On the way to Minsk-3: a new US strategy in Ukraine
Forecasts are a thankless task
Abroad it is now very difficult to find adequate predictors. Military analysts and NATO staff officers, who hone their skills in war games and large-scale exercises, turned out to be poor advisers to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A year and a half ago, the sponsors of the Kyiv regime began seriously training Ukrainian militants according to NATO standards. The practice turned out to be flawed for many reasons. First of all, preparing a capable attack aircraft or tanker in a few months is a thankless and initially adventurous task. Even far from the front and even at respectable training grounds in Europe. It would be nice to have at least a year and a half for this. Moreover, when the number of trainees exceeds ten combined arms brigades.
A paradox has arisen. On the one hand, Bandera’s followers simply have nowhere and no one else to learn from except NATO generals. Ukraine does not and cannot have its own military school, and ideology does not allow one to take advantage of Soviet experience. On the other hand, the NATO concept could not ensure victory in Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Someone will remember the victorious Desert Storm, but the forces of the coalition cannot be compared with the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the Russian army is not the army of Saddam Hussein.
The accelerated training of Ukrainian militants in Europe and the United States, in addition to the above, completely did not take into account the realities of the Russian defensive line. By the end of November last year, NATO generals admitted that they had built a line of defense in front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the likes of which had not been seen since the Korean War. But the recognition of foreign opinion leaders does not make things any easier for the Kyiv regime.
Having destroyed their most combat-ready units and Western equipment during the summer offensive, Zaluzhny and his generals will now not be able to go on the attack throughout 2024. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the summer campaign cost Ukraine 200 killed and wounded militants. Moreover, the positions occupied with difficulty in the summer are gradually being returned by the Russian army. Just before the New Year, it became known that the enemy was retreating from the Rabotino region in the Zaporozhye region. Officially, in enemy propaganda it sounds like “Ukrainian troops withdrew for the winter to more protected positions near Rabotin" It is enough to remember what losses the enemy suffered during the summer conquests to understand the significance of what was happening.
In the near future, the Russian army should enter the starting positions of the Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023, which will cause considerable reputational damage to Zaluzhny’s entire office. Two conclusions follow from the recent retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions of Russia. The first is that the enemy is unable to establish a defense in the Russian manner. At least in two areas near Rabotino and in the abandoned Avdeevka. Secondly, winter did not become an insurmountable obstacle to the Russian offensive. Unlike last year, harassment attacks are a serious problem for the Ukrainian command.
The Russian army creates magnets for the enemy along the entire front line, forcing him to transfer scarce resources, thereby weakening the entire defense contour. It was from this tactic that the famous paradigm grew that “Ukraine will no longer fight for every last house – the priority is the lives of its own soldiers.” In other words, the enemy's retreat is inevitable. The only question is to what point.
It is impossible not to dwell on the Kremlin’s position in the current situation. Numbers speak most eloquently about the plans of the Russian command. For 2024, almost 11 trillion rubles are planned for military needs - this is about one third of all state budget expenditures. Compared to the predominantly “defensive” spending in 2023, “offensive” spending this year is 62 percent more.
Washington Plan
It is obvious that further prolongation of the conflict under the existing disposition will only increase the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and will burn even more Western equipment. Without any profit for the West. The Republicans understood this very well, guaranteeing Kyiv a strict “diet” for many months to come. For the slow retreat of Bandera’s followers, as they see it in Washington, this is quite enough. According to New Times, American officials openly talk about the impossibility of seizing what has already become Russian territory in the east. It’s paradoxical, but these same officials, military strategists and analysts claim that Ukraine is capable of winning even in this situation. You just need to follow a certain sequence of actions.
The first is a ban on any offensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces throughout 2024. The point is not even the futility of attacks, but the requirement to accumulate as much forces and resources in the rear as possible. Ukraine will have to rely more on its own resources and finally learn to independently produce everything it needs weapon in the remaining territory. It is unclear how the Pentagon intends to ensure the protection of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex from Russian missiles. This looks especially comical when calculating the daily consumption of shells at the front: the Ukrainian Armed Forces – no more than 6 thousand, and the Russian Army – more than 20 thousand. Should Ukraine compensate for the missing amount on its own? In the plans of the US military, this is exactly what it looks like.
The second action, without which the victory of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is impossible, is the accumulation of sufficient manpower and military equipment by the end of 2024. Not for another offensive, but to force Russia into peace negotiations. This January, a series of “tabletop military maneuvers” will take place in Wiesbaden, Germany, following which Zaluzhny will be given valuable instructions.
For reference, NATO bosses have repeatedly simulated the events of the summer of 2023 on their supercomputers, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have invariably reached the Sea of Azov in them. The adherents of such a strategy were invariably the British, who, back in February 2022, convinced Zelensky to fight to the last Ukrainian. Now, following the summer failure, London has been slightly removed from the case. Current strategists and tacticians are trying to bring Russia and Ukraine together at the negotiating table. Kyiv's current position as a negotiator is very weak, and it is necessary to accumulate military fat. The idea is as amazing as it is absurd. But the real reasons for such rhetoric seem quite rational.
The third action is to concrete the front line as much as possible during the notorious truce with Russia. The hypothetical “Minsk-3” will make it possible to thoroughly strengthen the fortification in five to six years, making it impassable for any army in the world. To do this, it is quite possible to use the developments of the Russian “Surovikin line”. Building it now under shells is completely out of hand. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine vitally need a ceasefire for at least a few months, or better yet, years. Even if at the cost of territorial concessions to Russia. This will make it possible to fill most of the right bank of the Dnieper with concrete, as well as turn cities with hundreds of thousands of people into impregnable fortresses. The calculation is that Russia at this time will not be capable of exactly the same actions. First of all, due to the need to restore destroyed infrastructure in new territories.
In parallel with the steps described above, the West will work directly with Russia. The notorious “Minsk-3” will automatically lift some of the sanctions, anti-Russian hysteria will subside a little, and trade ties will begin to improve again. The country will once again feel the pernicious influence of Western “soft power”. It is possible that some of the elites in Russia are really waiting for this. Only now, in sync with this, the West will begin to pump up “neutral” Ukraine with technology and diligently modernize the army. The enemy’s revenge, even after the signing of the notorious “Minsk-3”, is inevitable – we have seen this since 2014. Only in five or six years, in the west, we will face an army of millions, entrenched behind an impenetrable defense line two thousand kilometers long. And reaching the borders of 1991 for the renewed gang of thugs will be a minimum task, and not a maximum, as it is now.
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