MIST - this is not cosmetics
Jim O'Neill from Goldman Sachs got tired of talking about BRICS, which he (in the original form of BRIC) invented 11 years ago, and he created a new acronym: MIST. Although he declared that Brazil, Russia, India and China will grow and grow - right up to the 2050 year (by the way, they did not stop growing), but to investors who in the last year are from BRIC funds drowned away back as much as 15 billion dollars, not bored, brought into circulation four other states: Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, i.e. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey.
Before we go to MIST, it is necessary, so to speak, to wave a BRICS handkerchief. How did comrade O'Neal disappoint five countries, not so long ago, during the reign of our Medvedev, who rallied, one might say, into a partner bloc?
As usual, Western investors, and J. O'Neill with them, frightened the risks of authoritarian systems, which, as in the West is commonly expressed, generate political instability. But what kind of investments are there with political instability? Western capitalists are still ready to fight financial instability — someone is playing for a raise, and someone for a fall, but dealers are giving in to authoritarian politics. And that China, Russia, and India, too, are authoritarian countries, they have no doubt in the West.
The second factor that caused some fears among some investors was the raw material dependence of Russia and Brazil. Here you go! Previously, this very dependence didn’t bother them at all, on the contrary, they cheerfully cheered on those Russian sad guys who wrote about Russia as a raw materials appendage of the West - but now everything has changed exactly the opposite. Ah, Russia! Four fifths of your economy - golimy raw materials. Ah, Brazil, and you - there too! (60% depending on commodity factors).
Yes, and more: in the next 40 years, Russia's population should shrink to 25 millions of people.
Finally, it seems to Comrade O'Neal and other comrades that the BRICS countries have not sufficiently integrated into the world economy. Uh ... What do they want to say? What the West is not firmly stuck to Russia? But Russia has recently joined the WTO. Probably, we are talking about titanium shovels, which the Russians could again begin to take out of their country, integrating very closely with interested agricultural circles.
These are the pies. But Mexico and others like it are on the right track.
First, the share of crude oil in exports from Mexico was reduced from 90% to 10% (well, so Hugo Chavez from Venezuela will soon select ten).
Secondly, South Korea ... And what, in fact, has Comrade O'Neill discovered in South Korea? "Samsung" was there before, and there was the auto industry, and in general we ask you not to confuse Kim Jong-un with the country.
Thirdly, Indonesia’s chief economist at Goldman Sachs took the place of honor in the new “block” because ... it is rich in raw materials. That is, for the fact that Russia and Brazil are criticized and put out for the threshold, Indonesia is brought to the third and honorable place in the new acronym.
Turkey is good because its exports are 20%, and there is a high proportion of manufactured goods. We know these tasteless rags and carpets, fur coats, hastily and poorly sewn and are only suitable for sales, etc. The uncharacteristic, the last, Turkey’s place is given because it has a trade deficit and is constantly dependent on imports. capital.
However, the analyst does not give an exact distribution of places, well, and God bless him. It's not about the places inside the acronym, but where the money will flow. And from now on they will not flow into BRICS. No, not by the decision of J. O'Neill, but at the behest of investors. The chief economist at Goldman Sachs is an excellent analyst and forecaster, not an oracle or a prophet.
The reason for such a change in the interests of investors is a higher return on investment in the MIST countries. Four countries did not originate from scratch or by the whim of O'Neill. Back in February, 2011, the company Goldman Sachs launched the project N-11 Equity Fund. His task was to invest in the economies of eleven developing countries, which include the four countries discussed above. From the beginning of 2012, the fund’s return made 12,0% versus 1,5% for a fund investing in four BRIC countries.
12 percent versus one and a half percent. And "political risks" and so on - this is true for the Internet and economics textbooks.
Analysts count them.that, in particular, Turkey is becoming more attractive to investors every year. Soon, in 10-11 years, Turkey expects to become not only one of the factory centers of the planet, where tens of billions of dollars of direct investment flow, but also become one of the five leading countries in the world in the field of tourism (it is assumed that it will be visit 63 million tourists a year). In addition, Turkey has an advantageous geographical position - Ankara can use its proximity to regional markets. Here you have the Middle East, and Central Asia, and the Balkans, and Russia, and a significant energy market. True, unemployment among young Turks is high - as much as 25%, according to the OECD. But investors do not care about unemployment - they are interested in returns. In addition, the more investments, the more new jobs. Until they get behind the conveyors Robots, But that is another topic.
By the way, in economic terms, Turkey is doing well with Russia. The growth of the economic partnership between Turkey and Russia is impressive: in 2009, the trade turnover amounted to 19,6 billion, and in 2010, 25,3 billion. By the end of 2011, it reached almost 32 billion dollars (an increase of 26% over the previous year). By the end of 2011, Turkish investments in Russia amounted to $ 7 billion, and Russian investments in Turkey - $ 4 billion. Now Russia is building nuclear power plants in Turkey. The cost of the four-reactor project - 20 billion. $. A nuclear power plant will cover 10% of Turkey’s demand for electricity, and Russia Calculates on profits of $ 4 billion per year. In mid-July, Vladimir Putin met with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and following the meeting said on the expected growth in turnover: "With such a dynamic - and we have every chance to keep it - we can soon reach the level of 100 billion dollars a year."
But if Turkey is among the priorities of Western investors, then Russia has faded into the background. J. O'Neill will not deceive. He is engaged in investing money, and one bad economic advice will destroy him as the chief economist of a large company once and for all. O'Neill, by the way, with his abbreviations is so popular that just according to his recommendations, investors invest money in this or that country. The birth of BRIC blessed O'Neill, and he will also become the godfather for MIST.
Moody's, having obviously listened to Goldman Sachs, this month already boosted Indonesia's credit rating up to a 13-year high of Ba1. This is just one step below the investment level of Brazil and India.
Turkey is also in the ratings in general incredibly broke away from Russia: if five years ago the World Bank put Russia and Turkey are next in the “Doing Business” rating, today in this rating Turkey stands on 20 positions higher than it was then, and Russia - on 24 steps lower.
If we talk about the political consolidation of Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico and South Korea (as opposed to the BRICS countries), then the possibility is one in question. However, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, making his predictions, does not think about politics. His task is to identify where the "warmer" investments.
So do not be surprised if henceforth the countries of the world will start competing to get into the next "acronym" of O'Neill.
Before we go to MIST, it is necessary, so to speak, to wave a BRICS handkerchief. How did comrade O'Neal disappoint five countries, not so long ago, during the reign of our Medvedev, who rallied, one might say, into a partner bloc?
As usual, Western investors, and J. O'Neill with them, frightened the risks of authoritarian systems, which, as in the West is commonly expressed, generate political instability. But what kind of investments are there with political instability? Western capitalists are still ready to fight financial instability — someone is playing for a raise, and someone for a fall, but dealers are giving in to authoritarian politics. And that China, Russia, and India, too, are authoritarian countries, they have no doubt in the West.
The second factor that caused some fears among some investors was the raw material dependence of Russia and Brazil. Here you go! Previously, this very dependence didn’t bother them at all, on the contrary, they cheerfully cheered on those Russian sad guys who wrote about Russia as a raw materials appendage of the West - but now everything has changed exactly the opposite. Ah, Russia! Four fifths of your economy - golimy raw materials. Ah, Brazil, and you - there too! (60% depending on commodity factors).
Yes, and more: in the next 40 years, Russia's population should shrink to 25 millions of people.
Finally, it seems to Comrade O'Neal and other comrades that the BRICS countries have not sufficiently integrated into the world economy. Uh ... What do they want to say? What the West is not firmly stuck to Russia? But Russia has recently joined the WTO. Probably, we are talking about titanium shovels, which the Russians could again begin to take out of their country, integrating very closely with interested agricultural circles.
These are the pies. But Mexico and others like it are on the right track.
First, the share of crude oil in exports from Mexico was reduced from 90% to 10% (well, so Hugo Chavez from Venezuela will soon select ten).
Secondly, South Korea ... And what, in fact, has Comrade O'Neill discovered in South Korea? "Samsung" was there before, and there was the auto industry, and in general we ask you not to confuse Kim Jong-un with the country.
Thirdly, Indonesia’s chief economist at Goldman Sachs took the place of honor in the new “block” because ... it is rich in raw materials. That is, for the fact that Russia and Brazil are criticized and put out for the threshold, Indonesia is brought to the third and honorable place in the new acronym.
Turkey is good because its exports are 20%, and there is a high proportion of manufactured goods. We know these tasteless rags and carpets, fur coats, hastily and poorly sewn and are only suitable for sales, etc. The uncharacteristic, the last, Turkey’s place is given because it has a trade deficit and is constantly dependent on imports. capital.
However, the analyst does not give an exact distribution of places, well, and God bless him. It's not about the places inside the acronym, but where the money will flow. And from now on they will not flow into BRICS. No, not by the decision of J. O'Neill, but at the behest of investors. The chief economist at Goldman Sachs is an excellent analyst and forecaster, not an oracle or a prophet.
The reason for such a change in the interests of investors is a higher return on investment in the MIST countries. Four countries did not originate from scratch or by the whim of O'Neill. Back in February, 2011, the company Goldman Sachs launched the project N-11 Equity Fund. His task was to invest in the economies of eleven developing countries, which include the four countries discussed above. From the beginning of 2012, the fund’s return made 12,0% versus 1,5% for a fund investing in four BRIC countries.
12 percent versus one and a half percent. And "political risks" and so on - this is true for the Internet and economics textbooks.
Analysts count them.that, in particular, Turkey is becoming more attractive to investors every year. Soon, in 10-11 years, Turkey expects to become not only one of the factory centers of the planet, where tens of billions of dollars of direct investment flow, but also become one of the five leading countries in the world in the field of tourism (it is assumed that it will be visit 63 million tourists a year). In addition, Turkey has an advantageous geographical position - Ankara can use its proximity to regional markets. Here you have the Middle East, and Central Asia, and the Balkans, and Russia, and a significant energy market. True, unemployment among young Turks is high - as much as 25%, according to the OECD. But investors do not care about unemployment - they are interested in returns. In addition, the more investments, the more new jobs. Until they get behind the conveyors Robots, But that is another topic.
By the way, in economic terms, Turkey is doing well with Russia. The growth of the economic partnership between Turkey and Russia is impressive: in 2009, the trade turnover amounted to 19,6 billion, and in 2010, 25,3 billion. By the end of 2011, it reached almost 32 billion dollars (an increase of 26% over the previous year). By the end of 2011, Turkish investments in Russia amounted to $ 7 billion, and Russian investments in Turkey - $ 4 billion. Now Russia is building nuclear power plants in Turkey. The cost of the four-reactor project - 20 billion. $. A nuclear power plant will cover 10% of Turkey’s demand for electricity, and Russia Calculates on profits of $ 4 billion per year. In mid-July, Vladimir Putin met with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and following the meeting said on the expected growth in turnover: "With such a dynamic - and we have every chance to keep it - we can soon reach the level of 100 billion dollars a year."
But if Turkey is among the priorities of Western investors, then Russia has faded into the background. J. O'Neill will not deceive. He is engaged in investing money, and one bad economic advice will destroy him as the chief economist of a large company once and for all. O'Neill, by the way, with his abbreviations is so popular that just according to his recommendations, investors invest money in this or that country. The birth of BRIC blessed O'Neill, and he will also become the godfather for MIST.
Moody's, having obviously listened to Goldman Sachs, this month already boosted Indonesia's credit rating up to a 13-year high of Ba1. This is just one step below the investment level of Brazil and India.
Turkey is also in the ratings in general incredibly broke away from Russia: if five years ago the World Bank put Russia and Turkey are next in the “Doing Business” rating, today in this rating Turkey stands on 20 positions higher than it was then, and Russia - on 24 steps lower.
If we talk about the political consolidation of Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico and South Korea (as opposed to the BRICS countries), then the possibility is one in question. However, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, making his predictions, does not think about politics. His task is to identify where the "warmer" investments.
So do not be surprised if henceforth the countries of the world will start competing to get into the next "acronym" of O'Neill.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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