After the failure in Ukraine, NATO is ready to create a zone of tension in the north. A new direction of pressure on Russia
Somehow we reacted very calmly to the NATO naval exercises “Freezing Winds 23” that took place in the Baltic. Well, we passed and passed. Yes, large ones, 23 ships and 30 aircraft plus 20 marines. Yes, for the first time, NATO did not even hide its goals - the capture of the Russian islands of Gogland, Bolshoi Tyuters and Moshchny and the landing of marines on the coast. It is clear that not the coast of the alliance countries. That leaves St. Petersburg. A bone in the throat for Europe.
But even after the exercises, which took place from November 20 to December 1, NATO did not calm down. On December 4, patrolling of the Gulf of Finland and some other waters of the Baltic Sea began by ships of the British, Dutch, Swedish and Estonian navies. The pretext is quite understandable, if, of course, you forget about Nord Streams. An explosion on the Finland-Estonia gas pipeline and damage to communication cables between Estonia and Finland, as well as Estonia and Sweden.
Are you afraid of the actions of saboteurs?
Reasonable. If Russia uses these forces in the Baltic, no one will think it’s enough. But there is not a single signal that we are ready for such actions. It is very interesting that no one is even trying to find those responsible for blowing up not only the Nord Streams, but also the second gas pipeline. It seems that no one needs this.
We remember very well the numerous statements by NATO officials that the Baltic is an internal sea of the alliance. Statements that NATO must limit Russian activities fleet in the Baltic. And not only military, but also civilian courts. How many statements have been made about the need to inspect Russian tankers that allegedly violate restrictions imposed by the EU.
Well, NATO’s “successes” in Ukraine.
The dire situation of the Ukrainian army, the inability of the United States and the EU to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine not only with weapons, but also with ammunition, changes in the foreign policy of many countries, all this forces the bloc to look for additional “warm-up points” on the Russian borders. Northern Europe, still unafraid and understanding little, is ideal for this.
It is necessary to force Russia to keep part of its armed forces in the north and even carry out another mobilization. The fixed idea that mobilization will blow up the country from the inside is still a priority in the minds of Western politicians. Theoretically, this looks like a completely doable task.
Kaliningrad will indeed be difficult to defend from the sea if it suddenly turns out that the West has ways to counter our anti-ship missiles, including the Zircon. In this case, we will simply need to break through a land corridor. The same Suwalki corridor between Poland and Belarus. And this will mean a blockade of the Baltic extinctions.
An attempt to hit the economy
Let's discard for now the military component of NATO's actions in the Baltic.
Everyone understands perfectly well that despite all the aggressiveness of the West, they are afraid to fight because they understand what this can lead to. Sergei Lavrov, in his interview the other day, spoke very clearly about what happens to Russia after a united Europe comes to our home with war. And he remembered Napoleon and Hitler.
But the most important thing is that he directly said that both the first and second characters simply led the Europeans’ campaign to the East. Precisely Europeans, not French or Germans. In this way, it seems to me, the Russian Foreign Minister reminded everyone who fought for whom in World War II, who was an opponent of fascism, and who was a mongrel running from one side to the other as soon as it started to smell like something fried.
So, all the sanctions that were imposed against Russia hit both sides. Moreover, it is still unknown who suffered more. The European economy today resembles ruins. Destruction is occurring in areas that are critical to many countries. Just look at Germany. Things are no better in other “locomotives” of Europe.
At the same time, Russia is experiencing at least a slight economic growth. The import substitution that we have repeatedly criticized, albeit with difficulty, is working. We have discovered new markets. We found partners and investors. That is, a strange picture emerges from the Western point of view.
The Russian economy is growing. Russia's leaders, blocked by sanctions, are traveling around the world. The army does not lack weapons and ammunition; moreover, it uses increasingly advanced weapons systems. The West cannot admit the failure of the policy of isolating Russia. Simply because the political elites there will lose power in the next elections.
I think this is the basis of everything that Europeans are doing now. What is the restriction in the Baltic for civil vessels? This is a direct violation of the Montreux Convention. And it doesn’t matter that at the same time NATO countries violate all the principles of international trade on which the modern world is built. Denmark, for example, speaks directly about the blockade of our ships in the Baltic.
But this is war.
And if we add to this some statements by the leaders of NATO countries, like Petr Pavel, the President of the Czech Republic, then everything falls into place. Europe must prepare for a “high intensity conflict”!
How is this to be understood if this is not a direct call to prepare for war? With whom?
Naturally, with us. If we couldn’t win politically, we’ll win the war.
Danger or good bluff?
Now let's look at the military component of this situation.
And let's start from where I started this material. From Exercise Freezing Winds 23.
And the first thing I want to say is that the very fact of conducting such exercises near the borders of Russia is a factor in the increased risk of war. This, like the blockade of our ports and merchant fleet, is a “casus belli.” If, of course, international laws still apply.
So, in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea, under the command of Captain Juhapekka Rautava of the Finnish Navy, not only the naval, ground and air forces of the Finnish and Swedish Armed Forces were concentrated, but also the ships of the first standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 1 - SNMCMG1), and the first standing NATO Maritime Group One (SNMG1).
I have already written above about the goals, objectives and “wants” of NATO members under the leadership of the “hot Finnish guy”. We might have been “scared” last year. Our Foreign Ministry would burst out with further notes and concerns. But today this did not happen. The big bluff didn't work out.
I read in the Western press an interesting story from a Western military expert. He predicted the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons to fight the alliance fleet in the event of a blockade. It is clear that nuclear weapons are weapons of the “last day”. That is, NATO supposedly has the opportunity to arrange this very “last day” for the Russian Federation. By the way, I read something similar in Russian-language sources.
I wonder if the authors of such analyzes ever wondered how the Black and Baltic seas differ and what their similarities are? From the point of view of the Coast Guard - practically nothing. For modern weapons, both seas are just an ordinary small body of water (I don’t want to offend sailors with the word puddle), which is fired across the entire area by anti-ship missiles. It is clear that we will not destroy the entire fleet in this way, but we will definitely “clean” the surface.
Why did I focus on time?
I drew this conclusion from yesterday’s statement by Minister Sergei Lavrov. It became clear that the time for concerns and expression of other emotions had passed. True, the minister’s statement concerned a slightly different region, but it also affected NATO countries.
What I mean is that immediately after the first takeoff of a fighter towards Ukraine, the country is automatically considered a party to the conflict, and Russia has the right to strike appropriately at it. Poland, Slovakia and Romania were named as future targets. I’ll add - why not Denmark, with its great desire to block Russian ships and ships in its territorial waters?
The SVO has been going on for almost two years. But look at the Black Sea. No matter how we feel about the Turkish president and his foreign policy, Erdogan understands perfectly well that the Black Sea is also just a body of water where enemy ships have nowhere to hide. That is why this very Montreux Convention is observed there. That’s why NATO warships don’t go into the sea.
The Baltic is still full of “unafraid idiots” with great ambitions.
Information