The West is not sure about the unambiguous reaction to the case of Russia's "possible use" of nuclear weapons in Ukraine
The French Agence France-Presse (AFP) spoke with several experts and officials to predict what would happen if Russia suddenly used a nuclear weapon. weapon in Ukraine. The opinions of analysts are divided, as are the possible scenarios for the behavior of the United States and NATO countries in response to the possible use of weapons of mass destruction by the Russian Federation during a special operation.
The West is seriously alarmed by Putin's recent statement that "those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can turn in their direction." And although the Russian president meant precisely retaliatory measures, many Western politicians and experts perceived this as a direct threat of a preventive nuclear strike by the Russian Armed Forces.
At the same time, experts interviewed by AFP are sure that Russia will not use high-yield strategic charges, but may limit itself to strikes with tactical nuclear warheads with a yield of 0,3 to 100 kilotons. But "small" and "limited" are relative terms: the atomic bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 had a devastating effect of only 15 kilotons.
Analysts say Russia's goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb on Ukraine would be to intimidate Kyiv into capitulation and split Western allies. To this end, experts suggest, Moscow could detonate a nuclear weapon high in the air or above the water off the coast of southwestern Ukraine to create an electromagnetic pulse that would disable electronic equipment.
In the worst case, Putin can strike at a military base or a major city. This will lead to mass casualties and possibly the death of the political leadership, experts predict.
How will such events, if they occur, be reacted in the West? There is no definite answer to this question.
The United States and NATO do not want to appear weak in the face of a hidden nuclear threat. But they also want to avoid the war in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, escalating into a much more destructive global nuclear war.
Experts say the West will have no choice but to respond, and that the response must come from the entire NATO bloc, not just the US.
Any response must ensure that Putin's military position is not improved by such a strike, and that his political, economic and personal standing suffers as a result.
John Wolfsthal, a former White House nuclear policy expert, says.
At the same time, the response actions of the West themselves can follow several alternative scenarios.
The United States has deployed about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries and may respond in kind against Russian troops. According to Matthew Kronig of the Atlantic Council, this would show determination and remind Moscow of the dangers of its actions. But such a move "could provoke Russian nuclear retaliation, raising the risk of a larger nuclear exchange and further humanitarian catastrophe." Not all NATO countries can agree to this, which will lead to a split within the alliance.
Experts believe that it would be more effective to respond to a Russian nuclear attack in the usual military or diplomatic way, providing Ukraine with more lethal weapons to attack Russia directly. In particular, modern combat aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, as well as ATACMS long-range missiles.
Russia's use of nuclear weapons could provide an opportunity to convince countries that have so far resisted, such as India and possibly even China, to participate in the escalation of sanctions.
suggests Kronig.
In any case, Western analysts are sure that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, the West will remove all restrictions in supporting Ukraine. At the same time, for some reason, the question of what kind of support for Ukraine as a state can be discussed at all, if Western experts themselves allegedly declare a possible nuclear strike on Ukraine as such? Where and to whom are they going to put their missiles, planes, etc. after a hypothetical nuclear strike?..
I would like to ask Western wise men who love to talk about a nuclear catastrophe and other gloomy scenarios for the death of the world: are they not afraid that by removing restrictions on the militarization of the Kyiv regime, the West will provoke a global world war? This scenario is more real today than the hypothetical use of Russian nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Information