Logical story. "The effect of total bad luck": From Midway to sudden Russian frosts
When people become interested in history, especially the military, but they do not take it seriously - they have an alternative syndrome.
What it is? This is when a person, having read something new for himself, independently or with the “help” of the author, finds a key point, having changed which, he can change the story. And after that, the finder will be filled with the feeling of a known sacred truth about luck and bad luck and an understanding of how the destinies of the world could be changed.
Superficially knowledgeable people find this effect in so many events and battles. And begin the stories of the "enlightened" about the possibility of "Varyag" to break through in full swing, if you throw the canolet "Korean". About the bad luck of the Germans under Prokhorovka, which allegedly led to the loss of the Kursk Arc, already “won” by the Germans. On the fatal mistake of Stalin, who did not believe Sorge / who believed Hitler. And even about the "bad luck" of the Germans in the form of "terrible frost."
Especially in order not to unwind the fan - I will try to show everything on the most neutral for us, a clearly expressed and, one can say, refined example.
So - the battle of Midway.
Midway - the first major defeat of the Japanese fleet in the Pacific War. It is he who is perceived as the collapse of Japanese plans for victory in the war.
We read the most common reasoning:
“Theoretically, they could not win. But they won and, having won, changed the whole course of the war in the Pacific Ocean ... Midway with all its brightness showed how in the fight against the considerably superior enemy forces in the human soul a certain magic mixture is accumulated, consisting of valor, skill and faith in the correctness of their cause, which leads from seemingly sure defeat to an incredible victory. " (Walter Lord)
"Considering that even the limited Japanese attack response of the aircraft carrier Yorktown brought the Japanese success, it can be assumed that the outcome of the battle could have been completely different if it were not for a set of coincidences and a happy coincidence for the Americans." (Wikipedia article)
Which translate into:
“- PURELY RANDOMLY McCluskey found the Japanese compound at the very moment when the Japanese fighters, working at low altitude, finely chopped the torpedoes Messi. And missed the dive bombers to the goal.
- PURE RANDOM BOMB hit the Akagi, Kaga and Soryu precisely at the moment when their decks were filled with fully loaded and armed aircraft. Only two bombs hit the Akagi, plus a third one exploded nearby. It is clear that under normal conditions they will not sink an aircraft carrier. And here - quite enough.
But even with such a hell of luck, the fourth aircraft carrier, Hiryu, remained unharmed - the distribution of targets was spontaneous, it was simply no one who attacked. Only one of the four remained - but even that was enough for the Americans to lose Yorktown. Then, with terrible efforts, they drowned "Hiryu" ...
Here, actually. If I state everything correctly, then the Japanese had ALL the chances of winning. They, in fact, have already won. "
And even there is such a fierce nonsense:
“Summing up, we note that the main mistake of both Yamamoto and Nagumo was unwillingness to listen to the language of coincidence and premonition, the sixth, neurogenetic contour of the psyche, the initiation of which in the framework of the“ Miracle Strategy ”is inevitable. The Americans could afford such inattention - their intelligence had already reached the level of technology. The Japanese side professed reliance on Chaos, as an alternative to the general Western order. But within the framework of this strategy, the signs of Fate were to be read and taken into account. ” (Sergey Pereslegin)
Now consider the question of luck in this battle, let's say, humanly.
The Japanese expect to conduct a landing operation. They are not aware of the presence in the area of the target of the American aircraft carriers.
Americans know where the Japanese will strike, and suggest what forces. Suddenness on the side of the Americans.
The battle of Midway is a battle of the sea aviation, without fire contact of the ships. So we will compare forces in airplanes so that the rest of the numbers do not cloud the brain.
Japanese - 4 aircraft carrier with 261 carrier-mounted aircraft + several reconnaissance aircraft on cruisers.
Americans - 3 aircraft carrier with 230 carrier-mounted aircraft + 125 aircraft on Midway Atoll.
That is - Americans have an advantage in airplanes, as well as in the surprise and secrecy of deployment.
And here begins the battle. The Americans are the first to detect the enemy. 3 June is followed by 2 attacks by American aircraft, but not on aircraft carriers, but on the detected landing party. How terribly lucky Americans!
4 June, the Japanese strike at Midway, but ineffective, because the Americans raised the air in advance in the air. In response, the Americans, having discovered the aircraft carriers of the Japanese, are beginning to strike at them.
First strike - 10 torpedo bombs, 7 lost, no result.
The second is the attack of dive bombers, 16 aircraft. Bombed by aircraft carriers. There are no hits, almost all the divers are shot down.
The third is the unsuccessful attack of the “Flying Fortresses”.
The fourth is the attack of the base dive bombers. No results.
Fifth - successive attacks 41 torpedo. Zero attack result, 35 planes shot down.
The sixth is a dive bombing attack, during which 3 from 4 of Japanese aircraft carriers were hit.
That's all the luck of Americans. The secret of amazing luck is incredibly simple: constant attacks from different heights, until one of them was crowned with success. The superiority of the Americans in the air force and the Japanese ignorance of the fact that the American aircraft carriers were located nearby worked.
And what is especially unique in the battle of Midway? To be honest, nothing.
The Japanese won victory after victory in the first months of the war. But the superiority of the United States and its allies over Japan in human resources has been multiple, and in the military-industrial potential, even by several times - an order of magnitude.
“Lucky” or “unlucky” in this war to both parties. Tactics, team skills, resilience of individual units and so on changed the results of many seemingly predictable battles. But the Americans successfully experienced all the "luck" of the Japanese, becoming stronger for each subsequent battle. But the Japanese had enough of the "luck" of the Americans to immediately lose all perspectives in a further war.
So "lucky" only to those who "lucky himself." If a country has more powerful than the enemy’s military potential, is ready for war and its population is ready to fight - sooner or later “amazing luck” will be on its side.
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