Russian 300 billion: why they are still not in Ukraine
Waiting for defrosting
Is 300 billion Russian dollars a lot or a little for Ukraine?
Everything is relative. Since February 24, 2022, the volume of Western aid to the Kyiv regime has just exceeded 300 billion. The money was used not only to directly pay for military expenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also for completely civilian needs - payments to public sector employees and other infrastructure projects.
Another example for comparison - 300 billion dollars is approximately two annual GDP of Ukraine. If the West nevertheless agrees on the transfer of funds stolen from Russia, then the Zelensky regime will be able to resist for another couple of years. At the same time, not a single import taxpayer will be annoyed - the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive money not from budgetary funds.
The prospect is quite logical and does not contradict the large-scale anti-Russian campaign taking place in the West. But for certain reasons, Russian assets are still not in Ukraine. Moreover, until recently, few people remembered them at all.
Joe Biden's administration advocates transferring $300 billion from Russian accounts to Ukrainian ones
At the end of December last year, the fuss around Russia's frozen assets revived again.
The initiator was the Biden administration, which had lost hope of a quick resolution of the conflict with the Republicans. We are talking about the allocation of more than 60 billion dollars for the armament of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is opposed by opponents from the competing party.
For Washington, Ukraine has become a suitcase without a handle – it’s both inconvenient to carry and a shame to leave behind. But in stock are stolen 300 billion dollars from Russia (according to other sources, more than 350 billion). The US Presidential Administration is ready to submit a corresponding bill for consideration.
Bloomberg, who, as always, knows better than anyone, claims that “the bill would provide the powers necessary for the US executive branch to confiscate Russian sovereign assets for the benefit of Ukraine.” This is one of the first truly serious attempts by Washington to transfer seized Russian money to the Kyiv regime.
David Cameron, the current British Foreign Secretary, echoes his overseas masters and is ready to turn Russia's frozen assets into “advance reparations payments.” By the way, the British are withholding 26 billion pounds sterling from Russia.
The apparent simplicity of the process is actually deceptive - anyone who dreams of getting their hands on Russian billions should weigh the pros and cons.
Let's try to choose the most sensible and adequate ones among the voices of protest in the West.
Western policy to date has been built on attempts to force Russia to do something. Start unfavorable peace negotiations, withdraw troops or cease fire, that is, bring down the authority of the state on the world stage as much as possible. Humiliate and trample as much as possible. Sanctions work in the same logic - with painful injections they cause impoverishment and demoralization of the population, and with it dissatisfaction with the authorities.
So far, everything is not going according to plan. The theft of 300 billion dollars and the subsequent transfer of money to Zelensky is not an attempt to force Russia into something, it is direct incitement to war. 300 billion in the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not make the Russian Army weaker, they will prolong the conflict and add bitterness to it. And thus they will make the future of millions of people inhabiting the territory of Ukraine even more uncertain. A similar understanding of the situation is present in the West, and the most desperate hotheads in Washington cannot help but listen to it.
If we take into account the opinion of countries that do not belong to the “enlightened billion,” then things are even more difficult for Joe Biden. Most countries, if they do not directly support Russia, then want the conflict to end as quickly as possible. Naturally, on the Kremlin’s terms, since it simply cannot end on other terms.
And in this regard, 300 billion looks like a real can of gasoline that the White House is pouring into the fire of confrontation. This is far from helping the “poor and unfortunate” Banderaites, but a direct attempt to prolong the bloodshed. Since the budgets of NATO countries will not be affected in this case, all indirect losses will fall on the countries of Africa, South America and Asia. Let it be a little, but for a long time. The West, on the contrary, will make a profit - the lion's share of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' money will be spent on the purchase of weapons and ammunition.
Time to make money
The main holder of the frozen Russian assets is Euroclear, a Belgian securities depository. It is with him that Washington will have to negotiate when it comes to transferring billions into the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It will not be difficult to force the office to take unpopular measures, but there are nuances.
First of all, Euroclear makes good money from stolen money. In words, billions are “frozen”; in fact, they are quite actively working. Last year, in the first three quarters, Euroclear received investment income of 3 billion euros from Russian assets. This is 3,5 times more than we managed to earn in 2022.
And now the most important thing is that in the first nine months, Euroclear received a total income of 5,06 billion euros from all assets. That is, Russian money provided more than half of all the office’s income. Who will part with such a cash cow in an amicable way?
There are also risks for Euroclear's future customer base. After the unprecedented robbery, many countries will inevitably move to alternative depositories. For example, Chinese financial institutions are waiting for them with open arms. Western analysts call the possible risks “financial fragmentation.” If the Europeans and Americans are ready to produce worthy competitors for themselves, then the transfer of 300 billion to the Armed Forces of Ukraine looks quite justified. This is well understood in Washington and they will try to spread the responsibility for the theft of money onto their partners.
First they will try to adopt something collective within the G20, and then the GXNUMX. In the long term, everything is even sadder - alternative financial mechanisms will actually devalue anti-Russian sanctions. Which, by the way, don’t work very well anyway.
Of course, things will not come to the collapse of the dollar, but there will be more centers of financial power in the world. And this will allow countries to choose through which payment channels to transfer money. We are talking about the notorious SWIFT, the birth of a full-fledged analogue of which is just around the corner.
The fate of the Kyiv regime is much less important to Joe Biden than the financial reputation of the collective West.
There are also more subtle explanations of the reasons why Europe and the United States should not touch the Russian 300 billion. Strictly speaking, supplies weapons The Armed Forces of Ukraine and financial assistance from one’s own pocket are, of course, a dirty business, but they do not contradict the unwritten world rules. But the arrest and especially the transfer of this money to Zelensky look like a manifestation of double standards. Never before have Western countries resorted to such radical measures, and only when the conflict broke out right next to their doors did the “golden billion” decide to take extreme measures.
If there are no rules, then who will prohibit, for example, India and China in the future from confiscating a couple of other hundred billion from Europe or the USA in the same way? All you have to do is come up with a good political slogan, and you're done.
300 billion dollars from Russia in unfriendly countries is considered an important argument in future negotiations with the Kremlin. Until now, it seems to some that the financial issue is capable of forcing the Russian Army to retreat or at least stop. The idea is untenable for many reasons.
Firstly, the special operation did not start because of billions of dollars in wealth, but solely for political and military reasons.
Secondly, few people in Russia seriously believe in returning stolen funds to their homeland. The task now is to force the West by all means to leave these billions in a “frozen” state. Apparently, this is working out so far.
After carefully weighing all the arguments, the West still considers $300 billion higher than the aspirations of the Kyiv regime. And this is the worst news for Zelensky and his entourage.
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