Venezuela vs Guyana. Should we expect an escalation of the conflict?
Most recently, on December 7, 2023, the Pentagon announced joint aviation exercises between the US and Guyana Armed Forces. It is clear that such a statement is directly related to the worsening territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela.
“In collaboration with the Guyana Defense Force, US Southern Command will conduct flight operations within Guyana's borders on December 7.”
The Americans did not come up with anything new. The press release talks about cooperation in the defense sector, regional cooperation, preparations for eliminating natural disasters, and the fight against crime. In short, the usual rhetoric for ordinary people.
The President of Venezuela has indeed spoken out in favor of returning territories that once belonged to his country. On the one hand, the fairness of the demands is obvious. But, on the other hand, the agreement that Nicolas Maduro is talking about was signed at the end of the nineteenth century, more than 120 years ago. And it was signed by representatives of Great Britain and the Bolivarian Republic. Let me remind you that the full name of the Republic of Venezuela is exactly that – the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.
Thus, Nicolas Maduro represents precisely the state that signed the agreement in Paris. By the way, the word “Bolivarian” itself has no meaning from the point of view of government. This is just a tribute to Simon Bolivar.
It is clear that with these supposed exercises the United States will try to intimidate the Venezuelan government and force it to back down. Which looks quite strange after the Venezuelan president even managed to hold a popular referendum and enlist the support of the majority of his people.
Is there a chance to resolve the dispute peacefully?
Is Latin America on the verge of another conflict? Is the US determined? How will Venezuela's neighbors react to the conflict?
Many questions arise. Of course, everyone would like the dispute to be resolved peacefully. However, everyone understands that what is at stake is not so much the territory of Guyana, but the minerals that American companies are successfully stealing from these territories.
The offshore oil that everyone is talking about today is only a small part of what is flowing into the United States from Guyana. It’s strange to me that the American press has not yet published angry materials from residents of the disputed territories who demand that Maduro’s appetites be curtailed.
Probably, someone has already thought about the traditional economic sanctions for Americans. Alas. Caracas cannot be intimidated by sanctions. The country is already accustomed to living under sanctions. The latter were canceled six months ago. So Washington was left with one option. Frighten with US military power.
I propose to consider the possibilities of Venezuela and Guyana from this point of view.
I'll start with the state against which the claims were made.
So, Guyana. According to statistics, the population of this country is 800 thousand people. But in reality no more than 283 thousand live there.
The armed forces, or more precisely the Guyana Defense Forces, are approximately 3,5 thousand people. Consists of ground forces. This is one (!) infantry battalion, a presidential guard battalion and support units. It is armed with 9 armored vehicles, 6 guns and mortars. According to some reports, Guyana has 48 mortars.
Next is the Air Force. The number of personnel is approximately 200 people. The Air Force is based on six light transport aircraft and 3 combat helicopters.
Well, the Navy, or rather the Coast Guard. The number is approximately equal to the Air Force, about 200 people. There are 5 patrol boats in service.
Now about the Venezuelan Armed Forces.
It must be said that in recent years the army of this state has purchased quite a lot of weapons from Russia. So today, in addition to the American one, Venezuela can also boast of Russian models.
So, the total strength of the Armed Forces is 143 thousand people. Six divisions and two brigades. The Navy is armed with 2 diesel-electric submarines and 6 missile ships (Lupo-class frigates). In addition, there are training, landing and patrol ships, as well as supply vessels. Which is quite a significant fleet for this region.
Air Force. These are 30 attack helicopters. Next, 16 American F-16 fighters. And the icing on the cake: 23 Russian SU-30MK fighters.
Well, and the weapons of the ground forces. 300 tanks, including the T-72. 650 artillery systems, including MLRS. Including "Grads" and "Smerchi". Several hundred armored vehicles, including 125 infantry fighting vehicles and 215 armored personnel carriers.
I think it is now clear why I called the announced teachings pseudo-teachings. US Army Aviation and Guyanese Air Force light transport aircraft. A haberdasher and a cardinal... And Venezuela will not allow you to fly freely over its territory. The exercises really threaten to turn into war. Modern fighters are not very convenient for flying over the territories of small states without visiting their neighbors.
What do we have at the moment?
The terrible President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro sent troops to the border with Guyana! In number... 300 people. Agree, even against such an army as our neighbors have, this is clearly not enough. And the other side is not particularly concerned about the actions of Venezuela. The United States is planning demonstrations of its fighters in the skies of “friendly Guyana.
The only person who is concerned about the war threatening the region is the President of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Only he brought the troops to increased combat readiness. But this is more likely a desire to prevent war than to help any side.
What's the matter? Why is the Pentagon hesitating?
After all, if you think like a mathematician, victory over the Venezuelan army is just a matter of time. In theory. If you do not take into account the terrain of the theater of operations. So far, it is known from the headquarters of the American army and “unnamed sources” that the 82nd Airborne Regiment is allegedly preparing to work in Venezuela.
The question, as I understand it, is quite serious. And it’s not at all about the armies or the number of civilians killed. The fact is that both Venezuela and Guyana have been successfully exploited by US companies for a long time. Any military action is a loss for the Americans. “Firmachi” understand perfectly well that if something starts, the process will be greatly delayed. And you will have to forget about profits.
What's next?
I ask this question hundreds of times in different situations. Specifically, in a conflict that could flare up, I don’t see anyone wanting to fight. It is rather a reminder of the agreement that was once concluded, but conveniently forgotten by the West. President Maduro is betting on discord among US politicians in connection with the ongoing election campaign.
Even for the quiet time between elections, three hot conflicts at once is too much for the United States. Especially in the underbelly of the United States. Hence the most likely scenario for further actions. If any military clashes begin, they will not be large-scale offensives, but rather small skirmishes. Don't expect anything really big.
It is even more incredible to assume that states neighboring Venezuela will become involved in the conflict. Traditionally, Caracas is supported by Cuba. But what do we see in this case? The Cuban leadership vaguely stated that in this matter Cuba is “rather on the side of Guyana.” I think this is a purely theoretical, unproven conclusion that the Cuban government does not want to quarrel with the United States. There are already rumors among specialists about some kind of fuss in this region.
Brazil. Today, Brazil has absolutely no need for an armed conflict on its borders. The President of Brazil needs peace. Do not forget that this particular state is the leader of Latin America. Including in military terms. And there are plenty of similar problems of their own. For example, with Uruguay, with the expansion of the maritime zone along the Brazilian coast. Hence the peacekeeping actions of Brazil.
Colombia. This is already a traditional enemy of Venezuela. I will not dwell on the reasons for this confrontation. Suffice it to recall the fact that in February 2019 it came to the severance of diplomatic relations between Caracas and Bogota. Diplomatic relations were finally restored only at the beginning of this year.
I wrote about the USA above.
But one more, unexpected for many, “interested person” is worth mentioning. This is one of the main buyers of Venezuelan oil - India. The fact is that the majority (up to 50%) of Guyana’s population are ethnic Indians. So, I don’t think Delhi is happy that Indians will die.
And it will have to end with Ukraine again.
There are too many screams coming from Kyiv. I understand why this happens. For Kyiv, someone’s lives are not at all important, and even the minerals of some Latin American countries. There it is more important to get American money. And quickly. But even a small and short war, if Americans participate in it, is guaranteed to kill hope for these funds.
It is clear that sooner or later Ukraine will receive its pieces of silver. One bad thing, Kyiv may not have this very “late” moment. But these are already problems for the Zelensky regime and its hangers-on.
So, even if indirectly, through third or fourth hands, the events in Latin America are to our advantage. Although I really wouldn’t want to bring things to war. I think Sergey Lavrov and his team will be able to cope with this.
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