ISW: There is no evidence that the explosions at the airfield in Crimea were the result of strikes from Ukraine

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Experts from the American analytical center "Institute for the Study of Military Conflicts" issued their opinion on the explosions at the Russian ammunition depot in the Crimea at the Saki military airfield near the resort village of Novofedorovka. In their opinion, there is no evidence that the explosion of ammunition occurred as a result of a strike from Ukraine.

Russia did not blame Ukraine for them, and Ukraine did not take responsibility for them

- American military experts stated, thereby indirectly confirming the version of the reason for the explosions of the Russian side.



According to analysts, Kyiv simply does not have strike installations capable of inflicting rocket attacks at such a distance. The ISW rejected the version that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this case used an American operational-tactical missile system with ATACMS missiles, since “there are no such systems” in the arsenal of the Ukrainian army.

At the same time, the experts could not resist putting forward a hypothesis of how Ukraine, in theory, would be able to modernize existing systems to work over long distances. The ISW report speculates that Kyiv may have modified its Neptune anti-ship missiles to hit the base at a distance of 280 km. As an example, information is given that the Russians have already carried out a similar modernization with their anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, “but at present there is no evidence to support this hypothesis.”

Advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak also denied the involvement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the explosions in Crimea.

Of course not. What are we doing here? These are, perhaps, compensatory mechanisms for ineffective management within the armed forces of the Russian Federation

- he declared.

At the same time, Podolyak did not fail to develop his conspiracy theory in the style of jingoistic patriotism. He suggested that people “from the partisan movement that is gaining momentum” in Crimea could be involved in the explosions at the Russian base.

Could it be? Of course, because the people who lived in the occupation understand that the time of the occupation is ending and you need to show your position. This is because the return of Crimea must be

- returned to the usual rhetoric about the inevitable "liberation" of the Crimea Podolyak.

Earlier, immediately after the explosions, Podolyak stated that “the demilitarization of Crimea” was taking place and “everything is just beginning.” Thus, the representative of the OPU indirectly confirmed that Kyiv is implementing the tactics of sabotage and terrorist activities on the territory of Russia. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities do not officially confirm that their law enforcement agencies are organizing terrorist actions on the territory of the Russian Federation. Apparently, even the Zelensky regime fears that such confessions may be perceived ambiguously in international circles, including in the West.

In the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation the cause of the explosion aviation ammunition at the Saki airfield, located in the Novofedorovka region in Crimea, was called a violation of fire safety requirements. After the incident, the head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, announced that in order to ensure the security and anti-terrorist protection of the Republic of Crimea and its citizens, from 20:9 on August 20 to 24:XNUMX on August XNUMX, a high ("yellow") level of terrorist threat will operate on the peninsula.
48 comments
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  1. +8
    10 August 2022 11: 05
    Why press service in the Moscow Region? In addition to dubious briefings of information 0. Because of this, it is only easier for unfriendly countries to work with public opinion in the Russian Federation.
    1. +1
      10 August 2022 11: 49
      Quote: Trapp1st
      Why press service in the Moscow Region? Other than dubious information briefings 0.
      I am forced to support this thesis, although I do not want to, it is very disappointing. If this service had presented the information, albeit not immediately, but an hour after the incident, but it would have sounded at least "... as a result of the preliminary investigation, it was found out that the facts are as follows: 1. ...; 2. ...; 3. ..." that would be both correct and would not allow our enemies to interpret everything as they want, as we do with you, friends, in this chat. The only fact is that this, as many have said, plays into the hands of our enemies.
      1. +3
        10 August 2022 12: 32
        Approximately also Ze-clown spoke about the death of border guards on about. Serpentine. In order to give out truthful and objective information, verification and facts are needed, and an hour is not enough here .... And a simple statement of the event of officials will give rise to even more questions among the population ....
        1. +1
          10 August 2022 13: 09
          Quote from uprun
          In order to give out truthful and objective information, verification and facts are needed, and an hour is not enough here ....
          That is why I designated the actions with the words "preliminary investigation", for which an initial examination is sufficient, on the basis of which further investigative actions are built, and the results of the preliminary investigation are announced in the media space.
          Quote from uprun
          Approximately the Ze-clown also spoke about the death of border guards on about. Serpentine.
          So much has been said about him that it would not hurt to clarify what kind of bullshit Ze are you talking about? If only about the death, then the video of the blood-warriors appeared almost immediately after their capture, but this did not stop the endless posting of stupid swearing in the square, including the swearing on billboards.
          1. +3
            10 August 2022 13: 21
            "... for which an initial examination is sufficient, on the basis of which further investigative actions are built, ..."
            ****************************************************************************
            Only ANY "primary" inspection, in case of a fire, or, ALL THE MORE, an explosion at (a) fuel and lubricant storage and a power supply unit, YOU can carry out ONLY AFTER the fire is extinguished. Measures have been taken to prevent re-ignition. And in the BP warehouse, with the measures taken to prevent further explosions of the remaining BP or ammunition ...

            And it will take you far from "an hour". And for an "hour" the operational Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, in SIMILAR CASES, will only receive information from the "subordinates", double-check both the Ministry of Defense, and the General Staff will report on the FACT ...
            1. 0
              10 August 2022 14: 10
              Quote: ABC-schütze
              Only ANY "primary" inspection, in case of a fire, or, ALL THE MORE, an explosion at (a) fuel and lubricant storage and a power supply unit, YOU can carry out ONLY AFTER the fire is extinguished. Measures have been taken to prevent re-ignition.
              Why do you write such things that any more or less thinking person knows about, and even more so highlight the words? smile Personally, I was not going to conduct either an inspection or an investigation at all - I served my own. Read what the term "preliminary investigation" means, and the fire was extinguished even before the authorities (Aksenov) arrived at the scene, and firefighters recorded the situation immediately after the extinguishment. hi
              1. 0
                10 August 2022 20: 32
                I write such things only to share my doubts. In particular, in the fact that the "preliminary investigation" you mentioned, conducted by the structures of the Russian Ministry of Defense, to which the press service of the Ministry of Defense "should refer", can be carried out, as you wrote, "in an HOUR after what happened" ...

                I believe that the firefighters "put out the fire" and, especially Aksyonov, arrived "at the clearing" in Saki, a little more than after "an hour" ...
                1. 0
                  10 August 2022 20: 47
                  Quote: ABC-schütze
                  I believe that the firefighters "put out the fire" and, especially Aksyonov, arrived "at the clearing" in Saki, a little more than after "an hour" ...

                  You cling to the little things, missing the main point of my post. Yes, they arrived after a much longer time, but our Ministry of Defense also issued information about the fact under discussion much later than all conceivable dates, in my post it was about this - late and incorrect submission of information that should be submitted immediately!
                  1. 0
                    11 August 2022 10: 19
                    "You cling to trifles, missing the main point of my post ...."
                    ****************************************************************************
                    Yes, I do not "cling" to "little things". And to me, personally, your main idea is quite clear.

                    It's just that a layman watching TV series "about the war" and "about special forces", having read "in an hour", will SO UNDERSTAND that, that in SUCH CASES, "in an hour" it may already be "BASIC clear". And it's not like that...
                    1. 0
                      11 August 2022 12: 18
                      Quote: ABC-schütze
                      "In an hour" it may already be "MASTERLY clear." And it's not like that...

                      You did not understand again, colleague! We are talking about informing our MO as a whole! The nuances are not important here, it is important what, what, how and when they say. As a rule, this is much later than all the media, I am completely silent about the posts, not exhaustively, and sometimes about nothing at all. An example of this is the tragedy with the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, there is no brighter example!
    2. +2
      10 August 2022 12: 49
      I believe that the press service of ANY federal department, especially the Moscow Region, simply cannot work "in the mode" of a "free" news agency - "online". By definition...

      The press service of the Ministry of Defense gives reports "on the basis of the results." Night, day, daily, weekly, etc. In addition, not "bare information", BUT HOW IT IS REQUIRED to work in the conditions of the database, information with a PURPOSE to "ours" and "them", the corresponding propaganda orientation ...
      1. +3
        10 August 2022 12: 53
        By the way, the information I have already mentioned about the explosions in the warehouse of the BP of the Ministry of Internal Affairs near Berlin, the federal authorities of Vaterland, also by no means announced "this moment" ...

        An inhabitant of the Vaterland, frightened by the noise and the fire, somehow "quickly" began to throw out his "videos" on the Web ...

        With "comments"...
  2. +5
    10 August 2022 11: 09
    Whether through negligence, the DRG, they fired a rocket, in any case, the explosion of aviation ammunition at the Saki airfield played into the hands of Ukraine.
    1. 0
      10 August 2022 11: 45
      Or maybe a small quadcopter, made in China, but with a pro-Ukrainian owner, dropped a grenade, or dived himself from the C-4. Why was the naval parade canceled in Sevastopol? That's right, from the probability of the appearance of the same quadrocopter. Can be accepted as version.
      1. +2
        10 August 2022 12: 17
        At such a distance (280 km.) "a small quadrocopter, made in China" will not fly
        1. +1
          10 August 2022 12: 40
          Quote: Sergey Tankist
          At such a distance (280 km.) "a small quadrocopter, made in China" will not fly

          And he could take off from the beach, for example. Yes, not alone. You never know how vacationers have fun! And no one really "herds" them there. Well, as an option.
        2. +1
          10 August 2022 13: 00
          Quote: Sergey Tankist
          At such a distance (280 km.) "a small quadrocopter, made in China" will not fly

          Have you tried thinking? He wrote about the fact that in Sevastopol on July 31 there was an explosion of a drone in front of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, do you think he also flew from Ukraine?
    2. -1
      10 August 2022 16: 39
      If this is a violation of fire safety, then why did they declare a high level of terrorist threat? I have vague doubts...
  3. +3
    10 August 2022 11: 10
    In general, it is clear that nothing is clear.
    Even if these were missile or other strikes, the Russian Defense Ministry will deny them - otherwise this is an admission of the failure of air defense.
    But the partisan movement, oh, how inconvenient version - it turns out that not everyone was for the annexation of Crimea.
    Hence the conclusion - a combination of circumstances when handling ammunition. Minor facts (simultaneous two explosions) will be hushed up. After some time, they will show a repaired airfield with several "surviving" aircraft, as confirmation of "no losses".
    That's all I wanted to say.
    1. +2
      10 August 2022 12: 07
      Good version. The only question is whether the Americans will publish satellite photographs taken after the explosion.
      1. +1
        10 August 2022 12: 27
        In this case, we always have "heavy artillery" in the person of Maria Zakharova in reserve.
        She aptly calls all such photo / video materials with the imported word "Fake"!)
        1. 0
          10 August 2022 23: 11



          These pictures are already there, recently published
  4. +1
    10 August 2022 11: 13
    Well, Podolyak is a "good" source, especially about the counter-offensive, it turned out notably, it reminded me of a Soviet film about Aladdin, when there was an adviser wink the shah explained to him about not dreaming and about dreaming.
  5. 0
    10 August 2022 11: 21
    This explosion is in the hands of Kyiv, now with Bankova they will constantly hint that they are partisans, patriots, or the MTR of Ukraine, but they will not directly recognize it, they will generally let in fog. And ours is not profitable because if this is not a violation of the PTB, then an unequivocal failure of either air defense or special services. So whoever wants what he will believe in, and give his arguments and arguments.
    1. +2
      10 August 2022 12: 20
      Just in case...

      Two days ago, near Berlin, the Ministry of Internal Affairs ammunition depot was "torn" ...

      They blocked the highway, evacuated the residents of the "nearby", and for a COUPLE OF DAYS, they could not, having adjusted the armored vehicles, proceed to "extinguish and eliminate the consequences", due to "continuous explosions" ...

      The same thing, three days ago, already "overseas". In Cuba...

      So "in Kyiv" they can boringly bazaar about anything. But, "perforated" by the Russian Dagger, the inhabitants of the buried air force command post near Vinnitsa, the Bandera-Nazis can no longer be returned. And there, as I believe, not only "Ukrainians" could be ...
  6. -6
    10 August 2022 11: 23
    Throwing cigarette butts is exactly the same element of hybrid warfare as PMCs, allowing the parties to do a little more than what is allowed, but at the same time control the escalation and not increase the degree more than necessary and save room for maneuver.
  7. 0
    10 August 2022 11: 30
    ISW: There is no evidence that the explosions at the airfield in Crimea were the result of strikes from Ukraine
    . If you think about it... it doesn't matter why it happened!!! For us, the only thing that matters is WHY IT WAS NOT PREVENTED!!! Those who are responsible, who should do it!!!
    Any catastrophe, these are specific people who are responsible for ensuring that this does not happen!
    1. +2
      10 August 2022 12: 30
      So it is "people" that is the source, IN ALL SUCH cases.

      Relax, in the absence of continuous (and informal ...) control ...

      “Didn’t notice”, “didn’t expect”, “got out for a second”, “small” violations of the requirements of the Charters and instructions. etc...

      "In the warehouse" BP "exploded". And no work was carried out there?.. And the number of involved instructions corresponded?..

      Did he EVERYONE, to the team, "smoke" for a break? .. Or, "in turn", among themselves "agreeing"? ..

      I dragged a "couple of nurses" from one rack, closer to the doors, before shipment. I stumbled, here you have TWO simultaneous DEFEATS, of some kind of explosive, object, substance, etc. WITH VISUALLY SIMULTANEOUS "looking from the side" explosions ...
      1. +1
        10 August 2022 14: 04
        A boy studied with us, his father was a military engineer, he himself became a miner. Showed off and lit a cigarette from a loan (?) I'm not a miner, the girl's face was burned, she's blind, she's a fool herself, her father shot himself, and her mother lives with a blind girl
        1. 0
          10 August 2022 20: 59
          Unfortunately things like this happen...

          Offhand, I could give five or six. And this is with my modest, in comparison with the majority of those present, "service experience" ...

          The cordon is removed after firing. An armored personnel carrier (still "open" old man) "takes" the last sentry. All others are already in it. And this last one (it was summer, the weather was beautiful...), from two or three hours of "nothing doing", he was picking "mushrooms - berries".
          Found... a German offensive grenade. Literally before the arrival of the armored personnel carrier. It's clear, he began to "study" it after he got into the armored personnel carrier. It's good that he was sitting on the edge. Opposite him, no one was sitting.

          Neighbors "on the left - on the right" were beaten with shrapnel in their legs. We spent a couple of weeks in the hospital.

          The "researcher" himself had his head blown off. Without which, he "managed to jump out," as the Red Army soldier who was nearby reported "crazy" ... Rather, he was simply "carried away" by an explosive wave, because he held a grenade at his stomach, "bending" over it. Those. wave and most of the fragments, "took over" ...

          Alas, stupidity, Charters are not "treated". Although here, there should have been a "senior" who was watching the landing, disembarkation of a l / s in an armored personnel carrier ... He was ...

          But the whole "observation" was reduced, approximately, to a brief one - "f-blow faster." And then "our expense" (left by the guard in the soldier's canteen) is "cut down" ...
          1. 0
            11 August 2022 16: 11
            Spooky story
      2. +1
        10 August 2022 15: 16
        Instructions, statutes, safety regulations and so on and so forth are written in blood!!!
        Unfortunately, more than once I had to see what neglect of them leads to ....
        Everything ends sadly, as usual.
  8. 0
    10 August 2022 11: 35
    Russia did not blame Ukraine for them, and Ukraine did not take responsibility for them
    Russia has no habit of blaming anyone without iron evidence. Ukraine really did not directly take responsibility, but according to the statements of individuals, you understand that they so want to be involved in this. And what kind of festivities in Ukrainian social networks - did they finally "win". So it turns out that often the negligence of some plays into the hands of others. Do not dismiss safety precautions when carrying out work.
  9. 0
    10 August 2022 11: 41
    With such comments, the Americans want to absolve themselves of responsibility for complicity. Photos of Russian objects on the eve of the attacks are taken by American satellites, then they end up with Ukrainian DRGs, which then, for example, from a 60mm mortar from a distance of 3-4 km by jeepies and aiming applications in the tablet very accurately and quickly fire at these objects.
    It's time to do something with the satellites and / or stop open storage of ammunition. It is better to identify and destroy both at the same time, well, and destroy them by all available means.
  10. +2
    10 August 2022 11: 41
    The aviation mess began when one of the Wright brothers stole the other's pliers. It’s funny to even hear about the partisan movement, there could well have been sabotage.
    In general, sadly, the explosion of any modern ammunition is a much more natural thing than not an explosion. Alas, this is so, you can not trample against the laws of nature.
  11. -3
    10 August 2022 11: 58
    He overcame something a little too much among the Selyuks, for months "SVO" - GV on the outskirts. All according to plan?
  12. -1
    10 August 2022 12: 13
    What is your evidence?
    And there is no official actual final statement of the chiefs.
  13. 0
    10 August 2022 12: 23
    And how to count a strike from an UAV?
    1. 0
      10 August 2022 17: 03
      UAVs would be detected. Yes, and the consequences are some Homeric.
  14. +1
    10 August 2022 13: 22
    The UAV operator who dropped the bomb on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet hasn’t been found yet, has it? What, in this case, would prevent him from repeating the same thing at the airfield? Considering what a mess is going on in the Black Sea Fleet, there would be nothing surprising in this. There are thoughts that the BDK of Saratov in the port of Berdyansk could also be attacked by a UAV. You don't need any missiles. Launched a simple Chinese drone with a grenade from 2-5 km and dropped it into the hold during unloading. Or in the warehouse of air bombs at the airfield. or on the heads of our grief "naval commanders" in Sevastopol .. It is necessary to restore order in the command of the Black Sea Fleet. After all, the latest repeated failures there are simply screaming. After all, they can’t even unambiguously determine the cause of the explosions. And if the reason is not clarified reliably and the perpetrators are not found, then all this will continue to continue .. But nothing just happens.
    1. 0
      10 August 2022 14: 10
      BDK Saratov, on the site they said that when retreating, marinate the pump, but they didn’t check it
  15. -2
    10 August 2022 13: 46
    Look carefully at the photo: two simultaneous identical explosions at a distance from each other. It's definitely not negligence. A volley of two missiles or undermining mines from one source. The second is unlikely, such objects are well guarded. What are they shooting with, but with what? Directed beam of energy from space in the range invisible to the eye?
    1. +1
      10 August 2022 17: 07
      Quote: Sergey3
      Look carefully at the photo: two simultaneous identical explosions at a distance from each other.

      This is a photo of the explosions already during the fire - to the right of the explosions, the smoke has already stretched far beyond the boundaries of the frame.
      And you can believe in the version of negligence - this is the Air Force. Moreover, this is not the first such incident in Saki - in 2017, local personnel practically repeated the beginning of the "fire at Forrestal":
      As it was established by the court, on October 1 of the 2017, military technicians controlled the technical condition of aviation weapons, including two X-29TD missiles. In violation of the work schedule, they did not check the serviceability of the check mechanisms of one of the missiles by supplying current, which in turn led to the activation of the squibs.
      The Kh-29TD guided missile took off, demolished the gate and part of the hangar wall along the way, destroyed other equipment and the second missile.
      1. -1
        11 August 2022 05: 04
        Fresh satellite photos appeared, obvious craters from explosions that do not coincide with heaps of boxes of ammunition, nothing lay there in the previous image, the difference between the images is several hours. Aircraft burned down in different parts of the airfield at the same time, 7-8 pieces of craters from explosions of 4 pieces, boxes of ammunition burned down in a couple of places, in the rest they remained. Judging by the photo, the simultaneous arrival of at least 4 Himers missiles, hello to our echeloned air defense !!! I don't know how to post a photo here, I can't.
        P.s. the very fact of carefully shooting multiple times from space speaks for itself that this is not an accident.
        So you can downvote me further, mister hat thrower. Campaign soon we will count the holes in the Crimean bridge, and there they will appear on Red Square if you don’t answer painfully and adequately to arrogance ...
        1. -1
          11 August 2022 10: 31
          Quote: Sergey3
          Fresh satellite photos appeared, obvious craters from explosions that do not coincide with heaps of boxes of ammunition, nothing lay there in the previous image, the difference between the images is several hours.

          Scattering of ammunition when neighbors are blown up, followed by detonation when falling. Any fire at the art warehouse is an example of this - ammunition even reaches nearby villages.
          Quote: Sergey3
          P.s. the very fact of carefully shooting multiple times from space speaks for itself that this is not an accident.

          This is a common reconnaissance job - tracking all enemy airfields in a conflict zone. It is in our country that images from space are still perceived as something out of the ordinary, used only on special occasions. And in the West, with their satellite constellations, this is already a routine. sad
          Quote: Sergey3
          Campaign soon we will count the holes in the Crimean bridge, and there they will appear on Red Square if you don’t answer painfully and adequately to arrogance ...

          What is the correct answer? Otherwise, it is constantly demanded, but no one can clearly explain - what is an adequate response in case of an NWO against a country with external control? Where to hit? By Bankova? So the puppeteers will simply remove the broken clown from the threads and pick up a new one, since those who wish cling to the streams in bulk. Decision centers? So they are in Brussels and Washington.
          1. -1
            11 August 2022 15: 12
            What is an adequate response? It is not Ukraine that is fighting against us, but the United States and Britain. The "trigger" is pulled by their citizens, and orders are given by their leaders from the United States and Britain. In this case, beating Ukrainians for what they have done is the same as if you were bitten by a neighbor's dog, and you beat your cat in response! It burns and explodes on the territory of Russia, which means that in response it should burn and explode on the territory of the United States and Britain, and nothing less. The cruiser Moscow sank, which means that the British cruiser should go to the bottom just as unprovenly! Only then will they calm down when they receive an answer that is unacceptable to them and understand that the answer will be inevitable in any case!
  16. +1
    10 August 2022 14: 53
    But I don't believe in coincidence either.
  17. -1
    12 August 2022 06: 28
    From the fact that these are not Ukrainians, what, it became easier?