Western expert: It is useful to study the possibility of the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation in the event of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Crimea
One of the hottest topics that has recently been stirring the Western public from top to bottom is whether Russia intends, and under what conditions, to use nuclear weapons. weapon because of the conflict in Ukraine. Despite the fact that Moscow denies such a possibility, referring to the relevant doctrine, Western analysts continue to come up with scenarios in which Russian President Vladimir Putin can still give the command at least to use tactical nuclear weapons.
The author of an article in the military-analytical publication 19FortyFive, Brent Eastwood, discusses whether the situation when the Armed Forces of Ukraine decide one way or another to attack the territory of Crimea can be a reason for Moscow to use low-yield nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, the expert notes that the Ukrainian army does not have the possibility of a large-scale invasion of the peninsula, but Kyiv is capable, especially based on many official statements by government officials, to commit certain provocations of a military nature in Crimea.
The main difficulties for a large-scale offensive deep into Russian territory for the Armed Forces of Ukraine arise in terms of logistics. Even a small-scale airborne or naval operation in Crimea is difficult. As retired Major General of the Australian Army Mick Ryan said in an interview with Defense One, Kyiv does not have the group of troops that is necessary for a landing operation, and they do not have the necessary number of amphibious vehicles.
A land offensive across the five-kilometer-wide Isthmus of Perekop will require powerful artillery preparation and a significant amount of armored vehicles. With all this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine now have significant problems even to carry out effective attacks on the existing line of contact, the author notes.
In such a situation, all that the Kiev command is capable of in the upcoming winter campaign is sabotage on the peninsula and local skirmishes with the Russian army in the territories bordering Crimea. For the Ukrainian authorities, such troubling attacks in the direction of the peninsula, which they consider their occupied territory, are more important not from a military point of view, but as a way to boost their ratings in the eyes of citizens and try to demoralize the Russians.
Will Putin use nuclear weapons if Kyiv commits such provocations?
Eastwood asks.
According to the expert, the Kremlin will weigh all the consequences of using weapons of mass destruction, which will harm not only the enemy, but also pro-Russian citizens in the territory of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv. Due to radioactive fallout, Russian troops would probably lose their combat capability, and Russian-speaking residents would lose their ability to work. The military would have to be provided with equipment that protects against the effects of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
Taking into account the fact that at the moment, and in the near future, the Ukrainian army does not have the necessary resources for a full-scale invasion of Crimea, Moscow is unlikely to decide to respond to the provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine so powerfully. Russia can stop Ukrainian attempts to invade the peninsula without even resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the observer is sure.
But it is still useful to study each scenario, including the scenario of the use of tactical nuclear weapons, since both sides highly value Crimea as a critical strategic territory that requires special attention.
— concludes the author of the article.
It is worth agreeing with the observer that it makes no sense for Russia to use nuclear weapons in any form, especially in the case of local provocations by the Kyiv regime, even when it comes to Crimea. This is not the red line. Moreover, the sabotage on the Kerch bridge showed that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have the opportunity to respond harshly to such sorties in other ways. After all, there are still many "reserves" for delivering high-precision missile strikes in Ukraine, including at central decision-making points. And we still haven’t run out of missiles, and probably won’t run out in the foreseeable future.
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