German analyst: Deliveries of regular arms packages clarify Western support for a new possible offensive by Ukrainian troops

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German analyst: Deliveries of regular arms packages clarify Western support for a new possible offensive by Ukrainian troops

The major American edition of The New Times writes that the decision of Western countries to deliver a new large package of military assistance, which includes both defensive and offensive weapon, says only one thing: NATO is sending a signal to Moscow that they do not intend to enter into negotiations in the near future.

From the material where the German analyst Ulrich Speck speaks:



The deliveries of new weapons packages by France, Germany and the United States clarify Western support for a possible new offensive by Ukrainian forces.

According to Speck, the West clearly supports such an offensive and is going to wait to see how it might end.

It is quite obvious that NATO, which expected that even before the new year the Armed Forces of Ukraine would take Svatovo and Kremennaya and go to Lisichansk and Severodonetsk with the subsequent possibility of advancing to Luhansk, is “upset” by the fact that this did not happen. Now NATO functionaries and the authorities of Western countries are trying to force things by making decisions on the supply to Ukraine of both Patriot air defense systems and wheeled tanks AMX-10 RC, and Marder and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

NATO is pushing the Ukrainian army to keep advancing at any cost. Accordingly, the West is not in the mood for any peaceful settlement of the conflict. And this became more than obvious after Kyiv, having received an explicit directive from Washington and Brussels, rejected Moscow's proposal for a Christmas truce. In the very first hours of the temporary truce announced by the Russian authorities, the Kyiv troops launched an artillery strike on Donetsk, demonstrating that a peaceful dialogue with Kyiv is impossible in principle.
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    1. -2
      January 7 2023
      So this is good. We don't need any negotiations. And it's good that the enemy so defiantly rests. The general situation is good.
      1. +1
        January 7 2023
        What good is that the enemy is so restless, because our guys die during the assault. Where is the "reason" A! In quotation marks "
        1. +6
          January 7 2023
          because if it hadn’t resisted, negotiations would have begun on the type of the Minsk agreements. If you are a supporter of such a boltology "for the sake of saving lives", then I hasten to upset you, it will not lead to safer lives. The enemy will only get stronger. It is necessary to destroy as much as possible until it rests and does not throw the weapon. That is, NATO is not in the mood for a peaceful settlement. Again, this is good. And this is to our advantage. It's a pity that you have to chew on elementary things. Well, on the other hand, after your pearl that the situation on the Korean Peninsula does not depend on China, I do not expect any special glimpses from you, excuse me.
          1. +1
            January 7 2023
            Let me remind you that the "Minsk conspiracy" began precisely after the successful offensive of the LDNR forces. Now I do not see any prospects for a peaceful resolution, only destruction. But! This requires forces, on our part they are clearly insufficient. words at all.
        2. 0
          January 8 2023
          When the enemy rests, he spends resources, and the resources of Europe are already coming to an end. We need that being Europeans began to confiscate the assets of Russian citizens. And without it, we won't win the war. Unfortunately
      2. +2
        January 7 2023
        The main thing is that some people understand three things already: 1) this conflict has no other solution than military 2) no one will return the lava and the yacht 3) warming the belly under the sun in unfriendly countries is more expensive both for themselves and for children. If this obvious evidence finally reaches the consciousness of the "pilots", then everything will end faster, bring fewer victims and destruction than a conflict that is smeared half-frozen and therefore rotting from the head :/
        1. +4
          January 7 2023
          Here is how the German analyst shook our opinion:
          possible offensive by Ukrainian troops.
          Ah, it's about
          Deliveries of regular packages of weapons by the West
          It doesn't clarify anything. It was clear before that the conflict was protracted, the enemy was strong. We fight properly further, without "Hurrah!" fellow and "Sentry!" belay
      3. +3
        January 7 2023
        I don't understand why you are downvoted
    2. +7
      January 7 2023
      The contradictions between the West and Russia have assumed an irreconcilable character... in this fight, Ukraine is an expendable material in any case.
      Now we do not need to think about the safety of this sub-state ... it must disappear from the map of the world.
      1. -4
        January 7 2023
        For!! With two hands. With what forces will we demolish all this to hell? To do this, we need to mobilize everything that we have. This has not yet been observed.
        1. +1
          January 7 2023
          Quote from: dmi.pris1
          .What forces are we going to take it all to hell? To do this, we need to mobilize everything that we have. This has not yet been observed.

          In general, the mobilization has already been carried out, and the declared number of mobilized ... there is an opinion that this number is seriously larger than the declared one. Yes, and the recruitment of volunteers continues. As well as recruitment for military service, which is now from the age of 21 to 30 years.
          Why do you think Lukashenka changed into a uniform?
          There is an opinion that the mobilized number is quite enough, these formations have undergone training and combat coordination and are now arriving at their deployment sites. It is impossible to hide this with the current means of reconnaissance, therefore NATO is also taking measures - by supplying appropriate weapons, well-armored infantry fighting vehicles and other armored vehicles.
          And it's already cold. Today we have -14 degrees in Donetsk in the morning. And finally the snow.
          So they are not urging the Sumerians to the offensive, but are waiting for our offensive. And for the first time in all 11 months, the enemy does not have a numerical advantage in manpower.
          1. 0
            January 7 2023
            I hold my hands for you. God forbid that everything be like this. Firepower, a fire shaft are needed here. But, do not lose vigilance, they do not receive highly mobile armored vehicles for nothing
            1. -1
              January 8 2023
              Most of all, surprise, speed and onslaught are needed.
    3. +2
      January 7 2023
      it is obvious that NATO, which expected that even before the new year the Armed Forces of Ukraine would take Svatovo and Kremennaya and go to Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, with the subsequent possibility of advancing already to Lugansk, is “upset” by the fact that this did not happen.

      The heroic deed of the Russian soldier prevented this tragedy from happening. Again executions and purges of the local population. Another genocide. Stopped, saved people.
      Yesterday's workers covered their Motherland Russia with their breasts. One of these workers was my classmate and friend, a participant in the battles near Svatovo.
    4. +4
      January 7 2023
      Quote from: dmi.pris1
      Two hands. With what forces will we carry it all to hell?

      To begin with, they will lift you from the sofa.)
      1. 0
        January 7 2023
        Well, if sixty-year-olds are required? Then we will go too.
    5. +1
      January 7 2023
      Quote: voice of reason
      So this is good.

      There is nothing good here. Dima is right about that. Here a video with Prigogine was shown, everything is so complicated, the enemy is stubborn and there is a lot of blood. So it won't work.
      1. +7
        January 7 2023
        Heroically storming the fortified areas in the forehead, yes. Instead of taking out the capital, destroy roads and bridges with bombs to a state of mud and kill the defenders of the fortified areas with a lack of fuel, weapons and grub. And so the strategy of heroic assaults on fortresses is "brilliant" ...
    6. -2
      January 7 2023
      The West will not leave Ukraine, since a lot of money has been invested there ..
      But, now the West will push the Kremlin to open an internal front (to worsen conditions for Russian citizens).
      Here's an example
      Deputy Governor Konstantin Polezhaev said that the insulation of facades is an optional type of work. It was a government initiative when there was money for it.

      During a live broadcast on the social networks of the Deputy Governor, Konstantin Polezhaev announced that in the Belgorod Region they would no longer insulate the facades of apartment buildings during the overhaul due to the difficult situation with the budget. He said that insulation is not included in the mandatory list of works, and this was done at the initiative of the region. Now there is no such possibility.

      - There was money, the region had additional income. This program could be implemented. Unfortunately, everyone heard that the governor spoke about this - the current situation is rather complicated with the budget, so this program has been suspended for now. Overhaul within the framework of mandatory payments will continue, but the insulation of the facades will be postponed for the time being, Polezhaev explained.
      The deputy governor also added that they would continue to insulate houses as soon as the situation with financing in the region improves. At the same time, major repairs on mandatory payments will continue.

      The list of mandatory types of work includes six items for which residents pay and for which tariffs are calculated. The works include restoration and reconstruction of: facade parts; elevators and adjacent shafts; foundation foundations; roofs; engineering and communication systems; basement and basement common areas.

      If the tenants still want to insulate the facade, they can make such decisions themselves, agreeing to an increase in payment and additional types of work.

      Now the authorities will begin to spoil and increase fees and taxes.
      1. -3
        January 7 2023
        During a live broadcast on the social networks of the Deputy Governor, Konstantin Polezhaev announced that in the Belgorod Region they would no longer insulate the facades of apartment buildings during the overhaul due to the difficult situation with the budget.
        So what....???? I am a resident of the Belgorod region. I treat this with understanding, the war is still going on. Expensive is "pleasure". (War)
        1. 0
          January 7 2023
          Another would be to forbid the governors to chat in public, some of them are already Internet stars and they don’t follow the market
        2. 0
          January 8 2023
          I am also a resident of Belgorod. Actually, I thought that this was done at the expense of overhaul funds, which were collected on payments. However, the mass planting of flowers on the streets of the city should probably be suspended.
      2. 0
        January 7 2023
        Quote: ximkim
        The West will not leave Ukraine, since a lot of money has been invested there ..

        Well, the West has invested much more in Afghanistan. Already a couple of three trillion US dollars burned there unambiguously. So what? He threw it together with loyal Kabulistani, while arming the Taliban for 85 billion dollars.
        Quote: ximkim
        But, now the West will push the Kremlin to open an internal front (to worsen conditions for Russian citizens).
        You might think before that the West could not eat and did not sleep at night, but kept thinking how to improve conditions for the citizens of Russia. Isn't it funny to you?
    7. 0
      January 7 2023
      The only positive thing that NATO is driving dill to slaughter is that we can fight stupidly on defense for some time. Wars are not won in defense, but it is very possible to exhaust the enemy when he is driven to fortified positions. And when all these marders and bradleys run out, then you can start moving again. Here's another way to bomb Kyiv and the delivery of military equipment and ammunition, and everything will be fine.
      1. 0
        January 7 2023
        "it's possible to deplete the enemy when he is driven to fortified positions very much" ///
        ---
        This is what happens near Artemovsk and Soledar.
        Russia is attacking the fortified positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
      2. -1
        January 7 2023
        Quote: Leader_Barmaleev
        when all these marders and bradleys are over,

        The total declared number of Bradleys and Marders with wheeled tanks is enough to equip one brigade. And I do not think that this technique will reach the Donbass. I think that it will be near Kyiv or near the border with Belarus - from there they are waiting and afraid. There, wheeled tanks will do just fine ... but not in our fields.
      3. 0
        January 7 2023
        Quote: Leader_Barmaleev
        exhaust the enemy when he is driven to fortified positions, you can very much

        Doubtful. And that's why. We are advancing on fortified positions, not they. And the West cannot be won in a war of attrition. The weight categories are not the same.
    8. +2
      January 7 2023
      If the Kremlin does not severely suppress such a development of events, then it is playing on the side of the enemy.
      1. +1
        January 7 2023
        Quote: Viktor fm
        so he plays on the side of the opponent.

        If you judge what is happening by the fruits. That is - by what and how it is done, then you are 100% right.
      2. +3
        January 7 2023
        Quote: Viktor fm
        If the Kremlin does not severely suppress

        So far, the "Kremlin" and "in the cruelest way" are incompatible.
    9. +2
      January 7 2023
      NATO is pushing the Ukrainian army to keep advancing at any cost.

      War to the last ukronatsik ..? Russia accepts the challenge of the Lord ..
      Already threshed 150 thousand .. Denazification is in full swing!
      Russia and the Russian world have no other choice!
      1. -1
        January 7 2023
        Already threshed 150 thousand .. Denazification is in full swing!
        Russia and the Russian world have no other choice!
        There was information that more threshed. There are about 300 thousand missing. Moreover, the data is from Ukrainians, although I don’t remember exactly those living in some Western country.
        1. +1
          January 7 2023
          Quote: Michael0221
          Moreover, the data is from Ukrainians, though I don’t remember exactly those living in some Western country.

          )))
          Shary?
    10. +3
      January 7 2023
      Well, the current package from the US as a whole looks balanced and reasonable:
      50 Bradley
      100 M113 - six months later, they remembered that the United States had thousands of them in storage, otherwise Lithuania began to catch up with them in the supply of M113.
      138 Humvees - again, there will be thousands. It is important that they are able to serve them on the spot, and mobile workshops for the Humvee have already been delivered.
      55 Mrapov - well, in the summer, MaxPro will go.
      18 M109A6 - the best M109 immediately by division. Advanced guidance systems. Possibility of an accurate shot from a short stop. A single battery management system, where howitzers located at different positions cover the selected target.

      70k - 155 mm shells
      36 105 mm light guns, which seem to be completely gone.
      95k - 105 mm shells
      Those Sparrows under Buki. Surely there will be video photos and we will see how they were crossed.
      4,000 - ZUNI! Here is another mystery. Will they be from the cabriolet instead of the S-8? Or from Gantrak? In any case, Zuni will already be a serious arrival (at one time, the Zuni almost took the whole aircraft carrier in one gulp wassat ), not C8 cotton. This is an approximate analogue of C-13.

      New rockets on HIMARS.
      New 120 mm mines, including visible and cluster mines.


      Soon a new meeting of Ramstein. Therefore, we are waiting for European partners to support us. If anything, the Finns are already ready to send Leo2A4 if others send.
      1. 0
        January 7 2023
        This is not enough for a serious war, only to support the pants. Any system that is reb and fire control is very vulnerable, so the Ukrainians do not use them, powerful systems, we immediately cover them, they use only small portable ones. Nurses are only in the cities, from the cabling, just shaking the air is of no use. The humvee is generally useless from artillery, no one will notice a couple of hundred infantry fighting vehicles, and again imaginary invulnerability against artillery. It will go to stabilize the front, but we are not going anywhere anyway.
        1. 0
          January 7 2023
          Quote: alexey_444
          This is not enough for a serious war, only to support pants

          And more than 10 months of SVO - is it not serious for you? OK, let's wait some more.
      2. -1
        January 7 2023
        Quote: donavi49
        4,000 - ZUNI! Here is another riddle

        This is what I didn't understand either. Where were they dug up and why? Ukrainian aviation is not in a position to fire NURSs from a roll-up, and Soviet NURSs do not seem to be in short supply.

        There were reports about 10 years ago that Zuni could be turned into a manager, like Hydra, but there seemed to be nothing like that in relation to Ukraine.
      3. 0
        January 7 2023
        This is what they said. And how much it will actually be - no one knows. Maybe three or five times
    11. -1
      January 7 2023
      Quote from: dmi.pris1
      What forces are we going to take it all to hell? To do this, we need to mobilize everything that we have. This has not yet been observed.

      There is no need to mobilize everything ... it is enough to block all trade routes and liquidate the economy.
      1. +3
        January 7 2023
        Whose economy, the entire Western world? Or do you think we are resisting the economy of Ukraine? For half a year now, the West has been covering all their current needs, this is a separate funding item. And now there are really only enough forces for defense, old stocks of weapons are exhausted, and new ones (judging by my plant) should reach the peak of production (10 times compared to 2021) next year only). Yes, and there is obviously no successful tactic of fighting the enemy yet, so the bet is made to discourage the desire of the ukrolyud to resist. And the possibilities of the West to strengthen the enemy are enormous, aviation, long-range missiles (which, by the way, cover my plant for some unknown reason, built on the border), Aviation and tanks, so the war about the inevitability of which the supreme spokesman told us from the age of 15 turned out to be a matter More serious than to which he was preparing, and it is not in our interests to aggravate this NOW. Everything had to be done near Kyiv, now the tasks are different.
        1. 0
          January 7 2023
          Don't panic. The fact that the war is difficult - so what did you want? The whole west is against us
    12. 0
      January 7 2023
      This is good, I'm more worried that they will go on the defensive on the entire front and we will have to attack, and during the offensive more fighters are lost. It seems that we have agreed with the Americans that nobody needs Ukraine, that we will destroy it together, and Europe will feed the pensioners of Ukraine, the military-industrial complex, finance, specialists, and America itself. This is what it means to be addicted.
    13. -2
      January 7 2023
      Quote from: dmi.pris1
      For!! With two hands. With what forces will we demolish all this to hell? To do this, we need to mobilize everything that we have. This has not yet been observed.

      Our "latecomer" will still have to do it. Unfortunately again too late.
    14. 0
      January 7 2023
      If we wait for the Hochland offensive, I would play number two. Like on the Kursk Bulge. Having operational reserves and sitting in well-equipped positions. Odnova, this whole menagerie is easier to burn from the spot. And not because Ukrainians are afraid of passion, but because they feel sorry for their people

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