Military Review

Volodymyr Dergachev: The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea

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Volodymyr Dergachev: The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian ideaREGNUM publishes, with some reductions, the report by Vladimir Dergachev, a professor at the Odessa National University, at the international conference "Stability in the Black Sea Region: External and Intra-Regional Threats and Ways to Overcome Them" (Simferopol, 15-18 November 2012).

Geopolitics of the Black Sea Region: External and Internal Challenges

After the suicide of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the world socialist system during the period of short market romanticism, the idea of ​​creating the Greater Black Sea Coast — an effective regional economic grouping — dominated. In 1992, the Agreement on the Black Sea Economic Cooperation was signed, on the basis of which, in 1999, the Black Sea states formed the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization (BSEC). However, this idea came into conflict with the logic of global competition and the Eurasian doctrine of the United States. The leading geopolitical players in the Black Sea region are the European Union, the USA, Turkey and Russia. The main goal was to geopolitically reformat the region. Bulgaria and Romania have become members of the European Union and NATO. Georgia was under the special patronage of the United States, which turned the republic into an outpost of America in the Caucasus. The regional economic association GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova), the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development, the TRACECA communication project (the Silk Road through the South Caucasus and the Black Sea) were created. But as time passed, these large-scale projects proved to be ineffective or unsuccessful.

The BSEC organization did not become a full-fledged regional grouping. A paradoxical feature of this regional cooperation is that most countries, ignoring real geography and geopolitics, declare a strategic European or pro-American choice. The competition between them for transit functions dominates over integration projects of subregional cooperation.

As a result of the failure to create a "pink-orange" geopolitical chastity belt on the borders of Eurasian civilizations, another defeat occurred in the Eurasian geopolitics of the United States. The artificially created interstate political and economic association GUAM virtually ceased its activities. This American project, which has no economic feasibility, was supposed to fulfill the geopolitical anti-Russian role in deepening the split of the post-Soviet space and its reformatting in the interests of the West. An attempt to reanimate the project by creating a regional Organization for Democracy and Economic Development also failed. The regimes created as a result of "color" revolutions by American political consultants in Ukraine and Georgia were defeated. Participation in the GUAM anti-Russian geopolitical entity did not bring Kiev political capital and economic benefits. Foreign trade turnover with the countries of this group did not exceed 2%.

The widely publicized project of the European Union of the Euro-Asian International Transport Corridor (TRACECA) from Western and Northern Europe through the Black Sea to the South Caucasus and Central Asia to China did not meet the rainbow expectations. The absence of promising mass freight traffic indicates the limited possibilities of this option for the revival of the Great Silk Road. In connection with the creation of the Customs Union, the importance of transit from the APR to the European Union through the territory of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, forming a single customs space, has increased. Whereas along the TRACECA route, many customs and other border barriers remain ...

Due to political instability, the Black Sea region remains unattractive for foreign investments. As a result, not only the global financial, but the systemic crisis of the neoliberal model, the Black Sea region found itself on the global periphery. Why?

One of the mistakes characteristic of the relatively young from the standpoint of the historical time of the Western political economy system was the ignoring of world geopolitical cycles. The well-known geopolitical model of Kondratieff-Wallerstein was created for the capitalist system, which has several centuries, and does not take into account the probability of changing large geopolitical cycles. The global systemic crisis of the neoliberal model of globalization coincided with the change of the world geopolitical cycle East - West - East. According to the author’s geopolitical theory of Large multidimensional spaces, the following geopolitical cycles are distinguished: short-term 40-year cycles, medium-term 100-year cycles, long-term 500-year cycles of a cardinal change of world geopolitical architecture and world (global, transcontinental) communications.

There is a cardinal change in the global geopolitical architecture of the world. A new 500-year geopolitical cycle begins, leading to a change in the general direction of East - West - East, and the corresponding transformation of world (transcontinental) communications and world poles of economic and technological development. Currently, Eurasia enters a new geopolitical (communication) cycle, when the South Seas receive priority over the transcontinental routes between the West and East of Eurasia. Third time in Eurasian stories with an interval of five centuries comes the Great Hour of the South Seas - the Great Sea Route between the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region and Europe. As the history of the Eurasian continent shows, when the sea route begins to revive, the Silk Road dies out. Hopes for the revival of this world communication due to the lack of competitive container shipping turned out to be exaggerated.

The great powers after the collapse of the USSR began the battle for the Great geopolitical space. Western European states forced the process of expansion to the East of the European Union, where Romania and Bulgaria were taken from the Black Sea states. Implementing the Eurasian doctrine, the United States announced the creation of the geopolitical project of the Greater Middle East, which included the former Soviet Caucasian republics (Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia). And in order to prevent the excessive “fraternization” of Germany and Russia, they began to pursue a consistent policy on the creation of the Black Sea-Baltic corridor based on Poland and Romania. In order to prevent the strengthening of Russia's power through integration with Ukraine, special attention was paid to the organization of the Orange Revolution, and the separatist provincial nationalists were declared petrel democracy. With great delay after the geopolitical suicide of the USSR, a democratic Russia is waking up with the intentions of creating a Eurasian economic space (Eurasian Union). Successfully modernizing Turkey also does not wish to limit itself to the Black Sea economic cooperation, especially since it has become a model of imitation and attraction for the Turkic states and republics in the post-Soviet space. Given this quality of a significant part of the Ukrainian political elite as venality, with the deterioration of the economic position of the independent state, transformation of the so-called strategic partnership of Kiev with Beijing to the creation of a Chinese protectorate in the Black Sea region is not excluded.

The United States did not refuse and will not abandon the implementation of the geopolitical Eurasian doctrine, called the "democratic loop of Anaconda". If in the era of confrontation between the two superpowers, this “loop” of containment of the Soviet bloc covered the coastal zone of Eurasia, then at the turn of the century it shifted to the frontiers (shores) of Eurasian civilizations from Poland through the Black Sea and South Caucasus, Central Asia and Mongolia, that is, from Baltic to Pacific the ocean. The military bases of NATO in the Baltic countries, Poland, Southeast Europe (Romania and Bulgaria), the American presence in the South Caucasus (Georgia) and Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) became a reality. For the influence in Mongolia, there is a fierce struggle between the United States and China with a weakening Russian presence.

Due to the fact that the forecasts of American analysts regarding Beijing were not justified, and China may be ahead of the US in economic power much earlier (by 2016), Washington focuses on Eurasian geopolitics on the creation of a sanitary cordon in the Asia-Pacific region. Accepted Pacific military doctrine aimed at deterring the Middle Kingdom in the region. The US military bases in the APR will be strengthened by the redeployment of a large part of the American troops from Afghanistan. Reformatting in foreign policy weakens, but does not cancel, the US military presence in the Black Sea region.

In the implementation of its Eurasian doctrine, the United States is counting on the help of an ally in the NATO region - Turkey, which unsuccessfully tried to integrate into the European Union. Washington consistently pursues the policy of the "democratic loop of Anaconda" to create a buffer zone between Western Europe and Russia. American geopolitics George Friedman offers Turkey an alternative to European integration - to head the buffer zone between the Baltic and Black Sea (Intermarium), in which America actively takes care of Poland and Romania.

However, Turkey has other geopolitical plans. Ankara implements a liberal multi-partner version of the neo-Eurasian doctrine with elements of the “third way”, effectively cooperating with the West and the East, in contrast to the multi-vector Russian policy of constant concessions. This course has intensified the struggle of local Westerners and Eurasians. In 2010, a historic referendum was held in Turkey, in which the ruling Justice and Development Party received a “vote of confidence” regarding further democratization and limiting the role of the army, which was the guarantor of Kemistism. Turkey is not only being reborn as a regional power, but has also been able to offer its model of integration in a multipolar world. In contrast to the primitive and failed national Russian idea of ​​"doubling the GDP," the foundation of Turkish modernization was the combination of high technology and high moral character. Turkey effectively uses the Eurasian geopolitical position of the country at the historical crossroads of trade routes. But most importantly, the multi-partner geopolitics of Turkey is dominated by a sense of national dignity and there is no blind servility of power before the West. Turkey has an active foreign policy in the South Caucasus, where its main ally is Azerbaijan. The construction of the Kars (Turkey) -Tbilisi-Baku railway will strengthen Turkey’s presence in the Caucasus. Turkish business is widely represented in Georgian Adjara (Batumi).

Geopolitics do not tolerate emptiness, and in the post-Soviet space in Azerbaijan, Ajaria and Gagauzia, the influence of Turkey has increased, in Moldova - Romania, in Georgia - the United States. In the Russian Far East, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan - China, in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan - Iran and Turkey. Despite this, Russia remains the main geopolitical player in the post-Soviet space of the CIS, is the main or major trading partner for most of the newly independent states. Providing work for millions of migrant workers, Russia relieves social tensions in neighboring countries.

In recent years, Russia's activity in the Black Sea region has increased, due to the energy factor (the Blue Stream project under the Black Sea bypassing Ukraine) and preparations for the Olympic Games in Sochi. Russia is interested that the military threat does not emanate from its southern borders in the Black Sea and in the Caucasus. Despite the loss of economic power, Russia remains the second nuclear power. The Moscow Kremlin is not trying to recreate the Russian empire, because it does not want to take responsibility for the new independent states, but seeks to prevent their military-political alliance with the West (NATO) and offers an Eurasian integration model like the European Union. But in order to preserve the status of a great power, Russia often allows itself to be used as a "cash cow."

In connection with the voiced project of the Eurasian Union, Western pressure on Belarus and Kazakhstan intensified in order to prevent the integration of the post-Soviet space. For Belarus as a carrot, it is proposed to discuss with the help of pro-Western NGOs the mythical integration of Belarus into the European Union, taking into account the failed experience of Ukraine. Here, mediators are mainly Poland and Lithuania. This issue was discussed at the international conference “Belarus at the Crossroads of Integration: Relations with the EU in the Situation of Forming the Eurasian Union” (Minsk, November, 2012). In the future, it is proposed to implement the idea of ​​“integration of integrations” of a non-existent Eurasian Union with the European Union. Nor can we ignore the revitalization of the role of successfully modernized Turkey in the post-Soviet space, especially in relations with Kazakhstan.

Ukraine remains a state with "incompetent sovereignty." George Friedman, after visiting Kiev, came to the following conclusion that Ukraine is an independent state, but does not know "what to do with this independence." He noticed the well-known peculiarities of the mentality of the Ukrainian elite, who are concerned about the problem “to lie down” - under the European Union, Russia or the USA.

The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea. Therefore, permanent Russian-Ukrainian conflicts will continue in the foreseeable future, until a single Ukrainian nation takes place instead of a split Western and Eastern Ukraine. Unlike Russia, the Ukrainian oligarchs have a huge influence on the government and use it to solve their corporate problems. Independent Ukraine has yet to overcome the "younger brother" syndrome, which is used to rely on the preferences of the "older brother", regardless of their behavior.

The problems of joining the EU Free Trade Zone and the CIS Customs Union do not have a purely economic solution for Ukraine. The choice does not depend on the political will of the authorities, but on the desire of the Ukrainian oligarchs to obtain legitimacy in the West for capital and assets that are taken offshore. Recently, against the background of the permanent deterioration of business relations with Russia, Ukraine began to force the Chinese geo-economic vector, which could lead to the creation of a Chinese protectorate in Eastern Europe. Taking into account China’s policy regarding the repurchase of debt securities of some EU countries, Beijing is becoming a new geopolitical player on the European continent.

Russia for two centuries has spent enormous material and financial resources and created a powerful infrastructure for the communication "south window" to Europe and other parts of the world. Strengthening the position of NATO in the Black Sea, the unilateral adoption by Turkey of restrictions on the shipping regime in the Straits, has caused significant damage to the interests of Russia. A new communication axis St. Petersburg - Moscow - Voronezh - Rostov-on-Don - Novorossiysk is being formed. Creating a new route "from the Varangians to the Greeks" will further narrow the hinterland of the Ukrainian ports and increase the intensity of the regions of Eastern Ukraine to this highway. The future of Russian-Ukrainian relations will depend on the ability to use the creative frontier energy of the multidimensional communication Eurasian space in order to achieve a geopolitical balance between East and West, North and South, with Russia's dominant role.

For geopolitics "Big Pipe" Ukraine is seen from the Kremlin as a transit state, and not the largest outside the space of the Russian language and culture. If the Kremlin loses the final battle for Eastern Europe and the integrity of the Orthodox civilization, it will be possible to put an end to the revival of a great power.

Romania claims to be the regional power in Southeast Europe. For the first time in the last century, the country was freed from the threat of rejection of the Black Sea Dobrudja, through which the strategic land corridor of the Russian / Soviet empire to Istanbul passed. Romanians, proud of the Roman roots of the name of the state and language, feel themselves part of Western Europe. While in the socialist camp, the Romanian leadership often distanced itself from Soviet politics and was oriented toward the West. Thanks to Western loans, Communist Romania implemented a grandiose project to build the Chernovody-Constanta canal. The communist leadership paid off foreign debt, but undermined the living standards of the Romanians. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in Romania, a bloody anti-communist revolution was carried out, the “genius of the Carpathians” - President Ceausescu was executed, and the special services (securitized) became an integral part of the “democratization” of the country. The European Union and NATO were chosen by the new government as a reliable "roof" to preserve sovereignty. But as time has shown, the "roof" was full of holes.

The nationalist party "Great Romania" is in favor of territorial claims to Ukraine, for the revision of state borders and reunification of southern Bessarabia and northern Bukovina with Romania and the creation of Great Romania within the boundaries of 1940. The party was represented in the Romanian parliament, but in the 2008 elections, it did not overcome the five percent barrier. The doctrine of "Great Romania" was made possible by the provincial nationalists of Ukraine and Moldova, who considered the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact criminal. Creating Great Romania on the basis of reunification with Moldova will always find supporters among the country's political elite (Obviously, "reunification" means the re-occupation of Bessarabia and Bukovina by Romania, by analogy with the occupation in 1918 - 1940 and 1941-1944. Formation of the Romanian state and Romanian as Nation took place on a part of the territory of modern Romania - in Wallachia and Moldavia - in the second half of the XIX century, when Bessarabia was already part of the Russian Empire, and Bukovina - as part of Austria-Hungary - a comment from REGNUM). Opponents of the Romanian nationalists consider the Romanian identity to be secondary to the Moldovan one. Moldova was a prosperous Soviet republic. Therefore, here, unlike in CEE countries, nostalgia for the Soviet past has been preserved.

In Romania, mainly in Transylvania, there are 1,5 million Hungarians who are fighting for autonomy. A prominent role in the political space of Romania is played by the Democratic Union of Hungarians of Romania, which has a representative office in the European Parliament. In 2011, in Hungary, the law came into force providing not only second Hungarian citizenship, but also the right to vote for members of the diaspora. A similar law aimed at the “reunification of the nation” at the expense of Moldova and Southern Bessarabia exists in Romania. Therefore, forcing the creation of the “Great Romania” by the Romanian nationalists could lead to the loss of Transylvania.

The United States assigns Romania an important role in creating the anti-Russian axis Warsaw-Bucharest. Moreover, in the new history, attempts have already been made to construct it (the Polish concept of Third Europe, the projects of the Central European Union and the creation of a "Central European Federation of People's Democracy". Washington recommends Romania to cooperate more actively with members of the Visegrad Four (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia), lobbying their interests in the Black Sea region - an important corridor for the transportation of energy resources.

"Dizzy with success" led to the hasty expansion of the European Union to the East. In violation of the rules, new countries were adopted, whose macroeconomic indicators do not correspond to the average European level. In addition, the modernization process of the Mediterranean countries adopted in the EU (Portugal, Spain and Greece) has not been completed. As a result, the European Union was divided into donor countries led by Germany and peripheral depressed countries. In the face of the outbreak of the eurozone crisis, Brussels limited its ability to support peripheral countries. The European Union does not have military-political power, and the United States absolutely dominates NATO. Therefore, although the military bloc ceased to be a defensive alliance, the CEE countries are forced to maneuver between the orientation towards Brussels and Washington.

In the CEE countries, before the eurozone crisis, dependent "Eurooptimism" remained, with pro-American sentiments falling. George Friedman believes that the CEE countries must overcome the naive fantasy that the infant European Union "represents a millennial transformation of Europe into the peaceful Kingdom of Heaven." The eurozone crisis has clearly shown that this is not the case. "

In Eastern Europe, the regional indicator of the processes of geopolitical and geo-economic transformation is the historical region of New Russia (with the Crimea) or the Ukrainian Black Sea region. Here is concentrated the largest array of Russian and other non-titular peoples for Ukraine abroad. This is a socio-cultural region with a deep historical memory formed in the geopolitical space of the Russian Empire. New Russia has become the most successful example of creating a multi-ethnic society in a European way with elements of personal and economic freedom. Unlike the Ukrainians of Galicia, the former colonial outskirts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, in the mentality of the inhabitants of the Black Sea region internationalism has always dominated the ideas of nationalism.

New Russia is the most successful example of European regional integration in the Russian Empire related to the personalities of statesmen for whom the interests of the fatherland were higher than personal ones. European liberalism, polyethnicity and traditions of economic freedom provided not only the standard of living, but also its high quality. As a result, during the Civil War, New Russia was mainly on the side of the whites, and the well-to-do peasantry fell under the banner of Makhno. Therefore, the Soviet government punished Novorossia with repressions, especially in the Crimea and Odessa, and the name of the region was taken out of use. Nowadays this policy is continued by the Ukrainian authorities.

This region in traditional geopolitics serves as the most important geopolitical hub of not only Eastern Europe and the Black Sea, but also of Eurasia, along with the Balkans and Afghanistan. The Ukrainian Black Sea Coast plays an extremely important role in the formation of the geopolitical code of Ukraine.

The unfavorable transformation of the Ukrainian Black Sea region is caused not only by permanent political crises in the country, but also by geopolitical factors. The unrecognized Transnistrian republic is a factor of instability, turned Odessa into the main criminal gates of Tiraspol to world markets (Replicated mainly by Moldovan media, information about the existence of large-scale smuggling, including weapons, from Transnistria, was officially refuted by the European Union’s Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine (EUBAM), which began its work on November 9, 30, as a result of a joint appeal by Presidents of Moldova and Ukraine, Vladimir Voronin and Viktor Yushchenko. The basis for the implementation of EUBAM activity was, in particular, the accusations of the Moldovan side of large-scale smuggling and illegal export of arms from Transnistria. In the course of its work, the mission did not find evidence of these allegations. 2005 July 27, the head of EUBAM, Udo Burkholder, stated that the European Union’s border assistance mission for Moldova and Ukraine had never considered Transnistria a “black hole”, and this is also confirmed by the OSCE and the European Commission - approx. IA REGNUM). A consistent policy in Ukrainian-Russian relations on the problems of the Sea of ​​Azov and the Kerch Strait is required. As the events of 2010 showed, the lack of an agreed legal status of the Sea of ​​Azov and the strait can lead to interstate conflict. But the biggest problem remains the geopolitical transformation of a socio-cultural historical region with a multi-million Russian population, a landmark Russian-Ukrainian culture and the dominance of the Russian language. The problem of other non-titular nations is becoming aggravated; they do not want to identify their future with the poor state of a criminally corrupt democracy. This uncertainty adversely affects the investment climate in the Ukrainian Black Sea region.

After the fall of the Iron Curtain, the geo-economic situation in the Black Sea region changed. After a two hundred year period, the region “returned” to the northern periphery of the Mediterranean space, where its economy turned out to be uncompetitive, and the historical functions of transit trade were lost. It should be noted that the long Slavic road to the Black Sea was replaced by the disintegration of the historical communication space on the western borders of the Great Eurasian Steppe.

In the South Caucasus, Georgia serves as the main outpost of the United States in the ideological and geopolitical confrontation with Russia. In the past, Orthodoxy influenced Georgia’s geopolitical choice. But in order to restore the role of the Georgian church, it is necessary to dominate the community of truly religious citizens. Georgia under Stalin was an exemplary Soviet republic, living mainly on subsidies to Moscow. A myth about a special Georgian mentality was created. The myth of "united and indivisible" Georgia dominates among local radical nationalists. The Georgian political elite is predominantly anti-Russian and is not going to refuse militarily from dependence on the United States and joining NATO. Georgia lost after the next Georgian blitzkrieg of the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The leading industry of the Georgian economy is the food industry. Agriculture employs half of the working population. Agricultural land has been transferred to private ownership and is being actively bought up by the Chinese, Azerbaijanis and Armenians. Local entrepreneurs are interested in restoring economic relations with Russia. The Georgian economy, especially agriculture, cannot effectively exist without the Russian market. Agricultural products of Georgia, located on the northern periphery of the Greater Middle East being created by the Americans, are absolutely uncompetitive here. In Soviet times, Georgia was visited by up to 5 million tourists. In 2006, for the first time in the years of independence, the total 976 is thousand. Therefore, the restoration of economic ties with Russia is possible if the creation of a NATO springboard on the territory of Georgia is abandoned. At the same time, the participation of Orthodox Georgia in the Eurasian Union, which so far exists as an intention, is unreal. Only after the effective work of the Customs Union will it be possible to discuss the deeper economic stage of integration of the Eurasian space.

The United States has implemented a large-scale project in Georgia to modernize the legal system and law enforcement agencies in Georgia. Against this background, the reform of law enforcement agencies in Russia looks like a parody of the Georgian law enforcement system, although it has not eliminated, other than corruption, other local problems.

Due to emigration, the number of ethnic Georgians is drastically reduced and the proportion of Muslims is increasing. More than 2 million Georgians live in Russia. There are 60 thousand Russian, and hundreds of thousands left for Russia. Of the 100 thousand of Greeks, there are 10 thousand left. The Azerbaijani and Armenian minorities account for over 15% of the total population of Georgia (without Abkhazia and South Ossetia). In the regions of their compact residence (Javakheti and Kartli), the intensity of inter-ethnic relations is noted. Minorities do not speak the state language, their participation in the public life of the country is limited, all important local positions are occupied by ethnic Georgians. The process of migration of minorities to Armenia and Azerbaijan is underway.

Azerbaijan was considered as the main energy ally of the European Union in the Caucasus. The foreign policy of the United States is aimed at preventing close economic ties between Azerbaijan and Iran, where there is a large Azerbaijani diaspora. But despite this, in the near future a railway from Iran to Azerbaijan will be put into operation - as part of the international North-South transport corridor from Russia to Iran.

In Armenia, there is a confrontation between the pro-Russian and pro-American vector of foreign policy. Especially in the 90-s, an important role in this process belonged to the Armenian diaspora in America.

Findings. Recently, the Black Sea region is gradually turning into a peripheral zone of world politics. The organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation did not become a full-fledged regional grouping. Exaggerated was her role in ensuring regional security. The difficulties of regional economic integration are due to the geopolitical situation at the frontiers of Eurasian civilizations.

In the foreseeable future, the geopolitical situation in the Black Sea region will be characterized by the clash of the geostrategic interests of NATO, the EU, Russia and Turkey, and the real political and economic possibilities of controlling the transportation of energy resources. Attempts by the United States to oust Russia from the Black Sea region by strengthening Ukraine’s role and turning it into a regional power were unsuccessful. However, Russia's lack of a consistent and firm Black Sea policy can lead to a loss of geopolitical positions in the region.

As a result of the global systemic crisis, the influence of the European Union and the United States in the Black Sea region has weakened, with increased activity of Russia and Turkey. Events in Syria have become a test for Russian-Turkish relations. Syria was the main Soviet ally in the Middle East, and Turkey was a stronghold of NATO in the region. Therefore, time is required for geopolitical reformatting. In the Black Sea region, Russia and Turkey, who have centuries of historical experience in solving regional problems and their presence in the Caucasus, should be the guarantors of security in the first place. It is necessary to strengthen the interaction of Russia and Turkey in solving the problems of the South Caucasus. Turkey’s main ally in the South Caucasus is Azerbaijan, which traditionally conducts a moderately friendly policy towards Russia (apparently, by analogy with the “moderately friendly policy” of Moldova or the same Ukraine regarding the Russian Federation - REGNUM press comment). For Moscow, Armenia remains the main ally in the South Caucasus.

Ukraine and Georgia do not have an independent regional policy, they serve as pawns in a foreign geopolitical game. Bulgaria and Romania not only joined NATO, but also provided their territories for the deployment of American troops and missile defense facilities.

The unfavorable geopolitical and geo-economic transformation of the historical region of Novorossia (the Ukrainian Black Sea region) ended with the loss of sea power and general communications, including transit functions, the possibility of creating a resort of international importance in the Crimea. The investment attractiveness of the region has several limitations. From the north - permanent political instability of the Kiev authorities, from the west - an unsolved problem of Transdniestria, from the east - a restless Crimea with the problem of the basing of the Russian Navy. Only in the south did the Serpentine problem be solved due to substantial losses of the continental shelf (“The solution to the problem” was the loss of Ukraine’s 2009 in February to the UN International Court (to which it voluntarily agreed) of a border dispute with Romania. As a result, Romania received an 80% of the disputed territory around O. Snake. Potentially significant reserves of gas and oil, which are currently being investigated for the profitability of their production, are found on the shelf of Romania by Ukraine, for example, a REGNUM news agency.

Crimea occupies a special place in the geopolitical transformation of the Black Sea region and in the near future will become a testing ground for Ukrainian statehood. Over its long history, Crimea has never been associated with a weak nationalist state for a long time. Against the background of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, Crimea may be lost forever for Kiev and Moscow.

The loss of transit functions in the geopolitical code of Ukraine of maritime frontiers may exacerbate the problem of Crimea. This geopolitical "island" is weakly connected with the communication space of Ukraine. The formation of a transport corridor from Western Europe in the direction of Berlin - Lviv - Kerch with the creation of a stationary passage through the Kerch Strait and further to the Caucasus and the Middle East can actually enhance the communication functions of the Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea coast, especially the Crimea and Novorossiysk. Therefore, the Ukrainian government should support Tbilisi’s proposal to resume movement by rail and road along the Black Sea coast through Abkhazia. The restoration of this transport corridor will lead to reformatting in regional geopolitics in the South Caucasus. But expanding opportunities for economic ties is beneficial for all countries in the region. As the Eastern wisdom says "when there is trade, the guns are silent."

The emerging geopolitical architecture will become safer if it is formed on the principles of regional bipolarity. The bipolar world is more stable than a unipolar world, not only on a global scale, but also at the regional level. The most acceptable is the geopolitical architecture of Eurasia, emanating from the triad - Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Turan, which takes into account the characteristics of Western Christian, Orthodox and Muslim (Turkic) civilizations. The foundation of such an architecture of the world order can be the geopolitical axis Berlin-Moscow-Ankara. Such a geopolitical configuration based on an inter-civilization dialogue will be an important guarantor of peace in Eurasia and the Black Sea.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.regnum.ru
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  1. ironman
    ironman 5 December 2012 15: 31
    +23
    "The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea "

    Well, where is the topic revealed ????
    The title of the article should be changed to "Geopolitics in the Black Sea Region". About what the author wrote.
    1. webdog
      webdog 5 December 2012 16: 44
      +5
      I’m sorry that I’m not talking about the topic, but here’s an interesting analytical article ...
      in my opinion brilliantly revealed. briefly and to the point.
      called - Know-how of President Putin infuriates the United States

      http://warfiles.ru/show-19098-nou-hau-prezidenta-putina-besit-ssha.html
      1. Joker
        Joker 5 December 2012 18: 30
        +3
        If the Kremlin loses the final battle for Eastern Europe and the integrity of the Orthodox civilization, it will be possible to put an end to the revival of a great power.

        And I was more outraged by this phrase. It seems that the world has come together in Ukraine, we have only a third of the populated territories in the country and it’s not a lot, if we create a government program to support families, make housing affordable for them, then we can increase the population, like the golden billion. If there is a billion Russian in our country, we will not need any allies for nothing, and I think that we should strive for this with all our might, the allies come and go, but we stay, it’s better not to give handouts, and to build houses with this money and give them away for free large families will not kill the state with this. And the fact that there Ukraine is the second largest country with Russian-speaking residents, so what's from that? If they continue to go in the direction of the West, then the number of Russian speakers in 30 will decrease, there will be some great Ukrainians laughing or whatever they have called for a new story lol all Russians from abroad need to be transported home, helping financially with relocations, in the same America many would leave back, but they are afraid of difficulties when relocating and finding a job, from Ukraine we can also take out all of our closest CIS countries and let them around they cook their shit, strengthen the borders, make the entry on visas, no labor migrants and refugees, all who illegally cross the border to shoot on the spot. That's all, we will strengthen ourselves, increase human potential, develop the economy, and let the others do what they want. Maintain a purely trading relationship and all. And if someone wants to make a military alliance, then please, in case of anything, we will help, but not financially. It’s time to send everybody into three letters with their begging and tossing from one to another.
      2. nickname 1 and 2
        nickname 1 and 2 5 December 2012 20: 19
        +2
        webdog,

        Thank you for the link! There are a lot of letters! And there briefly and
        **** However, Russian money today provides an opportunity to develop the country and at the same time receive the loyalty of partners. No one has succeeded in this yet. Maybe for the first time we are dealing with the fact that Russia is beginning to surpass the USSR in some way, and the Russian chief manager turned out to be extremely constructive and effective. Then no one can disagree *****
        Sensibly. Lubo!
  2. NAV-STAR
    NAV-STAR 5 December 2012 15: 34
    +9
    The united people must build their homeland together, we can all - our history proves this.
    1. Mr. Truth
      Mr. Truth 5 December 2012 16: 23
      +4
      Alien agents only need to be thrown out.
    2. Ross
      Ross 5 December 2012 18: 21
      +3
      Quote: NAV-STAR
      http://warfiles.ru/show-19098-nou-hau-prezidenta-putina-besit-ssha.html


      Unfortunately, history also shows the endless throwing of the Ukrainian elite: from the hetman Khmelnitsky to today's leaders

      ... well-known peculiarities of the mentality of the Ukrainian elite, concerned with the problem of whom to "lie" under - the European Union, Russia or the USA.
    3. ZAVET
      ZAVET 6 December 2012 11: 03
      0
      The compilation of the GENETIC MAP OF THE RUSSIAN HUMAN in 2009 confirmed that the inhabitants of eastern Ukraine are RUSSIAN (complete coincidence).
      But Lviv Ukrainians are Mongoloids (actually Tatars).
      This explains the dissimilarity of interests of residents of western and eastern Ukraine. Anti-Russian politics in Ukraine will always have its roots in the western regions. It is genetically determined.
  3. valokordin
    valokordin 5 December 2012 15: 36
    +7
    I would say that the article on anti-Russianism is not enough, but one thing is clear, until the country stands on its feet, until the theft in the highest echelons of power ceases, few will seek an alliance with Russia. Basically the same thieves.
  4. Igarr
    Igarr 5 December 2012 15: 47
    +2
    I understood so that the author developed "..the theory of large multidimensional spaces .."
    I understood that this theory ... allows you to write ... many books.
    If even Vladimir Dergachev was paid - like Mark Twain - word for word .... then he would obviously have stopped writing.
    I would be engaged in another.
    And not a question of "The historical nature of Ukrainian independence .."
    Minus.
    1. Cadet787
      Cadet787 5 December 2012 20: 26
      +1
      The topic in the article is not disclosed. Minus.
    2. Machaon
      Machaon 5 December 2012 20: 43
      +1
      Igarr,
      I absolutely agree. Complete lack of mastery of the language. Smeared semolina on a plate. Such footcloths need to be reduced.
  5. petro
    petro 5 December 2012 15: 52
    -22
    This is a very abstruse article, and some strange gravitations are described. And everything is much simpler - there will always be a "gravitation" there - where is better, where is the best life, and not mythical "greatness". And this applies not only to Ukraine. account "the nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea", then some just need to come to terms with the existence of Ukraine as an independent state and there will be no "anti-Russian idea." And so everything is according to the laws of physics - if you put pressure on something, the answer will also be pressure. In the sense, there will be no anti-Ukrainian, there will be no anti-Russian. Where is the primary-anti-Ukrainian.
    1. anchonsha
      anchonsha 5 December 2012 17: 40
      +4
      Dear friend, who needs you? What pressure on you and Ukraine from Russia. And Ukraine does not need Russia to subsidize it, tearing it away from itself. They subsidized gas at domestic prices for more than 5 years (which is billions of rubles) under Kuchma. And what Russia got from Ukraine? Only Ukraine’s desire to join NATO and Yushchenko’s famine, spitting on Russia. Russia simply wants to live in good neighborliness with you so that you respect your neutrality. But Ukraine is spinning its tail, and not vice versa, that is, sitting on two chairs is to live about Old Europe in comfort, but on Russian gas for the price that you specify. So Putin began to behave commercially, just like Ukraine.
      1. Rink
        Rink 5 December 2012 19: 41
        0
        Quote: anchonsha
        ... And what Russia got from Ukraine? Only the desire of Ukraine to join NATO ....

        According to numerous polls, Ukrainians are against NATO membership. The figures were different, but less than 55% seemed to be "against", and more often it sounded that "against" 70-75%. Only who takes into account the opinion of the people ?!

        NATO is not striving for Ukraine, but a bunch of puppet politicians on the Ukrainian "throne": the American lining of Yushchenko (the son of a policeman), and a bunch of sent ones like the former Minister of Justice of Ukraine Zvarych - a former CIA personnel officer (if they happen to be "former") diaspora. Here they are, carrying out the task of the masters who placed them in power, and pulling the whole country under the United States.
        Now, of course, Yusch is out of work, but a lot of seams seeped by him are still in place.
        1. petro
          petro 5 December 2012 22: 34
          -1
          I will not pay for the polls, who orders these polls, pays for them - whoever needs the result, they will draw. And at the expense of Ukraine in NATO, what is bad for Ukraine, there are some advantages, ranging from guarantees of security, territorial integrity, to savings budget funds for the army. And such a country close to Russia, like Bulgaria, joined NATO, despite the promises from Russia and does not regret. That it is not beneficial for Russia, it is understandable - to deal with Ukraine alone or with NATO different things ... So it is necessary to differentiate that it is beneficial for Ukraine to join the bloc, but it is not beneficial for Russia. And the fact that there is a "fifth column" in Ukraine, which retains the interests not of national ones, but of another state, is also a fact. there are quite a few on this forum - for whom the interests of the country where they live are not in the first place, but the other. But every year there are fewer and fewer of them, and there is a hope that they will die out altogether.
      2. petro
        petro 5 December 2012 22: 18
        -1
        And how I "need" you, only some dirty tricks from you. And this "masterpiece" - "Russia just wants to live in good neighborly way", with whom you live good neighborly. I'll start from the north in order - Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus, at times, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia,
        Azerbaijan, a company has now begun against Kazakhstan. That is, bad neighbors got, or maybe everything is easier - one neighbor is not normal.
        1. Rink
          Rink 5 December 2012 23: 37
          +2
          Quote: petro
          .... who you live with in a good neighborly manner. First, from the north, in order - Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Belorussia

          from time to time, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia,

          Azerbaijan, the company has now begun against Kazakhstan. ....

          You know how to put everything upside down so easily! One sentence - raz! - and spit!
          And if you look closely?
          1. What, Russia attacked Georgia? The whole West, unfriendly to Russia, admits that the aggressor was Ssukashvili, who was invaded by the United States.
          2. Moldova is a Romanian colony whose policies are fully adjusted from NATO. And who heads the NATO - you know?
          3. Belarus You entered here in vain, obviously for the quantity. There certainly have their own swamps, but doesn’t you say anything that Belarus has even switched to the Russian currency?
          4.Latvia-Lithuania -Estonia - NATO pocket pugs with the SS grandchildren in the leadership: the US feeds them only because they bark. Stop barking - who will need them ?! However, Estonia has already overstrained its army to contain http://3mv.ru/publ/ehstonija_vynuzhdena_rezko_sokratit_raskhody_na_svoi_vooruzhe
          nnye_sily / 3-1-0-13249
          ... Yes, and Lithuania and Latvia are in a deep economic crisis. These proud Balts in the Union lived on subsidies. and having separated, they moved on to the content of the West - as they themselves were beggars in the 19th century, they will return to poverty. Their current owners now have their own problems, so the rhetoric from the "little stinkers" has obviously subsided.
          5. Poland ... This is a long history, a traditional competitor. As many Russophobes as Poland - probably no other country in the world has given. Russophobia in Poland has been fostered for a long time, simultaneously with the adoption of Catholicism. Popes encouraged Polish knights to crusade against Russia, and Poles repeatedly launched wars against Russia. But both to them and to the Teutonic orders, our grandfathers repeatedly cleaned their turnips, and how kittens were carried along the ground with their muzzles - "Do you see, Russian? Remember !!!" And before the Second World War, Poland had an aggressive policy towards Russia, and not vice versa. Read a little why Poland did not want to conclude an agreement with the USSR, although the French ambassador repeatedly pleaded?
          However, it was a long time ago, now the proud gentry is controlled from across the sea.

          However, this is particular. The general provisions are as follows: small satellite states cannot conduct an independent policy a priori. They are independent only to the extent that they are allowed to be first-order players - such as Russia or the United States. Even Germany is independent in the framework that the older brothers took to it.

          All these Latvia-Lithuania-Estonia-Poland-others will ALWAYS look for a master, will always run into servants to a stronger one. This is their mentality and a way to survive. In 1991, the traitor Gorbachev for many 20 years threw Russia into chaos. And all this trifle immediately changed the owner.
          In the United States there is now a crisis of such a force that calls into question their very existence in its former form. (The navel was torn to hegemony all over the world, obviously.) And what will happen next? In these satellite countries, new people will come to power and say that there was obscurity, that bad uncles fooled their heads, and they themselves are white and fluffy! And let's be friends again, because from there they don’t throw handouts to us.

          And so it will be. They always ran from hand to hand and barked in the direction they say. Is it worth paying attention to?
          1. petro
            petro 6 December 2012 00: 39
            0
            Yes, I understood, I understood that everything around is bad, I’m all alone in chocolate. And at the expense of Georgia and who attacked whom, you will tell tales to grandparents who watch one first channel. I do not condone violence, Georgia, but for some reason one can bring constitutional order to its territory, while the other cannot. It’s probably that they didn’t break out. Actually, Chechnya in Russia and South Ossetia in Georgia are practically the same. And imagine the situation during the Chechen war, the bombing of Grozny indiscriminately, Turkey protect the civilian population, brothers in the faith sent troops to Chechnya, threw the landing - how would you react to this. Double standards?
            1. alexng
              alexng 6 December 2012 08: 17
              +1
              The United States is already on the verge of collapse and a year will not pass, America will turn into fragments. Europe is preparing for the transition to national currencies. And where will you go after their collapse, now dead cats?
            2. Yeraz
              Yeraz 6 December 2012 10: 55
              +1
              Quote: petro
              Double standards?

              yes. But it infuriates that they are trying to prove the opposite, they say that we bring light and good, as the amers justify our democracy. Although others have double standards. We don’t need to build an angel out of ourselves.
            3. MstislavHrabr
              MstislavHrabr 6 December 2012 11: 39
              +1
              Turkish citizens do not live in Chechnya. And the Chechens would not want to accept help from her. But in Ossetia, Georgians were not slaughtered or raped and were not engaged in the slave trade and terrorism. So do not confuse horseradish with radish ...
              1. Yeraz
                Yeraz 6 December 2012 12: 22
                +1
                Quote: MstislavHrabr
                And the Chechens would not want to accept help from her.

                You are deeply mistaken. She will also accept it during the Chechen wars. Do not forget about the Chechen diaspora in Turkey. Chechens in Turkey are insanely respected and appreciated, ordinary people are very sympathetic to them. In all Turkish films, Chechens represent a proud Caucasian who is fighting against the Russian occupier.
                recently in one of the popular Turkish TV series, where the protagonist of the Turks is in Syria and there, like a Chechen man, they grab another one, and there appears a Russian general who is at the same time with the Syrians. And when a Chechen sees this general, rushes at him and breaks his nose. And the general demands that he kiss his feet (boots) or they will kill him and his friend. And these guys specially came to them to find out more. And if he does not kiss these legs, he will frustrate the whole operation. The Chechen came over and leaned in and stuck a knife in the heart of this general. The trick is that the film shows that even if an important operation fails, your partner will die, the Chechen will not step over his pride.
                And how imam Shamil is madly respected in Turkey.
                1. nickname 1 and 2
                  nickname 1 and 2 6 December 2012 16: 31
                  0
                  Yeraz,
                  Quote: Yeraz
                  a Russian general appears there, who is one with the Syrians.
                  - = Well, wait! maybe we’ll also judge and evaluate by the yellow press?
                  1. Yeraz
                    Yeraz 7 December 2012 00: 35
                    +2
                    Quote: nick 1 and 2
                    = Well, wait! maybe we’ll also judge and evaluate by the yellow press?

                    the question was that here 1 began to argue that the Chechens would not accept help from the Turks. Although the Gray Wolves of Turkey and Azerbaijan fought on the side of the Chechens, there was a supply of weapons and money and treatment of soldiers on the territory of Turkey and Azerbaijan. We know Turkey well, people watch more Turkish channels rather than local ones even while in Russia. We are very familiar with the life of the Turkish public and the mood in them. And the Chechens there are very respectful.
            4. nickname 1 and 2
              nickname 1 and 2 6 December 2012 16: 06
              0
              petro,

              Are you on recharge? And if you want the truth, then in Chechnya there were people who became clear to them, why do we need independence? And in South Ossetia there are no Georgians who want to be under the wing. NO! Do you see the difference?
              There in Chechnya, part of the population is for! No one here for!
              Well, here's how to rape a woman! In Chechnya, only the heel did not want, and the rest wanted = not violence! And the Georgians wanted to rape the peoples because the nail doesn’t want to rape with them!
              Well, a definite difference!
              And what interest do you have in Georgia?
          2. nickname 1 and 2
            nickname 1 and 2 6 December 2012 15: 47
            +1
            Rink,
            Bravo!

            petro, I would say this: A flower bed with gorgeous flowers, the aroma is awesome! But you walk around the flowerbed and Suddenly = stink ......
            It turns out PITCH, relieved the need right on the flowers.

            Dear PETRO, step back! along the radius and you will find a pleasant surprise!
    2. Piligrim
      Piligrim 5 December 2012 17: 42
      +2
      You do not see further than your nose !!!
      Where shmatok means fatter, there we (you). hoh ... m move.
    3. Rink
      Rink 5 December 2012 18: 15
      +9
      Quote: petro
      ..... just some people need to come to terms with the existence of Ukraine as an independent state and there will be no "anti-Russian idea." And so everything is according to the laws of physics - if you put pressure on something, there will be pressure in response. anti-Ukrainian, there will not be anti-Russian. Where the primary one is anti-Ukrainian.

      Separation of Ukraine (that's the name for a rather big country !!!) from a single country, and even against the will of the people, expressed in a referendum of 1991! - pure water separatism. In Ukraine, he was preached by a small local group of people in Western Ukraine, and the branch corresponded only to their interests, and even the interests of the United States. America has carried out such a forced separation of the Kosovo model against the will of peoples and against international law more than once or twice. There are enough examples.

      And about "it's time to get used to", what you will sing, dear, when they tell you that time to get used to the separation of eastern Ukraine and the Crimea? ;)

      Usually, separatists of your kind immediately stand on their hind legs when someone tries to grab a piece from the piece they have grabbed by the same method. Here at once all tolerance and mentoring tone are lost and "the interests of the people" and "the indivisibility of the native land" are immediately recalled. As the saying goes, double standards in action ...

      Are you ready to get used to the separation of pieces of the now "Ridnaya Nenka" according to the same scenario as pieces of the Union were torn off in 1991? or according to Kosovo .... Can you get used to entering the Crimea - will you need visas and burqa for women?

      PS I completely agree with the author - the Ukrainian project was created artificially on an anti-Russian basis. British intelligence, and later the State Department, masterfully mastered the art of using old and creating new ethnic conflicts. This is exactly the wedge with which they successfully pierce the granite strength of opponents. Nationalists of various stripes are happy to support them, not realizing that this is suicide, and they will have to pay for their help with tears and blood.
      1. Machaon
        Machaon 5 December 2012 20: 49
        +2
        Quote: Skating rink
        time to get used to the separation of eastern Ukraine and the Crimea?

        But this in the current realities is inevitable! United Ukraine is too bulky for the west, while the midgets are just their size.
  6. Mr. Truth
    Mr. Truth 5 December 2012 16: 21
    +7
    "The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea"

    No, not an anti-Russian idea. anti slavic.
    Ask the racologists to which cluster the elite of Ukraine belongs, both political and industrial.
    1. Machaon
      Machaon 5 December 2012 20: 50
      +1
      Quote: Mr. Truth
      Ask the racologists which cluster the elite of Ukraine belongs to, both political and industrial

      And to which?
      1. Mr. Truth
        Mr. Truth 5 December 2012 23: 50
        0
        Machaon,
        Quote: Swallowtail
        And to which?

        It can be said that the ideas of "Great Romania" or Pan-Turkism are closer to them for a number of reasons.
    2. AK-47
      AK-47 6 December 2012 10: 13
      0
      Quote: Mr. Truth
      Ask the racologists to which cluster the elite of Ukraine belongs, both political and industrial.

      Why rassologi, Putin has already decided everything.
      That incest between Russians and Ukrainians, which took place over the centuries, leaves us no choice.
      Quote V.V. Putin
  7. baltika-18
    baltika-18 5 December 2012 16: 22
    0
    I've met the expression "hinterland" of Ukrainian ports. What's that? Who knows? I could actually say in Russian.
    1. FREGATENKAPITAN
      FREGATENKAPITAN 5 December 2012 17: 31
      +2
      but what-
      ... hinterland
      zone of gravity (influence) of the transport unit; the territory, which, according to the predominance of traffic flows in certain directions, gravitates to one or another large transport hub (seaport, airport, railway junction, etc.). In the narrow sense of the word - a land gravity zone of a seaport (transport hubs and a network that are oriented and specialize in servicing the cargo of this port) as opposed to forland - an external water zone of influence of the port (other seaports to which cargo ships follow from this port) .
  8. Larus
    Larus 5 December 2012 16: 38
    +5
    the so-called Ukrainians were made with the help of the Polish Pans from the Russian people who were paid extra for the extermination of their fellow tribesmen, who fought with the Pans for independence and frequent riots in the last century. if our people’s quarrel is beneficial to the West, then this confrontation will be fueled from there, and as everyone knows there will always be those who do not care who to go for.
  9. in reserve
    in reserve 5 December 2012 16: 50
    +4
    Ukraine remains a state with "incompetent sovereignty." George Friedman, after visiting Kiev, came to the following conclusion that Ukraine is an independent state, but does not know "what to do with this independence." He noticed the well-known peculiarities of the mentality of the Ukrainian elite, who are concerned about the problem “to lie down” - under the European Union, Russia or the USA.


    This Friedman correctly said as prostitutes who give more under that and will fall. laughing Thank God, the people in Little Russia are sane, but there is nothing they can do because, as the author of the article writes, the influence of the "Ukrainian aligarchy" on the political elite is very great.

    It’s not badly written, but I don’t agree with the last phrase
    The most acceptable is the geopolitical architecture of Eurasia, starting from the triad - Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Turan, taking into account the peculiarities of Western Christian, Orthodox and Muslim (Turkic) civilizations.

    With this phrase, the author seems to put an end to Russia.
    1. pogis
      pogis 5 December 2012 17: 36
      +2
      Eastern Europe is Russia!
  10. uhjpysq
    uhjpysq 5 December 2012 16: 52
    +1
    )))))))) the correct title. all these western nations are sleeping and seeing how to grab our wealth. shish to you.))))))) and these independent ones they need as meat.))))
  11. homosum20
    homosum20 5 December 2012 17: 25
    +1
    Collected truths of anti-Russian analysts. Unconfirmed conjectures are given out as truth. Lost time for writing and reading.
  12. anchonsha
    anchonsha 5 December 2012 17: 56
    0
    ..... the article is designed for a dozen clever heads, but useful in a cognitive way. Everywhere there are traces of the State Department in the world. God grant that faster this State Department grunted from his gluttony. And the fact that Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR tried to sit on two, or even three chairs at once (considering the Chinese chair), but no matter how tricky it would be to pester on some shore. In old Europe, Ukraine is needed only as a dog for yapping at Russia, and is trying to keep it constant promises, which will soon become an associate member. The USA is also not in Ukraine right now, and so far the State Department’s interest in Ukraine has faded — well, it’s an unreliable partner, since his eyes eagerly run around. And still, we hope that Ukraine, even if half-dead, half-ruined, will agree to clear partnership economic relations with Russia, so that the latter will be sure that NATO will not be in Ukraine.
  13. Kars
    Kars 5 December 2012 18: 05
    -4
    Nothing if it is honest, here you can twist in terms and phrases as you like, no one can prove anything.

    They would leave us alone, but it’s not destiny that is visible --- they want to be the third Rome, they would take up Mongolia, otherwise the article says that China and the USA are squeezing the Russian Federation there.
    1. uhjpysq
      uhjpysq 5 December 2012 19: 51
      0
      ))) leave you unattended as well)) and get the enemy tanks on the border.
  14. Odessa
    Odessa 5 December 2012 18: 17
    -2
    Volodymyr Dergachev: The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea

    This professor is right. When the referendum was held, the Ukrainian population was carefully processed so that they would vote for Ukraine’s separation from Russia. Whoever is on the site, from Ukraine, remember, those slogans, Ukraine will be somastine, we have niva- fields, minerals, i.e. resources, etc. The emphasis was on the fact that Ukraine is so rich and does not need to depend on Russia. Here they achieved that the majority of the people still voted for independence, and now Ukraine independent!
    1. Rink
      Rink 5 December 2012 19: 58
      +1
      Quote: Odessa
      ...... Who is on the site, from Ukraine, now remember, those slogans, Ukraine will be somastine, we have cornfields, minerals, i.e. resources, etc. The emphasis was on the fact that Ukraine is so rich and there is no need to depend on Russia. And so they have achieved that most people still voted for independence, and now Ukraine is independent!

      There was no such thing.
      Ukraine voted to preserve the USSR. At the 1991 referendum in Ukraine, the turnout was 83.5%, of which 70.2% voted in favor of maintaining the Union. http://pomnimvse.com/255pb.html

      We were all simply "thrown" - against the will of the people, Humpbacked destroyed the country, working out the island, from where it came from Raisa Maksimovna ...
      1. Odessa
        Odessa 5 December 2012 22: 00
        0
        Rink,
        Ukraine voted to preserve the USSR. At the 1991 referendum in Ukraine, the turnout was 83.5%, of which 70.2% voted in favor of maintaining the Union.
        By the way, in Kiev it may be so, but in the southern provinces, so the brainwashing of voters was in full swing.
        So in 91 in many cities leaflets were posted with a digital percentage of resources being transported to Russia, then many bought the fact that Ukraine after independence would become a super rich power, but alas, this did not happen.
        1. Rink
          Rink 5 December 2012 22: 23
          0
          Quote: Odessa
          By the way, in Kiev it may be so, but in the southern provinces, so the brainwashing of voters was in full swing. ....

          Yes, the flushing was on.
          But the people voted in favor of preserving the Union, 70.2% throughout Ukraine as a whole, and this included the southern regions as well.
          Yes, you go to the link above, look. I will repeat it again: http://pomnimvse.com/255pb.html It’s just that the results of the referendum did not meet the expectations of their organizers so much that they didn’t spread too much about its results. They simply hushed up numbers uncomfortable for them, and did it their own way - against the will of the people.
    2. Kars
      Kars 5 December 2012 22: 45
      -2
      Quote: Odessa
      for the separation of Ukraine from Russia

      What is Russia at three in the morning --- USSR. And there wasn’t much, my parents voted for the preservation of the USSR.

      But Russia is not the USSR, and will never be.
      Quote: Odessa
      Ukraine is so rich

      It is rich, only with the collapse of the USSR, all the wealth were former communists and Komsomol members (there is no OBKHSS on them), one former deputy chief commissary of Zaporizhia was my first employer, who put me in a managerial position. All of his assets are seized objects of the Komsomol, starting with dormitories, ending with garage cooperatives.
      Quote: Odessa
      and now Ukraine is independent!

      Well, at least something, and then naladis.
  15. pakukr
    pakukr 5 December 2012 18: 31
    0
    I agree that the title of the article does not correspond to the content. Although the independence of Ukraine is really an anti-Russian project, it was created in the late 19th and early 20th centuries by the Austrians who owned such parts of Ukraine as Bukovina, Galicia and Transcarpathia. The Nazis developed the project and the Americans took it up. The theory of Zbigniew Brzezinski is the basis of the Russophobic policy of all Ukrainian presidents after 1991. Anti-Russian propaganda, often crude and primitive, is broadcasted daily and hourly on all TV channels, on the radio and in the press. The so-called poet, KGB informer Vanya Drach, one of the inspirers of the "famine" campaign, has recently become a hero of Ukraine. He inadvertently revealed its goal - to get 5-7 billion dollars of compensation from Russia.
  16. Kolyan 2
    Kolyan 2 5 December 2012 19: 13
    +1
    Not when we were not enemies with the Ukrainians, but with the government, yes. v08 WITH GEORGIA. dafiga there were Ukrainians, nationalists, and their bodies were dafiga, but these are not people, but politicians, we also have enough idiots.
  17. rapid1934
    rapid1934 5 December 2012 19: 43
    0
    Normal analytical article.
    God forbid from the heads of state leaders to remove the idea of ​​personal enrichment and invest state thinking. hi
    I am naive - I believe that when this happens! stop
  18. uhjpysq
    uhjpysq 5 December 2012 20: 12
    -1
    ))) Ukraine is like a stupid Zhinka))) while a man was sick to leave for another)) a stupid woman was led by promises, but the peasant was kind enough for 1000 hours of swag. he’ll be hungry, dope in the west will leave back !!!!
  19. bart74
    bart74 5 December 2012 20: 21
    0
    For the first time in a long time, I put a minus article.
    I will explain why: The article presents a set of well-known facts. In addition to the policy of the arrogant Saxons, divide and rule, there are still variations of this policy: somehow it’s expensive today, I’ll wait until tomorrow, or I’ll search.
    This fully confirms the situation of the West with Ukraine, Armenia, and even more so with Belarus. In all other respects, the author overestimated the high marks of the pro-Western policy. How are things in the Baltic countries, Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania? Yes, not much better, and according to social indicators, even worse than in the days of the USSR. Well, I would not overestimate the role of "great power" Turkey. Turkey is the United States' short leash rabid insidious dog. And mad dogs are shot, either by those on whom they were set, or by the owners themselves. Well, I killed the forecast for Crimea, for its loss for Russia and Ukraine. That the peninsula would break off and float to California? Rather, (although this is unlikely to be 0,1%), it will acquire greater autonomy or independence.
    Although my forecast is more positive: There are all the facts to believe that in the next few years a new union state will be formed as part of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia and Kazakhstan. There are all prerequisites for this. Optimistic about the future!
  20. bistrov.
    bistrov. 5 December 2012 21: 45
    -1
    I read Dergachev's article with interest. I believe that he has correctly characterized the policy towards the countries of Eastern Europe, the USA and Great Britain, as well as North Africa and the Caucasus. The position of Ukraine in this world was also correctly assessed, I especially liked the definition of "the corrupt Ukrainian elite". As they say, not in the eyebrow, but in the eye. But I do not agree with Dergachev in everything, I think Ukraine will still have to join the CU, otherwise it will simply have a financial collapse, which is fraught with its disintegration into smaller parts. The priorities of Russia were generally assessed correctly, and I think the Russian leadership also understands this, therefore, it is modernizing its Armed Forces.
  21. APASUS
    APASUS 5 December 2012 21: 46
    +2
    After the collapse of the USSR, the main task of the nascent elite, the newly made states (in their own opinion) was the desire to take a place in the queue. Lick the USA deeper !!!
    1. nickname 1 and 2
      nickname 1 and 2 6 December 2012 18: 27
      0
      APASUS,
      Somehow ---? Well, they didn’t take it to the comm? And keep in the nest ....negative
  22. Lucius
    Lucius 6 December 2012 02: 36
    0
    Eclecticism is continuous. Not interested.
  23. afire
    afire 6 December 2012 13: 50
    0
    after the second paragraph the essence is lost .... nafig "-"
  24. patriot2
    patriot2 6 December 2012 15: 19
    0
    Quote: Lucius
    Eclecticism is continuous. Not interested.

    With regards to practice: Do you know dear forum users that if you have a relative (God forbid) a relative in Ukraine who left you an apartment, house or money, you will pay 40% tax at the market price for the property, although you are the same Ukrainian, but with a Russian, German or some other passport. Every year your property will be checked, counted by apple trees and pears on the site and God forbid you bring the products to the market ... These are not fairy tales - these are the realities of our life based on the example of my relatives and friends. No European country fights such taxes from foreigners, and Ukraine fights! And what attitude do they want in return? I think - that love from everyone who has the misfortune of getting into a similar situation!
    1. biglow
      biglow 6 December 2012 17: 09
      0
      You draw up real estate in Ukrainian citizens and then donated from Ukrainian citizens or transfer all rights to manage to another person, that is, a citizen of the Russian Federation for example. And all the property formally belongs to a citizen of Ukraine, but in reality he can’t do anything with it. Cheaper to a lawyer once to pay money and then sleep peacefully
  25. patriot2
    patriot2 6 December 2012 17: 48
    0
    Quote: biglow
    make out real estate in Ukrainian citizens

    but if entot citizen. Ukraine is dying too, does his family property pass? And then the right to control then in court can be played back! And goodbye hut + 6 acres! Well, you definitely humane wassat attitude to foreigners, so ktozh will invest in Ukraine ?! laughing
    1. biglow
      biglow 7 December 2012 15: 54
      0
      I have nothing to do with it, as the ancient Romans say the law is harsh but it is a law. And it has all sorts of silk to work around. Any competent lawyer will tell you in more detail. And what prevents you or someone from getting a local passport and using all the good citizens of Ukrainian did so at the time and more than many of these problems do not exist. Nobody needs to hand over a Russian passport. Costs are not very high.