Japan simulated possible scenarios for responding to China during an attack on Taiwan
Japanese Ministry of Defense building
The growing tension around Taiwan after the visit to the island of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi seriously worried Japan, the closest military-political partner and ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. Back in 2021, a group of senior officers from the Japan Self-Defense Forces began modeling Tokyo's response to a PRC attack on Taiwan, should one occur.
The simulation involved MPs from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and former high-ranking officers of the Japan Self-Defense Forces. Among the guests is former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, who served as prime minister. The participants in the simulation, which had the character of a kind of game, considered several scenarios for the possible reaction of the Japanese government.
One of the modeling options is political instability in both Taiwan and China. In China, dissatisfaction with the rule of President Xi Jinping is allegedly growing. Taiwan's independence movement is on the rise.
The scenario sees fishing boats from mainland China heading for the Senkaku Islands, which are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China. There is a collision with a Japanese Coast Guard patrol vessel. In Taiwan, there are systemic failures in banks and other institutions at this time. Anti-government forces stage large-scale protests in the island's capital, Taipei. China then launches missile strikes on Taiwan.
Against the backdrop of these events, a meeting of the National Security Council of Japan is being held. Its participants imitated US coordination actions and organized meetings between the foreign and defense ministers of the two states, as well as their leaders.
The National Security Council of Japan recognized the provocation on the Senkaku Islands as an armed act of aggression against Japan. The rocket attack on Taiwan has also been classified as an armed attack on a third country that endangers Japan's survival. Accordingly, Japan has the right to collective self-defence.
Then two scenarios were worked out - the evacuation of civilians in Japan and a possible reaction to the use of nuclear weapons by China. weapons. The first scenario was a request from the Ministry of Defense to the government to quickly look into the situation.
However, Onodera, who played the role of the country's prime minister in the simulation, said that relations with China could collapse if the government makes a harsh statement. The main task in this situation is the evacuation of the Japanese from other states, including from China itself, as well as Taiwan.
It is assumed that similar game simulations of various critical situations will be repeated in the future. Allied relations with the United States create many risks for Japan. Indeed, in the event of a real confrontation with China, the consequences for the Japanese side could be catastrophic.
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