Threats to my Motherland. Six hours from the war

Remember the red lines

A little over a year ago, my detailed alarming forecast was published on the web pages of the Military Review “What is at the border of my homeland”… For many readers, the forecast was not so much frightened, but was perceived as too pessimistic. However, it began to come true simply with eerie accuracy and speed.

If Union Belarus finally quieted down at the beginning of 2022, then Kazakhstan almost immediately flared up, and in Afghanistan, and nearby, with the departure of the Americans, everything became much more complicated. And soon it rumbled already in Ukraine, although now Donbass and Lugansk region can be considered Ukraine.

These days, flipping through news agenda on the Internet, we constantly meet lines about the downed, destroyed, killed and neutralized, and this is not somewhere there ... in Israel, but very close to our country's borders, just some six hours away from Moscow. There is a special operation.

Last year, we all vigorously discussed the withdrawal of NATO coalition forces from Afghanistan and assumed a possible escalation of the situation in the Ukrainian direction. We considered options for the development of the situation in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan), as well as in the republics of Transcaucasia (Armenia, Azerbaijan) and Turkey's influence on them.

They discussed NATO expansion, the Baltic countries and threats in the northwest, and the Northern Sea Route. They had in mind that Russia's consistent steps to oppose NATO's eastward expansion have been absolutely ignored since 1998 due to the usual amateurism of opponents.

And finally, in December 2021, a letter of guarantees from Russia, sent to Western “partners”, and the chess game (1) sparkled with new colors: the pieces on the board began to move faster, the players no longer think about decisions in the usual measured atmosphere, annoying mistakes are made by everyone players.

The first move was in Kazakhstan, and Russia's response, as you know, surprised everyone with its effectiveness (even in Russia), but today, unfortunately, Western curators do not stop trying to rock Kazakhstan according to the Ukrainian scenario.

Of course, with the use of social networks (the so-called "Kazakh nationalists" with posts about the letters Z, Victory, etc., aimed at changing the behavior of the masses), and the multi-vector policy of the leadership of Kazakhstan (as in Yugoslavia, and recently in Belarus ) will still haunt everyone in Russia and Kazakhstan in the future. Please understand that the patterns of action for "color revolutions" have not changed for 30 years, and there are many more sources of managing protests.

A week after the events in Kazakhstan, a frenzied news pumping of the Western electorate “about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine” begins, mixed with fiction and lies (drain, leak or plan). And again, Russia did not respond as in Ossetia, but preventively thwarted plans for an invasion and entered the game already on its own rules. Let me remind you that before that there was a meeting of the elites under the cameras and the conclusion of agreements on the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics.

so many why

In principle, the goals of the operation are designated by the Supreme Commander, and it makes no sense to discuss the tasks because of the abundance of information on radio and television screens, various Internet resources. In a chess game, the present is hidden under apparent intentions and vice versa. Therefore, the questions of who, what and when will be left for the initiated. I will try to formulate for myself the answers to the question why.

- Why war?

We all remember the axiom of Karl von Clausewitz that “war is the continuation of politics by other means”, and a young state (as we were taught in the 90s) is obliged to defend the right to defend its interests, including by military means. If the state does not have its own interests, then the state as such, believe me, also does not exist.

- Why now?

The answer to this question lies in different planes, but definitely not in the strategic field: before the sowing season, before the beginning of green grass, before slush, before heat, before harvesting, etc. And we can confidently say about preventive offensive actions, because There is data, and the Western hysteria in January-February (2) indirectly confirmed this.

- Why so long?

As a rule, here the answer sounds from the message - everything is according to plan. But nevertheless we will try to voice the problems, they are there. Rolling into the NVO and not being in the trenches, destroyed buildings, but receiving only the official picture, I can say for sure that this is a different war. No longer the actions that were inherent in the domestic army in our old and newest stories. Tactics and methods of warfare are changing before our eyes. The Queen of the Fields is back in her place in interaction with the new capabilities of the UAV.

In recent decades, the concept of the world economy (cooperation, globalization) has already taken shape, and after the 90s Russia entered this world as a raw material appendage for highly developed countries. Alas and ah, but this role was destined for us for many years to come. The printed candy wrappers were solemnly handed over to us for the sold resources, which, according to the Constitution, belong to us, but in reality are already planned for consumption there, in the West, in the world where the light elves live.

Our oilmen, miners and metallurgists are digging in shit (sorry for the bad manners), extracting and processing our resources, and receive someone else's candy wrappers, finished products or, again, someone else's means of production (let's call it beads).

Don't chase history

Oh, it was a very wonderful economic story of fooling the Indians for beads. Young elite Indians were enlightened at their special universities and in Indian educational institutions according to Western programs, Western teachers taught and enlightened how to extract and sell their resources for beads. But more on that below.

But some time passed, and for some reason the Indians already wanted something more in their own country (including printing their own beads), and now the entire enlightened West (all the bright-faced elves) is teaching Russia (and is not yet bombing ), how to love their green beads (3), through sanctions.

I look forward with rapture when they nevertheless openly go to Russia as in 1240, 1812 or 1941 for resources, hiding behind slogans to protect democracy and liberate citizens from Putin.

Russia's entry into its currency (backed by gold and resources) has devalued all those beads that the West has been printing or producing all these years, and opened up the real world, not painted. It turns out that resources (energy, water, gold, iron, grain, etc.) are vital for the existence of any state, and services (for example, fashionable haircuts of Indians) are still secondary.

There is understanding and justification, but the leaders of (all) tribes and peoples with their entourage are already accustomed to the old way of life and do not want to change the usual foreign beads for their own, and it’s scary: what if their Indians will be well-fed and beautiful and will not want to work anymore. And how many beads have been exported from us abroad and are frozen assets in banks, suddenly the beads will be thawed there in 100 years, and everything will be as always.

And so on. The “elite”, the lured 5th column (some artists) in a panic “quieted” in the corners of Russia or fled, saving their capital and hoping that all this would end in some kind of blitzkrieg, and the assets would again be liquid.

Estimates of soldiers and officers (participants) are always subjectively angry and tied to a specific point in the event, but ... let's look at the whole: troops are moving forward, equipment is methodically destroyed, including the enemy, settlements are being liberated, the "spirit" of the military there is and there is an idea to liberate their land. Unfortunately, there are also irrecoverable losses.

But still, forgive me S. K. Sh., as I see the roughness from the outside: inter-clan interaction of troops, online interaction with Roskosmos, speed of decision-making at the strategic (tactical level), personnel, average age of military leadership, communications , control systems, reconnaissance and target designation, high-precision weapon, unmanned systems, tactical quadrocopters in the platoon-company link, analysis of enemy actions with adaptation to suit oneself, search for new management decisions, etc. Military thought (science) already needed to run yesterday and faster than the actions of troops in Ukraine, and not catch up with history .

Information pressure on our society can generally be considered as a separate type of hybrid war, and the fake method (CNN, BBC) of presenting information to Western society is like a long-forgotten old one (4) (Goebbels is alive). It is clear that direct rabid lies do not suit “our psychotype”, but something must be done with this and be able to “fight” in this field as well. And we must still admit that in the virtual world we still do not have time to respond to challenges.

On all four sides

Returning to the usual threats on the border this year: here the picture does not change, and the players advance their pawns in the usual format.

Japan with its island history, will continue to advance the agenda directly dictated by its big friend. There are no options here, Japan is not an independent entity in this world, and therefore the tension in this region will be constant, as long as it is beneficial to the “big brother”.

China and Mongolia I won't describe it, because here the traditional game of reconnaissance at the border takes place, and minor seasonal border incidents are resolved at the level of border detachments.

middle Asia this year he will live under the sign of Afghanistan, and he will predict all his actions in this vein. The Kazakh events, of course, affected this region, and all interested players took note of this, and nevertheless they will continue to “swing protest activity” in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to destabilize the political situation and divert Russia from the western direction - through social networks, their agents of influence, the lured elite, etc.

Transcaucasian republics are under the influence of Turkey (the United States through NGOs in Georgia, Armenia), so the Karabakh conflict will smolder for a long time.

Ukrainian direction it is not possible to evaluate, since there are no initial data, and the remoteness from decision-making centers also affects. From a personal understanding, it can be assumed that the actions of the enemy (after the end of the SVO) will be reconnaissance and sabotage in nature (Poland after the revolution, Ukraine after 1945) with cruel terror of the population and authorities, together with law enforcement officers. All critical infrastructure will also be targeted.

Western-bred political elite The Baltic states it will be expected to threaten Russia with a rusty gun from dug out trenches for shooting while standing on horseback, as well as blocking ports, railways, etc. The intelligence game is traditionally active and is nothing new in this direction.

Arctic from the North this year is definitely not going to threaten us, unless the cataclysm on the Suez Canal happens again.

Last year, no matter how we cursed on the Internet, we still remember it as a bygone time. This year we look forward to some reason autumn.

Everything passes, and this will pass (5) ...

Notes:
1. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives - Zbigniew Brzezinski, 1997
2. On August 08.08.2008, XNUMX, the Georgian attack on South Ossetia began with a massive shelling of settlements in Ossetia by the Georgian side, but was covered by the Western media as a Russian attack on Georgia for a week. Then the topic left the information field (the information was presented very distortedly).
3. Military operation in Libya and the elimination of Gaddafi. The reason for the conflict is indicated, among other things, the unwillingness to sell oil for dollars (Gaddafi expressed the idea of ​​​​creating a pan-African currency, in contrast to the dollar, backed by gold).
4. “The more monstrous the lie, the more readily the crowd believes in it”, “a lie repeated a thousand times becomes the truth” - J. Goebbels.
5. Parable of Solomon about the ring.