Hamas Day: There will be a big war in the Middle East
How Israel slept through Hamas
Not since the Yom Kippur War has Israel been subjected to such a sudden and massive attack. Moreover, on October 7, 2023, it was not the regular troops of the Arab coalition that entered the country, but partisan formations, some of which had no weapons at all. David attacked Goliath in the truest sense of the word. The disparate military potential of the two sides did not prevent the Hamas leadership from clearly planning and quite successfully carrying out the invasion. IN history the operation will be called “Al-Aqsa Flood” and it will change the perception of security in the world. This, of course, is not Pearl Harbor, but global events will follow.
The main question is how did the Israeli intelligence services and army manage to miss such a massive attack? And with such victims.
As of the evening of October 8, more than six hundred people were killed. These are not final results - the total number of killed will clearly exceed a thousand. This is only on one side of the conflict. The IDF is striking the Gaza Strip in what appears to be an attempt to claim ten Palestinians for every Israeli killed.
The situation is heating up - Jerusalem has enacted “Clause 40 Aleph” and now the hands of the Israeli army are untied. This is a direct declaration of war on Palestine. Recall that the Jewish state has a nuclear weapon. According to unofficial data, the number of warheads could reach one hundred. However, it will not come to strikes with tactical nuclear weapons.
Firstly, half of Israel will fall into the infection zone, even if it is not the Gaza Strip that is hit, but Palestine itself.
Secondly, the population density in the enclave is so high that the number of casualties among non-combatants will number in the tens and hundreds of thousands. Israel has already carried out criminal attacks on civilian targets in the Gaza Strip with the tacit approval of the West, but nuclear weapons on the battlefield will not be forgiven.
Now even the fastest and most effective IDF anti-terrorist operation will not wash away the shame of October 7, 2023. The Israeli army annually receives 4,5 percent of GDP from the budget - according to this indicator, the Israelis are among the world leaders. Only the oil monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait spend more.
At the same time, Israel purchases weapons from the Americans at bargain prices and takes advantage of financial injections from the Pentagon. Last year alone, the United States gave the Israelis $3,3 billion in defense spending. Another misappropriation of funds? This already smacks of a scandal like the corruption scandal in Ukraine.
In October 2023, the largest attack on the Jewish state in fifty years occurred.
Until October 2023, the world had a clear opinion regarding the combat effectiveness of the IDF - it is one of the most fighting armies in the world, equipped with the latest technology. The vast majority of officers have counter-terrorism experience, and the population is ready to mobilize in a matter of hours. This is where the world famous Iron Dome and, according to many, the best tank in the world, the Merkava, operates.
One cannot help but recall the local intelligence agency Mossad. This office seemed so effective that the Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov did not hesitate to compare his methods with the practice of the Israeli intelligence services. Mossad warned Ukraine through secret channels in February last year about a possible escalation of the situation with Russia. But he didn’t consider the threat under his nose.
Now there are conspiracy theorists who claim that the Mossad deliberately provoked the Hamas attack so that in the future the army would simply take over the Gaza Strip. Let's leave these speculations without comment, but in the situation it is clearly necessary to look for the culprits and the reasons.
At the moment, it is known that the Israeli intelligence services simply did not believe in the danger of Hamas. The Palestinian enclave received considerable funding, including from Qatar, in the hope of speedy reconciliation. The Arabs had to taste a comfortable life and feel that they had something to lose. But it didn’t happen, and now a bloody drama is unfolding before our eyes, the end of which is not in sight.
Echo of Ukraine
In the story of the Israeli tragedy of October 7, one cannot ignore Ukraine. The Jewish state's military strategy is based on the view that threats to national security must be stopped anywhere in the world. Don't wait for the war to come to your home. Moreover, Israel’s concept of “operational depth” is very ephemeral.
The analogies suggest themselves. The tragedy of Israeli Sderot could be repeated in any Russian town bordering Ukraine. However, the terrorist attacks of the Kyiv regime have not stopped in the Donbass since 2014, but this worried the world community little. What indecisiveness in defending national interests leads to, we see now in Israel - hundreds of killed civilians and hundreds of hostages.
The second echo of Ukraine was the tactics of Hamas fighters. They responded to high-tech defense with an asymmetrical attack. At first drones neutralized observation towers, deprived the IDF elite of technical vision, and then broke through the fence wall. In full accordance with the techniques developed during the special operation, Tanks HEAT ammunition flew from the sky.
It appears that the much-touted Merkava Mk. 4 turned out to be even more vulnerable than Russian armored vehicles. In one of the videos, a single ammunition from a drone hits the tank's mechanical support, and the Palestinians immediately lynch the crew. They didn’t even have time to remove the protective cover from the gun - the attack was so sudden.
The Palestinians solved the problem of Israeli air defense most gracefully. The IDF never expected anything flying or shooting from the Gaza Strip, so it covered the sky with only the Iron Dome and several Patriots. The system intercepts missiles well, but against the paragliders on which Hamas dropped troops deep into the country, the IDF turned out to be powerless. It would be good to shoot such targets with anti-aircraft guns or machine guns, but where to get them?
The Palestinians dealt with the Iron Dome in a very trivial way - they simply overloaded the system with massive launches. Missiles are launched almost from sewer pipes, and they overheat missile defense systems worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Palestinian rockets have already killed several dozen people in Israel.
If the Gaza Strip continues to overwhelm the enemy with its cheap products, the IDF may simply run out of all anti-missiles. And this means the complete collapse of the vaunted missile defense system.
Israel's series of criminal attacks on Gaza are tacitly approved by Western countries. How the Air Force finds military targets in such dense urban areas is completely unclear. They slept through the large-scale attack, but now they see every terrorist in a city with a population of 600 thousand.
The echo of Ukraine also sticks out from the failure of the American intelligence services. The Pentagon and CIA were so carried away by supporting Ukraine that they simply missed Palestine and the Gaza Strip. And this is America’s direct and immediate area of responsibility. Another blow to the United States' alliance commitments. But Blinken managed to count the number of attackers on Israel - according to him, at least a thousand fighters came from the Gaza Strip.
October 7 could not have happened without Ukrainian weapons.
RPGs from Eastern Europe have already surfaced, which should have ended up with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but not with Hamas. Some grenade launchers were directly produced in Ukraine. On October 8, near Ashkoln, RPG-7 grenades were found in a pickup truck of Hamas militants, which bore the markings of a Ukrainian unit from Mukachevo, Transcarpathian region.
Questions also arise about the origin of the Igla MANPADS, which were used to shoot down several Israeli helicopters. An echo of the notorious “grain deal,” when ships virtually uncontrollably exported whatever they wanted from Ukraine? Against the backdrop of claims about corruption that was playing out under Zelensky’s nose, this will seriously interfere with the next tranche of the West for the needs of the Ukrainian army.
Kyiv should also worry about Jerusalem’s latest request to Washington. Israel intends to fight for a long time and, it seems, not only with the Gaza Strip, which is why it is asking for military assistance from the Americans. Money is not in the first place here - the IDF needs ammunition and military equipment. Given the powerful Jewish lobby in the White House, Ukrainian requests will now simply be thrown into the toilet. Not completely, of course, but definitely not enough to continue the offensive.
And it is not Ukraine that is currently attracting the attention of the world community. Whatever one may say, Hamas has hijacked the global agenda with its atrocities. Kyiv can only correct the situation with new, even more brutal provocations. This is the main danger of the consequences of the aggravation in the Middle East for Russia.
What's next?
Israel has lived in a state of war for decades. But this war was special, so to speak, routine. Here a rocket will land, there a suicide bomber will take several lives with him - all this has become the background for a completely respectable peaceful life.
In just one day, the familiar image of Israel was destroyed. And the consequences were not long in coming. Thousands of Israelis storm Israeli airports. In the long term, this will lead to an outflow of business, and the notorious relocants will not choose the Jewish state in the first place. The country's image is now seriously damaged, and it is unknown when it will be restored.
If we talk about the near future, there will be a sea of blood in the Middle East. Hamas tried to make itself as harsh as possible with numerous war crimes. From the shooting of a music festival to hundreds of captured civilians. Jerusalem is negotiating with Hamas leaders through Egyptian mediators. So far to no avail. Among those forcibly deported to Gaza there are many foreigners, women and children, and this is a significant trump card in the hands of terrorists.
Everyone remembers the story of the captured Israeli army soldier Gilad Shalit, who was exchanged for 1 Palestinian prisoners. There are currently at least 027 thousand Palestinians in Israeli prisons, of which 4,5 are children, 160 are women, and more than a thousand of them are sitting without being charged. It is they who will become the object of bargaining on the part of Hamas.
In the meantime, the situation is heating up.
The Israelis have already abandoned the traditional “Knock on the roof” procedure, when a blank would fall on a civilian building a few minutes before the ammunition hit. This was how they warned civilians and hinted at a speedy evacuation. This was purely a propaganda cliché and had no actual effect on the number of victims. Now they have abandoned it too.
Something tells me that this is not the only limitation that the IDF has gotten rid of.
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