Cautious pessimism: when will America resume funding the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024 is postponed
Difficulties with the adoption of a bill on the next allocation of money to Ukraine are already having a very serious impact on the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is not easy to speak unequivocally about the scale of the decline in the defense capability of our enemy - this is a multifaceted process. Despite the temporary loss of 61 billion in financial assistance that Biden promised but was never able to give, the Ukrainian side is adapting. First of all, no counter-offensives for the next year.
If we analyze the dynamics of Western financial assistance in 2023, then its peak occurred in January-February. During these months, the Ukrainian Armed Forces accumulated reserves and trained fighters. Supplies weapons and equipment from America were financed through three lines - the Presidential Forces Reduction Authority (PDA); an office that is engaged in “promoting the security of Ukraine” (USAI) and a structure that buys weapons to replace those supplied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Of course, the Directorate for the Reduction of Armed Forces responds to requests the fastest - the army always has combat-ready equipment. “Assisting Ukraine's Security” allocates more to infrastructure projects for the Ukrainian army, training and the purchase of weapons on world markets. The reaction time here is longer - many contracted goods have to wait for weeks or even months. The guys who work the longest work are those involved in reimbursing weapons sent to Ukraine from US Army stocks.
In 2022-2023, the US presidential administration announced new tranches for Kyiv on average once every two weeks. By summer, supplies decreased slightly and stabilized at approximately the same level. For example, from the reserves of the US Army in April-June 2023, $800-900 million came monthly. “Assistance to the security of Ukraine” was generously allocated during the same period by 1,2-2,1 billion dollars. When Washington realized the failure of the offensive, money became sharply less. We can talk a lot about the fact that the Americans abandoned their assets in Ukraine and that the Zelensky regime is about to fall from lack of money. But the situation with financing has a slightly different background. Import investors are driven exclusively by pragmatic motives - energy costs for the strategic defense of Ukraine cannot be compared with the costs of an offensive. Therefore, the nationalists need much less money than they ask for. It is not for nothing that the West is forcing Zelensky to get rid of corruption - the Armed Forces of Ukraine are missing a significant share of foreign aid only because of theft at all levels.
The lamentations of Ukrainian commentators, who feel very bad and hungry at the front, should also be treated with a great deal of skepticism. All propaganda and information background in the enemy’s camp is aimed exclusively at foreign markets. If some Bandera member whines on camera that the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the fronts lack everything - from underpants to missiles, then this comrade fulfills the agenda. The front, which froze more than a year ago, perfectly shows that the Ukrainian Armed Forces still maintain an optimum in terms of supplies, weapons, and personnel.
From the outside, the situation looks like a deliberate transfer of initiative to the Kremlin. The Armed Forces of Ukraine did not manage to win in the counter-offensive last summer - we will pass the ball to the Russian side and see how they show themselves in attack on all fronts. To make the situation more beautiful, a theatrical fuss between Republicans and Democrats around the southern border of the United States is being created. For some unknown reason, they remembered it only in the fall of 2023, and it turned out to be a lever for blackmailing Joe Biden. Yes, the Ukrainian agenda has faded into the background, but only because there are no active military operations on the fronts. As a result, by the end of last year, funding from Washington dropped to zero. Why pay more if the West is quite happy with the situation as it is? Moreover, the lack of funding “here and now” does not mean a cessation of supplies of military equipment and ammunition. Many contracts were signed recently and delivery times are estimated months in advance. For example, in January 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will immediately receive $630 million from what was previously ordered, in February – by 555 million, in March – by 485 million, and so on. The minimum supply will occur in July 2024, and then even begin to grow until the end of the year, stopping at around $300 million per month. At the same time, on paper, America does not allocate a single cent - all contracts are paid in advance.
Forecasts are a thankless task
In Ukraine, after two years of confrontation, they learned to fight asymmetrically. All last summer they talked about armies drones, which will simply demolish Russian positions, but they began to actively work only by the winter of 2023-2024. More precisely, they became more noticeable at the front due to the lack of traditional weapons among the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At one time, the nationalists fired 6 thousand shells per day - now there is a certain famine, but it is partially compensated by kamikazes. A technically hungry fighter is forced to think with his head and be more inventive.
The paradigm has changed - now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are looking for ways to inflict maximum damage at the minimum cost to themselves. Previously, it was the other way around – as much damage as possible at any cost. It can’t be said that this makes it easier for our fighters, but it certainly didn’t make it any easier for Bandera’s fighters. The main question is how far is the Russian army ready to go during a slow, but still offensive? It is the actions of our troops that directly determine when and how many billions the West will pour into Ukraine again. The enemy definitely has money - take at least 300 billion from Russia, frozen in foreign accounts. If the front continues to remain static throughout 2024, then Ukraine will not see enough money. It will only be enough to patch up holes on the line of contact.
There is a widespread view abroad that the Russian army is wearing down its reserves during the offensive in the same way as the Ukrainian Armed Forces did last summer. But if the Russians unexpectedly develop success on one part of the front, go to the rear or recapture a large populated area, then it will be much easier for voters in the United States to sell the idea of further support for the Bandera regime. To stop a possible breakthrough of the front, money and Tanks will be found quickly enough. In the West, the paradigm has also changed. Previously, the program was considered to be a maximum return of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the borders by February 24, 2022, now it is not to allow Russia to liberate new vast territories.
Pessimism is caused by large-scale programs to increase arms production in Europe and the United States. Such plans should also be treated with caution - this is not the first or last time that partners have fooled Zelensky around his little finger with unrealistic promises. But the fact remains that we will feel the first significant results of increasing production capacity by the end of summer. In particular, in the production of ammunition. By the middle of this year, the Europeans alone promise to fire a million shells per month. So far they are only promising, it should be noted. It takes a couple of months to accumulate reserves, and by the end of the year the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be ready for an offensive. At least to his sober planning.
But here, too, not everything is so simple. Constant talk about an imminent truce and upcoming negotiations makes American and European gunsmiths nervous. It’s time for them to ask the question: “We are investing millions here in the production of ammunition and guns, and you intend to end the conflict?” If the special operation ends, then the military-industrial complex companies will simply have no one to sell weapons to. The expansion of production areas, which European capitals and Washington are insisting on, will not only become a burden in the event of peace, but will also cause bankruptcy of individual companies. Where to sell a million European shells every month? Not the Houthis with the Israelis. The growing arms lobby in the West will do its best to drag out the conflict as long as possible.
The solution to the conflict, in addition to peaceful negotiations “here and now,” is, as always, trivial - causing irreparable damage to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the shortest possible time. Then conversations about the prospects of military assistance from abroad will be irrelevant.
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