“The platform will not survive”: the Americans are reducing their activity in the Black Sea
Source: edition.cnn.com
Hot water area
The unprofessionalism of a couple of ground operators of the MQ-9 Reaper and the high level of training of the Russian Su-27 crews led to the fall of the American machine into the Black Sea.
March 14 unnecessarily nervous maneuvers drone and the "non-environmentally friendly" behavior of the VKS fighters showed Washington where the notorious red lines now pass. Now they are at least 45 kilometers south of those previously developed by the American intelligence services. And climb drones will have to go to a great height away from sin.
The Pentagon over the past year has been diligently probing the line, which will be followed by a response from Russia. As you can see, they groped and retreated.
Several overseas sources spoke about a change in the tactics of using the MQ-9 Reaper in the Black Sea. One of them, CNN, claims that the forced decision "definitely limits the ability to gather intelligence." The notorious intelligence gathering by the United States has been one of the key pillars of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a year now.
In addition to the sunken MQ-9 Reaper, the RQ-4 Global Hawk strategic reconnaissance aircraft regularly appeared in the skies over the Black Sea. The impudence was amazing - a few months ago, drones did not even turn off the on-board transponders. On the Flightradar24 resource, it was possible to observe how the drone cuts circles a hundred kilometers from Crimea. Even earlier - before February 24 - Global Hawk in the same way diligently ironed the Russian border area from the airspace of Ukraine. Together with the satellite constellation, US intelligence could transmit to Kyiv with high accuracy the deployment of Russian troops.
Surely even now Global Hawk strategic intelligence officers are regularly on duty over the Black Sea, only now with transponders turned off. And in this regard, the fall of the MQ-9 Reaper is most welcome - the Americans were given to understand that the next target would be a larger fish. If the Pentagon is still ready to sacrifice the "Reaper" without much reputational damage, then with the "Hawk" everything is more difficult.
Firstly, the car is several times more expensive than its younger brother, and, secondly, the Pentagon does not have so many of them - barely more than forty copies. If it also falls so well that it can be reached, then the resonance will be considerable. The Global Hawk is a highly secret vehicle, and even the “hard” of a drone thoroughly washed with salty sea water can tell Russian engineers a lot. As well as Chinese and Iranian. Now, if the heavy "Hawk" appears over the Black Sea, it will be much to the south of the previously developed corridors.
RQ-4 Global Hawk. Source: wikipedia.org
It was not by chance that the activity of the Americans and the decisiveness of the Russian Aerospace Forces escalated precisely at the beginning of spring. The Ukrainian forces are preparing an offensive, and now the Armed Forces of Ukraine need any information about the location of the Russian army reserves in Crimea. Accordingly, our command is trying to hide this from the enemy as long as possible.
As a result of this contradiction, the MQ-9 Reaper lies several hundred meters deep in the Black Sea. It should be noted separately that the Pentagon cannot provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with exhaustive information exclusively by satellite constellation - a nearby "Reaper" or "Hawk" with optics, radars and satellite communications is always needed.
"The Platform Can't Survive"
The ill-fated MQ-9 Reaper made the Americans change their minds about the supply of drones to Ukraine. Two high-ranking Pentagon officials at once - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chief of the local General Staff Mark Milley - said that the "big and slow" drone would inevitably be shot down by Russian air defense. Verbatim from Austin:
"This platform will not survive if they try to apply it in this environment."
Using the Reaper as a disposable drone to carry Hellfire missiles is wasteful even for the Pentagon's multi-billion dollar budget.
As a result, Ukraine will not see the "Reaper". How not to see the famous Bayraktars, about which nothing has been heard at all lately. Russian anti-aircraft gunners quickly found an antidote to these slow-moving drones, and Turkey quietly cut off supplies. Even in humanitarian quantities.
If it is worth talking seriously about drones in Ukraine, then only in the application of small-sized Mavik and FPV drones. Such air defenses are not detected, and the damage is quite tangible. Right now, the Ukrainians are trying to translate the number of drones into a qualitative superiority over the Russian army.
According to the military leaders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, three companies of drone operators are being formed in the rear, capable of influencing the operational situation at the front. The era of heavy and slow drones seems to be heading towards its end. Operators can only count on a good effect against a much less equipped enemy. For example, Azerbaijan against Armenia or the United States against Afghanistan.
American drones have become commonplace in the Black Sea. Source: anapathoday.com
The second reason why the Americans are afraid to supply the Reapers to Ukraine is the high probability that the vehicles will fall into the hands of Russian engineers.
There has already been a precedent - Iranian experts copied Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel drones and the same MQ-9 Reaper. Iran managed to intercept control of drones several times and even land. It is not known how accurately the filling was copied, but the fuselage contours clearly hint at American primary sources.
As a result, the risks from the potential loss of secret carriers outweighed all the bonuses from the open transfer of machines to the Kyiv regime.
Commenting on the possible discrediting of the technical features of the MQ-9 Reaper, Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder pointedly mentioned some measures to protect classified information on board the drones.
In this regard, the bike about the mined Challenger 2 for the Armed Forces immediately comes to mind. The myth says that every British tank at the front must be equipped with explosives so that if it is hit, the crew can quickly detonate it. At the same time, it doesn’t matter whether the Bandera people manage to leave the tank or not. Say, the British are afraid of falling into the hands of the Russians secret armor and other technical subtleties. It is likely that something similar is present on board every MQ-9 Reaper, since Ryder is so confident about the safety of information.
Summing up all stories, unfolding around the "Reaper", one thing can be said - good, but too late.
It was necessary to perform non-environmentally friendly maneuvers around American reconnaissance drones even before the start of the special operation. As we can see, the United States is not eager to start a third world war because of the loss of an unmanned vehicle. Also, Ukrainian patients were denied the supply of shock drones.
This, by the way, is the charm of an unmanned aerial vehicle. weapons. The fall of an aircraft into the sea is like the loss of a combat aircraft, but it seems that no one, except for the American psyche, was hurt. No one will provoke a world conflict over a piece of duralumin.
Therefore, American drones should fall into the Black Sea. With transponders on or not, but they should.
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