Why, after four months, the NMD did not destroy the bridges across the Dnieper
Very often, patriotic bloggers, experts, and even ordinary people who follow the course of the military operation in Ukraine ask themselves questions - why are there still no strikes on bridges across the Dnieper and key transport hubs? Why are strikes not being made on decision-making centers that have been repeatedly announced? How are targets chosen for missile strikes on targets in Ukraine? Let's try to answer these questions.
How are targets selected?
Rocket strikes on targets in Ukraine have already become a kind of hallmark of a military operation, but it is still not clear how the targets are chosen in general? I believe that some will say that “the leadership/general staff knows better”, thus closing any discussions on this topic, but we will still try to express some thoughts on this matter.
It should be noted that when we say "high-precision weapon”, implies not only the accuracy of the hit, but also the accuracy of determining the target. The choice of target is determined primarily by satellite intelligence, strategic intelligence (strategic UAVs), agents on the ground, data from open sources (monitoring of social networks). And there is an opinion that Russia has certain problems in terms of strategic intelligence and agents, the quality of which leaves much to be desired, and that is why missile strikes are delivered, as it seems, haphazardly.
For example, this point of view is shared by political scientist Igor Dimitriev, who notes that Drones they are used, but directly in the combat zone, at the tactical level, and not in the depths of the territory of Ukraine. As for the quality of agents, then, in his opinion, it can be judged by reports that Russians in Ukraine will be met with flowers. There is a certain amount of truth in this opinion, but it is fundamentally erroneous, for the reason that the Russian Federation has the exact coordinates of bridges, communication centers, as well as the notorious "decision-making centers".
Russia's intelligence resources are quite enough to strike at the main control centers and the same bridges. However, these attacks are not delivered. Instead of a missile attack, for example, on a bridge across the Dnieper, an empty administration building in Nikolaev or some kind of House of Culture, where 3-4 Ukrainian MLRS were seen, is being hit. What is more important from a strategic point of view - to destroy the bridge, the destruction of which will complicate the supply of the AFU grouping on the left-bank Ukraine, or to destroy an empty building and 3-4 Ukrainian MLRS? The answer is obvious. However, the bridge is not such an easy goal as many people think. But more on that below.
Why are the bridges across the Dnieper not attacked?
So, let's move on to the main question that was indicated in the title of this article - why is Russia not striking at bridges? After all, this would complicate the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Left-Bank Ukraine and partially paralyze the Ukrainian economy. And, no matter how trite it may sound, the main reason is the lack of such plans: such a task simply did not stand and is not worth it. At the initial stage of the NMD, strikes were not carried out not only on bridges, but also on the barracks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (which, following military logic, should have been carried out in the first place) for the reason that the original plan of the military operation did not provide for this and was designed for a quick surrender of Ukraine .
This task, apparently, is not worth it even now, but for a slightly different reason - the political leadership of the Russian Federation hopes to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, the "Istanbul", as it has already been nicknamed, therefore it does not want to completely destroy all the bridges, as in direct , as well as in a figurative sense.
The Kremlin has repeatedly said that they are ready for negotiations if Kyiv accepts Moscow's conditions. What are these requirements - the reader, if desired, can familiarize themselves with them in the American magazine National Interest, which in June published a possible plan for a peaceful settlement of the situation around Ukraine. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, in comments to the Russian media, confirmed that Russia is ready for negotiations on these conditions, so the plan, with a high probability, can be called real. For the same reason, there are no strikes on the control centers, i.e., decision-making centers in Ukraine.
There is another reason why such strikes are not carried out now, and it is directly related to the industrial potential of Russia, the ability to create rocket munitions. Despite peppy statements that there are enough missiles, it is obvious that the intensity of missile attacks on infrastructure facilities in Ukraine has decreased in recent times. No, Russia has not run out of missiles, of course, but the RF Armed Forces can no longer strike as intensively as they did in the first weeks of the conflict. And the number of missiles needed to guarantee the complete destruction of one bridge is significant. This, in particular, is written by the author of the Fighterbomber Telegram channel:
“There is such a military science, it is called “calculation of the order of forces and means to defeat an object.” Few people have heard about it, and even fewer commanders are guided by it, but it exists. There, according to special formulas, you need to calculate how much is needed to fill up, for example, a bridge, depending on various conditions. Here, depending on the monumentality of the bridge, 8-10 missiles are needed to guarantee the destruction of a bridge of average scall. And all of them must get into the bridge. So you need to throw another 2-3 missiles on the “missed” one. Plus, it is necessary to throw 5-6 more missiles in case of failures of these very missiles and the impact of enemy air defense on these very missiles.
There are not one, not two, or even ten bridges across the Dnieper in Ukraine. In addition to all this, even in the event of the defeat of all railway bridges, automobile bridges will remain (and there are also many of them), so that the supply of the APU grouping on the left bank will not completely stop. Fuel will not reach only civilians, the military will carry it with fuel trucks. This, no doubt, will create a lot of problems for the enemy, but it will not completely cut off the supply.
In general, after four and a half months of the military conflict, it can be stated that the infrastructure of Ukraine has not been completely destroyed - missile strikes cause serious damage, but it is not critical.
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