American intelligence officers about us: or why are we fatally hindering them?
Partial translation of the Stratfor analytical article. Original: http: //www.stratfor.com/
"Russia has no shortage of geographic obstacles to success - its wide open borders seem to be created for invasion, its vast plains impede economies of scale, the lack of navigable rivers makes it poor, and the dry and cold climate reduces the harvest. But over time However, Russia managed to turn many of its weaknesses into strength, consolidating political and economic forces, making them tools of a centralized state, so that all the power of the nation could be directed to s any problems that arise.
This could be regrettably inefficient and gave rise to periods of instability, but this is the only method that Russia has implemented to ensure its own security. Russia has even turned its lack of natural easily defensible borders in its favor. Russia's vast expanses meant that the only way to secure its borders was to expand them, which put Russia in a situation of domination over numerous minorities, who knew well that they were used as dampers against external strikes. To control these nations, Russia has developed the most advanced intelligence apparatus.
This centralization, combined with the physical location of Russia in the middle of the lowland northern Eurasia, makes the country the natural counterweight to the United States and the state most inclined to participate in anti-American coalitions. Not only the location of Russia in the plains of Eurasia requires expansion outside, in order to achieve security (thus making Russia a "continent-sized power"), its natural propensity is to dominate or ally with any power that lies in its path. Because of its geographical inconvenience, Russia is not a country that can ever rest on its laurels, and its strategic need for expansion makes it a natural American rival.
Unfortunately for Americans, Russia is extremely resistant to American influence, whether it takes the form of hugs or pressure.
Russia's lack of a culture of trade or navigation makes any related to the Bretton Woods agreements unsuccessful (even today, Russia remains outside the WTO).
Russia is the largest state in its region, and this makes senseless (at least in the current context) the proposals of the United States, of any kind of military alliance, since there is no opponent against which Russia would need to unite.
Russia's exposure to influence across sea borders is extremely small, since populated areas are located only on the shores of the geographically limited Black and Baltic Seas. This makes Russia insensitive to the American naval patronage.
Even the traditional American strategy of using third forces to surround the adversary does not work as well against Russia as it does against many others, since the intelligence agency and network of Russia is coping with the problem of overthrowing hostile governments in this region (clearly demonstrated in the discharge of anti-Kremlin governments in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in recent years).
This means that the only reliable American opportunity to restrict Russian power is the same strategy that was used during the Cold War: the direct deployment of American forces on the Russian periphery. But this opportunity was simply unavailable for the past eight years.
From the middle of 2003 to the beginning of 2011, the entire deployment of US ground troops revolved around Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving no room for resisting the strengthening of Russian power. American concerns about the Islamic world created an opportunity for Russia to recover from the Soviet collapse. The revival of Russia is an excellent illustration of the regenerative abilities of the major powers.
Even just 12 years ago, Russia did not even have complete control over its own territory with the insurgency raging in Chechnya and many other regions exercising de facto sovereignty. National savings either disappeared in the 1998 crisis in August or were looted by oligarchs. During the American wars in the Islamic world, however, the Russians reorganized, re-centralized and earned substantial amounts of cash from the sale of goods.
Russia now has a stable budget and more than half a trillion dollars in a bank. Her internal wars were crushed, and she re-assimilated, broke, or at least intimidated all former Soviet states. At present, Russia even cooperates with Germany in the search for means of neutralizing American military alliances with NATO states, such as Poland and Romania, and continues to support Iran as a means of deterring the United States and neutralizing them in the Middle East.
Simply put, Russia is undoubtedly a country with the greatest potential - and interests - that can challenge the goals of American foreign policy. And considering its inconvenient for the protection of the border, the mass of subordinates of non-Russian ethnic communities and the American interest in interfering with major competitors, is to recognize that Russia is a state that has more than others to lose.
Russian power consolidates and deepens its penetration into the border areas of the Caucasus and Central Europe. While Americans were busy in the Islamic world, it became obvious what the Russians could achieve if left alone for several years. And the American isolationist impulse would allow the Russians to continue to transform their neighbors and return their positions to the old external borders of the old Soviet empire, such as the Carpathians, the Tien Shan mountains, the Caucasus, and perhaps even reduce the influence of NATO on the Baltic countries.
At the same time, the likelihood of a hot war is relatively low, Stratfor still ranks Russia's resurgence as the most problematic process for long-term American positions simply because of the combination of Russia's size and the fact that it - and this long-term factor remains - is a nuclear power weapons".
"Russia has no shortage of geographic obstacles to success - its wide open borders seem to be created for invasion, its vast plains impede economies of scale, the lack of navigable rivers makes it poor, and the dry and cold climate reduces the harvest. But over time However, Russia managed to turn many of its weaknesses into strength, consolidating political and economic forces, making them tools of a centralized state, so that all the power of the nation could be directed to s any problems that arise.
This could be regrettably inefficient and gave rise to periods of instability, but this is the only method that Russia has implemented to ensure its own security. Russia has even turned its lack of natural easily defensible borders in its favor. Russia's vast expanses meant that the only way to secure its borders was to expand them, which put Russia in a situation of domination over numerous minorities, who knew well that they were used as dampers against external strikes. To control these nations, Russia has developed the most advanced intelligence apparatus.
This centralization, combined with the physical location of Russia in the middle of the lowland northern Eurasia, makes the country the natural counterweight to the United States and the state most inclined to participate in anti-American coalitions. Not only the location of Russia in the plains of Eurasia requires expansion outside, in order to achieve security (thus making Russia a "continent-sized power"), its natural propensity is to dominate or ally with any power that lies in its path. Because of its geographical inconvenience, Russia is not a country that can ever rest on its laurels, and its strategic need for expansion makes it a natural American rival.
Unfortunately for Americans, Russia is extremely resistant to American influence, whether it takes the form of hugs or pressure.
Russia's lack of a culture of trade or navigation makes any related to the Bretton Woods agreements unsuccessful (even today, Russia remains outside the WTO).
Russia is the largest state in its region, and this makes senseless (at least in the current context) the proposals of the United States, of any kind of military alliance, since there is no opponent against which Russia would need to unite.
Russia's exposure to influence across sea borders is extremely small, since populated areas are located only on the shores of the geographically limited Black and Baltic Seas. This makes Russia insensitive to the American naval patronage.
Even the traditional American strategy of using third forces to surround the adversary does not work as well against Russia as it does against many others, since the intelligence agency and network of Russia is coping with the problem of overthrowing hostile governments in this region (clearly demonstrated in the discharge of anti-Kremlin governments in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in recent years).
This means that the only reliable American opportunity to restrict Russian power is the same strategy that was used during the Cold War: the direct deployment of American forces on the Russian periphery. But this opportunity was simply unavailable for the past eight years.
From the middle of 2003 to the beginning of 2011, the entire deployment of US ground troops revolved around Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving no room for resisting the strengthening of Russian power. American concerns about the Islamic world created an opportunity for Russia to recover from the Soviet collapse. The revival of Russia is an excellent illustration of the regenerative abilities of the major powers.
Even just 12 years ago, Russia did not even have complete control over its own territory with the insurgency raging in Chechnya and many other regions exercising de facto sovereignty. National savings either disappeared in the 1998 crisis in August or were looted by oligarchs. During the American wars in the Islamic world, however, the Russians reorganized, re-centralized and earned substantial amounts of cash from the sale of goods.
Russia now has a stable budget and more than half a trillion dollars in a bank. Her internal wars were crushed, and she re-assimilated, broke, or at least intimidated all former Soviet states. At present, Russia even cooperates with Germany in the search for means of neutralizing American military alliances with NATO states, such as Poland and Romania, and continues to support Iran as a means of deterring the United States and neutralizing them in the Middle East.
Simply put, Russia is undoubtedly a country with the greatest potential - and interests - that can challenge the goals of American foreign policy. And considering its inconvenient for the protection of the border, the mass of subordinates of non-Russian ethnic communities and the American interest in interfering with major competitors, is to recognize that Russia is a state that has more than others to lose.
Russian power consolidates and deepens its penetration into the border areas of the Caucasus and Central Europe. While Americans were busy in the Islamic world, it became obvious what the Russians could achieve if left alone for several years. And the American isolationist impulse would allow the Russians to continue to transform their neighbors and return their positions to the old external borders of the old Soviet empire, such as the Carpathians, the Tien Shan mountains, the Caucasus, and perhaps even reduce the influence of NATO on the Baltic countries.
At the same time, the likelihood of a hot war is relatively low, Stratfor still ranks Russia's resurgence as the most problematic process for long-term American positions simply because of the combination of Russia's size and the fact that it - and this long-term factor remains - is a nuclear power weapons".
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