One step away from a nuclear explosion: test sites come to life around the world
Americans see signs of activity on Novaya Zemlya. Source: edition.cnn.com
90 seconds to midnight
Panic, as usual, was triggered in the West. In January 2023, nuclear scientists at the Science and Security Council once again reset the hands of the Doomsday Clock. Now there are only 90 seconds until the apocalyptic midnight - such closeness to nuclear war has not been seen in stories never.
The key culprit for this turn, of course, is Russian special operations in Ukraine. The fighting in the area of the Zaporozhye and Chernobyl nuclear power plants is of particular concern. At the same time, Russia has repeatedly allowed IAEA observers in and actually proved criminal attacks on the station by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
With all the drama of what is happening with the Doomsday Clock, it should be understood that the hand was moved to the right by only 10 seconds. This is the closest thing to the apocalypse in the last eleven years. For example, in 2015, the needle was pulled back by two minutes at once, including due to the situation in eastern Ukraine.
And now, when in 2022 the world almost collapsed into a world war, the minute hand was moved very modestly. There are two explanations for what happened.
Firstly, over the past decades, nuclear scientists have been very zealous in pulling the needle towards midnight. For example, in 1998, the Day of Judgment was brought closer by five minutes. In the previous year, 1997, everyone was frightened by the nuclear tests of India and Pakistan. The arrows are turned back very reluctantly - in the 2010st century this happened only once in XNUMX. Well done, of course, were the Americans who refused to deploy missile defense in Europe.
Since then, the needle has either stood still or moved towards midnight.
As a result, by 2023 a situation has developed where it would be time to move the needle a couple of minutes to midnight, but there is nowhere. Last year, the world actually almost slipped into a nuclear apocalypse several times. But scientists previously scattered their time so generously that now there is simply no time left. Therefore, only 10 seconds and a full minute and a half until the third world war.
The second explanation for such a modest translation of the arrows was an underestimation of the danger. Nuclear scientists do not fully believe in the possibility of a real conflict between Russia and NATO using nuclear weapons. weapons.
A little history of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, founded with the participation of Albert Einstein in 1945. At the beginning of each year, the Science and Safety Council meets with the Board of Sponsors and decides where to move the clock. By the way, among the consultants there are usually at least ten Nobel laureates.
There is no point in talking about the objectivity of the assembled company - just look at the composition of the councils. There are only graduates of Western universities here, reflecting the opinion of the notorious “golden billion”.
However, the office is still too conservative for modern realities abroad - there is only one black person on the Science and Security Council and not a single representative of the LGBT community. A mess that the watchmakers will certainly correct in the near future.
The Americans also did not waste time at their training ground in Nevada. Source: edition.cnn.com
American nuclear scientists were frightened not only by the 13 thousand units of armed nuclear weapons around the world, but also by several other reasons. Scientists have linked global warming, democratic freedoms, COVID-19 and a bunch of other reasons that have an extremely indirect relationship to nuclear war to the Doomsday Clock. But nuclear scientists have to keep up with trends and take them into account in their analytics.
As if echoing the concerns of the collective West, Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai International Discussion Club in October that it was theoretically possible to revoke the ratification of the nuclear test ban treaty.
This is not the first statement by Vladimir Vladimirovich on this matter. In February of this year, the president said:
“We know that the guaranteed shelf life for combat use of certain types of nuclear weapons in the United States is expiring. And in this regard, some figures in Washington, we know this for certain, are already thinking about the possibility of natural testing of their nuclear weapons, including taking into account the fact that the United States is developing new types of nuclear weapons. Such information exists."
And the most important:
“We, of course, will not be the first to do this, but if the United States conducts tests, then we will conduct them too. No one should have any dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be destroyed.”
At the moment, the relevant orders of Vladimir Putin to Rosatom and the Ministry of Defense are known. A completely forced decision, especially in light of the latest News from nuclear test sites.
Indirect signs
Detonate a nuclear charge over Siberia at an altitude of 100 km to destroy a satellite constellation and as a warning to the West?
Margarita Simonyan considers this quite reasonable. At the same time, we will test nuclear weapons, and the enemy’s satellite constellation will live long. Simonyan’s final opinion is the icing on the cake:
“We will go back to something like 93 - with wired telephones. We lived wonderfully. Well, really, I’ll even be happy! I forbid my children from having gadgets, then I won’t have to explain why everyone has gadgets and they don’t.”
There is nothing special to add to the opinion of the editor-in-chief of the RT television channel and, perhaps, we will leave what was said to the conscience of the author. It would be nice to hear a comment from a journalist about why the airspace over Siberia was chosen as a testing ground, and not over Moscow. Officially, the country's authorities have already denied what was said, but there is no smoke without fire, even it comes from Simonyan.
Thoughts about nuclear testing are surprisingly combined with anxiety in the West. Now they are worried about movements recorded at seemingly abandoned nuclear test sites. At least three objects have come to life so much that the changes are visible from space.
This began long before the special operation in Ukraine - countries have been cleaning up their nuclear test sites for at least three to four years. In Russia, a facility is being set up on Novaya Zemlya, in China in the Xinjiang province (Lop Nur training ground), and the Americans are finishing up the training ground in Nevada. Let us recall that the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty was signed back in 1996.
It was signed, but the Americans and the Chinese did not ratify it. And six more countries with them. And Russia, out of the kindness of her heart, ratified it. This is exactly what Vladimir Putin spoke about when he allowed our country to withdraw ratification of the treaty.
In this situation, Russia will simply stand on a par with the world's leading nuclear powers. Nothing critical will happen. But there will be fewer legal obstacles to realizing Simonyan’s fantasies.
History, as we know, is cyclical, and it is possible that we will see many new nuclear tests in the near future. The only question is who will start first. Russia has never tested weapons of mass destruction in modern history. The Soviet Union carried out its last nuclear explosion in 1990, the United States in 1992, and China four years later.
In China, the Lop Nur training ground is being set up in Xinjiang province. Source: edition.cnn.com
The main events at the three designated training grounds take place underground. According to observers from the United States, long tunnels are being dug, and everything is going to the point that they are preparing for underground explosions.
Who will benefit most from testing nuclear weapons?
First of all, China. Although the pace of development of the arsenal is impressive, China’s nuclear shield is many times inferior to Russia and the United States, even individually. Moreover, Beijing built most of the warheads after 1996, that is, it did not test new systems at all. Some of which are fundamentally new and, in an amicable way, require full-scale testing. At least underground.
The power of Chinese supercomputers can create a realistic picture of any explosion, but who knows how it will actually happen?
While the Americans and the Russians have conducted almost two thousand different tests since the beginning of the nuclear era, China has conducted only about forty. Beijing has much less initial data for calculations than other powers.
In addition, Russia and the United States conducted their tests at almost the peak of their arsenals. Both qualitatively and quantitatively. No fundamentally new means of destruction appeared - only the accuracy and power of warheads increased.
But this does not negate the potential possibility of nuclear tests. Even for the sake of the tests themselves, to show the enemy your determination.
Everything is heading towards the fact that in January 2024 the hand of the Doomsday Clock will be moved back to 10 seconds.
Information