I am already accustomed to the fact that almost any material that arouses the interest of readers, during its discussion, reveals additional issues that should be written about specifically. This happens quite often. And this is not a matter of any special demands from readers, or even some kind of biased attitude towards my publications.
The fact is that the publication format does not allow you to cover everything at once. And many of the conclusions that I draw are not visible “right here and now.” I have written many times that a lot of information is not subject to disclosure. Any author writing on war topics is forced to be attentive to the information he uses. These are the realities of war.
Today we will talk about why the Ukrainian counteroffensive actually failed. Why did the spring-summer-autumn campaign, which was so carefully prepared by NATO generals and implemented by the Ukrainian Armed Forces generals, turn into a “meat grinder?” In fact, none of the goals of the “counter-offensive” were realized.
Moreover, even today these goals are constantly changing. From “the seizure of Crimea and access to the coast of the Sea of Azov with the subsequent liberation of Kuban” to “the liberation of Tokmak and the creation of conditions for the spring offensive of 2024.” At least some small success for creating a positive image of the president and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
For example, I am amazed by the tenacity of the crests with which they are trying to regain control of Bakhmut. An absolutely stupid thing to do from the point of view of strategic objectives. The senseless destruction of one’s own soldiers without any prospect of developing success even in theory. And the very idea of “covering Bakhmut from the north and south, followed by squeezing out Russian units” looks rather stupid.
The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned into an attempt to “liberate” at least something even when brigades were brought into battle, trained to work in the “operational space”, which were to be brought into battle after the Russian defense was broken through. When the fighting began to resemble trench warfare of the First World War, and not a modern offensive operation... Such a very “sluggish offensive.”
A fictional war as a basis for a real one
It seems to me that the very idea of a widely publicized offensive was initially born in the minds of Kyiv politicians. And only then did it “migrate” to the heads of Washington and Ukrainian generals. It is difficult to believe that such a decision could be made by the military. A person with a military education simply cannot make decisions based on the conclusions made by the PR people of the government and the president.
Remember how the Ukrainians perceive, I think this is the merit of Kyiv propaganda, the withdrawal of Russian units and formations from Kherson and the Kharkov offensive, the withdrawal of our units from near Kiev? You will rarely meet a Ukrainian who agrees, for example, that the Russians left Bucha, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered there days later. Everyone is sure that there were battles there, like a mini-Bakhmut.
Now add the manic faith of crests in Western weapons, in the fact that Soviet, not to mention Russian, is always worse. At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers, for the most part, fight with Soviet weapons or weapons that copy Soviet ones weapon.
I don’t mind at all that Western Leopards, Challengers and Abrams are good for certain conditions Tanks. But remember what happened in the press and on other platforms before their delivery to Ukraine. To be honest, even in Russia many fell for this bait. Remember - “a million for a shot down Leopard”?
As soon as Western tanks appear on the battlefield. Soviet junk, like the T-72, T-80, even the T-90, will burn like candles! Ukrainian tank crews are eager to fight to destroy Russian tank forces! At the same time, few people remembered that the most modern Abrams, for example, were developed in 1975! And Leopard 2 in 1979!
Let's add here an old story from Soviet times about Russian drunkenness, sloppiness and incompetence. It’s enough to simply scare the Russians, and then that’s it. At the first strike, armed with Western tanks, Western artillery systems and other weapons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russians will throw down their weapons, and the summer of 1941 will repeat itself...
Ukrainians will triumphantly enter Donbass and Crimea! And in the summer, the Taras and Mykols will go on vacation en masse to the peninsula... The local population will greet them with songs and dances. And Moscow will agree to pay huge reparations, which will be used by visiting migrant workers to restore Ukraine as a whole. And war-weary Ukrainians will bask on the South Coast...
To be honest, at the beginning of the campaign to idealize Western tanks, I was struck by the reaction of Ukrainian tank crews. Those who already had combat experience and had a perfect understanding of the situation on the LBS. The modern war against Ukrainian fascists is somewhat different from the one waged by the USSR against European fascists.
The advantages of Western weapons are largely far-fetched and exist only when no one interferes with the work of, for example, Western and American satellite guidance systems. When the “all-seeing Abrams” and other tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are confronted by “blind and deaf” enemy tanks. Only then. Under equal combat conditions, Western tanks burn just like everyone else.
Even at the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive, it was clear that there would be no more tank breakthroughs. Yes, tanks were and remain one of the most important elements of combat. But you shouldn’t rely on them as a panacea. The saturation of the PTS defense allows us to say that even one tank attack without preliminary preparation of the enemy’s LBS can be fatal for tank units.
I think that the decision to attack directly head-on was made even without taking into account the opinion of the Ukrainian generals. The Pentagon has repeatedly shown its incompetence in assessing the Russian Armed Forces. This is exactly the case here: the manic belief that Russians supposedly cannot learn from their mistakes...
Analyze the factors that I described above, adding here the delusion of one’s own greatness in military terms, supposedly the Western military school is better than the Russian one, the majority of officers of the Western armies, American strategists are sure of this and decided to attack.
By the way, this also explains the sudden loss of interest in the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine... As I understand it, he was trying to prove that “not all that glitters is gold”; not all victorious reports published in the press or declared by the President of Ukraine should be believed.
The Russians should be horrified and run. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine “on the shoulders of the enemy” will triumphantly enter Crimea and Donbass... It is for this false confidence that tens of thousands of Ukrainian men fell into the ground. Although... And this, as I understand it, is good for Washington and Kyiv. Derussification of Ukraine in action. Considering the fact where most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers were drafted from.
Doomed to fail
Could Ukrainian troops have carried out a successful offensive during the spring-summer campaign?
This question really interests many people both in Russia and Ukraine. Radicals on both sides say they are not happy with the results of the campaign. The APU is crawling a centimeter per day. The Russians stand by and are also not eager to capture populated areas.
Moderates on both sides rejoice in the capture of every house in these same populated areas. Any advance of friendly troops is perceived as a victory, and withdrawal as a tragedy. By the way, it is the moderates who are supported most of all by the media. Remember spring Bakhmut? There wasn't a day when people didn't talk about this city. Try to find a report today that does not talk about the small village of Rabotino.
The direction of the Ukrainian offensive was obvious. Only the southern direction, towards Berdyansk and Melitopol, gives at least some hope for a local victory, for the possibility of blocking the land corridor to Crimea and Russian units in the Kherson direction.
You can, of course, consider an offensive in the north, in the Lugansk region towards Svatovo and Starobelsk, but there the probability of success is generally minimal. The formations that are located on the territory of the border regions can easily stop the Ukrainian Armed Forces and after some time they will push them back. In other directions the situation looks even worse. Even Bakhmut, I wrote about this above, is just PR. No more.
This, to the credit of our staff officers, was well understood by our generals. That is why powerful defensive fortifications were built there. Three lines of defense, equipped according to modern requirements in all respects. Even after Western arms supplies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would hardly have had enough strength to overcome these lines.
I’ll literally go through the outline of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ plan.
The operation continues, but the plan has long been revealed and stopped by our Army.
So, the offensive after the 47th and 65th brigades broke through the defense line in the Rabotino area had to develop in three directions. For this purpose, special mobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were prepared.
Three brigades were to develop an attack on Mikhailovka and Vesele. The task is to reach Melitopol without getting involved in urban battles. Another blow was dealt by a group located in Gulyai-Polye. The task is to wedge into the enemy’s defenses and split the central group into two parts. Thus, this group would cover the attack on Melitopol and, if the offensive developed successfully, would advance to Berdyansk.
Well, the same brigades that drove Russian troops out of Rabotino had to continue moving to the coast and additionally block the land corridor to Crimea. Thus, insuring troops in the Berdyansk direction. That is, it was planned to immediately occupy a large section of the land corridor, thereby depriving the Russians of the opportunity to quickly restore the LBS.
I repeat, the plan, in my opinion, was quite feasible if it were not for the Russian staff officers. They guessed the enemy's plan and took the necessary measures in a timely manner. Thus, the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was doomed to defeat. Even despite the selfless, sometimes simply terrible “meat” attacks of Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian losses were predictable and calculated...
How did Russian generals surprise Western strategists?
Predicting the enemy's actions is a lot, but it is even more important to take retaliatory actions that would “surprise” the enemy.
Let me remind you of the well-known Operation Bagration during the Great Patriotic War. Here is an example of a strategy of genius, a strategy of unexpected action!
I will probably surprise some of our readers, but you and I have recently witnessed a similar situation, which came as a surprise to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Western supervisors of the Ukrainian army.
None of the Ukrainian and Western generals considered Rabotino as a serious line of defense. The small village was supposed to become just another settlement that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would crush with a tank wedge. And there were no serious engineering defensive structures there.
But something unexpected happened.
Rabotino turned into an insurmountable obstacle for the armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Today this village practically does not exist. There are only ruins. But it’s too early to say that someone took it. It is in the gray area. This means that the Ukrainian offensive failed on the night of June 7-8! Russian units foiled the enemy's plan!
Even then, one could begin to say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to reach the first line of defense of the Russians. Even then it became clear that the heroism of Russian soldiers and officers and the unexpected decision of our headquarters buried Western strategy in this operation.
But there is another village that could have become a “funeral agency” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces if Rabotino had not been retained. This is Novoprokopovka! Just two kilometers to the south, but also not yet the first line of defense of the Russians!
The support zone, whose task is simply to mislead the enemy about the real defense and delay the offensive to gain time, became a swamp in which Ukrainian formations got stuck.
But that is not all.
Remember the numerous complaints from the Ukrainian military about Russian mines? The fact that minefields do not allow armored vehicles and more or less serious units to advance? But this is also a surprise. Mines have never been used in such quantities during the entire period of the SVO. More than 50 pieces of mines!
Everything seems to be clear. But let me remind you of the feat of the Alyosha tank.
It became possible simply because even with such a number of mines, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have the ability to move armored vehicles to the LBS. The question just arises: is there an opportunity or are we giving this opportunity? Aren't there too many videos of tanks and other armored vehicles being destroyed by our cannon artillery? This is another “new thing” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
What follows is even more interesting.
Let's look at the nearest rear areas of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Where VKS and Lancets work. Where MLRS missiles fly. It's the same there story. Concentration areas are being actively destroyed by almost daily attacks. And there are not many areas left where reinforcements or units withdrawn for reorganization can be stationed.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to throw reinforcements into battle straight from the wheels. This automatically leads to additional losses. It turns out to be a vicious circle that Ukrainians cannot overcome. Replenishment is necessary, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to somehow resolve this issue.
At the same time, the replenishment does not fulfill the task assigned to it simply because it finds itself in a situation where it is used as cannon fodder. And again the brigades were drained of blood. Replenishment required again. Here's a conveyor.
But if there are no particular problems with manpower, then with armored vehicles and weapons not everything is so simple. There is nothing to make up for the losses of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and armored vehicles. That is why Kyiv is constantly demanding more and more new supplies. Hence another interesting trend of this operation.
We stopped believing everything that Western countries tell us and what Ukrainian representatives sign. The example of the Danube ports is very illustrative. Purely civilian river ports, seemingly not involved in the transportation of military equipment, weapons and ammunition.
But as soon as we launched attacks on these ports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to post numerous videos of soldiers and officers complaining about the lack of equipment and ammunition. This means that another Western supply channel has been blocked.
In general, I want to say that Ukraine is rapidly moving towards failure. And global. One can argue whether the offensive is over or not. If everyone is still attacking our positions, then the offensive seems to be continuing. But…
What forces are they climbing with? A squad, a platoon, or at best a company. Someone will say that such a unit will be able to quickly break through the enemy’s defense? These are nothing more than battles for defensive positions, which do not have much significance even at the tactical level.
Refusal of actions of large units and units means refusal of active actions in general.
This is probably where Washington’s latest statements about Kyiv’s readiness for peace negotiations come from. Hence Zelensky’s threats towards the EU about a possible revolt of Ukrainian refugees.
A drowning man is intensely looking for that very straw that he can grab onto...
The result?
The Ukrainian offensive was initially planned without taking into account the existing, or more precisely, the realities that have changed over the past year. The world created in their own heads and their own victorious war took precedence over reality. Even today, reading reports from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, one is amazed at the number of clearly invented “overcomes.” In the world of big lies there is no place even for small truths. True, even in tiny quantities, it destroys the invented picture in the heads of Ukrainians.
Ukrainian generals did not even take into account such obvious things as the possibility of the Russian army having hidden defensive lines or the emergence of such formidable weapons as, for example, the Lancet. Not to mention the fact that artillery systems and the Russian Aerospace Forces were concentrated precisely in areas of a possible offensive.
Columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, driven into corridors between minefields, were destroyed not only by artillery and Alligators, but also by Lancets, ATGMs, MLRS and others. At the same time, Ukrainian artillery, even with good artillery systems, was losing to Russian systems. The problem of shortage of ammunition has long been the talk of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Those same, again widely advertised, cluster munitions are an attempt to at least somehow replace shells for cannon artillery.
I don’t know how many people have noticed the cunning of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which commanders go to in order to create the appearance of maintaining the combat effectiveness of their army. New brigades, which until recently were intended to develop a counteroffensive in the rear of the Russian army, are being introduced into battle in “pieces,” subunits.
It turns out this way - the brigades are in the concentration areas in full combat readiness. But without several companies or without a couple of battalions... Reinforcements are expected. Beautiful and actually without much lies. But the main thing is that everyone is satisfied with such a report.
Kyiv tried to transfer the war to the category of maneuver. But, thanks to the steadfastness of our soldiers and officers, the attempt failed. Moreover, the war is clearly becoming protracted. Which a priori means Ukraine’s loss.
And there is no way out of this impasse. Only negotiations on Moscow's terms. But Zelensky cannot agree to this. Truly: victory or death. Moreover, the death is not of the Ukrainian president personally, but of tens of thousands of Ukrainian men...