Are we for Israel or for Palestine?
Today, of course, the world is divided into two camps, those who support Israel and those who support Hamas. Regardless of my approach to the issue, I cannot say that Hamas is Palestine and vice versa.
It is very difficult to assess what is happening. Many opinions, many thoughts and a lot of strange things. Today we can say for sure that the operation that the Hamas command began to implement shows very decent preparation, the versatility with which the Hamas forces acted in general speaks volumes about this. Perhaps the operation would have been more successful and would have even received some recognition from the world community if it had not been for the massacres of civilians by Arabs. In particular, taking hostage citizens of other countries.
In general, the attack is more than strange, both in terms of quality and timing. In terms of time - especially, because it very much played into the hands of Netanyahu, whom the whole country was against because of his judicial reform, and what’s more, even his European allies criticized. And such small things as criminal cases on charges of fraud, bribery and embezzlement - that’s all forgotten. Israel, as usual, rallied around the leader when there was a smell of burning. This cannot be taken away from them; they will sort it out later, and I’m sure they will. Perhaps after the victory they will give a discount.
But overall, Netanyahu benefited greatly from the attack. About the same as Zelensky last year.
Who else benefits? USA? Well, of course, our beloved ones are not just busy there – they’re busy!
"Comprehensive Security Pact"
A political detective story unfolded right there, but it didn’t unfold, one could have read it. The United States offered Saudi Arabia a kind of “Comprehensive Security Pact”, which is more like an ultimatum.
The essence of the proposal: the SA completely abandons cooperation with third countries (this is Russia and China, if anything) and completely switches to NATO arsenal. In fact, Russia did not supply anything to the SA in terms of military equipment, but in 2021 a military cooperation agreement was concluded. Which did not oblige anyone to anything. China also marked itself only with the supply of self-propelled guns and nothing more. This is all, so to speak, for the future and for avoidance.
As a carrot, the United States offered a rather generous program for the development of nuclear energy. As an additional burden - the restoration of diplomatic relations with Israel, starting with the recognition of this country and ending with everything else.
In general, the plan is straightforward and simple, like a barrel of oil. OPEC has long annoyed the United States with its openly independent position in matters of regulating prices by the level of oil production, and making this issue more predictable for the United States is very interesting.
But in the realities of today, the continuation of the dialogue between the SA and Israel is very unlikely. Yes, the dialogue could have taken place fully and led to certain shifts in relations between the two countries, but today, when all Arab channels are full of videos from Gaza, which the Israeli Air Force is methodically turning into Bakhmut, this is doubtful.
And the point here is that the attempt to buy the Saudis with such generous offers on the part of the United States was justified by the desire to secure its main ally in the region. After all, if Saudi Arabia and Israel make peace, there will be no problems! SA money would stop flowing like a river into the coffers of various Muslim groups; in Jerusalem they could exhale, because the very idea of Palestine with its capital in Jerusalem, albeit Eastern, would die out on its own.
But today, for the SA to continue negotiations with Israel means to lose face in the eyes of the entire Muslim world of the Middle East, the leadership of which the SA not only claims, but actually personifies. And therefore, today, when Israel is naturally turning Gaza into a heap of broken bricks and rubble (as promised), when the area is one step away from a humanitarian catastrophe, there is somehow no time for agreements.
So it’s hard to call the United States the beneficiaries of what happened. It's more of a "Something went wrong" situation.
"Common Front against Israel"
Well, if Hezbollah from Lebanon gets involved in all this, then things will start to happen that there will be no time for politics at all. If you combine the radicals of two movements, the Sunni Hamas and the Shiite Hezbollah, into one, then such a surge of violence will begin in the region...
Moreover, there is no doubt that Israel will fight back again. The only question is - at what cost. The fighters will drink blood from the heart.
Many people are already talking about some kind of “common front against Israel.” Forgetting, however, that this has already happened more than once. And although “the IDF is not the same,” terrorist organizations like the Taliban are not the army of Egypt or Libya. The Jews will fight back.
Yes, this is where the Taliban emerged. Together with Hezbollah. They seemed to be supportive, they even seemed to express a desire to come in, but... something also went wrong. As happened not so long ago with one army that was chasing the rebels. Well, the gasoline wasn’t delivered on time, so they couldn’t. Otherwise, all the pieces would fly away. In general, Hamas's brethren arms demonstrated a principle long ago outlined in a children's poem by the great Soviet poet: “We would be on the enemy’s horns. Only the skin is dear to us, and the horns are not cheap these days either.”
So dreams of some kind of double or triple front against Israel are still only words that Eastern diplomats are great experts at. But we have a case where in words everyone is “For”, approves and supports, but the Israeli Air Force is, you know, the Israeli Air Force. It hurts. That’s why the Khezi, the Taliban, the Iranians, the Saudis, the Qataris all support. But in words.
So there will be no general jihad. At least until Israel’s opponents clearly calculate everything in terms of possibilities. An openly suicidal attack by Hamas, we honestly admit, whose goal is mainly to terrorize the civilian population, it is strange. On the brink of a dead-end question about what they were even counting on? To the mass surrender of Jews? To surrender?
Well, definitely no one took the ruins of Gaza into account. Or they accepted it, but those who were neither hot nor cold from it. And here we come to the main beneficiary.
Iran
Persians are amazing guys. And without directly entering the war, they were able to get quite a decent amount for themselves. At least the Iranian military personnel and scientists killed in recent years have been more than avenged. It is a fact.
A simply colossal amount of military information has been collected. About the permeability of borders, both air and ground, about the effectiveness of the “iron dome,” about the speed of response of the military command and civilian government structures, and much more.
In addition, a huge image blow to Israel. Gaza will have to be razed to the roots, because the unshakable postulate that Israel must be feared has been shaken. And, at the same time, Iran, as the main defender of the Palestinians, leaves Turkey far behind in this regard. It’s worth saying a few words about Turkey next.
In addition, correctly presented information about “Israeli atrocities in Gaza” will attract an additional number of young recruits with hotheads to the ranks of the IRGC. And how to properly use hot heads - here the leaders of this structure do not need to be taught. They can do everything, and have been doing it for a long time.
And since Iran is in open hostility with Israel and is considered an ally of Hamas (what is it - it’s clear that Hamas is supported, let’s not spread the mess on the table), and if Saudi Arabia were to move towards rapprochement with Israel, it is doubtful that The ayatollahs would have accepted this as something normal. Vice versa. And it was precisely Iran that could push Hamas to attack in order to disrupt this tasty agreement once and for all. And if this is so, applause for Iran. And at the same time, an understanding of such a powerful message to Washington: you do everything you can over there, and here we do everything we want.
Well, after Israel finishes destroying Gaza, there will be no talk of any peace negotiations or alliances at all. And the weakening of Israel and the United States is at the same time the rise of Iran in the Muslim world.
In general, a great strategy: winning wars without literally fighting. After all, in recent years we have been observing the simply luxurious maneuvers of Iran, which does not allow itself to be drawn into a war directly, but at the same time receiving maximum benefits from regional conflicts.
What is the goal of those who play the Iranian game? Strengthen the country as much as possible, weaken the enemies as much as possible. This is, in theory, how any government of any country should act. Iran does not fight, but it is excellent at striking and weakening its enemies through pieces on the military-political board such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Hashd-Shaabi, Kataib Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and others like them. It doesn’t matter what the figures are, what matters is how many there are and how they are used.
Iran's list of such victories is impressive. Lebanon. Syria. Iraq. Yemen. And Gaza is exactly the same pawn in a chess game played by Iranian experts in their field.
Turkey
This is someone who cannot be called a calm observer or someone who has had something... More precisely, not something, but something. In general, Erdogan, with his pan-Turkish habits, will sooner or later lead the country to political (and other) problems. In reality, Turkey has somehow strangely divided its interests between Syria, Kurdistan and Transcaucasia. And if in terms of Karabakh and Azerbaijan everything worked out quite well, then in other places...
It’s good that the Armenians surrendered without a fight, otherwise they would have had three non-war on their hands. And what is happening with the Kurds and in Syria is beyond the roof to provide the Turkish leader with a headache.
And then there is the support of Palestine, in which the builder of the Ottoman Empire, at least in words, got stuck in the most profound way. After all, NATO “comrades” will ask in terms of how Turkey supported Hamas. And with what. A kind word is one thing, but, for example, Drones - This is completely different.
And Erdogan’s dream of joining the EEC is again dying... And today Ankara is cautiously calling for restraint (we would like to understand how this is), but Erdogan’s political opponents have flocked like black crows and demand to protect their own. “Ours” are, naturally, the Palestinians.
But Erdogan cannot protect “his own”. Because those who are other “friends” are from NATO, they are somehow for Israel. In general, it’s a so-so gymnastic exercise.
China
And what does China have to do with it? Oh, and China is right on topic! And not just in the topic, he sits there very tightly. In general, China volunteered to facilitate the next round of negotiations between Israel and Palestine. Moreover, the basis was the proposals of Chinese President Xi Jinping, consisting of as many as three parts.
Now it’s difficult to predict anything; at this rate, most likely, there will be no one and no one with whom to negotiate. But if you look closely at China’s position, it is more than cautious. There are no condemnations, unlike the USA, India, Japan and other countries, this position is completely neutral. No condemnation of Hamas.
And official Beijing simply called for an immediate ceasefire and repeated that the only way out of the situation is the creation of two states, one of which will be an independent Palestine.
Meanwhile, Mahmoud Abbas is a normal guest in China. But China also maintains quite normal relations with Israel.
In March of this year, it was through the mediation of China that negotiations took place between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which did not make them friends, but a certain diplomatic rapprochement was visible.
In general, the PRC continues to try on the uniform of a world peacemaker, earning points. The desire not to oppose Israel, which is backed by the United States, which is already pretty tired of China with its ambitions, is understandable, but Hamas, which is opposed by the whole of Europe and the United States, is also somehow inappropriate to touch.
In general, such neutrality is beneficial.
What about Russia?
Here it is very appropriate to ask: what about Russia? No, of course there is a certain profit. Everything that happens has one positive aspect: the United States, quite expectedly, will rush to the aid of its ally. Real. Accordingly, not only will everyone forget about Ukraine, but they will not help so generously.
More precisely, the Germans will take the rap, but you won’t get as much from them as from the United States. But the Ukrainian map is not as important as the Israeli one, since everyone in school geography courses knows that Ukraine is very far from the traditional hydrocarbon locations. And when a fire breaks out where SA, the UAE and Qatar are located, the fire brigade under the stars and stripes rushes to the other side of the world to restore order.
Let’s not argue with the fact that the Middle East is today the cradle of the Apocalypse and the larva of the Third World War. Previously, about 120 years ago, the Balkans had such explosive fame, where something like this was constantly brewing. But for the last 50 years, the Middle East has been that place. And not a single conflict can compare with what is happening there, but it happens there all the time.
So who should we be for?
And here the most important question is: is it necessary?
In general, it’s probably not necessary. Our interests are primarily here, that is, in new territories. And it would also be nice to restore order in the country itself.
Prying into the Middle East is nothing more than passing off something from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the area of expressing concerns. No one will listen anyway, by and large.
In Soviet times, and even in Russian times, it somehow happened that we were like a cork in every barrel. And the whole world was divided into “ours” and “not ours”. And, accordingly, they rushed to support someone. Money, weapons, personnel...
Today you know how we deal with money. But you need weapons yourself, there’s no time for fat. And who should we support? Israel? Yes, there are still many of our former compatriots there. But this is not a reason, and there is nothing to support it: the grenades there, as they say, are of the wrong system. Hamas? You know, there is, of course, a question of scrupulousness. These ones in tracksuits and flip-flops, enthusiastically shooting civilians, everyone in a row - well, so-so allies. In general, the question arises: what, or more precisely, who will they do when the Jews run out?
Bad question. The answer could be even worse.
In fact, the conflict between Israel and Palestine will end when the last Jew or Palestinian dies. And here it’s worth thinking about who to pay a courtesy visit to next.
In general, I have virtually no doubt that victory will be Israel’s, and this has a certain essence. In one of the TG channels I came across such a statement that it is still unknown who is worse to deal with, the Arabs will come to us, or the Jews. I answered there with the following example from our past: at one time there was a fire in Chechnya. And many representatives of Qatar, Yemen, SA, the UAE and other countries were sent to the next world.
So this war is so not ours that it hurts our cheekbones. Therefore, the best thing that could be thought of is to take a position of complete neutrality. And pay the winner a courtesy visit with congratulations. In the soul, everyone, of course, can take a certain position and draw conclusions with whom they are in soul. But this is everyone's business.
However, in this stories There is one more point directly related to us and our country. But its discussion will have to be included in a separate article, and when it appears, that’s where we’ll talk about what prospects we have.
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