What do the West think about the Ukrainian counter-offensive?
I think everyone understands that people in Kyiv are panicking. Zelensky and his team directly blame the West for the fact that the failure of the counteroffensive is the fault of Western countries. Kyiv's ambitions collided with Russian power weapons, and this panic is quite understandable. The situation is getting worse every day. But we still have to live through autumn and winter...
We’ll talk about what Western politicians, experts and analysts think about this below. I have written more than once that the offensive itself was organized on the initiative of the West. This is practically a win-win option for the West. Based on the main goal of its foreign policy, the West, in the event of a successful outcome of the operation, will deal a serious blow to the army, and most importantly, to the Russian economy.
If the offensive fails, the Russians will dispose of most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And this is a serious blow to the demography of Ukraine. That is, the problem of “overpopulation” of Ukrainian territory is being solved.
Let me remind you that back in 2014-2015, when the idea of creating a world breadbasket, an agricultural superpower in Ukraine, began to actively take root in the minds of crests, Western sources cited more than once or twice the figures for the “optimal number of population” necessary for modern agricultural production.
According to the most optimistic forecasts of Western economists, the maximum figure was 15–20 million people! That is, approximately as much as actually remains on the territory of Ukraine today. The rest - the West is especially interested in Ukrainian women and children - have already left and for the most part will not return.
But this is not enough for the West. In order for a woman to be guaranteed to remain in any European country, it is necessary to make sure that there is simply no reason for her to return. So that she has no roots left in Ukraine. And in this, without wanting it, simply according to the logic of war, the West will be helped... by Russia.
Every killed or maimed soldier is someone's husband. This is the very root that “ties” a woman to the country. Deprive a woman of this root, the opportunity to raise children next to her husband, with a man, and she will find a mate for herself where she will be at that time.
I understand that this is a very cruel truth. The brutal truth, if you like. Look, the kings of animals, lions and their relatives, even domestic cats, do just that. The leader of the pride and all his adult descendants are killed. And then the lionesses become their legal and loving wives...
Politicians need war
Let's start with the main thing.
So, do politicians in the West and in Kyiv want to end the war as soon as possible?
Alas, but, in my opinion, they don’t want to. Ukraine is perfectly fulfilling the West's plan. Moreover, Ukrainians don’t even want to change anything. The ideological treatment was carried out very professionally.
Today, Ukrainians dream that their country will return to the borders of 1991. No arguments against this idea are accepted outright. Moreover, the position of the population of Ukraine completely coincides with the position of Zelensky. Complete withdrawal of troops and payment of reparations. Otherwise, there will be war until the last Ukrainian. Moreover, everyone actively promoting this idea is very far from the front.
But let's get back to the politicians.
The most indicative in this regard is the latest episode with the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kyiv. It is clear that Washington perfectly understands the reason for Zelensky’s panic, and Blinken came to calm the puppet. Give another lollipop to the baby.
But what have we heard about a counteroffensive that is not happening? Blinken, unexpectedly, perhaps even for Kyiv, probably while in a military cemetery, discovered “noticeable progress” of the offensive:
“We have seen noticeable progress in the counter-offensive, which is very pleasing. We want Ukraine to have everything it needs, not only to be successful in the counteroffensive, but also to have everything it needs in the long term to provide a strong deterrent, a strong defensive capability.”
“Shallow Emelya, your week.” It is clear that the American Secretary of State spoke the words that were required to reassure Zelensky. But what he brought in the form of new military aid from the United States is much more difficult to change. Even the pleasant wording “in the amount of $175 million” does not help.
The ubiquitous journalists immediately deciphered “weapons to continue the offensive”:
"Shells with depleted uranium for tanks Abrams, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, explosive ammunition for clearing obstacles, 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition.”
Well, where are the weapons for the offensive?
Shells for American tanks that will not appear on LBS and will be used on self-propelled guns? Only ammunition for clearing obstacles can, and even then conditionally, be classified as offensive weapons. So, guys, you are attacking well, and to strengthen you, we will give you... weapons for defense.
However, Anthony Blinken is based on an analysis of the situation from official intelligence analysts (DIA) of the US Department of Defense. For example, from Trent Maul. For example, Trent Maul predicts the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive, albeit at the level of a breakthrough of only the first line of defense, with a probability of 40–50%.
Simply put, the forecast “in human language” sounds something like this: they won’t break through the defenses, but they can break through... Well, as always, nature has taken up arms against the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Western technology and weapons! In the summer the bushes got in the way, now rain, slush, frost, snow and other frosts will get in the way...
A little earlier than Blinken, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, also spoke out about the Ukrainian counter-offensive. True, unlike the American, Stoltenberg expressed himself more openly and... ambiguously. For some reason, he managed to attribute the successes of the autumn offensive to the spring-summer offensive and somehow “develop” them...
“Experts believed that Ukraine would only hold out for a few days or weeks, but they liberated the north, Kyiv, the east, Kharkov, the territory in the south, Kherson. And now they are achieving even greater success.”
In a previous article, I wrote that Ukrainians live in some kind of world they invented. In that world they win. In that world, the whole world supports them. In that world, Russia is about to collapse and so on. As the above quotes show, Europeans and Americans also live in their own world. In the world of your desires.
But their world is much closer to reality than the world of Ukrainians. Their world lives at the expense of such “Ukrainian” worlds. Only one thing is scary. The world that is being destroyed wants to be destroyed. It is believed that his death will save someone, benefit someone...
No matter how much we would like it, the politicians on the other side will not stop. They really won’t stop until the last Ukrainian. They need war!
What are they talking about in closed online communities in the USA?
It was not for nothing that I started from a position of power. The authorities in Kyiv, the authorities in Washington, the authorities in NATO.
We have written quite a lot about who and why set one fraternal people against another, who benefited from it and what goals were being pursued. But let’s talk about what those, especially Americans, who know a little more than others think here.
In general, based on the tasks assigned to the Ukrainian Armed Forces before the start of the counteroffensive, both American and European analysts agree that the operation failed. For the most part, experts note that not a single one of the assigned tasks has been completed even half. The Russian defense turned out to be insurmountable for the Ukrainian brigades.
Scott Ritter, a well-known ex-intelligence officer of the US Marine Corps in Russia, spoke quite directly about this matter, literally immediately after the statement by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg:
“If you want to call sustainable progress the way the Ukrainians are crawling forward, capturing 10 meters here and there, while losing hundreds, if not thousands of soldiers, the flag is in your hands! According to the plan, Ukraine was already supposed to be in Tokmak, moving towards Melitopol. But they are still banging their heads against the Russian first line.”
Ritter has quite a few supporters who also express radical views. Moreover, if earlier analysts wrote that Kyiv lacks Western arms supplies, today the main emphasis is on the quality of personnel. The replenishment that comes to the active brigades cannot be compared with the replenishment of Russian formations.
I was struck by one conclusion of Western analysts. I mean a comparison of the MTR of Ukraine and Russia. Naturally, the operations of units of this kind do not often appear in the public space. And even then, the overwhelming majority of such messages are a figment of the imagination of journalists and bloggers. But nevertheless, the West recognizes the fact that Russian special forces operate much more efficiently than Ukrainian ones.
Less radical analysts, who proceed from the fact that the attackers’ tasks can change during the course of the offensive, which, by the way, includes the majority of European specialists, say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can still fulfill the minimum task. Have time to take control of some settlements and territories that will become a springboard for a new spring offensive.
But in order for this to happen, it is necessary that with the onset of the mud, active databases are reduced to a minimum. And on both sides. That is, it is actually assumed that after the end of the active phase, both sides will begin preparations for next year. This will enable the West to find or produce the necessary weapons and ammunition to replenish Ukrainian arsenals.
If this does not happen, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will find itself in a very unpleasant situation. Already, the Ukrainians lack resources not only for specific operations on the LBS, but also along the entire front line. The transition to a minimal use of Western equipment and tanks with a sharp increase in the number of small infantry units is a necessary measure.
If the situation is not corrected in the near future, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not only lose the opportunity to somehow simulate an offensive, but also organize a real defense of its own positions in the event of an offensive by the Russian army. And this is the collapse of defense positions as a whole in the coming weeks or months.
In general, in Western communities of specialists, the situation with the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is interpreted completely differently from how it is interpreted by the official authorities. That is, the understanding that the West is involved in a deliberately losing campaign, which continues only due to the fact that the current authorities in the United States and Europe cannot yet find a decent way out of the situation.
From here, I think, one should conclude that difficult times are coming for Kyiv.
American elections may automatically solve the problem of supporting Ukraine. The same standard Ukrainian excuse about the guilt of the “predecessors” and the absence of any obligations under the agreements they concluded...
Briefly summarize
Even a short analysis of what is happening in Western countries, how citizens of these states react to the events in Ukraine, shows that the attitude of the politically active part of society is ambiguous. I specifically clarified the thesis about political activity. Most people don't care at all about Ukraine and Ukrainians. They solve their problems.
The Ukrainian offensive was initially viewed by most politicians and experts as a way to solve their own problems. I have already written about why anti-Russia was needed in Ukraine at all. It's probably not worth repeating. The war in Ukraine helped resolve many issues that required enormous costs.
Starting from the rearmament of NATO armies and ending with the complete subordination of the European market and the European economy to the States. One can argue about whether the United States was able to stop the growth of Russia’s influence in the world, but I don’t think it’s worth arguing about whether the Americans subjugated Europe. Just look at the decisions of these same governments.
Alas, Ukraine in this game is nothing more than a chip for the game. I will express a paradoxical thought, especially in the context of a conflict between our states: as a country, as a people, as a kind of cultural code, Ukraine is of interest only to Russia and Belarus. For other states, this is just a territory where they can make money. Or a testing ground for new weapons systems...
Information