January promises to be hot: prospects for a forceful solution to the Taiwan issue
Xi'an H-6 - the main irritant of Taiwan's air defense
Kuomintang against
Mid-January 2024 could not be more suitable for the start of the Chinese special operation to return Taiwan to its native harbor.
Why at this particular time?
On January 13, elections for the President and Parliament of the Republic of China (Taiwan's second name) are scheduled. Two parties are fighting for power in the archipelago - the conservative Kuomintang and the pro-American Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The latter is now listed as the ruling party - Tsai Ing-wen, the chairman of the DPP, has already been president of Taiwan for two terms.
This is largely why relations between Beijing and Taipei are so tense - the ruling forces are doing their best to distance themselves from China, preferring the American umbrella. The Kuomintang cannot be called a completely pro-Chinese party, but at least they do not challenge the “one China” principle.
It was Tsai Ing-wen who welcomed Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan with open arms last August. Under Kuomintang rule this would have been unthinkable. Ingwen's repeated and provocative statements regarding China have noticeably cooled relations between Beijing and Taipei.
Ordinary residents of Taiwan understand this very well - last August the ruling party lost the local government elections. It turned out to be especially painful for the DPP in special municipalities, where ¾ of the island’s population lives. According to the voting results, people from the Kuomintang received four seats, and the “democrats” only two.
In the upcoming elections, there is every chance for the Kuomintang to win, which cannot but worry the United States. If a president from an opposition party comes to power, events may not go according to the American scenario.
On the one hand, the president of Taiwan, who sympathizes with China, will sharply reduce the degree of tension with Beijing. And this is good for the US presidential administration - there will be one less hot spot on the planet. It could be sold to voters in the fall of 2024. But this is the only bonus for Americans.
The new broom in Taipei will sooner or later begin to negotiate the most profitable scenarios for unification with the PRC. That is, to resolve the inevitable issue politically. It is unknown whether it will work out or not, but the Americans will definitely reduce their support for Taiwan in this situation. Which will naturally make it easier for China to bring the rebellious island back under its umbrella.
By the way, there are already delays in the supply of military equipment - at the moment the Americans have not sent weapons by 20 billion dollars. The delay in deliveries is explained by the Ukrainian case, and now the Israeli war has also been added.
Kuomintang Party Flag "Blue Sky and White Sun"
Based on all of the above, the pressing question becomes not when China will begin its special operation, but how ready the United States will be to interfere in the internal affairs of Beijing and Taipei. Simply put, any hint of a color revolution in January-February 2024 will greatly increase the chances of a forceful reunification.
The first signs of the work of American political strategists are already present. Under the leadership of overseas comrades, the DPP carried out a rotation of personnel, corrected mistakes, and the rating naturally increased. In addition, the Kuomintang presidential contender, Hou Yu, was unable to find a common language with another oppositionist, Ko Wen-je, and now he is also running for election.
This split the ranks of opponents of the current pro-American government and at the same time increased the chances of the election of US candidate William Lai.
Task with an asterisk
The words “I want to emphasize that Taiwan independence means war” belong to Chen Binhu, a representative of the Office of Taiwan Affairs under the State Council of the People's Republic of China. Not the most significant figure in China, but this is just a test of public opinion. In the future, the right people of higher rank will say the same thing.
China has entered the Taiwan election race and does not expect to lose. So the deputy chairman of the Central Military Council, Zhang Yuxia, claims that “the army will not show any mercy to those who try to break Taiwan from the PRC.”
The phrases are loud, but backed up by very real deeds. First of all, China’s activity in the so-called Taiwan air defense identification zone. This zone is quite large and extends far into mainland China. When people talk about PLA warplanes appearing on Taiwan's radar, it is worth remembering that they may simply be flying along their coast. But in Taiwan this makes it scary.
The median line of the air defense identification zone, which runs through the Taiwan Strait, looks much more interesting. Before 2020, the Chinese rarely crossed it, simply because they did not want unnecessary confrontation. But already in 2021, the Chinese Air Force entered the east of the median strip almost a thousand times, and in 2022 there were already 1 crossings.
Taipei's biggest scare came on December 26, when 71 Chinese Air Force aircraft were spotted in the air defense identification zone, of which 43 crossed the median line. There is nothing fatal in such actions, but Taiwan has to respond - at least nine percent of the defense budget is spent annually on responding to such actions by China.
Illustration of Taiwan's air defense identification zone and its median line.
The constant increase in the PLA's combat activity around Taiwan may well be a stage of preparation for a major war. When warships and strategic missile carriers constantly fly near the borders, it is not difficult for the enemy to launch an offensive.
Firstly, Taiwan's defense is under constant stress - they are well aware that heavy Xian H-6s, for example, can carry hypersonic missiles. Fighters have to be scrambled to intercept, and this is a natural and accelerated wear and tear on the equipment. This is not the only example - the Chinese military is definitely trying to starve the Taiwanese out, or at least force them to spend more on defense.
Secondly, the military bustle around the island allows you to calmly prepare an offensive. Just yesterday, planes were simply strolling along the median line, and tomorrow they are destroying control points and air defense systems.
At the same time, all players understand the inevitable victory of China in a possible war with Taiwan. Inclusion of the army and fleet If it happens to the USA, it will lead to a third world war, which the Americans do not want at all.
Taiwan is both a very difficult target and a fairly simple one. It will not be possible to return the island with lightning speed - a landing operation through the strait will require a lot of effort and time. And, of course, there are many victims. But it will not be difficult for Beijing to blockade Taiwan, and Taipei will have no chance in a war of attrition.
Even the limited involvement of the American fleet (without the use of nuclear weapons) will not turn the tide of the conflict, but will only prolong it. They will try to crush it with sanctions, but China is a completely self-sufficient player on the world stage, capable of feeding itself even in complete isolation. Which, by the way, can only be organized from the sea - land borders outside the influence of the NATO bloc and its sympathizers. Russia will provide hydrocarbons and, in part, food products, and Beijing will handle everything else on its own. China alone has accumulated strategic reserves for at least six months.
The coming January should be decisive, first of all, for Washington's policy. China's interests in Taiwan must be taken into account, otherwise a military scenario of reunification is inevitable. However, one cannot rely on the prudence of the Americans - story with Ukraine once again confirms this thesis.
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