One and a half billion dollars is the sum of the following components: 1,1 billion dollars, which Russia will spend on reequipping the Kyrgyz army; 0,2 billion, which it will issue to the needs of the armed forces of Tajikistan; 0,2 billion more - in the form of benefits to Tajiks for the supply of petroleum products. This is done in response to US attempts to oust the Russian Federation in Central Asia.The other day, the chairman of the State Committee on National Security of Tajikistan, Saymumin Yatimov, during the transfer of two border outposts in the Khatlon region in the south of the country call US "a friend and a strategic partner."
The basis for statements about the "friendship" was the fact that the US government has invested more than 4 million dollars in the construction and modernization of military facilities in Tajikistan bordering Afghanistan. The chairman of the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan said:
"Measures such as the construction of outposts provide security not only on the Tajik-Afghan border, but also are of great importance for regional security, including Russia and our European partners."
Therefore, it's time to give an answer. However, experts already warnedthat for Moscow it is a “risky step with difficultly predictable consequences.”
Two hundred million dollars in Tajikistan will be spent on the modernization of the republic’s air defense, as well as on the repair of military equipment. During the recent visit of Vladimir Putin to Dushanbe, an agreement was reached to extend the lease of the 201 Russian military base for 30 years without new payments. As Kommersant found out, another agreement was reached: on providing benefits to Tajikistan for the supply of Russian oil products. The Russian Federation will not charge Tajikistan with fees in an amount that is close to that which Dushanbe requested for the base - about $ 200 million per year.
As for Kyrgyzstan, the source of “Kommersant” in the General Staff of the Russian Federation says that the Russian Defense Ministry by March 2013 of the year should agree with Bishkek on the product range that will be covered by the program. And the first batches of Russian weapons It supposed to be sent to Kyrgyzstan in the summer of 2013 years.
Kyrgyz Army like пишет Almazbek Dzhumashev, is in that condition, which can be briefly said - life “by notions”:
“Any army is a mirror of society. Everything that happens in society, takes place in the army. Corruption, bribery, nationalism, lawlessness, recently swept over Kyrgyzstan, as reflected in the army. It is hard to imagine, but in our army they live not by the rules, but by the rules. Each commander tries to "make money" using his official position. Persons of non-titular nationality under various pretexts are dismissed from subdivisions, in the wording “unreliable”.
Against this background, there is an acute shortage of personnel officers in the units of the Armed Forces. Young people do not want to be officers because of low wages and the lack of prospects for the future. ”
Against this background, there is an acute shortage of personnel officers in the units of the Armed Forces. Young people do not want to be officers because of low wages and the lack of prospects for the future. ”
The analyst talks about the deplorable situation of the Kyrgyz army: its unpreparedness for hostilities; about levies, which are engaged in the staff of the special department, pressing the commanders of the military units to which they are assigned; about the negative impression of service in the army, firmly fixed in the minds of all future draftees; about nationalism.
“It’s hard to call this gathering an army, living by the principle -“ war is nonsense, the main maneuvers, ”concludes Almazbek Dzhumashev.
Как recognized President Atambayev, only the 25 brigade of the special forces "Scorpion" (in the preparation of which NATO participated) meets the modern requirements in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz gunners, for example, are still using 122- and 152-mm howitzers M-30 and D-1 of the 1938 and 1943 model. The Kyrgyz army noticeably lags behind its neighbors in the region.
To say that the Tajik army is armed with the latest military science and technology, is also impossible. In addition, it is not a secret to anyone that, unlike other former Central Asian republics, Tajikistan did not “inherit” Soviet weapons. The Russian Ministry of Defense instead took control of the very 201 motorized rifle division. Throughout 1990, the Tajik army had low discipline; desertion, massive draft evasion became the norm.
At present, the armed forces of Tajikistan are a fairly efficient structure, composed from the ground forces, mobile troops, air defense forces, and the air force (in 2005, the air defense forces and the air force were combined into one branch of the military). The army is equipped mainly with Soviet armaments and military equipment. Therefore, the armed forces of Tajikistan are now experiencing the need to equip units with modern models of weapons and military equipment, creating the necessary material and technical base.
The source of the newspaper "Kommersant" in the Russian government claimsthat, investing in the modernization of the Kyrgyz and Tajik armies, Moscow intends to "strengthen the CSTO potential, taking into account the threats that may arise after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2014 year", and at the same time load the enterprises of the Russian defense industry. Along with this, the publication's interlocutor acknowledges that Russia hopes to prevent the United States from gaining ground in Central Asia.
Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Center, считаетthat, investing huge sums in the rearmament of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, “the Russian Federation goes for broke”:
"It's a risky move with unpredictable consequences. The Russian Federation is not only signing under the support of not the most stable regimes in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but also makes a gesture that will complicate its already problematic relations with Uzbekistan. ”
According to Analysts at Central Asian news services ”, one and a half Moscow billion - this is a contribution to the geopolitical struggle for influence in the region:
"A generous offer is intended to be a convincing argument for abandoning NATO weapons, which members of the organization plan to leave in Central Asian countries after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan."
Indeed, in May of this year, Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement with NATO in Chicago on the transit of non-military and military cargo through its territory by air and ground. The “model” treaties were signed by the Alliance with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. It was also about assistance to the countries of Central Asia in the form of military equipment: the last coalition plans to leave the national armies.
As a result, this situation may arise: the region will be divided into two groups - the first will be Uzbekistan, which will receive NATO equipment and money for the transit of goods, and the second will be Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (they will receive Russian equipment and will refuse NATO).
The fire of the arms race adds fuel to the conflict over water. After all, Russia in the territory of Kyrgyzstan will be building hydropower plants, analysts say, who will have to defend against countries located downstream. But for this and need a Russian military base and new weapons.
Together with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan will probably enter the arms race:
“Supplies of Russian weapons for such a significant amount will force Uzbekistan to arm as well. Naturally, it will be followed by Kazakhstan, which also considers itself the main country in the region. They will prove this by quantifying the money spent, for example, that their military budget was 2 more than all the military budgets in the region combined. ”
Head of the Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan at the Institute of CIS Countries Andrei Grozin saysthat when deciding to invest in the armies of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, "the Americans were the last thing to think about." According to the expert, such a decision in general had to be made "at least a couple of years ago." Grozin explained this opinion with the imminent deterioration of security in the region:
“In 2014 and 2013, the situation in Central Asia in terms of security will only worsen. The Americans, regardless of whether the Democrats or the Republicans win, will pursue a policy of gradually reducing their contingent in Afghanistan, and this in turn will cause an increase in instability in this country, because a variety of extremist organizations and movements will come to the place of the Western presence ".
The analyst notes that the chaos that we will observe in Afghanistan will not be restrained by the borders of this state. It will splash out - and first of all to the north, because Central Asia is a region with fairly weak regimes, which are easy to loosen.
So, thinking about security in Central Asia, Russia is thinking about its own security. The expert adds to the above:
"We allocate money for re-equipment so that these states can defend their own security not only relying on the Russian military bases, but also on their own forces, as any normal states and any normal political regimes should do."
In addition, we are talking about Russia's allies - in the CIS and in the CSTO.
“I think,” says Grozin, “that the decision to extend the long-term presence of Russian military facilities on the territory of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan and on the territory of the Republic of Tajikistan in conjunction with the growth and strengthening of national armies is just a solution that is designed for the future, for many decades to come ... "
Political analyst Roman Larionov считаетthat strengthening the position of Russia in Central Asia is especially important in conditions when another important competitor has intensified in the region - China:
“Any financial assistance to these countries carries a certain risk. But in conditions when the competition between Russia, the USA and China for the Central Asian republics is seriously increasing, I think the risk can be, in principle, justified. But it is necessary to secure guarantees. It is necessary to conclude specific agreements with specific obligations. ”
Contracts, of course, will be. Money without contracts is not given.
Analyst Maria Solovyova sees in the gradual implementation of the Central Asian plans of the Kremlin the road to the Eurasian Union. She is считаетthat the part responsible for Asia is becoming more and more distinct.
“At one time, 10 years ago, Vladimir Putin went to meet George W. Bush, giving the go-ahead to the opening of American bases in Central Asia, now it looks like he is not going to repeat the old mistake, consistently insisting on closing the American base in Kyrgyzstan. Unfortunately, this issue has not yet been resolved with Uzbekistan, and it seems that the Kyrgyz have been able to reach an agreement. However, the time will come and Uzbekistan. ”
Meanwhile, Solovyov notes, the Russian president’s geopolitical ambitions are imputed to him by a part of the country's political elite: after all, you must first solve internal problems and then spend resources on supporting allies (not the most reliable).
“However, such speeches are given by otherworldly slyness: is it really possible to restore order in the house safely, if someone else’s armored equipment crawls with the tracks in the yard?”
Stanislav Ivanov, a well-known expert on the problems of the Near and Middle East, leading researcher at the Center for International Security of the IMEMO RAS, Ph.D. historical sciences, believesthat the main criterion in the actions of the Russian authorities in Central Asia is political calculation: not to give way in the field of military-trade cooperation to the post-Soviet space to competitors from the United States and NATO. But, the scientist wonders, how far-sighted and effective is this logic?
“... After all, one-time handouts and individual decisions to retain a monopoly on military and military-technical cooperation with the countries of Central Asia and to maintain their positions in other areas are unlikely.
The negative experience of such cooperation of the USSR with the countries of Africa, Asia, and the Near and Middle East has not been forgotten. Despite all the attempts of the Soviet leaders, we have lost almost all of our former partners in the MTC ... "
The negative experience of such cooperation of the USSR with the countries of Africa, Asia, and the Near and Middle East has not been forgotten. Despite all the attempts of the Soviet leaders, we have lost almost all of our former partners in the MTC ... "
Will supplies of Russian military property help keep the Central Asian region in the zone of influence of Moscow? Wouldn't this weapon be used in civil wars? These questions are asked by the historian. And one more question, more precisely, speaking, a statement of fact: to compete with the United States in the field of weapons of Russia is becoming increasingly difficult.
After all, the GDP and scientific and technical potential of Russia are clearly losing the US, the expert believes. The science and industry of the Russian Federation cannot compete on equal terms with developed countries.
“... The Russian design bureaus often create samples of weapons and military equipment that have already been tested abroad and entered service. That is, we are behind for 3-5 years or more. No matter how puffed up our defense-industrial complex, it produces mainly obsolete moral products. Even representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense were forced to look for weapons and individual components in the West (French Mistral, Italian all-terrain vehicles, drones, avionics, electronics, etc.). The four-day war with Georgia in August 2008, on the one hand, once again showed the whole world the valor of ordinary Russian soldiers, and on the other, it revealed many shortcomings and gaps in the equipment of the Russian army. In the era of electronic warfare, unmanned aircraft and precision weapons tank "armadas and millions of armies are ineffective, they only represent easy targets for the enemy."
S. Ivanov also notes the low standard of living of the local population (especially Tajikistan), as well as the high level of corruption, cronyism and venality of the authorities at all levels, mass unemployment, poor infrastructure, lack of schools, hospitals, etc., which radicalizes local societies, thereby creating prerequisites for internal armed conflicts.
Therefore, the historian believes, one bare striving to prevent the United States from establishing and developing military-technical cooperation with the post-Soviet states of Central Asia by all means is unproductive. We need an integrated approach based on long-term and mutually beneficial relations with these and other countries of Central Asia. This approach will help preserve and strengthen the position of Russia in the region.
However, let us say, an integrated approach is just being formed: an agreement has been concluded between Russia and Tajikistan to facilitate the migration regime, and Russia will probably participate in the construction of the Kambarata and Rogun hydropower stations. The last Tajiks alone can not be built: it takes three billion dollars.
True, many today equate the question of water in Central Asia with the question of war.
“Water resources can become a problem around which relations in the Central Asian region will worsen,” сказал two months ago Islam Karimov. “Everything can be aggravated so much that it can cause not just a religious confrontation, but war.”
And he said this in Kazakhstan, which also may have problems with water.
Head of Analytical Services of the Association for Cross-Border Cooperation Alexander Sobyanin explained:
“... it should be understood that Nursultan Nazarbayev quickly understood Karimov’s maneuver and nowhere did he support the clause that the question of water is a question of war. From the point of view of global interactions, this was, of course, not accidental. Related to this are 17 visits by American generals to Uzbekistan, who visited the Uzbek capital in October under the Capstone program, as well as visits by the head of the US Transportation Command, General William Fraser III, to Tashkent and Dushanbe, and Putin’s trip to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. This is all much more important than, in fact, the seed that Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will fight seriously. The question of water really cannot lead to war. I, as a regional specialist, can speak firmly. The question of water is a question of political exaltation of inter-country contradictions. ”
According to the expert, there are two most important tasks in Russia today by several proxies of Comrade Putin.
The first is the upcoming merger of the Russian electric power industry in the person of RusHydro, Inter RAO UES and the network holding companies FGC and IDGC and the largest non-state producers of electricity: Irkutstkenergo, Eurosibenergo, Krasnoyarsk Hydroelectric Power Station and Boguchanskaya HPP.
"This is the first step for the addition of a giant international vertically integrated consortium that includes the most diverse generators of electricity - thermal, water, gas - which will grow and the electricity of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan."
And this is the second step. Thus, the expert concludes, Uzbekistan receives an economic challenge from Russia. The control of Moscow over the Kyrgyz and Tajik hydrogeneration will make the Uzbek pressure impossible both on the Rogun issue, on the Kambarata issue, and in general on the issue of water regulation. Karimov, according to Alexander Sobyanin, in response, is trying to prevent the realization of the Russian Eurasian integration economic super-tasks.
So, some analysts see the demarcation of Uzbekistan and Russia, passing parallel to the interests of Washington and Moscow, others point out that, where they say, Uzbekistan will disappear in the framework of the new strategic scenario of the Kremlin. Some experts believe that the Moscow project in Central Asia will not only secure Russia after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, but will also give new impetus to cooperation between Russia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, others doubt the success of Russia's military-technical cooperation with the countries of Central Asia, believing that it will be as unsuccessful as the military cooperation of the USSR, for example, with African countries. But no doubt: the Kremlin’s project has both an economic background (funding for the two armies implies simultaneous loading of the Russian military-industrial complex) and a political one: strengthening in the region. The latter is important - both to achieve security goals and to prevent the United States from turning around in the Central Asian “underbelly”.
Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru