Is it possible to beat the United States in the Caucasian direction
On March 23–24, all media platforms (both Russian and foreign) sold news that the Constitutional Court of Armenia recognized the provisions of the so-called. Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. This is not yet ratification, but the last step towards it, since it is the Constitutional Court of Armenia that is the main authority in this matter. According to the constitution in Armenia, one's own right takes precedence over the international one.
If the decision had not been announced directly by the chairman of the Armenian Constitutional Court himself, then the news could claim the status of a major fake, if only because the text of such a decision is not on the website of the court. But there is a message dated March 10 (procedural decision of the Constitutional Court No. 15) “1998 July 17, signed by the ICC, Rome, on the obligations enshrined in the Charter, on determining the issue of conformity with the constitution. Postponement of trial and consideration of the appointment case. That is, on March 10, this issue was considered and postponed.
Why is this important?
But because today the Armenian official speakers refer to the fact that the ratification process itself began anew (it had already been considered and rejected by the constitutional court) three months ago and has nothing to do with the decision of the ICC in The Hague on March 17. Say, “it so happened”, because the government of Armenia approved the draft law on the ratification of the statute on December 29 with the date of 12.05.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX (so that those hostilities that directly affected the territory of Armenia fell under it).
And this is an interesting case - the media, including the Armenian ones, wrote that the Constitutional Court “published the text of the decision”, but there was no official text published, at least at the time of writing this material was not. There is a decision to postpone the consideration from March 10 and a video recording of the announcement by the Chairman of the Constitutional Court A. Dilanyan of the operative part from the court session of March 24. That is, there is a video recording for everyone to see, but to read the text, as it should be for all procedures, until it turns out, why such a demonstration?
And this circumstance, no matter what they say about the “procedural moment” and “planned nature”, allows us to conclude that E. Blinken’s conversation with N. Pashinyan on March 20 and the speech of the same E. Blinken in Congress on March 22 are related to this:
“I am putting pressure on Azerbaijan, including this week, to reopen this corridor. We are working on it. Without exaggeration, I think that now there is a favorable moment that would meet the interests of Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan.”
We are talking about the so-called. Lachin corridor, where our peacekeepers are also stationed.
Judging by the explosive reaction of our systemic media resources, and indeed of the press secretary D. Peskov, this move by official Yerevan was unexpected. I will suggest that our administration, it seems, did not initially attach serious importance to the very idea of an “ICC warrant”, which the United States decided to use in full, using all the foreign policy and PR resources.
In general, there were reasons for this, since the analogue with The Hague and the flight of the Malaysian Boeing could not be developed by the Americans. But, as we see, from the next call, Washington approached the projectile more prepared.
From the point of view of Russian-Armenian relations
From the point of view of Russian-Armenian relations, which in Armenia itself are frankly called "collapsing" by a number of political scientists, the decision on the Rome Statute is undoubtedly an extreme point, after which Moscow will have to take a number of strategic steps. Albeit not as loudly announced as we were deliberately shown on the video. Of course, here one can say the proper words about the fact that “Armenia was not kept”, but you can try to approach this situation both practically and pragmatically.
In several materials that were previously published on the topic of the Karabakh knot in the "Military Review" ("Zangezur corridor. Forty kilometers of geopolitics","Nagorno-Karabakh - the years of tragedy and international mathematics. Final stage”), this issue was considered in the context of a mathematical game, which is complicated by a very wide range of participants in the process, as well as the specifics of the electoral process in Turkey (“The general battle of R. Erdogan. Turkey launches presidential campaign","New realities in the Middle East threaten Erdogan with the loss of major trump cards in the midst of the election campaign"). But on the other hand, today almost everything that we see around us is not discrete phenomena, but a kind of multidimensional nesting doll, a clockwork, where everything somehow clings to each other with gears. Whatever aspect you take - a multi-layered pie of the most unexpected interests.
Since the United States has acted and is acting purely in terms of mathematical gain in such interconnected processes, they have mastered a method that can be called the “cuckoo method” quite well. That is, they lay their eggs in any nest that they can somehow reach. When this chick gives a voice and throws its neighbors out of the nest, this is a tactical issue for the United States. Another thing is that when the need comes, it turns out: no matter what tree you look at, the cuckoo calls everywhere. You to the left, they to the left, you are across the road - and there are these cute birds.
The second method is the so-called "decision forks" according to the principle: "choosing the worst of the worst." It was also covered in a number of materials when it came to US control of financial flows in Afghanistan, where the Americans managed, having lost strategically, to retain control over a key factor. If we continue analogies with birds, then a good result will be that, tired of the dominance of cuckoos, you will start shooting at all the nests in a row, for which you can be quickly and efficiently accused of genocide of an entire species, "unprofessional approach", non-compliance with the rules of the charter UN in terms of hunting, while passing through the UN General Assembly a resolution recognizing cuckoos as a species of value to all mankind.
The third method is that all cuckoo eggs and what they have hatched or may hatch are considered purely as assets and depositories. This is a set of shares for which Washington spends different amounts, but the final price of them depends not on the costs, but on what the US can exchange them for. The author proposes to consider this aspect very carefully. It is not as simple as it seems at first glance.
For the US, any share in the depositary has a minimum exchange price only for world domination and at the same time is not worth the paper on which it is printed. These papers can be folded together, exchanged, “pumped up the value”, offered as an option or bonus. Even pass it on to their partners in the "coalition", which, by the way, is happening with Armenia, which we will come to below.
The fourth method, and in fact a huge problem, is that the US media sphere is not journalism, not information, not even the formation of public opinion, but a system of selling shares. This is a service mechanism to justify the price of an asset. It is necessary to sell penny bases in Syrian Kurdistan for world leadership, the whole horde will raise the price, then switch to another direction, third, fourth, and so on in a circle.
Needless to say, with what greed our media catches any penny signal from the next "Bloomberg", which "hinted at something", and at the same time we do not know how to sell our steps at all. In order to be heard, it turns out that it is necessary to declare a nuclear weapons, to which exactly by method number two we will get the answer. Our news about Iran is reprinted by Reuters, the visit of the Chinese leader is being reviewed through the Financial Times. This is loudly called "information warfare".
Have you seen at least one representative of Iran on TV when we are discussing Iran, and at least a link to the official IRNA agency? Are we familiar with Arabic publications, Indian, Central Asian, but we do not have normal information links even with the Chinese. We give them briefings, but how much information do we get from their briefings? That is why they sell us every informational occasion as a diamond, although a diamond, alas, is usually made of paper.
math game
And now we need to return to the beginning of the material, actually to the mathematical game that is going around Karabakh and Zangezur and is even coming to the end of one of the important phases. And in order to understand the mathematical gain of the United States in this game strategy, based on the above introductory methodology, it is necessary to estimate what is the maximum price of an asset, which is the regime of N. Pashinyan for the United States. Simply because the method itself is built on an attempt to sell any asset at all at the highest rate.
We often hear that one of the fixed ideas for the United States is to initiate the collapse of the CSTO. But Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO will not only not destroy the CSTO, but, on the contrary, will strengthen it, since the CSTO is built around the Taliban threat to Central Asia and the protection of Armenia from Turkish expansion. Armenia is a foreign zone of interests for Central Asia, and the threat of the Taliban has nothing to do with Turkey and Armenia. Remove from this combination the requirement for the CSTO to protect Armenia from Turkey, and the CSTO will start a new quiet life, due to the real unity of interests.
The second well-known position is based on the thesis of "Washington's containment of Iran", but this argument only works partially. The Zangezur corridor is 40 km in a straight line, and it is not in any way a deterrent in terms of obtaining the same intelligence, especially considering the quantitative and qualitative composition of the American residency, not counting all the others. Today, Yerevan conducts trade with Iran itself without our participation, fully earning on raw materials and electricity.
The third position is the alleged desire of the United States to withdraw the Russian military base from Armenia. However, this goal is essentially secondary, since its presence has not influenced and does not affect political decisions in Yerevan. It can be served and sold in the media field really loudly, but this is far from the maximum.
But to whom this asset can be traded at a truly maximum rate is Türkiye. After all, Ankara has its own fork of decisions - to buy the Zangezur corridor from the United States, and maybe more than a corridor, or to fight Iran (obviously or under the rug) in order to get, most likely, much less.
And what will be the maximum price for the USA? Relations between Turkey and us, Russia. Iran, on the other hand, categorically does not want to get into a situation in which it is Turkey, and not the United States, that will encircle Transcaucasia and saddle the entire left bank of the river. Araks, where power plants are located. And Tehran can also put up with close relations between Baku and Tel Aviv, although for Azerbaijan this is more of a historically forced cooperation.
For Ankara, this is all the more important today, because after the earthquake, R. Erdogan cannot afford any mistakes in terms of protracted actions with unclear and implicit results, and on the other hand, foreign policy success is an integral part of his election platform.
It is Iran that is currently holding back Turkey, but if you press and aggravate it properly (and this is happening now), at the same time transfer everything to the plane of responsibility of the United States and the EU, then Turkey has a hypothetical chance to avoid a major clash, and get the result. Another thing is that R. Erdogan does not trust the representatives of the force that once staged a coup in Turkey, there are still platforms for dialogue with Iran, and Ankara traditionally sees not only Zangezur, but also the north of its neighbor as the maximum gain from bargaining with the United States - Syria.
Russia steps
How should Russia proceed in this infernal tangle of interests, especially considering that almost any step will run into traps associated with the specifics of the American method described above?
Oddly enough, but acting exactly in the coordinate system on which the main stock trader works - the United States. If the United States seeks to sell the asset for the maximum and only one player, Turkey, is ready to pay the maximum, then it will be adequate if Turkey receives an asset that the United States considers its own, without the participation of the United States.
We cannot simply withdraw from Armenia without agreement with Tehran, but even after the decision of the Constitutional Court of Armenia, the account of our active presence there, if nothing is changed, will already go “for a while”. We cannot bring the Karabakh clan back to power, the timing is shrinking, so these few months are better used to seat Tehran and Ankara opposite each other at the table and gradually reduce their direct presence.
Iran has now begun to seriously put pressure on the Americans in southern Syria, and is preparing major military exercises on its coast in response to the taking of Baku under control of the entire Lachin corridor. Kazakhstan stopped participating in the so-called. Astana format on Syria, as this project of the Nazarbayev era is unnecessary for him.
The creation of such a new platform for negotiations will allow, in a mathematical game, to level the value of the asset, which the United States is actively trading today, because there is really no one to sell it to except Turkey. The asset will remain in the hands, but there will be no price.
In the absence of such a market, Western media do not always work effectively, unless they are played along from within. And again, the closest example is a whole cycle of anti-Iranian provocations, they say, Iran is “just about” to strike at the oil resources of the Arabs. But the Arab buyer did not come to the auction, and the campaign did not work.
This schematic seems hypothetical only at first glance, but this is because such a model is simply unusual specifically in Russian public discourse. And again, as an example, we can cite the position of the United States in Syria a few years ago. If we rewind time, we remember that the US bases in Syrian Kurdistan and in the southeast at the moment were insanely expensive by geopolitical standards. Because it was the price of high prestige, but the price is in the moment. And in 2021, how much did this asset already cost, should the US try to “realize” it? And in 2022?
You can leave everything as it is and “pull the strap”, but this will only bring together the positions of R. Erdogan and the same E. Blinken, who, judging by his speech in Congress, is very optimistic. Because there is a market, an asset and a price, while R. Erdogan has deadlines.
Rather, our internal model of coverage of events will remain a vulnerability in this construction for us, when a smooth divergence from current Armenia and active participation in the negotiation process of Turkey and Iran on this topic will be presented from both the right and left flanks not as a mathematical trading model , but as almost an existential defeat of all times and peoples. And Bloomberg will be happy to help us with this.
Of course, there is nothing good in this, but here we just need to sensibly assess the costs. To do this, you can read the remarks, for example, of the chairman of the Christian Democratic Party L. Shirinyan or such a public figure as the director T. Khzmalyan, who directly and openly calls Russia and Turkey strategic enemies of Armenia. You can get a lot of such interviews and remarks from the forces that actively and tightly influence the current regime in Armenia. Some things simply cannot be quoted verbatim in the official media.
So there is something to launch in the media sphere as well, if there is a desire and goal-setting.
Information