The Beijing Accords: The Beginning of a New Political Era for the World
What happened in Moscow or Washington could only dream of in terms of significance: the two antagonist pillars, Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, not only sat down at the negotiating table, this had happened before, but agreed to restore diplomatic relations. And it happened thanks to the participation of China in the process.
This analysis was made on the basis of articles in Chinese sources: "People's Daily" (as without them), "Huangqiu Shibao" (this is the international department of "People's Daily") and China magazine. In general, these publications are enough to draw a conclusion about how everything looks from China.
Everyone knows the background: the countries finally severed relations in 2016, when the Saudis executed a Shiite preacher. To be honest, under a very far-fetched pretext. Attempts to reconcile the countries, each of which in its own way is a leader in the region, have been made for a long time. Here it is necessary to note the work of Iraqi diplomats, who tried with all their might to reconcile the countries by arranging a series of negotiations on this topic.
The Iraqis did it. Slowly, very slowly, the relationship warmed up. Saudi Arabia in early 2022 issued visas to three Iranian diplomats for the first time, Iran, in turn, reacted favorably to the unification of the energy networks of the SA and Iraq, in general, everything was slowly on the mend. But no more significant events happened, and the year 2022 went to history.
But in 2023, a miracle happened.
It is very indicative that in the final version it was not Qatar, which also took part in attempts to improve relations between countries together with Oman, and which is the authorized strategic partner of the United States in the region, that became the peacekeepers, but China. China, whose relations with the United States can hardly be called simple and cloudless. However, as well as relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Friendship against the USA?
Perhaps, but so, indirectly. In fact, China is up to its shoulders in the Middle East. In the Emirates, something secret is being built in the port of Khalifa, in the SA they have begun production of their own ballistic missiles using Chinese technology.
But 2022 was disappointing. Unrest and protests began in Iran (very timely, I must say), plus military cooperation with Russia and all the ensuing moments, plus Israel pretty much strained, which did not like either the Iranian nuclear program or the presence of the Iranian military in Syria.
In general, a war on several fronts is a very troublesome and unprofitable business, especially when your enemy can easily become your enemy.
In Iran, they realized that the SA, with its simply gorgeous (in terms of equipment) army and Chinese missiles, is not the best deal. And a bad peace will definitely be better than a good quarrel, and therefore they began to demonstrate their desire to resolve the situation as a whole.
True, Iranian Drones from time to time, objects in SA were nightmare, but they were launched by hot guys from Yemen. There were claims against Iranian hackers for attacks on the infrastructure of the SA, a lot of nerves burned out during the showdown of a strange series of sabotage on Saudi tankers. But in the last two examples, he is clearly not caught - not a thief.
It is unlikely that we will ever find out what was behind the scenes of the treaty process, but China suddenly burst in and splashed napalm into the sickly smoldering fire of reconciliation. And it started...
In order not to be unfounded, I will simply quote from the very Treaty that initiated the rapprochement of the two countries:
“In response to the noble initiative of the President of the People's Republic of China, His Excellency Xi Jinping, on China's support for the development of good neighborly relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran;
And based on the agreement between His Excellency President Xi Jinping and the leadership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, whereby the People's Republic of China will host and support negotiations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran…”
And based on the agreement between His Excellency President Xi Jinping and the leadership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, whereby the People's Republic of China will host and support negotiations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran…”
We will not consider the open part of the agreement, there is nothing of the kind. The question is, what's behind the scenes? Of course, "the triumph of Chinese diplomacy, led by the Chinese Communist Party" - it is, as it were, undeniable. But still interesting, what's behind the scenes? And what sore points have the Chinese pressed, driving Tehran and Riyadh to the triangular negotiating table...
Why is that? Because the Chinese, probably genetically, are masters of compromise. A compromise is possible only where there are mutual interests.
The war in Yemen, which has somehow become regional from a civil one, because in addition to the Yemeni parties, a bunch of countries of the region (Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt, the SA, the UAE, Iran and others) are participating, including the participants in this agreement. And this war is clearly already in Riyadh’s throat, because despite the superiority in technology, the coalition countries cannot do anything with the Houthis.
By the way, the government of Yemen in 2018 turned to Russia with a request for help in eliminating the conflict. There was no answer, in principle, our people decided not to interfere.
Iran, on the other hand, has repeatedly made claims to the SA about interference in its internal affairs. And the SA promised to stop supporting the groups "Jaysh al-Adl", "Al Ahvaziya", "Organization of the Iranian Mujahideen". Not just like that, in Iran they will also “bend” under the situation.
And here, of course, the most important thing is investment. Magic word. Money. Something, but the Al Saud family has more than just a lot of money, because the SA's investment in Iran is quite possible, since there is something to invest in. It is inconvenient to even talk about investing in China. However, on March 15, the People's Daily reported that the Export-Import Bank of China (Exim Bank of China) and the Saudi National Bank (SNB) had successfully concluded the first credit cooperation in yuan.
“The loan funds will be used primarily to meet the capital needs of Sino-Saudi trade. This cooperation is the first between the Export-Import Bank of China and a financial institution in Saudi Arabia.”
Actually, this about investments can not be continued. As they say, all parties reached a consensus and received their benefits.
It is worth noting here that neither side feels disadvantaged. It was a deal for three, where everyone got the most out of it.
Wang Yi, head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, who was present at the talks and the signing of the agreement, said that what happened represents a "victory of dialogue and peace."
“This shows that the Ukrainian issue is not the only problem the world is facing today.”
Subtle hint, don't you think? But negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are a separate issue.
And if we also take into account the words of Wang Yi that Xi Jinping personally led the negotiations from the very beginning, then the triumph of Chinese diplomacy, let's say, is also possible in other modern problems. Agree, this is not a “grain deal” for you, where some got everything, and the second got a flick on the nose. Here we see the excellent work of diplomats, multiplied by the ability to bargain. And the fact that the Celestial Empire knows how to do this is obvious.
What and how the Chinese diplomats did, stunned all countries, without exception, wishing to realize their interests in the region. And there are many such countries, Russia was once among them, but today Russian diplomacy has somewhat different tasks, such as Ukraine's grain deals. However, it is not for us to judge how important Russia's presence in the Middle East is. It doesn't matter, so it's not worth worrying about.
More interesting is the reaction of those who unexpectedly lost their positions. That is, the United States and Israel.
The Americans, as expected, made a good face on a bad game: they say, we were fully aware, all the Saudis told us. In general, we are in favor of reducing tensions in the region, so we just welcome and all that.
John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, spoke in this spirit. It is difficult to say how many arrived and aggravated the karma of Chinese diplomats from the Americans, but the path to a good rebirth will be difficult for them.
In Israel, they were more honest, but it was also more difficult for them: the United States is far away, and Iran is literally abroad, because the Iranian military is present on the territory of Syria. In their interviews, former Israeli prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid said without saying a word that this was a failure of Israel's foreign policy, which for many years built a wall against Iran.
Indeed, the difficult relationship between Israel and Iran may now become quite complicated. There was a reliance on the SA in the confrontation with Iran, since the principle of "divide and rule" worked here. Israel has built a very good relationship with the Saudis, who were at odds with Iran. And now, alas. It is doubtful that the SA will support Iran's anti-Israeli policy, but they will definitely not help Israel either. Most likely, the SA will implement a policy of neutrality on the principle of "figure it out for yourself." Well, if the Iranian industry is pumped with Saudi money, then the picture of the future is not very beautiful for Israel.
Israel will again have to look for allies, but the trouble is that almost everyone there is their own. However, given the ability of the Jews to get out of any situation, I am sure that in Israel they will come out of this with dignity. They really know how.
And China is the main moderator of the region?
Yes, it does. Probably unusual, because usually the Middle East was an arena for the USSR and the USA. But there is no USSR, and Russia has withdrawn itself from the Middle East problems, leaving the Syrian training ground and something like that in Sudan. But at least Russia itself ...
But the United States received such a strong blow to pride, because:
- the countries of the Persian Gulf demonstrate some consolidation in the context of the global crisis;
- they are in no hurry to "befriend" each other to please the United States and Israel, having failed the project of the "Abraham Accords" aimed at improving relations between the Arab world and Israel;
- consider alternative options for relationships in order to obtain greater profits.
Some even begin to say that the US is losing the Middle East. Not really.
China does not at all strive to act in an aggressive American style, this is what is noticeable and appreciated by all participants in the Middle Eastern cuisine. To be able to talk, negotiate and bargain - this is valued no less than "talking" with the help of cruise missiles and aircraft carriers. Mind and strength, strength and intelligence.
And yes, China is developing its presence in the region, but this is not a "campaign to the Gulf" in order to capture new markets, but rather, the return of the lost.
When China began its expansion into the markets of Africa and the Middle East at the beginning of this century, many in the United States clearly did not like it. I didn’t like it so much that the “Arab Spring” suddenly began, which claimed many human lives and displaced more than one government.
Almost the entire Arab world was engulfed in the "orange revolutions" and, by a strange coincidence, in many countries an active turn began in politics and economics towards China.
In 2010-2012, China lost a lot of positions, but the conclusions were absolutely correct. And March 10, 2023 was a demonstration of the correct understanding and the correct course of the Chinese Communists, who managed to very clearly distinguish between ideology and money. This suited absolutely everyone, so the PRC was perceived as a mediator very willingly.
And this is what is worth talking about.
It is still difficult to say what the real consequences of the agreement will be for Beijing, Tehran and Riyadh. Time will show. However, already today, many have begun to call China a possible counterbalance to the United States in the Middle East. With particular pleasure, the Russian media began to talk about the growing role of the PRC in the region, which is actually simply surprising. The enemy of our enemy is not always our friend. But not everyone understands this.
The US is indeed losing interest in the Middle East and losing ground there. But here it is necessary to understand WHAT the parties can offer. What was the "trick" of the USA? Investments, that is, buying up assets in countries and protection. How to use the sale weaponsand with the help of the armed forces.
Taiwan has shown the world that the US is no longer ready to saber-rattling and fight for others. But this is exactly what Saudi Arabia needed in a hypothetical confrontation with Iran. On the side of Israel. The Saudis have almost more money than the United States, but to fight ...
And the United States did not want to fight either. Therefore, they released the situation and allowed the parties to reconcile. It is clear that getting into a conflict between Iran and the SA would be stupid, and futile.
And China simply brilliantly played the image of a kind and peaceful panda bear. It has shown itself to be a very peaceful, but most importantly, responsible power that is ready to break the brains of its specialists and break into a cake, but to give constructive solutions to any problem.
It is thanks to this approach in mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia that the proxy war waged by the countries did not escalate into a conventional war. And it won't grow back. So only Israel suffered in the deal, for the sake of whose security a feud between Iran and the SA was started.
As a result, the situation that the diplomats of Qatar, Oman and other countries began to prepare, could only be pushed towards a normal solution. And the fact that the Republicans and representatives of the monarchy equally listened to the arguments of the Communists is definitely a victory for China.
And it was the Beijing Agreement that showed that the problems of any region (and the Gulf is one of the "hottest" places on Earth) can be solved without the participation of the West.
There is little new here, it is enough to recall the “Astana format”, when under the patronage of Russia in Kazakhstan they tried to put Turkey and Iran together and try to resolve the Syrian problem.
Here, of course, the question of implementation.
It is obvious that, having spied on Moscow, Beijing is trying to implement its own “Beijing format”. Why not, China has absolutely everything for this. To use the success of the "Beijing Agreement" while everyone else has not come to their senses is the right thing to do and such an approach will lead to success unequivocally.
Moreover, China has already gone on the attack. Xi Jinping has already invited Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Iran to hold a summit this year in Beijing. The first in a similar composition, which is just sort of like getting together for tea and talking about the future.
It seems to me that Russia was too early to rejoice at such a change of roles in the Middle East. China in this aspect is absolutely not an ally of Russia, China is a third force and a reasonable alternative. Moreover, in China itself they do not consider themselves allies or partners of Russia. Neighbours. Yes, kind, but only neighbors.
The role of Russia in the Middle East has significantly decreased, and its authority has fallen. Yes, because of the events in Ukraine. The Arab world is a world of power, and it is understood and accepted there like nowhere else. If in a month the tricolor would flutter over Kiev, the Arab world would applaud Russia. But today is a day of Russian weakness, and the weak are not loved in the Middle East. And this is very sad, since for Russia itself the Middle East is becoming an increasingly important region due to its growing isolation in the West and economic difficulties.
The Middle Eastern powers cannot fail to understand how much their positions in relations with Russia have strengthened, and since there is no alternative, it means that everything will become more expensive for Russia.
China, of course, has incomparably greater financial and technical capabilities than Russia. Given the successes in politics, multiplied by the weakening of Russia and the United States in the Middle East region, China will be able to fill all the gaps with itself, fortunately, the country has a lot to offer the Arab world. Including - importantly - weapons.
The victory of Chinese communist diplomacy is undoubtedly a success for the country and, perhaps, a new vector for the whole region. And given that the Persian Gulf is a very important region, as long as there is demand for hydrocarbons in the world, the consequences of a change in the vector may turn out to be very different.
The Beijing deal is a victory for China and a defeat for the US. There is simply nothing to say about the place of Russia.
Xi Jingping flew to Moscow. Quite possibly this is the beginning of a new political era in the world.
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