In the BRICS countries lives 43 The percentage of the world's inhabitants who create 20-25% of global GDP, totaling 13,7 trillion. dollars. Gold reserves of five countries are 4,4 trillion. dollars. Only in 2012, the share of foreign direct investment attributable to BRICS amounted to 11% in the world.
October 17 at a meeting of the commission on military-technical cooperation of Russia with foreign countries Vladimir Putin сказалthat military-technical cooperation of Russia with the BRICS countries and Vietnam should reach a qualitatively new level:
"Given the growing technological, industrial, scientific potential of all the countries listed, military-technical cooperation with these states can and should reach a qualitatively new level."
The president had in mind not only a trade partnership. It was about industrial cooperation, joint research and development, the creation of efficient service and after-sales service systems, and finally, the general entry of the BRICS countries into the markets of third countries. As a final example, the president cited Russian cooperation with India:
“In cooperation with India, as you know, we are not limited to the supply of finished Russian armaments. Conducting joint R & D and licensed production, including for the supply of equipment to other, third countries, is gaining ever greater weight. ”
Co-production would reduce the costs of production, introduce new technologies, rationally build technology transfer from the defense to the civilian sphere.
In the context of the development of relations, BRICS should be reminded that the 2015 year is scheduled for the holding of a BRICS summit in Ufa. On the preparation in this city of two summits - BRICS and SCO - is planned spend 60 billion rubles.
The next BRICS summit, the fifth, will be held in South Africa 27 in March 2013. October 29 in the Russian press reported that the Republic of South Africa intends to offer the heads of five states to locate the headquarters of the planned Development Bank Group in their country. Deputy Minister of International Relations and Cooperation of South Africa Mr. Ibrahim said ITAR-TASS correspondent:
“If the decision to create a bank is made at the summit, then of course, its location will be determined by the leaders of five countries. But I can tell you that we will offer to place this bank in our country. ”
The creation of the BRICS Development Bank, proposed by India, will be the main theme of the forthcoming fifth group summit in Durban. Now preparing a feasibility study of the bank, which will be presented to the leaders of the five countries. The main goal of the bank is to stimulate trade between the BRICS countries. Credits this bank will provide in national currency.
The fifth summit will also discuss the proposal of South African President Jacob Zuma that it is necessary to connect the member countries of the BRICS submarine cable communication system. South Africa has already begun to purchase equipment for laying a submarine cable across the Atlantic Ocean to Brazil. The project is impressive: cable length - 9900 kilometers.
Head of the telecommunications company "eFive" Ros Thomas said:
"The system will provide high-speed communication with the West, and then with the East, with the result that South Africa will become the central hub of this network."
South African analysts Catherine Grant and Peter Draper (Mail and Guardian) declare in this connection: South Africa deserves its place in the group of five countries, and the concept of Mr. J. O'Neill, who invented the four-letter acronym (BRIC) and did not consider that South Africa is economically worthy of joining the "block" . Today, experts note (Draper is a senior researcher, and Catherine Grant is the head of the economic program at the South African Institute of International Affairs), South Africa is a country with a fast-growing economy, a developed middle class, and the country in general is a very promising market. Moreover, South Africa is about to catch up with the notorious developed countries from “G7” - well, or not about that, by the year of 2040. Experts write that South Africa does not yet correspond to this level - well, let's admit that it is moving forward. Consequently, the concept of BRIC as an association of the four countries "must end."
South African analysts do not believe that democratic approaches other than those of G7 may make it difficult for BRICS countries to realize their economic interests. Democracy, according to the authors of the article, is not the basis of economic diplomacy; here the first violin is played by cold economic calculation. And G7 itself was created to manage economic conflicts in the global economy.
For the BRICS countries, the three components of cooperation are particularly relevant.
First, they must take into account different approaches to economic development, including the balance of capitalist forces in relation to the state. Each country can learn lessons, in particular, from the problems of implementing market reforms and from the selected priorities of economic development. At the same time, countries can find out in which areas they can cooperate internationally and determine where they will be able to perform on the international solo market and where in the quintet.
Secondly, they should pay significant attention to trade facilitation. Their respective business communities and forums should use their influence to accelerate trade and investment transactions. At the same time, experts note that five countries do not have long-standing traditional infrastructure links. Therefore, discussion of the overall activities of BRICS in the framework of the upcoming summit and other meetings should focus on eliminating a variety of trade and investment barriers that hinder the strengthening of business ties between the five countries.
Thirdly, member states should continue negotiations on financial cooperation, for example, by means of settlements in national currencies and linking stock exchanges (where this makes sense).
Along with this, South Africa must continue to develop its relations with the rest of the African continent.
As for the “external agenda”, the BRICS countries should continue to firmly focus on global economic governance. In other cases, it is useful to unite with some of the G7 countries, if this will help promote national interests. In other words, pragmatism should be a guideline, not ideology.
Ii. “The challenge of global governance”
Analyst Mario Burkun believesthat the BRICS block is "one of the most influential in today's world." Not without reason, at the G20 summit held in Los Cabos, it was the representatives of BRICS who proposed a new strategy for global economic development, in accordance with which the member countries are restructuring the international financial system.
The first step of the BRICS is to displace the “world jury” associated with the main financial groups of the world. The members of this “jury”, the journalist believes, “arrogated to themselves the role of risk assessors”. It is not surprising, the author writes, that they get the most benefit from exciting reports that can raise or bring down the economies of entire countries. After all, other credit-rating organizations can make subjective decisions that are unconditionally accepted as absolute economic truth.
Once the views of Federal Reserve Chairs - Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke - encouraged speculative investments, but these people lost credibility after the 2008 crisis of the year and the recession that started in 2010.
When now Standard & Poor's, Fitch group, or Moody's once again compare the bond yield of any country with a certain “benchmark in a certain sphere of influence”, a completely man-made economic catastrophe can break out. In itself, a completely objective comparison of bond yields in crisis Greece, Spain and Italy with the indicator of successful Germany already perfectly illustrates this statement.
After all, these reports are in fact based on discriminatory parameters regarding consumption rates, protectionism policies or financial contributions of individual regions, corporations and investors. However, they are taken for the truth.
As for Russia, which recently joined the WTO, the author points out that it is the 9-I largest economy in the world.
“After the exorbitant requirements for membership in the WTO were satisfied, the Russian economy was“ classified ”by current rating organizations as unstable. This is because this estimate did not take into account the expected increase in the price of oil and gas in the medium and long term. Russia's GDP is growing, and there are all signs that this growth will be sustainable. The country's accumulated reserves far exceed the national debt. ”
That is why, in order not to be a “participant” in any man-made financial catastrophe, the BRICS countries need to create their own risk assessment organizations and apply more objective criteria. Own assessments will also allow
“A positive impact on the psychology of private investors due to taking into account a wide range of criteria, in contrast to the practice of creating panic and compulsive behavior in relation to liquid assets with high volatility”.
The BRICS international risk assessment organization, the draft of which will be discussed at the upcoming summit in South Africa, will be able to work out, M. Burkun, a unified opinion that adequately reflects the economic reality. Encouraging productive investments and regulated risks will help avoid sudden changes in expectations in financial markets, which are often sources of recessions and recessions.
In essence, this is nothing more than a challenge to global governance. Exactly считает Aurobindo Mahapatra, author of the article "BRICS lays the foundations for a fair world order."
A fair and honest international order is necessary, according to an Indian expert. Indeed, until other world players begin to orient actions and work towards a multipolar world, diving into chaos will continue. However, it is hoped that the intractability of some powers in this matter will soon be eliminated. This is the “challenge of global governance of the 21st century”. The challenge to which, quite according to Toynbee, must be answered.
Aurobindo Mahapatra singles out the following event as part of the “response”: the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the BRICS countries on September 25 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, which discussed the issue of UN reform and the expansion of the Security Council. Comrade Lavrov reaffirmed Russia's position in supporting the candidacy of India, a member of the BRICS, as a permanent member of the Security Council.
The Charter of the United Nations, the author writes, is based on the normative aspects of international politics and proclaims the equality of all peoples. However, reality proves the opposite: the UN is seen as a chamber where its members express their extreme positions -
"As if they were standing alone on the pedestal of truth, or as on a duel field, where the rivals quarrel with each other."
At the same time, although almost all countries of the world have UN membership, decision making is the privilege of a few. It is here that the line of divergence “between the lofty ideals of this magnificent organization and its real work” passes.
In a changing world, decentralization is important, including economic. Today, BRICS is in favor of expanding power at the global level and is advocating the reform of international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. It has long been necessary not only political decentralization of power, but also economic - at the global level.
Global problems, be it climate change, religious extremism, financial crises that exceed the competence of any single country, can be solved at the international level. But in the absence of agreement among the UN members, the problems mentioned will become more and more frightening every day.
Iii. Half versus third
In order to predict the collapse of the economies of the BRICS countries, in the West they even invented a special economic term: recession. The decline in the annual GDP growth rate, say, on 1 pp gives American and European “experts” a reason for joy. They shout, “Hooray! BRICS is in trouble! ”
Among the reasons for the near catastrophe of the five countries by the critics are called following:
1. BRICS countries are disconnected from the influence of Western economies.
2. All five countries are corroded by corruption, and therefore their political systems are not legitimate.
3. Among the five equal there is one who is "more equal" than others - China. But even there everything is unstable: Bo Xilai is judged, the decisive party congress is approaching, the economy is not growing as fast as before, because in Western Europe there is a recession. Are wages rising in Chinese factories? And this is bad - for Chinese competitiveness.
4. Brazilian growth is particularly fast: in 2010, it exceeded 7,5%, and this year the Brazilian economy is likely to grow by less than 2%.
5. In India, "clinical depression." The growth that exceeded 9% before the financial crisis is now slightly higher than 5%.
6. In Russia - their own problems. Worst of all, Putin returned to the Kremlin: this immediately aroused mass protests in Moscow. And the shale gas revolution in the US? All this is a disaster for Russia: after all, the world price of gas will fall. The Putin system will not have money.
So says Gideon Rackman, columnist Financial Times.
Meanwhile, American financial expert Kim Hayward is much more cautious in his statements - and speaks much more about economics than politics. AT Financial Times blog he explicitly indicates that now
“Two-thirds of financial directors are planning foreign expansion in the BRIC countries, the USA, the UK and Germany. And when it comes to BRICS, almost half of the surveyed financial directors are already investing or planning to enter these markets - compared to only three out of ten in the 2011 year. ”
The data was obtained by an expert based on a survey of more than 1000 financial directors from medium-sized companies operating in the 14 markets.
Comments are superfluous.
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Thus, no matter how frightened investors are, other analysts are returning
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru