Military Review

When will peace come after SVO

58
When will peace come after SVO

The military operation in the adjacent territory is currently running into a positional confrontation.


The prospects and timing of the completion of the special operation are rather unclear.

Probably, I will not be mistaken if I assume that the majority of citizens of our country (and not only ours) are wondering - when will this end? The second equally important question - how will it end?

Optimists will confidently answer that, of course, our victory. Pessimists will probably remain silent.

The only problem is that on the other side of the front, there are also optimists, and they also believe in their victory. And, despite significant losses on the part of the enemy, there are no major changes at the front so far (although they are coming).

Well. Let's try to figure out when and how it can end.

As one wise ancient Greek said:

"The purpose of war is peace."

This is as if obvious.

But in the heat of battle, this is often forgotten. Conflict radicalizes society and thinking. We begin to think exclusively in terms of battles. The format of thinking begins to turn into logic - the main thing is to win, and then at least a flood.

Therefore, the most important task in the course of a special operation is to form an idea of ​​the world. The idea of ​​how we see the world after NWO. What will be its device. How we see our place in this world. What are we doing and what needs to be done so that the special operation ends with this world.

War is a tactic.

The world after the war is a strategy, without a clear understanding of which tactics will turn into an empty grinding of a resource. And ... will lay the foundations for a new mess. Or, God forbid, he will create a world that will be worse than the war itself.

When will it end?


The first option is when one of the parties completely destroys the other. We will not consider this option as unrealistic (guilty - not humanistic). To exterminate, for example, 40 million people on the one hand, or 150 million on the other, is somehow not very good.

The second option is when the parties to the conflict sit down at the negotiating table in order to agree on peace.

Perhaps some of the fellow citizens will now be indignant - what negotiations! Only unconditional surrender!

I will make a reservation right away. Firstly, capitulation is also a form of peace negotiations, and secondly ... About the “secondly” a little later.

When can peace negotiations begin?

Then, when conditions are formed for the parties to the conflict, under which the need for negotiations will become inevitable.

In the optimistic scenario, this will happen when it becomes obvious to the parties to the conflict (all) that the costs of continuing the conflict (current and prospective) exceed the possible benefits of the winner from the continuation of the conflict.

With a pessimistic one - when everything (or one of the parties) exhausts all possibilities for the further continuation of the conflict.

How will the negotiations end?

In the optimistic scenario, finding some consensus among the key parties on the future world order with more or less favorable conditions for them (although some of the non-key ones may suffer).

With a pessimistic one, everything will depend on the degree of criticality of the costs incurred for each of the parties and their ratio. The world will be shifted in favor of the conditionally winner, which is not entirely good, since this is fraught with an attempt at revenge (although not necessarily, everything will depend on the degree of sanity of the winner).

It's kind of a theory.

Let's move on to practice.

One classic once said:

"War is nothing but the continuation of politics, with the involvement of other means."

Another classic noted a little later:

"Politics is the concentrated expression of economics."

Combining these axioms, we come to a simple conclusion: war is the continuation of the economy with the involvement of other means.

Competition for resources - in fact, this is the root cause of the vast majority of military conflicts. It also determines the winner.

Now there are often references and parallels to the experience of the Great Patriotic War. It is ideologically justified. But from the point of view of the decisions being made, this can be fundamentally erroneous.

It's quite funny to read in public accusations against generals fighting on the basis of the concepts of past wars. And simultaneous calls to make decisions in the field of public administration or the economy, based on the experience of 80 years ago. This is despite the fact that the country lived in a fundamentally different socio-economic system. There are, of course, things that are universal for any era and any system, but we are not talking about them.

One misconception is what our victory (hopefully ours) will look like. The picture is drawn in the form of a red flag over Khreshchatyk or over 5th Avenue. But it will probably be a little different.

First of all, consider the parties to the conflict.

Russia Ukraine. It is obvious.

Potentials of the parties as of the beginning of the JWO on February 24, 2022:

Russia: population - 150 million; army - 1,9 million; GDP - $4 billion

Ukraine: population - 40 million; army - 1,2 million; GDP - $588 billion


This can be better represented in the form of a diagram.


The ratio of potentials in favor of Russia. The territory of confrontation is within the state borders.

However, there is still a second layer of confrontation. It does not have the character of a direct military conflict (except for advisers and intelligence). Hopefully, and will not wear. But he is no less dangerous in the current situation.

Let's call it like this: "terra Russia" - "Anglo-Saxon agglomeration" with Europe joined them, led by the United States. Let's call them NATO.

This is a geopolitical confrontation between globally competing forces. First of all, it is carried out on the economic front, and the main task is to eliminate Russia as a competitor. Eliminate not physically - it's quite expensive. And to build it into the global system of division of labor on the rights of subsidiary farming.

Sometimes a war by third parties is also useful here. The calculation is simple - while Russia is at war, it has no time to deal with development issues. It is also obvious for many, but not for everyone (I met such people)!

And here the potentials of the parties are different.

Russia: population - 150 million; army - 1,9 million; GDP - $4 billion

НАТО: population - 930 million; army - more than 5 million; GDP - about 42 billion dollars.



As you can see, now the ratio of potentials is not entirely in favor of Russia. For example, Russia’s defense spending in 2021 amounted to $65,9 billion. According to RBC, only from February 24, 2022 to June 2022, Ukraine received foreign aid worth $75,4 billion.

This is the same "second" to the question of unconditional surrender.

This is without taking into account the resource of Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine is not the side of confrontation here. She is a consumable, whose resources can be mercilessly thrown into the furnace. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian leadership is well paid not to think about it, and the Ukrainian people have not realized this.

Since NWO is now predominantly positional in nature, in fact, this means the mutual grinding of the resource. On our part, mainly (I really hope so) stockpiles of weapons, multiplied by the coefficient of their reproduction. On the other hand, the same reserves plus the human resource of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

With the current intensity of the conflict of human resources, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in theory, may be enough for 6-8 years. Given NATO's arms delivery capabilities and their potential for reproduction, the balance of power looks ambiguous.

Yes. Now a lot and often write about the depletion of stocks of weapons supplied to Ukraine. But don't be fooled by this. It is not only about stocks, but also about the possibilities of reproduction.

For comparison with the experience of the Great Patriotic War, I will give an example.

GDP ratios for 1939:

Countries of the anti-Hitler coalition - 1 billion dollars, including the USSR - 721.

Axis countries - 747 billion dollars, including Germany - 384.


As you can see, the potential difference is somewhat different from the current one.

And there is a third layer of confrontation. He is often completely forgotten about.

It is a global financial capital headquartered in the US and national economies. The same capital is also the master of NATO.

Here, the potentials are difficult to determine, but can be approximately compared in this way:

Russia - the share in international settlements in rubles before the start of the SVO - 0,26%.

Global capital - share in dollar calculations - 43,5%, taking into account the share of the euro - 36,7%, together - 80,2%.


Moreover, it is important that this global capital is also an integral part of the Russian economy itself. And this is a given that must be reckoned with. And this seriously limits our opportunities on our own territory.

Based on this, the periodically proud-sounding thesis that “Russia is at war with all of NATO” is not a reason for pride. Especially not a reason for excuses.

However, this is not a reason for a deliberate admission of defeat!

This is an occasion for a very thoughtful, very balanced and very pragmatic approach..

In fairness, let's say that Russia also has a strategic reserve named Old Man Lukashenko, but it can be activated only in the most extreme case.

There are still third parties in this local-global conflict - this is the rest of the world, while maintaining neutrality and waiting. Some wait sympathetically. Others - weighing and evaluating. They will be for those who will be the winner.

The origins of the conflict


Let us now determine the origins of the conflict.

Having discarded the geopolitical tensions Rus' / West since the time of the king (any), let's look at a retrospective of recent years.

The eve of 2014 was marked by remarkable events - the Sochi Olympics, Russia's right to host the World Cup, Russia's growing popularity in the world.

But the Maidan broke out. The project "Ukraine - anti-Russia" entered the active phase. Task number one is to limit Russia's competitive opportunities in the Black Sea-Mediterranean region and further south. Task number two is to create a hotbed of tension at our borders.

The first threat was stopped by the Crimean spring.

On the second threat, a big strategic mistake was made - troops were not sent to the Donbass. In fairness, we note that this error has become obvious now. At that time, there were justified doubts.

As a result, the project "anti-Russia" has received a qualitative development. Let's give credit to its organizers - they acted competently. The only weak point was the resilience of the people of Donbass.

In principle, the conflict in the smoldering stage could suit the “sponsors of the Maidan”, but it has ceased to pay dividends.

Russia entered Syria and turned the course of the local stories. Also, A. V. Zakharchenko began to cause concern, who began to actively interact with the east of Ukraine, controlled by Kyiv, and gain popularity there. To this were added southern and northern streams, Central Africa, etc.

Having missed the chance of 2014, Russia took the only possible position for it, which is expressed by the thesis - "we do not abandon our own." True, they tried to promote it mainly by administrative means, at the same time trying not to violate the established status quo.

The response stratagem of the NATO masters was, apparently, worked out as follows - the decision to seize the Donbass by force, with the preliminary elimination of its most popular leaders. Perhaps the success of the operation was planned to be consolidated by the appearance of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. weapons, or an imitation of such an appearance (I don’t presume to say, just rumors).

Note. Here it is necessary to make a small remark. All discussions about the current special operation, about what decisions were made, about the plans of the General Staff, etc., are all conjectures and hypotheses. If in some publics they write that they know how it was, or that it was exactly like that, they are godlessly lying. The whole truth about the decisions made is classified as "OV" and will become available to us at best in 75 years. Including the opinion of your humble servant is also a hypothesis. I base my hypothesis only on open sources and the general logic of events.

What did the forceful liquidation of the Russian Donbass give? She put the Russian leadership in a fork of uncontested losing decisions.

The first is to accept the fact. And this meant the collapse of the concept of "we do not abandon our own." As a result, the reputation of a reliable geopolitical guarantor and partner is lost, which means the loss of all those economic preferences that this reputation gave. At least in the short term, Russia was losing the role of a local leader and could only claim the role of a raw material supplier.

The second is to directly get involved in the battle with its inevitable victims and losses, and the most unpleasant thing is with its unpredictability.

The Russian leadership chose a special operation, considering it the lesser of two evils. An attempt was made to solve the problem diplomatically by issuing the so-called "Putin's Ultimatum", but this is rather a sort of last chance to keep the peace.

And then there was a choice: wait until the Armed Forces of Ukraine go to the Donbass, or start first.

In the first case, the advantage was that Russia could try to act as a peacemaker, not an aggressor. The downside is that she might not have had time to do this, and if the version with atomic weapons was true (I emphasize the version), she would not have had the opportunity.

In the second case, the downside was that Russia is one way or another the aggressor, which provides an excellent ideological reason for the "consolidation of the civilized world." The advantage is that, based on the effect of a preemptive strike, there is a chance to seize the initiative.

Alas, the special operation dragged on.

What will be considered our victory in this battle?


No. This is not a red flag on Khreshchatyk. Although, perhaps, it will not be superfluous.

This is on the local Ukrainian agenda - the liquidation of the Anti-Russia project. This means that the territory of Ukraine (partly former) will have at least a guaranteed neutral status.

One of the ways in which this can be achieved is by taking the entire territory under military control. The question arises - what price must be paid in human lives. Perhaps the military has a solution with minimal losses - God forbid.

But this is not enough. It will also be necessary to achieve a non-hostile population of this territory. In this context, the destruction of power plants is a double-edged sword.

It may be objected to me that we will not stand behind the price of victory. But for those who think so, please study the experience of the battle of Ausculum in 279 BC. e. Any victory has a price, exceeding which it turns into defeat.

In addition, let me remind you that, in addition to a local victory in Ukraine, a global victory is needed on the geopolitical front.

What will it express?

Achieving a balance of interests can be considered a victory, in which Russia will be assigned a place that ensures a comfortable and comfortable life. That is, Russia will be able to defend the right to its own resources and defend the right to develop in interaction with the rest of the world that is beneficial to itself..

The US/NATO is a decrepit, weakening, losing its position in the world giant. But it's still a giant.

Moreover, in the Ukrainian conflict, this giant is not only spent, but also earns. For example, a good bonus for the US is the reduction in the competitiveness of its European friends.

Can we plant a red flag on 5th Avenue?

Having reached the Polish-Ukrainian border at the cost of depleting our resources, will we be able to withstand the next blow of this giant at another point? This is to the thesis "we will not stand behind the price."

This other point can be set up anywhere.

For example, in Armenia, it is already maturing.

Or on Bolotnaya Square (and don't think it's incredible).

The wise old Chinese Sun Tzu said:

"It has never happened before that the war lasted for a long time, and this would be beneficial to the state."

The well-being of the population will decrease - the risks of Bolotnaya will increase, and competition with global capital has no clear boundaries. An asset for such events is already being prepared - if you search the Internet, you can find entire courses on "teaching democracy" and "non-violent actions."

Do we have sufficient resources that will allow us to conduct a long operation? Will we be able to over-resource our "partners" (sorry for such a strange term, but it most accurately reflects the essence of protracted conflicts).

The answer to this question is also under the heading "OB", but let's hope so.

However, I do not want hope, but certainty. A war of attrition is a thing that everyone will suffer from. Country-military camp is not the best solution.

War is the continuation of the economy with the involvement of other means. And the most important front for us is economic. If we can ensure social and economic stability, we will win. Moreover, stability is not in the reports of the Central Bank, but in real shopping trips.

Russia in 1917 almost won the First World War on the battlefield, but lost on the economic front.

But what if the price of victory is still too high?

This means that a solution must be sought in another plane - less costly.

I'll try to give a couple of examples. Please do not take it as a guide to action, these are just examples.

For example, you can launch an offensive in a direction that is not expected, say, towards Lvov (this is rather a question for the military).

Or, remembering the main sponsor of the Maidan - to arrange a surprise somewhere in another part of the world - the surprise is not necessarily of a military nature. Better economic. The key task is to sharply increase the costs for the enemy (for the main enemy). General Frost is partly to help us. The provision of military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by NATO should become economically unprofitable for them.

Or, for example, it is possible to organize a change in the government of Ukraine to a more negotiable one and sign a peace treaty with it, while retaining the function of monitoring compliance with the treaty by the Russian army. In this regard, the refusal to storm Kyiv in March may have been a mistake, although the question is ambiguous.

Or, for example, there is such a country as Poland. Now she is not our friend, from the word at all. Moreover, today it is the third most important beneficiary of the Ukrainian conflict, after the United States and Turkey, being, in fact, a commission agent of financial tranches to the Ukrainian budget. But tell any Polish politician the magic phrase "eastern kresy", and perhaps we will get an interested party. She won't be our friend. She will still be our enemy. But she will be interested in negotiations. Despite the biased attitude towards it, Poland, unlike Germany, has its own position. And multidirectional interests in the camp of the enemy are our bonus. By the way, Bandera is also not very popular there.

I hope we have all the necessary resources and clear plans on how to take control of the entire territory of Ukraine, including the “Western region”. But if the resources are not quite all. Maybe we can't give up what we can't keep. But to give it to someone who will be more negotiable than an actor hired to play the role of president. A border with another state, albeit a hostile one, is more stable than a border with a hostile quasi-state.

There are other countries in that camp that you can work with creatively.

There is another promising direction - this is the correct information and explanatory work with the population of Ukraine.

It is simply necessary that the people of Ukraine be clearly aware that the current leadership is leading them to slaughter for the sake of the interests of completely different people. So that they see the prospects for a peaceful and prosperous life not in victory over Russia, but in peace with us.

And for this, Russia also needs to not only fight “until the last Russian”, but also solve the most difficult task - ensuring the socio-economic development of the population in the context of the ongoing conflict. The task is an order of magnitude more difficult than a military victory.
And without solving this problem, there will be no full-fledged victory.

Again, now is the time for a very thoughtful, very measured and very pragmatic approach. Emotionless. And creative.

The main task is to seat the beneficiary of the Ukrainian conflict at the negotiating table, and make him hear and accept our position.

Peace will begin when such negotiations begin. Negotiations with the desire to agree. To do this, it is necessary to increase the costs of the main beneficiary and spend their own as rationally as possible.

A red flag on Khreshchatyk may mark the end of one project, but it does not guarantee peace. And we (the people of Russia) need peace. And not all of them - enough of their own, but on conditions that are comfortable for us.

A sequel may follow...
Author:
58 comments
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  1. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U 1 December 2022 04: 56
    +13
    Ukraine, of course, is not needed as anti-Russia, but after all, even inside Russia there is and is fully operating its own, internal anti-Russia, and it seems that our government is not really fighting it!
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 1 December 2022 05: 36
      +4
      Quote: Vladimir_2U
      own, internal anti-Russia

      That's when it is defeated, then we can talk about the world.
    2. Sahalinets
      Sahalinets 1 December 2022 09: 04
      +20
      Do you mean the people who have been plundering the country for 30 years, ruined the economy, turned us into a raw materials appendage, took huge amounts of money abroad, take bribes and kickbacks, are busy with fraud and window dressing and constantly lie?
      Oh, and WHO IS THIS? And why is the government not fighting them? laughing
      1. AdAstra
        AdAstra 1 December 2022 09: 09
        +9
        Well, they are the power hi "" ""
        1. ammunition
          ammunition 1 December 2022 22: 12
          +3
          Quote from AdAstra
          Well, they are the power

          (+) 100500
    3. paul3390
      paul3390 1 December 2022 09: 23
      +5
      The victory of Russia is the implementation of such transformations within it that will allow it to win in the current sad scenarios ..
      1. Aerodrome
        Aerodrome 1 December 2022 10: 02
        +5
        Quote from AdAstra
        Well, they are the power hi "" ""

        wow... "Captain Obvious"!
        1. AdAstra
          AdAstra 2 December 2022 13: 34
          0
          But the main thing is that the captain laughing hi "" "
    4. Nesvoy
      Nesvoy 1 December 2022 12: 18
      -3
      Or could it be that, as you say, anti-Russia has made its way into power itself?
      1. Vladimir_2U
        Vladimir_2U 1 December 2022 14: 52
        +5
        Quote from Nesvoy
        Or could it be that, as you say, anti-Russia has made its way into power itself?

        Yes, I think that they even consider themselves quite patriots, just stuffing money at the expense of the army, the economy and the social sphere does not seem to look like a direct betrayal, but in fact it is ...
    5. fa2998
      fa2998 4 December 2022 16: 20
      +1
      Quote: Vladimir_2U
      its own, internal anti-Russia is quite effective, and it seems that our government is not really fighting it!

      Quote: Vladimir_2U
      its own, internal anti-Russia is quite effective, and it seems that our government is not really fighting it!

      In my opinion-internal AntiRussia is the POWER! hi
  2. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 1 December 2022 05: 18
    +7
    As one wise ancient Greek said:

    "The purpose of war is peace."

    This is as if obvious.

    What a stupid Greek... it's not at all obvious.
    The goals of the war in Ukraine are completely different for the opposing sides... a whole tangle of irreconcilable economic and, above all, political contradictions has formed here.
    1. For the USA ... the capture of European markets and the expulsion of Russia as a competitor from there ... brilliantly done ...
    2. For NATO ... further advance to the east and gaining the opportunity to deliver the First disarming strike on the Kremlin ... is still being carried out.
    3. For Ukraine... the destruction of the Russian world and everything connected with it... simply the unpunished conduct of the genocide of the Russian people... is still being carried out.
    4. For Europe... the planting of European values ​​​​on this territory and the assimilation of the local population into a mass of LGBT people... who are easy to manipulate... so to speak, to make a battering ram against Russia out of Ukrainians... also done brilliantly.
    Bandera brainwashed Ukrainians hate Russians more than their lives.
    5. For Russia and the Russian people ... the question arose of elementary survival and existence in this world ... they simply want to destroy us and drive us into reservations and take away our resources and territories.
    In this situation, the question inevitably arises whether the current model of the state corresponds to the situation on the external and internal fronts ... if not, then the evolution of the state reorganization will grow as an objective necessity ... otherwise we will not survive.
    I have listed only a small part of the problems for us ... there are many more.
    1. Mavrikiy
      Mavrikiy 1 December 2022 07: 54
      +8
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      What a stupid Greek... it's not at all obvious.
      Yes, but the author's goal is not to search for truth and logic, but to brainwash with liberal values:
      A red flag on Khreshchatyk may mark the end of one project, but it does not guarantee peace. And we (the people of Russia) need peace. And not all - enough of yourbut on comfortable conditions for us.
      Like, there is no need for a Red Flag on Khreshchatyk, but a piece of paper with promises of comfort from the United States. fool They see it that way. (on behalf of the entire people of Russia) request
      1. Zakirov Damir
        Zakirov Damir 1 December 2022 22: 08
        +2
        Quote: Mavrikiy
        Yes, but the author's goal is not to search for truth and logic, but to brainwash with liberal values:

        I was thinking the same thing in my head until I came across your comment. The author did not forget to mention the power plants as something inappropriate means of admonishing the "fraternal people".

        Doesn't this article remind you of the reasoning of liberals regarding the Second World War in terms of what would happen if?
        Maybe Stalin should have looked for and exacerbated the contradictions in the camp of his opponents?
        Or seek an alliance with a potential adversary?
        Or maybe deliver a preemptive strike towards Germany?
        And aren't 26 "pyrrhic victories" that really weren't even close?
        And is the flag over the Reichstag a victory for the USSR in geopolitical terms from the point of view of 1991?
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 1 December 2022 06: 34
    +6
    We can talk about negotiations when there will be complete and unconditional dominance of Russia on the battlefield, when most of the Ukrainian army will be destroyed, and Ukrainian neighbors will seriously take up the return of the former "their" territories. That's when you can talk with the Americans without the presence of the Ukrainian side about peace on our terms and the drawing of new borders. Today it is too early to talk about negotiations, and it is harmful.
  4. Gardamir
    Gardamir 1 December 2022 07: 20
    +16
    They wrote that the author, that the commentators. And let's not mix our desires. with what is happening.
    Russia entered, a week later started peace negotiations. All this went on for about a month. Then the era of gestures of goodwill began .. The Lord received various sanctions. Especially after the start of SVO. Sanctions were lifted from them for gestures. The gentlemen began to form an erroneous opinion that the more they surrender, the more sanctions will be lifted ..
    By the way, an intimate question, since the beginning of the NMD, how many km have the Armed Forces driven away from Donetsk?
    1. kor1vet1974
      kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 09: 08
      +1
      By the way, an intimate question, since the beginning of the NMD, how many km have the Armed Forces driven away from Donetsk?
      Hamers fly, today I heard on the radio. Donetsk, Hamers fired.
      1. Aerodrome
        Aerodrome 1 December 2022 10: 06
        +4
        Quote: kor1vet1974
        By the way, an intimate question, since the beginning of the NMD, how many km have the Armed Forces driven away from Donetsk?
        Hamers fly, today I heard on the radio. Donetsk, Hamers fired.

        Choush Donetsk... Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk are shelled daily.
      2. Third district
        Third district 1 December 2022 13: 43
        +4
        Not only hamers fly there. Conventional artillery can easily get out of Avdiivka.
    2. Nesvoy
      Nesvoy 1 December 2022 12: 21
      +1
      Comrade, take it easy with such statements. And then you are now in tsipso, bots, traitors and others will be branded.
  5. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 1 December 2022 07: 34
    -9
    Military operation in the adjacent territory at the moment buried into positional opposition.
    It is the author who has buried his nose in the figure and sees nothing behind it. There is a figure and there is its quality, which is difficult to assess. fool So our quality is an order of magnitude higher than dill and NATO. angry
    The main task is to seat the beneficiary of the Ukrainian conflict at the negotiating table, and make him hear and accept our position.
    USA at the table, so they and feet on the table. Tradition-s. request
    Peace will begin when such negotiations begin.
    Nonsense. When such negotiations begin, then preparations for war begin, on more favorable starting positions. Only the unconditional surrender of Ukroreykha!
    1. Shark Lover
      Shark Lover 1 December 2022 08: 51
      +1
      Only the unconditional surrender of Ukroreykha!

      What is it like? That's real, how is it ??)))) Burn greenery and accept surrender from the military? So they are not subjects of the word at all. They haven’t been brought to this yet, no one has. there is the entire infrastructure of the ports of England, their loot, throughout this territory, so, lands, houses, slippers, everything is not theirs for a long time. Amers are not very shaved, if they are dipped in a barrel of pig food, then the Americans will applaud, can they play on this? In the 404th, there were 45 Presidents in Berlin (according to the current one), one of them, our other (Eastern and Western Berlin), even the then allies did not really agree, but sat down at the table when they realized that the Fritz Khan was more profitable with us. Maybe even now our conditions are being created, we cannot know this.
      About Ukraine itself, it’s clear here, demolish it to the ground. Did you read in Onufrienko's cart, did Amer write one? The Russian Federation will create a 300-400 kilometer exclusion zone between the advanced us and the rest of them. This territory will be the 16th century, no light, no factories, nothing, gangs with guns. If only something more technologically advanced than a windmill is born in this territory, a rocket will immediately go there. American, huh?
      1. Mavrikiy
        Mavrikiy 1 December 2022 09: 47
        0
        Quote: Shark Lover
        Did you read in Onufrienko's cart, did Amer write one? The Russian Federation will create a 300-400 kilometer exclusion zone between the advanced us and the rest of them.

        Amer, it’s such a dream they have that they can take something other than analysis .... fool 300-400 km, this is not from the ceiling, this is the range of tactical missiles with nuclear weapons. So this is at the moment, and tomorrow 500 km, 600 km, ..... and to Portugal? fool
        1. Aerodrome
          Aerodrome 1 December 2022 10: 10
          -2
          "to the lions" the author also came up with a cool idea. if the eastern ones go back and forth like that, then the western ones hate us fiercely, this is the domain of the Bendera people, and what to do with the population that hates us? Yes, they throw poison into the wells ...
  6. Ryaruav
    Ryaruav 1 December 2022 07: 40
    +11
    With the current government, it is not possible to predict a complete victory in the outskirts
  7. kor1vet1974
    kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 08: 02
    +13
    Russia almost won World War I on the battlefield in 1917
    Yes, yes .. her troops stood near Budapest, Vienna and Berlin .. And Istanbul, ready to fall, almost the entire territory of Turkey, was occupied by Russian troops .. laughing
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 1 December 2022 09: 14
      -7
      Quote: kor1vet1974
      Russia almost won World War I on the battlefield in 1917
      Yes, yes .. her troops stood near Budapest, Vienna and Berlin .. And Istanbul, ready to fall, almost the entire territory of Turkey, was occupied by Russian troops ..

      And the Anglo-Saxons understood that soon Russia would come out on top in the world, so they quickly created the "February Revolution (elite coup), and for insurance they grabbed Austria and Germany and all according to one scenario (manual), and the Ottoman Empire went like a trailer.
      If this were not the case, we would be sitting on the Galata embankment, drinking beer and spitting into the waters of the Bosphorus.
      The Second World War cost Russia huge losses and a sea of ​​blood, but calmed down Europe and became the main violin on its territory, but here without a war, their traitors surrendered their power and now the Anglo-Saxons have achieved their goal, Europe has become their colony and the Europeans have become slaves. This is how the Bosphorus and Istanbul "flew past the company", in addition to the beautiful Vienna and Budapest on the Dunab (Berlin is not worth a damn).
      1. kor1vet1974
        kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 11: 01
        +8
        And the Anglo-Saxons understood that soon Russia would come to the first violin in the world, so they quickly created the "February Revolution (elite putsch)
        An Englishwoman, crap. Like today. Because of her, prices have been rising for 30 years for housing and communal services, food, she is a reptile, she has brought us to the point that we are collecting Moskvich from Chinese parts. It is she who requires our oligarchs to build palaces, yachts, buy sports clubs abroad .. And from the State Duma, to raise the retirement age .. laughing
  8. kor1vet1974
    kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 08: 04
    +2
    The article looks more like an extensive commentary than an article. So all the same? what will end? What are the options, really?
  9. steelmaker
    steelmaker 1 December 2022 08: 36
    -2
    "It will still be necessary to achieve a non-hostile population of this territory."
    "Moskalyaku to Gilyaku" - did they start screaming after 2014? They were brought up for 30 years to hate Russia and Russians. Therefore, we will be hated for a long time, not one generation. And we must be prepared for this and do not repeat the mistakes of Stalin. Enemies cannot be re-educated, enemies must be destroyed! And in the primordially Russian lands, MOV should be banned. As it comes around, so it will respond. And if we start chewing snot again and showing humanity to enemies, then we will wash ourselves with blood.
    1. Andrei Nikolaevich
      Andrei Nikolaevich 4 December 2022 05: 46
      0
      Stalevar, you have already been given a minus. Although, you are correct. And those who, for 30 years, repeated the mantra about the “fraternal people”, were minus, the Brvt people are no longer there. Extinct like a mammoth. .Brothers were our grandfathers who went through the Second World War. When will people finally understand that the citizens of Ukraine and Ukraine are a state and people hostile to us? Reminiscent of a scene from a Soviet film, where on June 21, 1941, the political instructor drives the fighters into thinking that Gmtler will not attack the USSR, since the German proletariat,, will stand up and make a revolution in Gkrmania,,. How long can you self-deceive?
  10. AdAstra
    AdAstra 1 December 2022 09: 08
    +2
    Please explain how Lukashenka's father is a "strategic reserve"?
    1. kor1vet1974
      kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 10: 24
      +3
      what side is Old Lukashenko a "strategic reserve"
      He sees it that way, or rather it seems that way. smile
  11. pleschakovai
    pleschakovai 1 December 2022 09: 46
    -3
    Analyzing the troubles and problems of today in Russia, the world has never been and never will be! The most dangerous internal enemy! We were convinced that the perestroika, the assistant combine operator, the traitor of my Motherland - the USSR Gorbachev, who himself confessed to betrayal, had done! And his antipode Yeltsin? She is also a drunk who sold industry to speculators, enterprising and adventurous people for a penny of vouchers and ruined agriculture! All this Vlasov bastard! The authorities of the EU, the countries of Europe, which were liberated by the Soviet Army from the brown plague, which defeated fascism, their grandchildren and great-granddaughters are taking revenge on Russia! In my opinion, my friends, I DO NOT SEE A FAST WORLD IN THE FUTURE! Placed by Uncle Sam, the EU power in Geyrop is aimed at the collapse of Russia! Away with such unreliable "partners" - away! The trouble came big and for a long time, however! But fascism is no longer wandering around Europe, it is already knocking on the doors of the Russians, this is evidenced by mobilization! The population is rallying, despite the undercover actions of liberals and shitcrats in power structures! Victory will be ours!!! God save and save Russia!!! am am angry angry angry
    1. kor1vet1974
      kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 10: 26
      +3
      The most dangerous internal enemy!
      Is it the capitalists? And not jade, Sicilists and Spudents ..?
    2. AdAstra
      AdAstra 1 December 2022 13: 20
      -1
      Well, they didn’t want, for the most part, liberation from the plague, so they take revenge.
  12. Non-fighter
    Non-fighter 1 December 2022 10: 02
    +5
    And then there was a choice: wait until the Armed Forces of Ukraine go to the Donbass, or start first.

    In the first case, the advantage was that Russia could try to act as a peacemaker, not an aggressor. The downside is that she might not have had time to do this, and if the version with atomic weapons was true (I emphasize the version), she would not have had the opportunity.

    Applying nuclear weapons is like opening Pandora's box. Obviously, radiation will fly into the territory of the Belgorod region. And it will no longer be possible to expose us as the aggressor. Or make a lie about the fact that we used nuclear weapons, but then attacked the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    As for "don't make it". We have been chewing through the defenses for 9 months, at a rate of 10 meters a day. The main argument is that this has been set up there for 8 years !!! Well, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been preparing and building fortified areas for 8 years, but on our part, what was built in 8 years? Nothing, open field? Well, at least a couple of days would be enough? Next, we recall our own teachings. The main component is the rapid transfer of troops across the country, and these tasks have been completed, at least officially. On those maps that I saw, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were planning strikes along the border with us, believing that Russia would not interfere. In fact, the LPR / DPR had to hold out for a day or hours, after which we cut off the shock groups at the very root, arranging boilers.
    Further, on the tasks of the SVO. I read somewhere that the main task of the amers in the NWO is to merge Europe, or rather the EU, to destroy it as a competitor, robbing in their favor. Judging by the news, the problem is solved by more than half. Task number 2 - the weakening of Russia, is also being solved successfully, remember the votes in the UN, we are not so hot with allies.
    So the Americans are successfully solving the main tasks, and we can think about negotiations.
    1. kor1vet1974
      kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 10: 30
      +2
      The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been preparing and building fortified areas for 8 years, and on our part, what has been built in 8 years? Nothing, open field? Well, at least a couple of days would be enough?
      So that’s why they hit it first because nothing was built and they understood that they wouldn’t last even a couple of days. But why they didn’t build it is another question .. To which we are unlikely to get an answer.
  13. Glory1974
    Glory1974 1 December 2022 10: 32
    0
    We were unable to convey our agenda informationally, we were cut off from the Internet in Europe, the Republic of Tatarstan was closed, and the media were limited.
    Accordingly, they became politically aggressors. There are not many military successes. Under these conditions, peace talks are not possible, as we are being told openly. Only military successes can create conditions for negotiations, but the fifth column is trading, hoping for something, although it is clear that they will be deceived as usual.
    The long-term goal of the West, which they also openly talk about, is the dismemberment of Russia into several states. As the prime minister of Poland said: "We do not need either good Russians or bad ones. Let them be no more than 50 million." That is the purpose of the war.
    The war in Ukraine is a continuation of the course towards crushing Russia. They split it into Russia, Ukraine, Belarus. Now they are crushing Ukraine, this will never end, as long as there are carriers of such a paradigm.
    We can defend ourselves, attack, probably there is no political will. Not openly, of course, but by the forces of the special services. An attempt to economically link Russia and the rest of the world, making the war economically unprofitable, does not work. In addition to the economy, there is geopolitics.
    In general, I doubt that our government has a sane plan. Judging by the calls for negotiations, which the whole world sneers at, the last hope remains to reach an agreement with the Americans. Their demands are known in principle: remove Putin from power, withdraw troops, give up Crimea. Have not agreed yet. What will happen next?
    1. kor1vet1974
      kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 11: 04
      +3
      What will happen next?
      It's safe to say it couldn't get better.
  14. solar
    solar 1 December 2022 11: 18
    +10
    The article touches on many interesting aspects, but in some places it’s just some kind of manilovism mixed with rejection of some obvious facts and belief in common misconceptions.
    Since NWO is now predominantly positional in nature, in fact, this means the mutual grinding of the resource.

    Since the summer, it has been of a positional nature in areas where the Russian military are trying to attack. Not a single city has been taken since that time, as the notorious arrestovich said in the summer. But in the areas where the Ukrainian army is trying to attack, the situation is completely different. Almost every month there is some major promotion - Kharkiv, Kherson.
    You can already forget about the attacks on Nikolaev and Odessa.
    On our part, mainly (I really hope so) stockpiles of weapons, multiplied by the coefficient of their reproduction. On the other hand, the same reserves plus the human resource of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    Yes, the military is only dying on one side. Does the author really believe this?
    With the current intensity of the conflict of human resources, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in theory, may be enough for 6-8 years.

    With the current rate of movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and "negative offensives" mixed with "gestures of good will", they will be near Moscow in 8 years. Does the author not see this?
    In fairness, let's say that Russia also has a strategic reserve named Old Man Lukashenko, but it can be activated only in the most extreme case.

    This "strategic reserve" will probably be used only if Russia unambiguously wins on the battlefield. And if not, dad will find a way to explain that "this is not his war."
    Also, A. V. Zakharchenko began to cause concern, who began to actively interact with the east of Ukraine, controlled by Kyiv, and gain popularity there.

    This seems to be an invention of the author, I have not read anything like this before.
    In the second case, the downside was that Russia is one way or another the aggressor, which provides an excellent ideological reason for the "consolidation of the civilized world."

    Not "one way or another", but officially by the decision of the UN General Assembly. What in the eyes of the Western layman (and the authorities in the West take into account the opinion of the layman) is a significant argument to oppose Russia, even if it creates problems for them, they are ready to go for it.
    In the eyes of the layman, Russia is a threat to the ability to do unpredictable actions.
    It’s better not to write about the role of Lavrov’s department in all this at all - forum rules prohibit quoting the country’s chief diplomat, and there are no other assessments. Lost everything possible.
    The advantage is that, based on the effect of a preemptive strike, there is a chance to seize the initiative.

    And what, they intercepted?
    Achieving a balance of interests can be considered a victory, in which Russia will be assigned a place that ensures a comfortable and comfortable life.

    Against the background of the fact that in the West demands were heard loudly for the creation of a special tribunal for Ukraine, similar to the former one for Yugoslavia, the naivety of the author's reasoning is simply amazing. A secure and comfortable life? Well, for some, they can bargain.
    The US/NATO is a decrepit, weakening, losing its position in the world giant. But it's still a giant.
    The author probably does not know how many decades the decrepit West has been falling apart and rotting, but the fact that the dollar is an empty piece of paper appeared on the pages of the Pravda newspaper back in 1951?
    But tell any Polish politician the magic phrase "eastern kresy", and perhaps we will get an interested party.

    The Poles frankly laugh at these statements - so naive and unrealistic for them is the idea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbdividing Ukraine like a kid.
    There is another promising direction... So that they see the prospects for a peaceful and prosperous life not in victory over Russia, but in peace with us.

    And what are these prospects? Maybe Russia was able to build a fair social society with a developed industry and a rich population for the most part?
    Or does the author think that the prosperity of a narrow group of respected Russians, one way or another fattening from a pipe that transports hydrocarbons to the West, somehow stimulates the inhabitants of Ukraine? I generally keep quiet about the shelling of civilian infrastructure, the author probably thinks that this stimulates pro-Russian propaganda.
    And for this, Russia must not only fight “until the last Russian”

    In it, as already the question is worth fighting until the last Russian with Ukraine. A strong result of NWO. What will happen next? :(
    1. kor1vet1974
      kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 11: 29
      +4
      You know, when you read such articles, not only this author, I ask myself the question, are the authors familiar with the Helsinki Accords? Yes, de facto, they have died, but de jure, no one has canceled them .. Russia has declared itself the successor of the USSR .. In addition to them, there are no less interesting international agreements that Russia has already signed ...
      1. solar
        solar 1 December 2022 12: 35
        -1
        Yes, de facto, they rested

        If you are talking about agreements on the inviolability of borders, then I know only one example of their violation officially recognized at the international level - this is Crimea. Yes, there were other border changes, but they did not violate agreements. Agreements are well implemented.
    2. AdAstra
      AdAstra 1 December 2022 13: 24
      +1
      Absolutely +++++++++++++++++++!
    3. Negro
      Negro 2 December 2022 15: 55
      +2
      Quote from solar
      Strong result of CBO

      )))
      At first it seemed that the author was writing something sane. It seems that the author has crept into the idea that the Special Military Operation is going according to plan, of course, but the plan is somehow changing too radically.

      However, then the author left for geopolitics, which he loves here, and the usual rubbish began.
  15. Maks1995
    Maks1995 1 December 2022 11: 35
    +7
    Non-war is a continuation of diplomacy. Said one of the classics.
    If you remember, the Kremlin failed or "as always" all the initiatives that he himself promoted.
    From "no Latin letters in names" to import substitution.
    And diplomacy also failed. Remember the concessions of territories to Japan, Norway, China, the lack of allies now.

    The war also did not go according to the plans. The grandmother with the red flag disappeared somewhere. The declared goals went sideways, but the undeclared ones were fulfilled (this is about accession, which was previously denied in every possible way)

    You can draw the conclusion yourself. It is difficult to imagine that, having optimized everything around for all 30 years, they will not optimize the NWO either. Therefore, everything else is unpredictable. Too often they say one thing and do the opposite. White is black and red is blue...
    1. kor1vet1974
      kor1vet1974 1 December 2022 11: 53
      +6
      The grandmother with the red flag disappeared somewhere.
      Yes, and the red flags have disappeared somewhere ...
  16. vlad2000
    vlad2000 1 December 2022 14: 08
    +3
    well written. that's just a question. who are these WE who ingeniously plan the Maidan in America ....... the capture of Lviv ...... ideologically explain everything to Ukrainians .... agree with Poland ...?)) )) these are the people who, for 20 years at the head of the country, could not prevent Ukraine from leaving to the west in peacetime ...... they could not prepare and provide the army for war and not parades ..... they could not, having the resources, to pull out their population from the poverty of wages of 30 thousand ..?))) are they now brilliantly seeing the light and turning the world upside down in favor of Russia?))) Well, well, most of them have citizenship of other countries and money is more important for them than some kind of Slavic brotherhood and Russian lives. It's time to stop believing in fairy tales.
  17. crack
    crack 1 December 2022 16: 45
    +2
    None of this will bring us closer to understanding the simple fact that war is primarily an attempt to resolve complex contradictions in a simple and, I would even say, primitive way - to set fire to the dwelling of your enemy using boards from your house, and hope that his house will turn out to be more susceptible to fire than their own.
    But in every war, in addition to the parties involved in people or material resources, there is an invisible third party. She doesn't really care who wins. She is also indifferent to how many people will die and how many children will be left orphans and die in the ruins, eating garbage.
    They are not betting on red or black. Their stake is chaos, for only chaos, more than they bring into the world, can make their work less meaningless. The world in any of its incarnations is categorically contraindicated for this force, and only war gives energy to their existence, just as fire gives meaning to firewood.
  18. AG-76
    AG-76 1 December 2022 17: 02
    -1
    The "opposing" side is not independent in the decision about war or peace ...
    Everything is decided for her.
    And the "deciders" still benefit from the war ...
    It will become unprofitable, they will stop supplying, financing and leading the "opposite" side, so the world will quickly come on its own due to the exhaustion of its resources to continue the war ... Well, if only it continues in the form of a war with the gang underground, which again needs to be supplied, financed, managed ..
  19. Quzmi4
    Quzmi4 1 December 2022 18: 00
    +1
    Conspiracy version: AGREEMENT. How fresh and original (sarcasm)!
    The states need an uncompetitive Europe, while China is weakening along the way - losing the European market.
    Bold funding is received by the "beloved and dear" US military-industrial complex. You can forget about the indecent public debt for a while. You can also tighten the nuts more boldly with all sorts of BLM.
    The "Russians" were promised something like "we'll leave a dacha in Miami / on the Cote d'Azur. Probably. If you behave well."
    An indispensable condition: no Russian world, with a guarantee.

    Now look at the events of the last twenty years and try to refute ((((((((((((((((((((((((

    Offtopic, but hard to resist:
  20. Michael
    Michael 2 December 2022 00: 06
    +1
    Let's not boo-ha-ha. The modern Homo population is originally mestizo, and only Sapiens subspecies can be discussed.
    Brad is in the mind, not in the genes. Therefore, what is happening as a whole is simultaneously both an Imperialist and a Civil "war" at the same time. As well as worldview, but this is not accurate. The only thing that greatly pleases is that the conflict does not go beyond intraspecific competition.
  21. ratoborets
    ratoborets 2 December 2022 09: 50
    -1
    Ukraine: population - 40 million; army - 1,2 million; GDP - $588 billion

    That's just at the beginning of 2022, the population of Ukraine was 34.5 million. Minus 6 million refugees to the West, minus 1.5 million with territories passed to Russia. There are 27 million left. If the winter is cold (in terms of electricity / heating / water), then potentially several million more could leave, including men by illegal means.
    After the start of the NWO, and since October, strikes on energy and infrastructure, GDP has dipped by 39%
    Rocket strikes on Ukraine - GDP accelerated the fall to 39%

    If there is no betrayal at the top, when the NWO is carried out on the floor with bumps, if there are no agreements, then Russia is able to successfully complete the NWO by carrying out complete demilitarization and denazification.
    Here is the problem with betrayal at the top and lovers of agreements (how can you call it, if not a betrayal, that the NMD was initially carried out not even at half strength, they felt sorry for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they did not mobilize for almost 7 months, when hundreds of thousands were mobilized in Ukraine, and in 7 months also received good training, weapons from the West came in an endless stream, and tens of thousands were retrained in the West, critical infrastructure and energy were not hit until October, when this should have been done initially, etc.).
  22. Ekaterina2108
    Ekaterina2108 2 December 2022 10: 21
    0
    Dmitry Borisovich Rode, in a chat room, says with confidence that the third world war is coming. Sacred. Scary.
  23. Egor53
    Egor53 2 December 2022 16: 33
    -1
    The purpose of the SVO is the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. And this means that the NWO can end only when there is no Ukraine left. What kind of negotiations can be discussed? You can't talk to something that doesn't exist.
  24. EVGENIY_VLADIMIROVICH
    EVGENIY_VLADIMIROVICH 3 December 2022 18: 28
    0
    The goal of the SVO, denazification and demilitarization, what is achievable when reaching the Polish border? Not a fact, the USSR dealt with the Bederites for many years the field of war. When there will be a clearer goal and understanding of what we want as a result. Attach the territory with almost 40 million anti-Russian population with destroyed infrastructure and housing. Plus 10 million new pensioners, and besides them the wounded, sick and other socially subsidized population. Does the Russian budget need such a financial load? We live under capitalism, where our people are not spoiled by the attention of the state. So the authorities need to decide what and at what price they need as a result of the NWO and what kind of neighbor will border us in the southwest.
  25. yuriy1863
    yuriy1863 4 December 2022 13: 31
    +1
    What will be considered our victory in this battle?

    It remains only to decide who our "ours" are, where they live and what their true goals are. In addition, you need to understand which "ours" are far from ours, but completely "yours" or "theirs". Apparently, ours are in the trenches, and theirs "ours" are on contract arrows.
  26. Oleg Barchev
    Oleg Barchev 5 December 2022 20: 33
    0
    The first - the assertion that problems in the economy led to the defeat of Russia in the First World War - is not true. The main reason for the defeat is the betrayal of close elites and the liberal-minded part of the deputy corps, bought by British intelligence. Secondly, the war on the territory of Ukraine is not going on with the Ukrainian people, but with the Zelensky Nazi regime organized on this territory, which is actually supported by sponsors from the United States and Britain. To say that there may be some kind of negotiations with the "puppet Zelensky", who does not make decisions himself, but only voices what the "curators" said, is the height of naivety. Negotiations are possible only with the financing and decision-making party - with the Americans. The goals of the Americans: 1. Restore the industrial potential of their country (make America great again) by facilitating the migration of European industry to America. Yes, the implementation of the plan will be primarily due to the robbery of Europe and the weakening of the main competitor - China, as well as inflicting heavy losses on the main enemy - Russia (we read the US doctrinal documents, which directly state that the main competitor is China, and the main enemy is Russia). To this end, a strategic plan is being implemented: 1. Provoke an energy crisis in Europe. To this end, political bribery managed to achieve a decision of the Stockholm Court in December 2020 in favor of Poland. The essence of the lawsuit was that Gazprom, using non-market mechanisms, imposed high prices for the supplied gas and secured this in long-term contracts. The court sided with Poland and ordered Gazprom to take into account market spot prices when setting gas prices, which was fixed in new agreements renegotiated in 2021 with European countries. As soon as the contracts were renegotiated on new terms, gas prices began to rise sharply on the spot market, which made it profitable to supply LNG from the United States (the cost of LNG is higher than pipeline gas from Russia). 2. It is necessary to break the economic ties between Russia and Europe, and above all the energy ones. To this end, the curators of the "Ukraine-anti-Russia" project pumped Zelensky's regime with weapons at an accelerated pace, fueling revanchist sentiments. The bet was made even before 2014 on the nationalist views of Western Ukraine. Here it is appropriate to recall the processions of the Ukronazis through the streets of Odessa, Nikolaev, Sevastopol in March-April 1992, but this is not a mistake, already at that time the nationalists felt great and were preparing to become the masters of this country.
    Thus, the growth in gas prices is ensured, it remained to set fire to the fuse of the war, where Russia would be called the aggressor. What happened after numerous provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the border of the DPR and LPR - the SVO began on February 24.02.2022, 1. Russia was called the aggressor, a huge number of sanctions were imposed, and most economic ties were severed. The result of the beginning of the NWO was the unity of Europeans under the banner of the United States in opposition to Russian aggression. A coalition of countries supporting the Zelensky regime was organized, arms supplies, financial assistance, and refugees were accepted on their territory. The "democratic" press was throwing "wood into the fire of confrontation", the EU countries collectively began to fight against everything Russian. Interaction in the economy was collapsing, energy resources were becoming more expensive, gas from Russia became toxic, and the crowning achievement of the struggle was the undermining of the marine part of SP-2 and SP-2800. Thus, a fat cross was put on the possibility of dialogue in the energy sector. Deliveries from Russia have fallen sharply, and it is necessary to fill UGS facilities, and here the United States showed concern for its partners, increasing LNG supplies, replacing Russian gas, but at democratic prices, which were getting higher and higher and reached $ 1 per XNUMX thousand cubic meters . Nothing personal, market pricing in the spot market. Such gas prices led to a sharp increase in electricity prices, which led to a rise in the price of all industrial products. The planned energy crisis has begun.
    I will express my opinion. Both warring parties, both Russia and the Americans, made plans, played out various scenarios, but life made its own adjustments to reality. The Americans, provoking the outbreak of hostilities, provided for many deadly economic sanctions that were supposed to destroy the Russian economy and thereby lead to a quick victory (it is appropriate to recall the blocking of part of Russia's gold reserves of about 340 billion dollars, statements that the dollar is 200, etc.) , but something went wrong and this script didn't work. The Russian leadership apparently also had some kind of scenario that was supposed to lead to a quick victory. I suppose that the plan was to approach Kyiv with troops, and there trained people would make a "palace coup" by demolishing Zelensky. But, something went wrong and this scenario did not work. As a result, both sides made adjustments as they say on the go. The Russian troops, following the results of the negotiations, showed a "gesture of good will" and left 2 previously occupied regions without a fight. Zelensky’s regime, after the first defeats, was brought to life by the efforts of the “curators” and demanded decisive action, several waves of mobilization followed, NATO specialists actively trained the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in general, the flywheel of the war spun with full force. From May to August, there was actually a standing still and was marked by the capture of Mariupol. Undoubtedly a major, significant victory at the end of the victorious impulse of our troops. Then it became clear that with the existing number of Russian troops they could not conduct offensive operations and went on the defensive. In the meantime, the Zelensky regime conducted 4 or 5 waves of mobilization, recruiting an additional 500 people into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the countries of the "Western coalition" organized training, supplies of weapons and ammunition. By September, the Ukrainian army already had a completely different look and capabilities, and the Russian army sat on the defensive, waiting for active actions from the enemy. Active operations began in September, at the beginning of the offensive in the Kherson direction, where they received in full, about 6 thousand killed, then they changed the direction of the blow and attacked in the Kharkov direction, where our front turned out to be bare without a second and third line of defense. As a result of the "regrouping of troops", we leave Kupyansk, Izyum and Krasny - Liman. Such defeats are a failure of the command, no matter what anyone says, but this is a painful defeat of the army command and headquarters. What led to this defeat was the laxity of command, incompetence and underestimation of the enemy, lies in reports to higher authorities. Half-truths very often lead to severe defeats. All together led to heavy defeats and the understanding that a real war had begun.