“Russia is a threat, China is a competitor”: the main theses of the US National Security Strategy
October 12 at the White House website was published The US National Security Strategy (NSS), in which Russia is designated as "an immediate threat to the international order." It is the basic document issued by every American administration that outlines the foreign policy of the United States. Of course, it should be taken into account that there is a public policy, and there is a non-public one, however, after reading this document, one can understand the vector of Washington's policy.
An analysis of this document leads to disappointing conclusions about Washington's plans for Russia. What are these plans and how will the US implement them? We will try to answer this question in this article.
Russia and China in the US National Security Strategy
“The most pressing strategic challenge facing us comes from powers that combine authoritarian rule with a revisionist foreign policy. It is their behavior that challenges international peace and stability... Many undemocratic countries are joining the world's democracies in refusing such behavior. Unfortunately, Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) do not. Russia and China face different tasks. Russia poses a direct threat to a free and open international system, recklessly flouting today the basic laws of the international order, as its war against Ukraine has shown. The PRC, by contrast, is the only competitor with the intention of reshaping the international order, using increasingly economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to achieve this goal.”
- says the text of the document.
The United States thus defines the circle of its most dangerous adversaries - these are Russia and China. However, if China is called a “dangerous competitor”, which has a wide range of opportunities to influence international politics, then Russia, in the imagination of the Americans, is a rather mediocre power that poses a threat, but does not have the same capabilities as China. Actually, in the future, this is directly indicated in the document.
“Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to the regional security order in Europe and is a source of disruption and instability around the world, but it lacks a wide range of PRC capabilities… Russia’s strategic limits have been exposed since the outbreak of the war against Ukraine.”
The National Security Strategy goes on to describe the strategy that the United States intends to use with respect to China.
“Our strategy towards China consists of three points:
1) invest in the foundations of our strength at home—our competitiveness, our innovation, our stability, and our democracy;
2) to coordinate our efforts with our allies and partners, acting with a common goal and in the name of a common cause, and
3) Compete dynamically with China to protect our interests and build our vision for the future.”
1) invest in the foundations of our strength at home—our competitiveness, our innovation, our stability, and our democracy;
2) to coordinate our efforts with our allies and partners, acting with a common goal and in the name of a common cause, and
3) Compete dynamically with China to protect our interests and build our vision for the future.”
That is, Washington means that in order to defeat China, it is necessary first of all to surpass the PRC in the technological, economic, political, military, intelligence and global spheres. It must be admitted that so far the Americans are quite successful in this. Especially when it comes to the political sphere. The recent crisis around Taiwan, which actually ended in favor of the White House, is a clear confirmation of this.
To learn more about how successful the US strategy towards China has been in the past decade, see the article. "The American Strategy for China's Downfall: How to Break the World's Second Economy in One Decade", which was published in the "Military Review" last year. We will move on to the consideration of the American strategy towards Russia.
The United States intends to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine
Speaking of Russian foreign policy, The National Security Strategy notes that
“The Russian government has chosen an imperialist foreign policy to subvert key elements of the international order. This culminated in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in an attempt to overthrow its government and bring it under Russian control.”
This is followed by wording that the United States allegedly tried to establish contacts with Russia in order to determine areas of cooperation, but Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected all these attempts.
“The United States, under successive administrations, has made significant efforts to reach out to Russia to limit our rivalry and identify pragmatic areas of cooperation. President Putin rejected these efforts, and it is now clear that his behavior will not change. Russia now poses a direct and ongoing threat to international peace and stability. This is not about a struggle between the West and Russia. We are talking about the fundamental principles of the UN Charter, to which Russia is a party, in particular, the inadmissibility of acquiring territory through war,”
- noted in the US National Security Strategy.
From this part of the text it clearly follows that Washington does not intend to continue to conduct a dialogue with Vladimir Putin. That is, the United States is betting on a change of power in Russia. This is confirmed by other theses in other parts of the document, where the internal policy of the Russian president is also criticized.
For example, the US National Security Strategy states that
“Russia has a stagnant political system that does not respond to the needs of its people,”
and also that
"The Russian government under President Putin violates the human rights of its citizens, suppresses opposition and shuts down independent media."
The following are the theses that even more clearly indicate this:
“Despite the fact that the Russian government made a strategic miscalculation, it is the Russian people who will determine the future of Russia as a major power capable of once again playing a constructive role in international affairs. The United States will welcome such a future and, in the meantime, will continue to oppose the aggressive actions being taken by the Russian government.”
In this context, the decision of the President of Ukraine Zelensky to refuse negotiations with Vladimir Putin no longer looks strange and reckless - it probably came from Zelensky's American advisers, since it fully fits into the American strategy.
As for the development of the military conflict in Ukraine, the document explicitly states that the goal of the United States is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine.
“We are leading a united, principled and decisive response to the Russian invasion, and we have united the whole world in support of the Ukrainian people. Working with a broad and strong international coalition, we have provided a near-record level of security assistance to provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself. Together with our allies and partners, America is helping to turn Russia's war against Ukraine into a strategic defeat. Across Europe, NATO and the European Union are united in confronting Russia and defending common values. We are holding back strategic sectors of the Russian economy, including defense and aerospace, and we will continue to counter Russian attempts to weaken and destabilize sovereign states.”
The thesis about inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine is not new; it was voiced back in early March by US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who emphasized that, from the US point of view, the ultimate goal of the military conflict in Ukraine is “the strategic defeat of President Vladimir Putin.” Recently, the same thesis was repeated by Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander, who expressed confidence in the possibility of inflicting such a defeat on Russia in Ukraine.
The US National Security Strategy notes that while aspects of strategic approaches will depend on the course and outcome of the military conflict in Ukraine, a number of elements are already clear.
The Americans will, firstly, comprehensively support Ukraine, as well as promote its regional integration with the European Union, secondly, they will strengthen the coalition with allies against Russia, and thirdly, they will respond to Russia's actions, which, according to the White House, threaten key US interests.
“We will take into account that Russia’s conventional military forces are weakened, which is likely to increase Moscow’s dependence on nuclear weapons in its military planning. The United States will not allow Russia or any other power to achieve its goals through the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons.”
- indicated in the document.
In Washington, based on the text of The National Security Strategy, they believe that they have succeeded in isolating Russia, since the military conflict in Ukraine contributed to
"Russia's declining status vis-à-vis China and other Asian powers such as India and Japan, and Moscow's soft power and diplomatic influence has weakened."
Shaping the future world order
Another of the goals of the US National Security Strategy is to deprive Russia of the status of an "energy superpower". These goals are supposed to be achieved as a consequence of the imposition of sanctions and export controls, reducing Europe's dependence on Russian energy resources, and the transition from fossil fuels to environmentally friendly energy sources.
“We have teamed up with allies and partners in Europe and around the world to impose sanctions and export controls that will weaken Russia's ability to fight wars in the future. We are partnering with the European Commission to implement an ambitious plan to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian fossil fuels, strengthen European energy security and achieve common climate goals,”
- says the text of the document.
The US presidential administration does not hide the fact that the goal of the White House is to create a new world order in which they will continue to dominate.
“The world is at a turning point right now. This decade will be decisive in defining the terms of our competition with the PRC, overcoming the acute threat posed by Russia, and in our efforts to address common challenges, in particular climate change, pandemics and economic shocks. If we do not act urgently and creatively, our window of opportunity for shaping the future international order and addressing common challenges will close.”
At the same time, Russia has no place in this future world order as a strong power with its own interests. The National Security Strategy states that the United States will "work" with countries bordering Russia, supporting anti-Russian movements along the entire perimeter of its borders.
“By supporting Ukraine, we will also work to strengthen the stability and resilience of other democracies. We will support the European aspirations of Georgia and Moldova and their commitment to important institutional reforms. We will assist partners in strengthening democratic institutions, the rule of law and economic development in the Western Balkans. We will support diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in the South Caucasus.”
As a conclusion (main conclusions)
Based on the content of the US National Security Strategy, in which China and Russia are named as the main rivals / opponents of Washington, as well as with the outlined plans for Moscow, the following conclusions can be drawn.
First, the United States considers Russia an "aggressor" and Vladimir Putin as a person with whom it is no longer possible to conduct a dialogue. Therefore, the White House will support the enemies of Russia in Europe and along the entire perimeter of the borders, as well as undermine the situation from the inside, waiting for a change of power in the country.
Secondly, the military conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the weakness of Russia, its strategic limitations, so the Americans no longer consider it an equal partner.
Third, the US will continue to build a coalition against Russia and seek its complete isolation. According to Washington, the failures in the military conflict in Ukraine have already lowered the status of the Russian Federation in the eyes of India, China and Japan.
It is worth noting that The National Security Strategy document reflects the position of the US Democratic Party and a significant part of the American establishment. However, the position of the United States in relation to Russia is not monolithic - part of the Republican Party adheres to other approaches in relation to Russia. Donald Trump and Elon Musk are the mouthpieces of this part of the elite who are in favor of a constructive dialogue with Moscow. However, apparently, at the moment they do not have any significant levers of influence on the situation.
In any case, Washington's plans are a direct threat to Russia, and at the moment it is not very clear how exactly Moscow is going to fend off these threats. So far, Russia has not developed a clear doctrine that would indicate what strategy it will follow and how it sees the image of the future. And the existing challenges require this very much.
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