A little about the speed of advance of the Russian army. To take or not to take Avdiivka at any cost
Feedback from readers allows you not only to know the assessment of your own work, but also almost always raises questions that require answers. I already wrote about this in my materials. Today readers are most interested in Avdeevka. Interesting, so to speak, from a practical point of view. When will we finally take this fortification? When will the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose the opportunity to terrorize Donetsk with impunity?
At the same time, many simply do not take into account the fact that today almost the same units that were actively defending in the spring and summer are attacking north and south of this fortified area. Our army has so far hardly used its strategic reserves. That is, now there is actually the same war that was waged all the past months, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to conduct their “counter-offensive.”
Our Supreme Commander in his recent interview stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counter-offensive failed, but they continue to prepare an offensive in some sectors of the front. And there were also words that the Russian troops were not only confidently defending themselves, but also improving their position, occupying more advantageous positions.
Let me add some information to the president’s statement. It became clear to the Americans that the counteroffensive had failed at about the same time that we realized it. That is why, taking into account the current realities, the Pentagon developed a plan for a “new type of war,” or more precisely, a war of attrition for Russia. More on this below.
But now Kyiv and the Pentagon are waiting for the autumn thaw, which will stop active hostilities and help the Ukrainian Armed Forces pin down tank units of the Russian army. And the West will begin active supplies of air defense systems and the formation of new Air Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Thus, the Americans plan to form formations for a new counter-offensive by spring and make up for the losses of existing formations, and advance with the support aviation and active opposition to our aerospace forces.
War of attrition for Russia
Let's return to the war of attrition plan.
For some reason, in some articles and comments I often come across offensive statements. We are stronger than everyone and therefore “Forward attack!” As if we are really only at war with Ukraine. The valor of the army must be supported by the strength of the economy. And the Western economy is not nearly as weak as we would like.
The elements of this war are already visible quite easily. In addition to the formation of new formations and supplies of air defense systems, it seems to me that a decision will be made on the supply of aircraft to Ukraine already in November. Let's leave the tales that there are no planes and never will be for children. There are planes. And they are in countries that even NATO does not take seriously.
So whether they have aviation or not is not particularly important for the alliance. According to some analysts, the bloc will be able to supply up to 100 or even 150 fighters and fighter-bombers without compromising its own defense capabilities. And it doesn’t matter whether these are only American aircraft or aircraft produced in other countries, but unified for NATO weapons.
Next.
Many people have probably noticed how the Crimean direction has become more active. Incursions by saboteurs, attacks on ships, sea and air drones etc. It is clear that all this cannot be called attempts to seize the peninsula. Then what is it? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that the goal of all these attacks and attacks should be considered to be the destabilization of Crimean society. Transformation of the region into a full-fledged front section.
Just yesterday another point was confirmed, the existence of which I was not sure. Information has emerged that medium-range missiles have been delivered to Ukraine from the United States. Delivered secretly. Well, the Americans did not become original in this. Everything is according to a proven scheme. First deliveries, then a statement of the decision to allow these deliveries.
And this suggests that Washington agreed with Kyiv’s proposal to expand the Northeast Military District zone at the expense of the border regions of Russia and, possibly, Belarus. But this is in case of a decision to expand the scale of the war at the expense of Poland. This is an unpleasant fact, forcing us to increase the number of troops in these regions or switch to war tactics “a la Israel.”
Well, one more thing.
The West does not yet know how to solve the problem of the lack of tanks in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, even if a political decision is made, it is quite difficult to physically deliver tanks to Ukraine. That is why, at least for the winter campaign, it was decided to transfer the war to the format of “maintaining databases in small groups”, which is what it looks like in practice - we have been seeing it for many months now.
The only thing that confuses me is the events in Israel.
It is quite possible that American tanks will “be found” there. They will be delivered to help Israel, and then, as has happened more than once, they will be abandoned for “economic reasons,” and will be transferred from the Jewish state to Kiev “as unnecessary.” But for this it is necessary to end the war between Israel and Palestine.
Delusions of grandeur or loss of political orientation
Analyzing the situation in the Northern Military District zone, it is impossible not to touch upon foreign policy issues. Only the lazy did not write about the fact that Kyiv is not independent in its decisions. This fact no longer comes as a surprise even to Ukrainians. They have long ago, even without publicly declaring it, agreed that they are not capable of creating an effective state on their own.
Naturally, the Ukrainian government decided that the “foremen” from Washington are the best builders of new states. On the basis of what facts this decision was made, no one knows to this day. Dollars still solve many issues, it seems to me. Especially if they migrate to the right wallets or to the right bank accounts.
Recently, a presidential candidate of a major power with the call sign “Beadon” made an important statement. He considers his main task after his election to be the fight against Putin. Not stabilizing the situation within the country, not boosting the economy, not resolving international conflicts, but fighting a specific person.
Considering that Mr. candidate with the call sign “Beadon” and the current US President Biden are very similar to each other, practically the same person, it becomes clear why the wars do not stop. Why are Americans increasingly talking about the falling standard of living in the United States? The main goal is Putin!
The West has lost its bearings, lost its goal. Even today, after it is no longer possible to hide failures in foreign policy, they continue to believe in their strength and our weakness.
Speed of action is important... for diarrhea
While I was working on this material, what I predicted above happened. The Americans have supplied missiles capable of hitting targets far enough from the LBS. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already carried out the first shelling in the Kherson region. That is, Washington’s strategic plan began to be implemented.
I have already written that the army, with all the understanding of this problem, is a structure of limited mobility in strategic terms. Like a rhinoceros. Once the movement has started, it is very difficult to stop it. The complexity of the army mechanism does not provide for speed in the implementation of strategic decisions.
The fighting continues. From time to time the battles are very tough. At the same time, no matter how paradoxical it may sound, the situation of the spring offensive remains. The Ukrainian Armed Forces attack more often than the Russians, while the Russian army improves its position due to the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. I would call what is happening today at the LBS “memories of the future” for our army.
Units that work well in defense slowly learn to attack. They “remember” offensive tactics. I understand that now there will be “heroes” who will demand an immediate attack and are ready to go in the forefront of the attack. And even be the first to die. “We want to drive the fascists away from our cities and towns, even at the cost of our lives!”
Who gave you this price? How many lives is Avdiivka “worth”? How many lives are other Ukrainian cities worth? We criticized our officers and generals a lot for the losses in the first months of the war. Some even called for mass removal and punishment of commanders for losses. Now our calls have been completely reversed? Take it at any cost?..
The plan that I wrote about above, I repeat, has begun to be implemented. Forcing our advance will increase our losses. Consequently, in order to capture some bridgehead or city, we will bleed the advancing units. And we will be forced to go on the defensive. Which, in principle, is what Western strategists are trying to achieve.
Their logic is this: it’s winter, the Russians are resting on the defensive after the offensive, and we (the West) are pumping new equipment, aircraft, and ammunition into the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We (the West) are preparing Ukraine for a new round of “counter-offensive”. Europe is already producing up to 300 thousand shells. This will be enough for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for six months of war...
This is a completely logical conclusion. We must attack wisely. The Ukrainian army must be forced not to create arsenals and prepare reserves, but to waste weapons and personnel in crazy attacks on foot.
I won’t draw any conclusions today. Simply because I know my readers are competent enough to decide for themselves what needs to be done.
Information