Kakhovskaya HPP: who, what and why?
In fact, at the time of publication, a day will have passed since the moment when the water rushed through the former Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and began flooding the areas below. And right now, not in hot pursuit, but after thinking carefully about what happened, we offer our own version of the vision of the situation.
We do not pretend to be completely objective and reliable, but Comrade Colonel Staver has many years of practical experience in this particular direction: damage to the enemy’s military and not very property by any means. And, starting from his experience, we made this analysis.
What happened?
In principle, everyone has already seen footage of water rushing through the top of the dam. This is a very important fact that it is through the top, by overflow, and not by a stream through open locks. The flooding of the islands, the left bank, partially the right bank began ...
In general, exactly what happens when a dam breaks. All in accordance with the laws of physics. To date, the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station is no more, it was actually washed away. What happens next is a separate issue altogether.
Who is to blame?
Here, of course, opinions are very divided. The parties, as expected, blame each other for the man-made disaster, but let's be objective: no matter what evidence is presented, Russia will be to blame in the eyes of the world community.
In the West, they already believe that only our side benefited from the destruction of the dam.
For example, American defense analyst Michael Clark gave SkyNews this opinion. According to him, the destruction of the dam was much more profitable for the Russians than for Ukraine.
“It is hard to believe that Ukraine was behind the attack on the dam, as it had nothing to gain. It is very hard to believe that Ukraine would have done this. Even if they could, it should be remembered that the explosion took place on the Russian side of the dam. And because of the flooding of the Dnieper, it will be more difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to force it during a future counteroffensive.
While that would be bad for Crimea and the Russians living in Crimea, I certainly think it's Russia rather than Ukraine. Ukraine will gain nothing from this, Russia will gain a lot.”
While that would be bad for Crimea and the Russians living in Crimea, I certainly think it's Russia rather than Ukraine. Ukraine will gain nothing from this, Russia will gain a lot.”
Well, if an American expert said that we would win a lot, then there is no doubt about this. But we still doubt and try to scatter solitaire on the topic "Who benefits."
Russia
Disruption of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in areas below the dam. Very much so-so version. Our troops are on the left, low bank of the Dnieper. And, by the way, when they left Kherson there, it was said more than once that if there was a flood, everything and everyone would be flooded.
Actually, it flooded. What was required to be proved, but here the transformation of the left bank into a swamp and the flooding of all the equipped positions of the Russian army, coupled with the washing out of minefields, is by no means a strong move in planning the conduct of the NWO. Yes, planning is often difficult in our country, but not to the level of organizing man-made disasters.
The fact that the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was stationed on the islands, left, was not an achievement, especially considering that ours were also evacuated.
They could not come up with any more benefits for Russia, no matter how hard they tried.
Ukraine
Everything is much more interesting here. There was a whole list.
1. Shallowing of the Dnieper upstream. In the area of Ugledar. Which makes it easier to force it during an offensive operation. Or counter-offensive, it doesn’t matter, the main thing is that it simplifies the procedure for crossing the riverbed and the dangers associated with it.
2. Departure of water from storage ponds of Zaporozhye NPP. Just a wonderful maneuver to put pressure on Russia from all sides. No one in Europe needs another atomic kettle in discord, they have not forgotten Chernobyl yet. Yes, the station is not in operating mode, not much water is needed for cooling, but if it is not available, it is necessary to stop the units, unload the reactors and unload the fuel assemblies. In general, this is an excellent reason to stir up the IAEA and once again try to send our troops out of the territory of the nuclear power plant under pressure from the world community.
3. Crimea. The fact that Aksenov said that everything is in order is denied in social networks. Crimea has ALREADY swallowed dirty water into the water intake systems, which went through pipes to the apartments of several settlements. It will get worse, further water will be scarce. The prospect is so-so, but in principle it is better to forget about rest in the Crimea for many reasons. But the residents will have to work in terms of providing them with water.
4. The transformation of the left bank, occupied by Russian troops, into a swamp. Yes. This was warned even when there was a regrouping from Kherson. The coast was flooded, the mines were washed away, trenches and dugouts disappeared under water. Now we will have to withdraw troops inland, further from the coast, and how the Ukrainians use it is a question. But over time we will see how they use it somehow.
In general, the alignment is not in favor of the Ukrainians, but these are arguments in favor of the poor. Now the whole world will rush to blame Russia for a man-made disaster, and it will be difficult to prove that we have nothing to do with it. But for us, in the sense of authors and readers, this is not important, we are not in the Foreign Ministry.
We need to understand what really happened. It is clear that we are unlikely to find out all possible information on this complicated case even in 50 years, and many will not live to see this moment. But something we already now can assume.
What did they destroy?
Everything is very interesting here. In general, there were not so many versions as we had to study for a long time. And the main majority passed through the department of REN-TV. The only thing missing was aliens with combat lasers, everything else was there. But we will discard all non-scientific and science fiction, and go through more or less sane versions, although, frankly, they do not stand up to criticism.
1. MLRS. One Internet figure almost saw with his own eyes that the Hymars were flying, another part of the bloggers began to disperse the topic of the Alder.
Yes, we hope that all readers also felt funny. Now, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine had at their disposal German Taurus missiles, with a concrete-piercing warhead, yes, there would be a serious conversation. But how the picking of high-strength concrete of the dam could end with high-explosive fragmentation warheads of "Haymars" or "Alder", which is actually "Smerch", it is not even serious to discuss somehow.
We just invite you to remember history Antonovsky bridge in Kherson. How many Hymars did the Armed Forces spend on him? Only on July 19 last year, two volleys were fired. And what? And nothing. The bridge, which had been tinkered with since February 25, stood still. And both sides hammered at it quite decently for everyone, from art to aviation ammunition. And the bridge was shattered during our retreat, blowing up several spans.
That's where all the Hymars are. Note - this is just a bridge, not a dam, which is designed to contain hundreds of thousands of tons of water, which presses from the heart.
Now someone can say that, they say, if you hit the constipation ... Well, yes. KVO for most Hymars ammunition is 7 meters. Yes, getting into the building is easy. In the shutter - good luck, moreover, without mockery (almost).
In general, we consider the question of the advisability of using MLRS without specialized ammunition to be stupid.
2. Artillery. There are options here, but they are also crooked. Of course, 152-155 mm concrete-piercing shells are more interesting than a rocket. A concrete-piercing projectile is thick-walled, therefore it can enter concrete due to the strength of the hull and only then explode.
The aforementioned "Taurus" has a strong, special case, and the cumulative charge pierces the path of the warhead.
But how many shells do you need to shoot at least one valve? Even if in the dark (and it was at night), even with direct fire, this is not one volley. And what, not a single person heard this cannonade?
And where are any marks from this concert on the buildings? The video is zero. There was no artillery there.
3. DRG. There are two options, one non-sci-fi. Let's start with him. Many Ukrainian media began to talk about the fact that the dam was mined last year and even posted a video of some toothless organism that gave an interview to some blogger, and after the conversation was just about to go and mine the hydroelectric power station. In the engine room.
Well what can I say, the 95 quarter in all its glory.
Here we have a drawing. This is not even a hydroelectric scheme, just to have a concept. Theoretically, it is possible to mine the machine room. And, we admit that this could even be, but ... this is stupidity.
As an expert in this matter, Colonel Staver, said, when designing each dam, such places are specially created where explosives can be placed and the hydroelectric power station can be disabled. Places are calculated and planned, because the dam is a very strong business. In general, water is much more terrible than any explosive, except nuclear. Who does not believe - read the memoirs of the participants in the accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP. Just preferably not at night.
You can blow up a hydroelectric dam. And cause flooding too. It already happened on the Dnieper, when the Dneproges was blown up in 1941.
It was blown up with 20 kg of dynamite. August 000, 18. And already in April 1941, restored by the Germans with the help of Soviet prisoners of war, the Dneproges began to work again.
By the way, in the fall of 1943, the Germans blew up the Dneproges much more significantly. So, it was restored until 1947. And this despite the fact that Soviet intelligence officers were able to neutralize one of the charges by cutting the electrical cables. And it was 3 kg of TNT and 500 bombs of 100 kg each. After the war, more than 500 kg of explosives and bombs were recovered from the ruins of the Dneproges.
This is like an indicator of how much explosive is needed in order to destroy the dam. Yes, the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station is much smaller than the older brother of the Dneproges, but nonetheless. And modern explosives are much more effective than the dynamite and tol used in that war.
Laying in the engine room for such an operation as ours will simply require a huge amount of explosives. Plus keeping everything in a curb state "just in case" is crazy. To do this, the hydroelectric power station would have to guard everything from the same Ukrainian DRGs, who definitely would not fail to take advantage of such a gift as explosives ready for use.
But the explosion of the engine room (so they say on the other side) will not lead to such consequences. It can be seen in the pictures that the engine room was not damaged by the “explosion”, the destruction began with the valves, and then the water swept away everything in its path.
Latches are easier. This is according to Staver's manuals - 300 kg of explosives per one. But even in this situation, to destroy the valves in this way - it looks strange. A ton of explosives is serious. This is a truck, and with it another one, in which a team of sappers, who will carry all this, pack it, connect detonators to a network, and so on.
For the Ukrainian DRG - a feat at the level of "God". That is, it is practically impossible.
For our side, it is easier to mine and blow up the valves.
But why, if the Russian side has full access to the control room, from which you can simply lift the valves and make a flood downstream?
In general, here, in fact, all the accusers of our side were pierced. Why knock out part of the wall if there is a door you can enter through? Moreover, the water level in the system was constantly rising, and if we increased our water discharge, no one would say anything, normal practice. And the fact that they leaked a little more ... happens.
In general, mining and undermining do not seem to us real reasons either.
So what really happened?
Our version is as follows: there was a self-destruction of structures damaged by repeated shelling over the entire past period.
This is indirectly confirmed by the frank panic that began on both banks after the water level began to rise. Nobody expected, neither ours, nor the Ukrainians. Both were saved in the same way.
It was stated that recently the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir has been rising. This could only be done by manipulating other HPPs in the Dnieper cascade, and none of them were under Russian control. Here it is worth remembering the recent flooding of Kyiv, which happened suddenly and for no reason at all. Something was being prepared, that's a fact.
But in our case, everything really could do without sabotage. The Ukrainians began to release water from the upstream dams and the Kakhovka reservoir began to fill up. Masses of water press on the walls of the dam, with an increase in volumes, the pressure also increases.
The New York Times journalist Christian Tribert published Maxar satellite images of the Kakhovka HPP on May 28 and June 5
The footage shows that the dam was leaking water even then. Triebert suggests that the dam was damaged before its destruction today confirms our thoughts.
Why the water was not discharged further is a matter for the competence of those who yesterday were responsible for the operation of the entire Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, if anyone worked there at all.
It was possible to dump water from the reservoir into the sea by opening the floodgates. Moreover, the possibilities for discharging water into the sea were, in fact, not limited by anything, the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station did not generate electricity, the main task of the dam was to fill the North Crimean Canal with water. Why nothing was done is again an unanswered question.
Now, according to satellite images of the mouth of the North Crimean Canal, problems with water are already beginning in Crimea. Aksyonov can assure as much as he likes, but this is physics, she is not familiar with the head of the Crimea. Lowering the level will cause what is already visible in the pictures - the absence of water in the channel.
The Ukrainian side is no better. As a result of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the fields in southern Ukraine may turn into deserts next year, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine predicts. 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% - in Zaporozhye and 30% - in Dnepropetrovsk regions may remain without water.
In principle, we can say that both affected parties are equally guilty of what happened. At least, both Russia and Ukraine have contributed to the creation of the prerequisites. It is clear that the object was damaged as a result of hostilities by one or both (most likely) parties, especially the Ukrainian side succeeded in this, constantly shelling the hydroelectric power station throughout the year, but: someone had to work with such a strategic object, monitor its condition, make repairs.
But in general, the cause of the tragic catastrophe, the results of which will affect more than one region, can really be called a coincidence, when one side systematically damaged the object, and the second did nothing to eliminate the consequences.
If Mr. Saldo did more and wrote less soothing reports about how wonderful everything is in the Kherson region, with which he has already gone down in history, perhaps the result would not have been so tragic.
There is a man-made disaster and it does not matter whose malicious intent or criminal negligence caused them. As always, ordinary civilians on both sides of the Dnieper suffered.
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