Volodymyr Dergachev: The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea
REGNUM publishes, with some reductions, the report by Vladimir Dergachev, a professor at the Odessa National University, at the international conference "Stability in the Black Sea Region: External and Intra-Regional Threats and Ways to Overcome Them" (Simferopol, 15-18 November 2012).Geopolitics of the Black Sea Region: External and Internal Challenges
After the suicide of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the world socialist system during the period of short market romanticism, the idea of creating the Greater Black Sea Coast — an effective regional economic grouping — dominated. In 1992, the Agreement on the Black Sea Economic Cooperation was signed, on the basis of which, in 1999, the Black Sea states formed the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization (BSEC). However, this idea came into conflict with the logic of global competition and the Eurasian doctrine of the United States. The leading geopolitical players in the Black Sea region are the European Union, the USA, Turkey and Russia. The main goal was to geopolitically reformat the region. Bulgaria and Romania have become members of the European Union and NATO. Georgia was under the special patronage of the United States, which turned the republic into an outpost of America in the Caucasus. The regional economic association GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova), the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development, the TRACECA communication project (the Silk Road through the South Caucasus and the Black Sea) were created. But as time passed, these large-scale projects proved to be ineffective or unsuccessful.
The BSEC organization did not become a full-fledged regional grouping. A paradoxical feature of this regional cooperation is that most countries, ignoring real geography and geopolitics, declare a strategic European or pro-American choice. The competition between them for transit functions dominates over integration projects of subregional cooperation.
As a result of the failure to create a "pink-orange" geopolitical chastity belt on the borders of Eurasian civilizations, another defeat occurred in the Eurasian geopolitics of the United States. The artificially created interstate political and economic association GUAM virtually ceased its activities. This American project, which has no economic feasibility, was supposed to fulfill the geopolitical anti-Russian role in deepening the split of the post-Soviet space and its reformatting in the interests of the West. An attempt to reanimate the project by creating a regional Organization for Democracy and Economic Development also failed. The regimes created as a result of "color" revolutions by American political consultants in Ukraine and Georgia were defeated. Participation in the GUAM anti-Russian geopolitical entity did not bring Kiev political capital and economic benefits. Foreign trade turnover with the countries of this group did not exceed 2%.
The widely publicized project of the European Union of the Euro-Asian International Transport Corridor (TRACECA) from Western and Northern Europe through the Black Sea to the South Caucasus and Central Asia to China did not meet the rainbow expectations. The absence of promising mass freight traffic indicates the limited possibilities of this option for the revival of the Great Silk Road. In connection with the creation of the Customs Union, the importance of transit from the APR to the European Union through the territory of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, forming a single customs space, has increased. Whereas along the TRACECA route, many customs and other border barriers remain ...
Due to political instability, the Black Sea region remains unattractive for foreign investments. As a result, not only the global financial, but the systemic crisis of the neoliberal model, the Black Sea region found itself on the global periphery. Why?
One of the mistakes characteristic of the relatively young from the standpoint of the historical time of the Western political economy system was the ignoring of world geopolitical cycles. The well-known geopolitical model of Kondratieff-Wallerstein was created for the capitalist system, which has several centuries, and does not take into account the probability of changing large geopolitical cycles. The global systemic crisis of the neoliberal model of globalization coincided with the change of the world geopolitical cycle East - West - East. According to the author’s geopolitical theory of Large multidimensional spaces, the following geopolitical cycles are distinguished: short-term 40-year cycles, medium-term 100-year cycles, long-term 500-year cycles of a cardinal change of world geopolitical architecture and world (global, transcontinental) communications.
There is a cardinal change in the global geopolitical architecture of the world. A new 500-year geopolitical cycle begins, leading to a change in the general direction of East - West - East, and the corresponding transformation of world (transcontinental) communications and world poles of economic and technological development. Currently, Eurasia enters a new geopolitical (communication) cycle, when the South Seas receive priority over the transcontinental routes between the West and East of Eurasia. Third time in Eurasian stories with an interval of five centuries comes the Great Hour of the South Seas - the Great Sea Route between the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region and Europe. As the history of the Eurasian continent shows, when the sea route begins to revive, the Silk Road dies out. Hopes for the revival of this world communication due to the lack of competitive container shipping turned out to be exaggerated.
The great powers after the collapse of the USSR began the battle for the Great geopolitical space. Western European states forced the process of expansion to the East of the European Union, where Romania and Bulgaria were taken from the Black Sea states. Implementing the Eurasian doctrine, the United States announced the creation of the geopolitical project of the Greater Middle East, which included the former Soviet Caucasian republics (Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia). And in order to prevent the excessive “fraternization” of Germany and Russia, they began to pursue a consistent policy on the creation of the Black Sea-Baltic corridor based on Poland and Romania. In order to prevent the strengthening of Russia's power through integration with Ukraine, special attention was paid to the organization of the Orange Revolution, and the separatist provincial nationalists were declared petrel democracy. With great delay after the geopolitical suicide of the USSR, a democratic Russia is waking up with the intentions of creating a Eurasian economic space (Eurasian Union). Successfully modernizing Turkey also does not wish to limit itself to the Black Sea economic cooperation, especially since it has become a model of imitation and attraction for the Turkic states and republics in the post-Soviet space. Given this quality of a significant part of the Ukrainian political elite as venality, with the deterioration of the economic position of the independent state, transformation of the so-called strategic partnership of Kiev with Beijing to the creation of a Chinese protectorate in the Black Sea region is not excluded.
The United States did not refuse and will not abandon the implementation of the geopolitical Eurasian doctrine, called the "democratic loop of Anaconda". If in the era of confrontation between the two superpowers, this “loop” of containment of the Soviet bloc covered the coastal zone of Eurasia, then at the turn of the century it shifted to the frontiers (shores) of Eurasian civilizations from Poland through the Black Sea and South Caucasus, Central Asia and Mongolia, that is, from Baltic to Pacific the ocean. The military bases of NATO in the Baltic countries, Poland, Southeast Europe (Romania and Bulgaria), the American presence in the South Caucasus (Georgia) and Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) became a reality. For the influence in Mongolia, there is a fierce struggle between the United States and China with a weakening Russian presence.
Due to the fact that the forecasts of American analysts regarding Beijing were not justified, and China may be ahead of the US in economic power much earlier (by 2016), Washington focuses on Eurasian geopolitics on the creation of a sanitary cordon in the Asia-Pacific region. Accepted Pacific military doctrine aimed at deterring the Middle Kingdom in the region. The US military bases in the APR will be strengthened by the redeployment of a large part of the American troops from Afghanistan. Reformatting in foreign policy weakens, but does not cancel, the US military presence in the Black Sea region.
In the implementation of its Eurasian doctrine, the United States is counting on the help of an ally in the NATO region - Turkey, which unsuccessfully tried to integrate into the European Union. Washington consistently pursues the policy of the "democratic loop of Anaconda" to create a buffer zone between Western Europe and Russia. American geopolitics George Friedman offers Turkey an alternative to European integration - to head the buffer zone between the Baltic and Black Sea (Intermarium), in which America actively takes care of Poland and Romania.
However, Turkey has other geopolitical plans. Ankara implements a liberal multi-partner version of the neo-Eurasian doctrine with elements of the “third way”, effectively cooperating with the West and the East, in contrast to the multi-vector Russian policy of constant concessions. This course has intensified the struggle of local Westerners and Eurasians. In 2010, a historic referendum was held in Turkey, in which the ruling Justice and Development Party received a “vote of confidence” regarding further democratization and limiting the role of the army, which was the guarantor of Kemistism. Turkey is not only being reborn as a regional power, but has also been able to offer its model of integration in a multipolar world. In contrast to the primitive and failed national Russian idea of "doubling the GDP," the foundation of Turkish modernization was the combination of high technology and high moral character. Turkey effectively uses the Eurasian geopolitical position of the country at the historical crossroads of trade routes. But most importantly, the multi-partner geopolitics of Turkey is dominated by a sense of national dignity and there is no blind servility of power before the West. Turkey has an active foreign policy in the South Caucasus, where its main ally is Azerbaijan. The construction of the Kars (Turkey) -Tbilisi-Baku railway will strengthen Turkey’s presence in the Caucasus. Turkish business is widely represented in Georgian Adjara (Batumi).
Geopolitics do not tolerate emptiness, and in the post-Soviet space in Azerbaijan, Ajaria and Gagauzia, the influence of Turkey has increased, in Moldova - Romania, in Georgia - the United States. In the Russian Far East, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan - China, in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan - Iran and Turkey. Despite this, Russia remains the main geopolitical player in the post-Soviet space of the CIS, is the main or major trading partner for most of the newly independent states. Providing work for millions of migrant workers, Russia relieves social tensions in neighboring countries.
In recent years, Russia's activity in the Black Sea region has increased, due to the energy factor (the Blue Stream project under the Black Sea bypassing Ukraine) and preparations for the Olympic Games in Sochi. Russia is interested that the military threat does not emanate from its southern borders in the Black Sea and in the Caucasus. Despite the loss of economic power, Russia remains the second nuclear power. The Moscow Kremlin is not trying to recreate the Russian empire, because it does not want to take responsibility for the new independent states, but seeks to prevent their military-political alliance with the West (NATO) and offers an Eurasian integration model like the European Union. But in order to preserve the status of a great power, Russia often allows itself to be used as a "cash cow."
In connection with the voiced project of the Eurasian Union, Western pressure on Belarus and Kazakhstan intensified in order to prevent the integration of the post-Soviet space. For Belarus as a carrot, it is proposed to discuss with the help of pro-Western NGOs the mythical integration of Belarus into the European Union, taking into account the failed experience of Ukraine. Here, mediators are mainly Poland and Lithuania. This issue was discussed at the international conference “Belarus at the Crossroads of Integration: Relations with the EU in the Situation of Forming the Eurasian Union” (Minsk, November, 2012). In the future, it is proposed to implement the idea of “integration of integrations” of a non-existent Eurasian Union with the European Union. Nor can we ignore the revitalization of the role of successfully modernized Turkey in the post-Soviet space, especially in relations with Kazakhstan.
Ukraine remains a state with "incompetent sovereignty." George Friedman, after visiting Kiev, came to the following conclusion that Ukraine is an independent state, but does not know "what to do with this independence." He noticed the well-known peculiarities of the mentality of the Ukrainian elite, who are concerned about the problem “to lie down” - under the European Union, Russia or the USA.
The historical nature of Ukrainian independence is based on the anti-Russian idea. Therefore, permanent Russian-Ukrainian conflicts will continue in the foreseeable future, until a single Ukrainian nation takes place instead of a split Western and Eastern Ukraine. Unlike Russia, the Ukrainian oligarchs have a huge influence on the government and use it to solve their corporate problems. Independent Ukraine has yet to overcome the "younger brother" syndrome, which is used to rely on the preferences of the "older brother", regardless of their behavior.
The problems of joining the EU Free Trade Zone and the CIS Customs Union do not have a purely economic solution for Ukraine. The choice does not depend on the political will of the authorities, but on the desire of the Ukrainian oligarchs to obtain legitimacy in the West for capital and assets that are taken offshore. Recently, against the background of the permanent deterioration of business relations with Russia, Ukraine began to force the Chinese geo-economic vector, which could lead to the creation of a Chinese protectorate in Eastern Europe. Taking into account China’s policy regarding the repurchase of debt securities of some EU countries, Beijing is becoming a new geopolitical player on the European continent.
Russia for two centuries has spent enormous material and financial resources and created a powerful infrastructure for the communication "south window" to Europe and other parts of the world. Strengthening the position of NATO in the Black Sea, the unilateral adoption by Turkey of restrictions on the shipping regime in the Straits, has caused significant damage to the interests of Russia. A new communication axis St. Petersburg - Moscow - Voronezh - Rostov-on-Don - Novorossiysk is being formed. Creating a new route "from the Varangians to the Greeks" will further narrow the hinterland of the Ukrainian ports and increase the intensity of the regions of Eastern Ukraine to this highway. The future of Russian-Ukrainian relations will depend on the ability to use the creative frontier energy of the multidimensional communication Eurasian space in order to achieve a geopolitical balance between East and West, North and South, with Russia's dominant role.
For geopolitics "Big Pipe" Ukraine is seen from the Kremlin as a transit state, and not the largest outside the space of the Russian language and culture. If the Kremlin loses the final battle for Eastern Europe and the integrity of the Orthodox civilization, it will be possible to put an end to the revival of a great power.
Romania claims to be the regional power in Southeast Europe. For the first time in the last century, the country was freed from the threat of rejection of the Black Sea Dobrudja, through which the strategic land corridor of the Russian / Soviet empire to Istanbul passed. Romanians, proud of the Roman roots of the name of the state and language, feel themselves part of Western Europe. While in the socialist camp, the Romanian leadership often distanced itself from Soviet politics and was oriented toward the West. Thanks to Western loans, Communist Romania implemented a grandiose project to build the Chernovody-Constanta canal. The communist leadership paid off foreign debt, but undermined the living standards of the Romanians. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in Romania, a bloody anti-communist revolution was carried out, the “genius of the Carpathians” - President Ceausescu was executed, and the special services (securitized) became an integral part of the “democratization” of the country. The European Union and NATO were chosen by the new government as a reliable "roof" to preserve sovereignty. But as time has shown, the "roof" was full of holes.
The nationalist party "Great Romania" is in favor of territorial claims to Ukraine, for the revision of state borders and reunification of southern Bessarabia and northern Bukovina with Romania and the creation of Great Romania within the boundaries of 1940. The party was represented in the Romanian parliament, but in the 2008 elections, it did not overcome the five percent barrier. The doctrine of "Great Romania" was made possible by the provincial nationalists of Ukraine and Moldova, who considered the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact criminal. Creating Great Romania on the basis of reunification with Moldova will always find supporters among the country's political elite (Obviously, "reunification" means the re-occupation of Bessarabia and Bukovina by Romania, by analogy with the occupation in 1918 - 1940 and 1941-1944. Formation of the Romanian state and Romanian as Nation took place on a part of the territory of modern Romania - in Wallachia and Moldavia - in the second half of the XIX century, when Bessarabia was already part of the Russian Empire, and Bukovina - as part of Austria-Hungary - a comment from REGNUM). Opponents of the Romanian nationalists consider the Romanian identity to be secondary to the Moldovan one. Moldova was a prosperous Soviet republic. Therefore, here, unlike in CEE countries, nostalgia for the Soviet past has been preserved.
In Romania, mainly in Transylvania, there are 1,5 million Hungarians who are fighting for autonomy. A prominent role in the political space of Romania is played by the Democratic Union of Hungarians of Romania, which has a representative office in the European Parliament. In 2011, in Hungary, the law came into force providing not only second Hungarian citizenship, but also the right to vote for members of the diaspora. A similar law aimed at the “reunification of the nation” at the expense of Moldova and Southern Bessarabia exists in Romania. Therefore, forcing the creation of the “Great Romania” by the Romanian nationalists could lead to the loss of Transylvania.
The United States assigns Romania an important role in creating the anti-Russian axis Warsaw-Bucharest. Moreover, in the new history, attempts have already been made to construct it (the Polish concept of Third Europe, the projects of the Central European Union and the creation of a "Central European Federation of People's Democracy". Washington recommends Romania to cooperate more actively with members of the Visegrad Four (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia), lobbying their interests in the Black Sea region - an important corridor for the transportation of energy resources.
"Dizzy with success" led to the hasty expansion of the European Union to the East. In violation of the rules, new countries were adopted, whose macroeconomic indicators do not correspond to the average European level. In addition, the modernization process of the Mediterranean countries adopted in the EU (Portugal, Spain and Greece) has not been completed. As a result, the European Union was divided into donor countries led by Germany and peripheral depressed countries. In the face of the outbreak of the eurozone crisis, Brussels limited its ability to support peripheral countries. The European Union does not have military-political power, and the United States absolutely dominates NATO. Therefore, although the military bloc ceased to be a defensive alliance, the CEE countries are forced to maneuver between the orientation towards Brussels and Washington.
In the CEE countries, before the eurozone crisis, dependent "Eurooptimism" remained, with pro-American sentiments falling. George Friedman believes that the CEE countries must overcome the naive fantasy that the infant European Union "represents a millennial transformation of Europe into the peaceful Kingdom of Heaven." The eurozone crisis has clearly shown that this is not the case. "
In Eastern Europe, the regional indicator of the processes of geopolitical and geo-economic transformation is the historical region of New Russia (with the Crimea) or the Ukrainian Black Sea region. Here is concentrated the largest array of Russian and other non-titular peoples for Ukraine abroad. This is a socio-cultural region with a deep historical memory formed in the geopolitical space of the Russian Empire. New Russia has become the most successful example of creating a multi-ethnic society in a European way with elements of personal and economic freedom. Unlike the Ukrainians of Galicia, the former colonial outskirts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, in the mentality of the inhabitants of the Black Sea region internationalism has always dominated the ideas of nationalism.
New Russia is the most successful example of European regional integration in the Russian Empire related to the personalities of statesmen for whom the interests of the fatherland were higher than personal ones. European liberalism, polyethnicity and traditions of economic freedom provided not only the standard of living, but also its high quality. As a result, during the Civil War, New Russia was mainly on the side of the whites, and the well-to-do peasantry fell under the banner of Makhno. Therefore, the Soviet government punished Novorossia with repressions, especially in the Crimea and Odessa, and the name of the region was taken out of use. Nowadays this policy is continued by the Ukrainian authorities.
This region in traditional geopolitics serves as the most important geopolitical hub of not only Eastern Europe and the Black Sea, but also of Eurasia, along with the Balkans and Afghanistan. The Ukrainian Black Sea Coast plays an extremely important role in the formation of the geopolitical code of Ukraine.
The unfavorable transformation of the Ukrainian Black Sea region is caused not only by permanent political crises in the country, but also by geopolitical factors. The unrecognized Transnistrian republic is a factor of instability, turned Odessa into the main criminal gates of Tiraspol to world markets (Replicated mainly by Moldovan media, information about the existence of large-scale smuggling, including weapons, from Transnistria, was officially refuted by the European Union’s Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine (EUBAM), which began its work on November 9, 30, as a result of a joint appeal by Presidents of Moldova and Ukraine, Vladimir Voronin and Viktor Yushchenko. The basis for the implementation of EUBAM activity was, in particular, the accusations of the Moldovan side of large-scale smuggling and illegal export of arms from Transnistria. In the course of its work, the mission did not find evidence of these allegations. 2005 July 27, the head of EUBAM, Udo Burkholder, stated that the European Union’s border assistance mission for Moldova and Ukraine had never considered Transnistria a “black hole”, and this is also confirmed by the OSCE and the European Commission - approx. IA REGNUM). A consistent policy in Ukrainian-Russian relations on the problems of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait is required. As the events of 2010 showed, the lack of an agreed legal status of the Sea of Azov and the strait can lead to interstate conflict. But the biggest problem remains the geopolitical transformation of a socio-cultural historical region with a multi-million Russian population, a landmark Russian-Ukrainian culture and the dominance of the Russian language. The problem of other non-titular nations is becoming aggravated; they do not want to identify their future with the poor state of a criminally corrupt democracy. This uncertainty adversely affects the investment climate in the Ukrainian Black Sea region.
After the fall of the Iron Curtain, the geo-economic situation in the Black Sea region changed. After a two hundred year period, the region “returned” to the northern periphery of the Mediterranean space, where its economy turned out to be uncompetitive, and the historical functions of transit trade were lost. It should be noted that the long Slavic road to the Black Sea was replaced by the disintegration of the historical communication space on the western borders of the Great Eurasian Steppe.
In the South Caucasus, Georgia serves as the main outpost of the United States in the ideological and geopolitical confrontation with Russia. In the past, Orthodoxy influenced Georgia’s geopolitical choice. But in order to restore the role of the Georgian church, it is necessary to dominate the community of truly religious citizens. Georgia under Stalin was an exemplary Soviet republic, living mainly on subsidies to Moscow. A myth about a special Georgian mentality was created. The myth of "united and indivisible" Georgia dominates among local radical nationalists. The Georgian political elite is predominantly anti-Russian and is not going to refuse militarily from dependence on the United States and joining NATO. Georgia lost after the next Georgian blitzkrieg of the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The leading industry of the Georgian economy is the food industry. Agriculture employs half of the working population. Agricultural land has been transferred to private ownership and is being actively bought up by the Chinese, Azerbaijanis and Armenians. Local entrepreneurs are interested in restoring economic relations with Russia. The Georgian economy, especially agriculture, cannot effectively exist without the Russian market. Agricultural products of Georgia, located on the northern periphery of the Greater Middle East being created by the Americans, are absolutely uncompetitive here. In Soviet times, Georgia was visited by up to 5 million tourists. In 2006, for the first time in the years of independence, the total 976 is thousand. Therefore, the restoration of economic ties with Russia is possible if the creation of a NATO springboard on the territory of Georgia is abandoned. At the same time, the participation of Orthodox Georgia in the Eurasian Union, which so far exists as an intention, is unreal. Only after the effective work of the Customs Union will it be possible to discuss the deeper economic stage of integration of the Eurasian space.
The United States has implemented a large-scale project in Georgia to modernize the legal system and law enforcement agencies in Georgia. Against this background, the reform of law enforcement agencies in Russia looks like a parody of the Georgian law enforcement system, although it has not eliminated, other than corruption, other local problems.
Due to emigration, the number of ethnic Georgians is drastically reduced and the proportion of Muslims is increasing. More than 2 million Georgians live in Russia. There are 60 thousand Russian, and hundreds of thousands left for Russia. Of the 100 thousand of Greeks, there are 10 thousand left. The Azerbaijani and Armenian minorities account for over 15% of the total population of Georgia (without Abkhazia and South Ossetia). In the regions of their compact residence (Javakheti and Kartli), the intensity of inter-ethnic relations is noted. Minorities do not speak the state language, their participation in the public life of the country is limited, all important local positions are occupied by ethnic Georgians. The process of migration of minorities to Armenia and Azerbaijan is underway.
Azerbaijan was considered as the main energy ally of the European Union in the Caucasus. The foreign policy of the United States is aimed at preventing close economic ties between Azerbaijan and Iran, where there is a large Azerbaijani diaspora. But despite this, in the near future a railway from Iran to Azerbaijan will be put into operation - as part of the international North-South transport corridor from Russia to Iran.
In Armenia, there is a confrontation between the pro-Russian and pro-American vector of foreign policy. Especially in the 90-s, an important role in this process belonged to the Armenian diaspora in America.
Findings. Recently, the Black Sea region is gradually turning into a peripheral zone of world politics. The organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation did not become a full-fledged regional grouping. Exaggerated was her role in ensuring regional security. The difficulties of regional economic integration are due to the geopolitical situation at the frontiers of Eurasian civilizations.
In the foreseeable future, the geopolitical situation in the Black Sea region will be characterized by the clash of the geostrategic interests of NATO, the EU, Russia and Turkey, and the real political and economic possibilities of controlling the transportation of energy resources. Attempts by the United States to oust Russia from the Black Sea region by strengthening Ukraine’s role and turning it into a regional power were unsuccessful. However, Russia's lack of a consistent and firm Black Sea policy can lead to a loss of geopolitical positions in the region.
As a result of the global systemic crisis, the influence of the European Union and the United States in the Black Sea region has weakened, with increased activity of Russia and Turkey. Events in Syria have become a test for Russian-Turkish relations. Syria was the main Soviet ally in the Middle East, and Turkey was a stronghold of NATO in the region. Therefore, time is required for geopolitical reformatting. In the Black Sea region, Russia and Turkey, who have centuries of historical experience in solving regional problems and their presence in the Caucasus, should be the guarantors of security in the first place. It is necessary to strengthen the interaction of Russia and Turkey in solving the problems of the South Caucasus. Turkey’s main ally in the South Caucasus is Azerbaijan, which traditionally conducts a moderately friendly policy towards Russia (apparently, by analogy with the “moderately friendly policy” of Moldova or the same Ukraine regarding the Russian Federation - REGNUM press comment). For Moscow, Armenia remains the main ally in the South Caucasus.
Ukraine and Georgia do not have an independent regional policy, they serve as pawns in a foreign geopolitical game. Bulgaria and Romania not only joined NATO, but also provided their territories for the deployment of American troops and missile defense facilities.
The unfavorable geopolitical and geo-economic transformation of the historical region of Novorossia (the Ukrainian Black Sea region) ended with the loss of sea power and general communications, including transit functions, the possibility of creating a resort of international importance in the Crimea. The investment attractiveness of the region has several limitations. From the north - permanent political instability of the Kiev authorities, from the west - an unsolved problem of Transdniestria, from the east - a restless Crimea with the problem of the basing of the Russian Navy. Only in the south did the Serpentine problem be solved due to substantial losses of the continental shelf (“The solution to the problem” was the loss of Ukraine’s 2009 in February to the UN International Court (to which it voluntarily agreed) of a border dispute with Romania. As a result, Romania received an 80% of the disputed territory around O. Snake. Potentially significant reserves of gas and oil, which are currently being investigated for the profitability of their production, are found on the shelf of Romania by Ukraine, for example, a REGNUM news agency.
Crimea occupies a special place in the geopolitical transformation of the Black Sea region and in the near future will become a testing ground for Ukrainian statehood. Over its long history, Crimea has never been associated with a weak nationalist state for a long time. Against the background of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, Crimea may be lost forever for Kiev and Moscow.
The loss of transit functions in the geopolitical code of Ukraine of maritime frontiers may exacerbate the problem of Crimea. This geopolitical "island" is weakly connected with the communication space of Ukraine. The formation of a transport corridor from Western Europe in the direction of Berlin - Lviv - Kerch with the creation of a stationary passage through the Kerch Strait and further to the Caucasus and the Middle East can actually enhance the communication functions of the Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea coast, especially the Crimea and Novorossiysk. Therefore, the Ukrainian government should support Tbilisi’s proposal to resume movement by rail and road along the Black Sea coast through Abkhazia. The restoration of this transport corridor will lead to reformatting in regional geopolitics in the South Caucasus. But expanding opportunities for economic ties is beneficial for all countries in the region. As the Eastern wisdom says "when there is trade, the guns are silent."
The emerging geopolitical architecture will become safer if it is formed on the principles of regional bipolarity. The bipolar world is more stable than a unipolar world, not only on a global scale, but also at the regional level. The most acceptable is the geopolitical architecture of Eurasia, emanating from the triad - Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Turan, which takes into account the characteristics of Western Christian, Orthodox and Muslim (Turkic) civilizations. The foundation of such an architecture of the world order can be the geopolitical axis Berlin-Moscow-Ankara. Such a geopolitical configuration based on an inter-civilization dialogue will be an important guarantor of peace in Eurasia and the Black Sea.
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