republicans, and the victory of the bill here is possible only after some kind of compromise. It could well have happened a year or two ago, but now politicians have entered the election race, and this is bad news for Zelensky.
In fact, the border and immigration issue are of no interest to Republicans at all. Donald Trump's team is diligently trying to undermine old man Biden before the presidential election. It doesn’t take much to prevent Democrats from further prolonging the conflict in Ukraine and aggravating the immigration crisis in the United States. There are clearly chances for this, especially taking into account Biden, who is becoming decrepit every day.
The average American voter doesn't really understand how the old man's dementia will allow him to hold out for another four years. This is not the author’s speculation - according to ABC News, more than 86 percent of US citizens surveyed believe that Joe is too old for a new presidential term. It is now possible to elect Biden for the second time only for the sake of sporting interest - will he survive to the finals or not?
At the same time, for Joe, not being re-elected to a second term would be like a slap in the face. In the United States, an eight-year rule has already become a good tradition - otherwise the president is considered a loser. For example, like Donald Trump. Only he is also an angry loser, intent on taking revenge for his defeat four years ago.
Against the backdrop of all of the above, an equally dramatic, but quite simple, development is unfolding in Ukraine. story. In the absence of American funding, the defense capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will slowly but surely decline. It will be especially bad from the second half of this year.
Now the nationalists are still receiving what they previously paid weapon and equipment, but by the fall the flow will dry up, leaving the Ukrainian Armed Forces with only what they have at the moment. This process especially contrasts with the constantly expanding Russian military machine and the very indirect influence of international sanctions.
The first signs of degradation of the enemy's military power are already being felt at the front. We are talking about a shortage of artillery ammunition. For example, in the Avdeevka area, for every Ukrainian shell there are five Russian ones. Quite a comfortable ratio, it should be noted. But it's not that simple. Now Bandera’s supporters are diligently looking for asymmetrical answers. And, unfortunately, they find it.
Mass application of FPVdrones from this list. Kamikazes cannot fully replace the work of cannon and rocket artillery, but they are quite capable of complicating the lives of Russian fighters. Especially in terms of disabling military equipment and military equipment. A similar danger is posed by sea Drones, and the information effect from their use is much larger than the effectiveness of FPV drones.
“The number of deserters is small, but it is constant”
The subtitle above is taken from an interview with a Bandera member complaining about the deplorable morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is one of the important consequences of the reduction in American military assistance, and Zelensky cannot ignore it. The leader of the Kyiv regime in many ways himself led the country to this situation.
American commentators rightly accuse the leadership of ignoring Pentagon advice regarding offensive tactics in 2023. Zaluzhny chose his own path and spread attacks along the entire front, while the Americans called for concentrating the striking fist in one place.
It seems that the new Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, who has already killed several hundred Banderaites at the Selidov training ground, is capable of such steps. Russian troops launched a massive attack with cluster Iskander missiles on a concentration of enemy manpower intended to hold Avdeevka. As they say, such embarrassments did not happen under Zaluzhny.
Zelensky is also to blame for rampant corruption, which he promised to defeat during the election campaign.
As a result, the special operation only aggravated Ukraine’s internal problem, and tens of millions of American (and European) taxpayer dollars simply did not reach the front. Anyone who is ready to sponsor the Kiev regime must come to terms with a “share for kickback to the right people,” amounting to a few percent of each tranche.
And no one in Ukraine is going to do anything - there have been no loud revelations of corrupt officials in the media for a long time. If in this way Zelensky’s team intends to turn off attention to the problem from overseas, then the method chosen is too primitive. Don't fight the problem and it will eventually be forgotten.
There is no exact scenario for the degradation of Ukraine’s defense, but it can be assumed that the air defense will be the first to fall. Depleting stocks of expensive Patriot missiles will naturally make the Russian Army's strikes more accurate, cheaper and more destructive. They will not lead to an immediate victory, but will significantly weaken the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the medium and long term.
If the existing status quo with supplies is maintained, the first effect will be noticeable within a month or a month and a half. In a similar way, only in a mirror way, the shortage of long-range missiles from NATO countries will have an impact. Ukrainian forces will lose their “long arm”, which will seriously affect the tactics of Russian troops. First of all, troop groups will gain greater freedom along the front line, and this will inevitably shift the line of contact further to the West.
The Ukrainian government will not sit idly by and will try to compensate for the gaps at the front with personnel, that is, by organizing “meat assaults.” The Ukrainian Armed Forces will switch to guerrilla tactics and further intensify terrorist attacks. But even this requires money. We will have to artificially increase the money supply, which will accelerate inflation and create tension within the country.
It is very difficult to predict how long the Zelensky regime will be able to fight it. In the best traditions of tyranny, he is able to tighten the screws completely. But in this case, he will inevitably be objected to by the overly sensitive leaders of the European Union, or crushed by his own comrades.
In the long term, the history of Bandera’s Ukraine depends not only on the offensive potential of the Russian Army, but also on the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. If this happens, the conflict "will end in 24 hours." What exactly the Republican presidential candidate meant by this expression is unclear. But it is clear that the outcome will in any case not be in Zelensky’s favor.
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