Avdeevsky boiler?
I read Russian Telegram channels and am surprised at how some readers comment on the intensification of hostilities near Avdeevka. For some reason, most readers are expecting an assault on the city and the quick destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, they completely ignore the change in tactics of our formations.
There is no attack on Avdeevka yet!
The Russian Army is attacking from the north and south of the city. The goal is clear. Take the city into a ring. Eliminate the possibility of supply and rotation of personnel. Today this is obvious. The city itself is now being treated very seriously by artillery and aerospace forces. We are destroying military facilities that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have built over the years of being in this suburb of Donetsk.
I will not analyze how the operation to liberate Avdeevka is going. Today I will simply answer all readers at once. Straight to point.
The questions are very often repeated, and this will not be difficult to do. This is my opinion, my conclusions. In no way connected with any exclusive data from our military or any other sources.
Answers to readers
So, why did it take us so long to start the operation to liberate the city?
It seems to me that the main obstacle to the start of the operation was the presence of toxic substances at the coke plant.
There was no exact information about the quantity of such substances. Thus, a strike on the plant could lead to the contamination of a vast territory and the death of the civilian population of the DPR.
I think that intelligence has worked out this issue, and now we know how much is stored, where and how...
Well, the second reason is the “counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
Spreading your energy in such a situation is simply stupid. Even now, attempts to attack in small groups continue.
We will destroy Ukrainian units in the same way as before. Avoid hand-to-hand combat whenever possible. Artillery, drones, VKS and everything that allows you to destroy the enemy from a distance. The fighters must be pitied and not thrown into an assault on the defensive positions without appropriate processing of enemy positions.
Well, and the climate factor.
Autumn soon. The same slush and dirt that will stop heavy equipment. So, given the possibilities aviation The Armed Forces of Ukraine will have nowhere to wait for help for the Avdeevka garrison. The supply will be completely cut off. No ammunition, no replenishment, no food...
Now about the system of underground passages.
Oddly enough, many experts, including active military personnel, write about underground passages as one of the dangers. The Wehrmacht soldiers sit in them during shelling, and during an attack they will crawl out of their holes, and then the task will be very complicated. I even read from someone that the Avdeevka subway is quite comparable to the Mariupol Azovstal.
Let me remind you that the Russian Army has already taken underground structures in Mariupol, Artemovsk and other cities. So we have experience working with such defenses. I specifically consulted with those who are familiar with the Avdiivka subway. It is very far from the Mariupol underground structures. Although it can fray quite a few nerves.
I don’t think that the commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not study the experience of fighting in Azovstal. This means they understand that after encircling the city they will have three options. Or retreat at the first opportunity, breaking through the cauldron. This is, of course, doubtful, but a chance. Or give up. If you're lucky. Or go to Bandera for an audience.
Well, we know and know how to make the life of underground rats unbearable.
Next is the question of why the Ukrainian Armed Forces units were unable to organize defense to the north and south of the city. After all, the cornice was visible even to non-military readers.
I will disappoint some. The defense was well organized and equipped. Our scouts helped a lot. The operation began at the moment when the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to rotate personnel. Change of divisions!
The old people have moved away, but the newcomers have not yet taken a closer look. And immediately under a massive blow from our artillery. Moreover, some military officers, whom I certainly believe, say that such processing of LBS has not been seen since the beginning of the SVO.
In general, a classic of offensive operations. They hit me with a large and trained fist.
Well, the last question about the prospects.
I think I have already answered this question. The APU is waiting for another boiler. Another defeat. But in order for this cauldron to take place, very serious efforts must be made. The operation has just begun.
We summarize
The need for such an operation has been obvious for a long time. How long can you tolerate bullying of the residents of Donetsk and the villages adjacent to it. It is known that the main attacks on the civilian population were carried out from Avdiivka. Of course, the liberation of this suburb will not completely solve the problem of shelling of Donetsk, but it will significantly reduce the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces spent almost eight years building this fortified area. Defense lines were concreted, defensive structures were erected and engineering equipment was installed. This is a huge amount of work that requires not only money, but also time. In the event of the loss of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces simply will not have enough time to create something similar somewhere else.
In general, according to my observations, the initiative passes to the Russian troops.
Having exhausted the Ukrainian Armed Forces with active defense, we are going on the offensive. What was supposed to happen is happening.
I don't think the offensive will be global. It is enough for us to improve the positions of our units and from there continue to grind the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
As Zelensky rightly says, time is on our side.
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