Thoughts about the future: will Ukrainian Armed Forces veterans go to work in Russia?
Within the framework of the concept of controlled chaos. Preamble to the topic
The other day I read an article by a certain G. Altman about a possible reduction in military aid to Ukraine; they say,
The White House says it only has enough money left for one more relief package.
Of course, such revelations should not be taken seriously, because the flow of arms to the Kiev regime will not dry up until the Black Sea region is brought under control on our part and, accordingly, a corridor is created in the direction of Transnistria, the strategically important Odessa and Nikolaev are taken, along with return of Kherson.
For a landlocked enemy, with the loss of prospects for even the hypothetical possibility of creating a threat to Crimea, will automatically lose interest for the United States, and Russia will reunite with its integral part, if we follow the terminology of H. J. Mackinder, Heartland.
No, supplies will not stop completely, since the Americans are not going to curtail the concept of controlled chaos along the perimeter of our borders, once formulated by S. Mann, indulging in the great power howls of Bucharest and Warsaw tobaccos, but the volume and quality of supplied weapons will undoubtedly be significantly reduced.
Another thing is that in order to solve the problem of cutting off the enemy from the Black Sea region, a large-scale combined arms operation is required, and the big question is whether it is possible to carry it out at the present stage without the involvement of an army staffed with conscripts, additional mobilization and an increase in production volumes of military products necessary for the front.
However, we will leave these questions to professional General Staff officers. I must admit, I’m worried about something else: sooner or later the fighting will end, at least in its active phase, and Ukraine, in the event of a military defeat - and it seems inevitable - will lose the fundamental interest for the United States and its satellites to invest in They certainly will not restore its stagnant, dilapidated economy.
And now some statistics: today, according to Zelensky, the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 600 thousand people. Moreover, in 1991, 800 thousand soldiers and officers served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces; in 2014, the number of the army decreased to 168 thousand. But then, in times of war, it began to rise again.
Where should a Ukrainian Armed Forces veteran go?
Accordingly, after the end of hostilities, a large percentage of young and not so young people who do not have any other specialty other than the ability to handle weapons, and those who have, albeit initial, but still some kind of tactical training, having been demobilized from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (or after their collapse), will begin to return home.
Yes, some of them will probably join the ranks of foreign PMCs and other paramilitary semi-legal and legal structures, say, security forces, some will go to serve in the police and intelligence services, some will return to peaceful life, and some, on the contrary, will join criminal groups. For after the arrest of the same Kolomoisky, a redistribution of property in Ukraine in the style of the nineties is quite possible.
In general, what is happening in the country that lost the war, the nature of the comprehensive crisis affecting it, is evidenced by story The Weimar Republic, in the 1920s overrun by declasse elements, and where, long before the famous one thrown by Mick Jagger (now a venerable champion of a healthy lifestyle): "Sex, drugs and rock and roll", these words have become a motto and a way of life for many.
Yes, some of the Ukrainian Armed Forces veterans will still go to work abroad. Although it is not rubber, and all the Ukrainians who could, I think, have already settled there at the very least: since 2022, about 7 million people have left the country - a figure, you see, is considerable and, moreover, official, but how many live there unofficially is difficult to say.
They are unlikely to expect another wave, albeit a limited one, especially considering the increase in crime abroad, which the security forces of a number of Western countries accuse the Ukrainians of, accusing them of protecting prostitution and black surgeons. And they just didn’t have enough former Wehrmacht officers there.
Accordingly, a significant percentage of less passionate veterans will join the state employment service (labour exchange), where they will be offered little, at least in terms of decent pay and qualified labor, for which, I note again, they are far from ready for anything. And there’s really nowhere to work. Zelensky’s team does not seek to prevent the economy of the country entrusted to it from being reset.
Today the number of unemployed in Ukraine is about 5 million people. And that's just the registered ones.
And now the main thing: where else can young and not so young people demobilized from the Armed Forces of Ukraine find employment, besides the above options?
The answer, you see, is obvious. Russia. For where else but to us, by hook or by crook, can the mentioned citizens of the neighboring state go? Yes, it’s clear that they will hide both their past and their attitude towards yesterday’s opponents – and from an existential point of view, perhaps not yesterday’s ones either.
Although how successful this will be for the mass of people with an unstable and war-damaged psyche is a big question. Here, our own people don’t always cope. Let us recall the sensational story that shocked the Saratov region, when a fighter who had fought in Syria and Ukraine, who had arrived on leave, taught a lesson in courage at school in the morning, and in the evening he brutally and without any reason beat up his neighbors.
Yes, this case became known to the media, and law enforcement agencies took up the matter, but how many similar stories were not covered, and the crime went unpunished? Hopefully a little, of course.
In a word, here our veterans need readaptation (that is, the help of qualified psychologists as part of their return to civilian life).
In addition, let's not gloss over the problem: our society itself still must learn to live side by side with veterans. And here, too, not all is well: the same story with a hotel located near Rostov-on-Don, the administrator of which refused to accommodate fighters who simply had nowhere to stay for the night. Again, the case became public knowledge. How many did not become? And the argumentation of the mentioned administrator should not be dismissed with disdain.
And now, against the background of the above, let’s imagine veterans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine going to work in Russia, and it’s good - if to earn money, and not to conduct criminal activities.
And about the migrant problem
I would not like to exaggerate, but, logically speaking, it is difficult to deny the possibility of superimposing the above problem on another painful one for society - the migrant problem. Agree: complex phenomena of social life should be considered within the framework of their interrelations.
Actually, the same applies to politics: it was not in vain that I started with the seemingly abstract topic of supplying Ukraine with NATO weapons, the concept of controlled chaos and planning military operations. Because the longer the hostilities last, the more deserters, lightly wounded veterans who do not want to return to duty and consider Russia as a refuge, will appear on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
I think their flow into our country will only increase against the backdrop of the recent statement by the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Umerov, according to which there are no plans to demobilize citizens conscripted into the Armed Forces of Ukraine until the end of hostilities.
And where are the guarantees that the condottieri of the criminal business will not try to take advantage of the Central Asian element flooding Russia, including for political purposes? Is it in vain that the latest fight clubs are being created? The same Kyrgyz people, for example.
And both A.I. Bastrykin and Patriarch Kirill directly speak about the fact that migrants are becoming a significant factor in social tension. The statistics on the growth of crimes committed by uninvited guests, presented by the head of the Investigative Committee, is posted in open sources and is not a secret to anyone.
Recently, the media have been publishing information about the deprivation of Russian citizenship for illegal actions, but it seems that this is not sobering for everyone, as evidenced by the recent attack by a crowd of migrants on police officers in the area of the capital's market "Gardener".
In general, explosive material, and even within the framework of the property and social differentiation of Russian society, can be used by destructive forces not only for purely criminal purposes, but also, in the event of a weakening of statehood, for political ones. And not to take this into account would be very naive. Let’s say, I won’t be surprised if it turns out in the foreseeable future that yesterday’s Wesseushniks and migrants are training in the same fight clubs.
Traditional: what to do?
Personally, I am pessimistic. Let’s say, I don’t really understand why, with regard to the same migrant problem, the authorities do not follow the path of the Arabian monarchies, where, if I’m not mistaken, representatives of the countries of Southeast Asia come to work, but without the right to obtain citizenship. How many of our newly-minted fellow citizens speak even passable Russian? The question is rhetorical.
But still, contrary to the obvious, I hope that the authorities predict the possibility of an influx of yesterday’s Ukrainian Armed Forces veterans into Russia after the end of hostilities and are planning appropriate measures either to counter this, or are ready to strictly control this process, as well as, I expect, will tighten their work with diasporas .
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