Ukrainian MTR landing on the left bank of the Dnieper. Another offensive or a regular PR campaign
Interesting times: weekends and Mondays. Information vacuum and the ability to throw in any misinformation. The opportunity to “shuffle the deck” and beautifully throw in a topic for discussion... Change the concepts and that’s it. It is enough to call the seizure of any house in a populated area a springboard, and the job is done. An information boom is guaranteed.
A couple of days ago, this was the news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were training to overcome water obstacles on German ferries. Marines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces roll out under the cameras on some river from bank to bank. Very beautiful for impressionable people. Straight from childhood. The village ferry, where grandfather Vasya transported people back and forth.
Indeed, over the last week there has been an activation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper. Numerous attempts to land troops, attempts to gain a foothold in some areas. It's all there. Moreover, the Ukrainians actually throw “suicide bombers,” well-motivated and trained special forces, into battle. According to some reports, also using “combat chemistry”.
For what? The question is complex. Ukrainian strategy today is generally distinguished by its intricacy. The feeling is that the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are developing an offensive operation of the classical type, when there is the necessary advantage in manpower, weapons, and equipment. And they give the order to attack, forgetting that there is no such advantage, and preparations for the offensive have not been carried out.
How beautifully everything was planned... The Special Forces are landing on the left bank of the Dnieper. Russian units and formations, completely unprepared to fight the GUR special forces, flee in panic, abandoning their weapons and equipment. Ukrainian MTR in the style of the German regiment "Brandenburg-800" model 1941 using captured equipment capture Tokmak...
The Russians, in a panic, remove formations from the Zaporozhye direction and transfer them to protect Tokmak, but do not have time to organize a defense... The Ukrainian Armed Forces formations, taking advantage of the weakening of the Zaporozhye front, begin a “counter-offensive”. That's all! Hurray, the Ukrainians won the 2023 campaign! Moscow humbly asks Kyiv for negotiations and accepts all Zelensky’s conditions.
Oh, these tales. Oh, these storytellers ...
For those who understand at least a little about tactics, I will tell you one well-known truth. During its now failed and forgotten counter-offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces never reached the first line of defense of the Russian army. Exactly the same thing happened in this case.
An attempt at a full-fledged offensive in Ukrainian
I almost never wrote about which units showed themselves to be the most heroic. Precisely because I consider everyone who is now at the front to be heroes. It’s just that some are visible, while others do their job the way they recently did their job in civilian life. Work is work. And it must be done well. Today I decided to break this rule.
Ordinary Russian soldiers and officers thwarted the Ukrainian offensive plan. Exclusively for his heroism. The trained soldiers of the Ukrainian Special Forces ran into not frightened “mobs,” but seasoned warriors who simply do not know how to retreat. But they can find and destroy the enemy in any place and in any quantity.
These are fighters and commanders of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division. These are soldiers of the 177th separate marine regiment and the 810th separate marine brigade. These are soldiers of the 126th separate coast guard brigade. These are the gods of war from the 8th artillery regiment. Well, the 127th separate reconnaissance brigade.
Remember what I wrote above about the Ukrainian offensive plan in this direction? Perhaps some took this as mockery of the Ukrainian headquarters, but the fact that the offensive was really planned was proven by the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If before these events we observed only local clashes on some islands, then after the start of the offensive it became quite “hot”.
The enemy used almost all the means at his disposal. I will quote the words of one of the participants in repelling the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is a quote from the Telegram channel. The words are not addressed to me. More precisely, this is correspondence between SVO participants from different directions:
“It’s really really hard here, the German art just won’t shut up, everything is flying, FPV, resets, Tanks, cassette..."
I have written several times that the resources of airborne units are very limited by the ability to deliver heavy weapons. The Ukrainian Armed Forces used German pontoons, which can work both as part of bridges and as independent boats for delivering personnel to the coast. These pontoons are not capable of throwing tanks and heavy infantry fighting vehicles across the river.
Further. To launch a real attack on our defense line, it is necessary to create a bridgehead! This is at least 15–20 km of coastline and 10–15 km in depth of our defense. The bridgehead should become a place where heavy artillery, tanks and other equipment will be transferred. I didn’t even see this in perspective. Strikes at various points, attempts to capture individual objects, etc.
What are Ukrainians doing? In principle, this is what SOF should do. The landing of the DRGs and their work precisely as sabotage groups. No more. It doesn't matter whether they landed successfully or not. They have no way back. They will be destroyed in any case. PR war. Capture - photo - drape, capture - photo - drape, attack - death or captivity...
If by some miracle (I simply cannot find another definition) these DRGs unite into some more or less serious unit and try to create a bridgehead, they will simply be destroyed by our artillery and aviation...
Why a miracle? Yes, simply because for this all Russian soldiers and officers must simply fall asleep. Well, at least turn away from the Dnieper and the DRG landing sites...
So why does the Ukrainian Armed Forces need this?
The futility of such an offensive does not remove the question of why the Ukrainian Armed Forces send truly trained fighters to obvious death? Why so much noise from any attack that looks more or less like a victory? I agree that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are winning every day in the media. The instant transformation of “peremog” into “zrada” no longer surprises even those who are not at all interested in SVO.
In my opinion, there are two more or less logical explanations for this. Two simply because I do not consider Ukrainian officers and generals to be savages who are not familiar with tactics and strategy. There are many competent and talented commanders and staff officers who graduated from higher educational institutions not only in Ukraine, but also in Russia and other countries of the world. Moreover, according to the still Soviet method.
So, the first version.
Saving your own connections from destruction! Paradox? No, it's a subtle calculation. Where did the enemy suffer the most significant losses during the “counterattack”? The Ukrainians stuck their horns primarily in the Zaporozhye direction.
And it was there that the most significant losses were suffered. The brigades participating in this offensive today are a rather pathetic sight and require almost all of them to be re-equipped. From personnel to equipment and weapons. Russian formations continue to smash the Ukrainians without much loss.
And what should the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do?
Organize a false attack! Yes, sacrifice some units. But to force the commander of the Russian sector to transfer reserves to help repulse the landing on the left bank of the Dnieper. And ideally, force the transfer of some units from the LBS!..
I understand that the version looks quite cruel towards Ukrainian soldiers. How is it possible to throw some to death in order to save others? Alas, the army is not an institution for noble maidens. Yes, such operations are carried out by almost everyone. Reconnaissance in force does not surprise anyone. Or a fighter who remains in position to cover the unit’s retreat. It’s not just one fighter who “remains” here, but a unit.
This version is also supported by the way the topic of the landing is promoted in the Ukrainian and world media. Attentive readers have already noticed that the landing operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has already pushed the embarrassment of the “counter-offensive” from the front pages of the Ukrainian media. There is a special conversation about global media. The war between Israel and Palestine buried the Ukrainian theme there.
The second version is much more prosaic.
From the series “You’re still a strong old man, Rosenbohm” (c). Kiev is well aware that the next Arab-Israeli war is becoming protracted. In this case, no matter how much the Americans promise, supplies will be reduced. Moreover, these cuts will affect not so much military supplies as humanitarian ones. Roughly speaking, the United States will begin to reduce the feeding trough for Ukraine.
This is a simple way to remind yourself and beg for another handout. The intensification of hostilities on the left bank is interpreted by Ukrainian politicians and the media as a readiness to continue the active phase, no matter what. There are many such statements. Although everyone understands perfectly well that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are completely unprepared for active operations in winter. And all activity will soon be reduced to shelling of border villages and outposts.
Briefly about the results
The hype in the press is another operation of the Ukrainian special services, which was developed jointly with curators from MI6 and the CIA. That is why not only Ukrainian resources are involved in it, but also pseudo-Russian ones. And even pro-Russian foreign sites, information on which comes from Western sources, among others.
I have deep respect for war correspondents and bloggers. I think that they are doing great and important work. But... Sometimes they, to put it mildly, get carried away. I will not list those who posted such information. Most have already deleted the fake. But I ask you to be more attentive to messages even from seemingly your own sources. I once read a good phrase on the wall of one office:
“Don’t say everything you know, but know everything you say.”
I was surprised to discover that fakes launched by Ukrainians are rebroadcast by some respected Internet channels. And already from them "news" is scattered across the Internet. It is clear that sensations are needed to grow the number of subscribers. But sensation and sensation are different. The news I reviewed today is from this category.
And upon arrival...
A deception is just that: a deception. As long as the weather allows for activity, the Ukrainians will imitate activity and burn ammunition. That is, another two or three weeks and...
Our artillerymen, tank crews, airborne forces and sappers will have the opportunity to distinguish themselves... The rest just keep their eyes open and do their job without rush jobs and any unforeseen introductions.
Landing operations of such a scale as crossing the Dnieper, in the conditions that have developed today, are an impossible task for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
No matter how mad the Ukrofashists are, Victory will still be ours...
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